“同治”还是“同谋”:机构投资者抱团与 企业违约风险

文章以2009—2020年沪深A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了机构投资者抱团对企业违约风险的影响及其内在机理。研究发现,机构投资者抱团可以降低企业违约风险。影响机理的检验证实,机构投资者抱团通过降低信息不对称、缓解融资约束和降低经营风险对企业违约风险产生影响。进一步从信息、资源和风险的视角探讨两者关系的异质性发现,机构投资者抱团对企业违约风险的治理效应主要体现在信息不对称程度较高、资源获取较难和风险较高的样本中。文章的发现有助于深化机构投资者抱团的经济后果与企业违约风险影响因素的研究,也为进一步完善机构投资者的制度设计、持续优化公司的内外部治理结构,防范化解企业违约风险提供了参考依据。     

Asymmetric Learning from Prices and Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Drift

Motivated by research in psychology and experimental economics, we assume that investors update their beliefs about an asset's value upon observing the price, but only when the price clearly reveals that others obtained private information that differs from their own private information. Specifically, we assume that investors learn from the price of an asset in an asymmetric manner—they learn from the price if they observe good (bad) private information and the price is worse (better) than what is justified based on public information alone. We show that asymmetric learning from an asset's price leads to post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and that it generates arbitrage opportunities that are less attractive than alternative explanations of PEAD. In addition, our model predicts that PEAD will be concentrated in earnings surprises that are not dominated by accruals, and it also predicts that earnings response coefficients will decline in the magnitude of the earnings surprises.     

“Post‐Truth,” “Alternative Facts” and “Fakenomics”

South African companies are accused of hoarding profits to accumulate large amounts of “idle” cash, as well as of being the perpetrators of massive illegal capital flight. This paper argues that much of the claimed corporate cash is either offshore or belongs to banks. It reminds that bank deposits increase when companies borrow, not when they retain profits. It shows, too, that measures of massive capital flight actually reflect data errors. Exaggerating, through faulty methodology the extent to which companies have cash or may be involved in illegal capital flight is unhelpful. It exacerbates already‐fraught government‐business relations, and complicates the search for solutions to South Africa's economic problems.     

Building the <Emphasis Type="Italic">New</Emphasis> New Orleans: Foundation and NGO Power

Most accounts of organized philanthropy’s response to the Katrina disaster portray foundations as either providing critical resources in the absence of federal, state, and municipal leadership, or as mildly ineffective and uncommitted grantmakers with little understanding of local nonprofit and community needs. Through an in-depth case study of the three largest regional foundations and two largest foundations established as a direct response to Hurricane Katrina, I examine the overall role of philanthropy in the post-Katrina New Orleans, including the history, leadership, grantmaking practices, and ideology of the largest and most influential foundations. Far from being saviors in the absence of state leadership, nor bumbling and ineffective grantmakers, it is shown that dominant foundations and major NGOs have proven very effective in leading the local growth coalition’s opportunistic response to the disaster.     

R&amp;D Subsidies and Foreign Direct Investment

We devise a model in which domestic firms do applied R&D, which can be subsidized by the government, and foreign firms with superior technology can enter in the domestic market. Foreign Direct Investment can act as a substitute of subsidies to improve domestic R&D, the share of domestic leading firms and consumption. Relatively closed economies may benefit from R&D subsidization while relatively open economies may not. For relatively low growth of the technological frontier, it is optimal to subsidize R&D and close the economy to foreign investment but the opposite happens for relatively high growth. Numerical simulations show the economy dynamics after policy experiments.     

Example‐Based Reasoning and Fact‐Weighting Guidance in Accounting Standards

The provision of examples as implementation guidance is pervasive in accounting standards. Prior research has established that preparers engage in “example‐based reasoning,” a tendency to favor the accounting treatment in an example, even when the example does not exactly match the transaction at hand. In this paper, we investigate whether fact‐weighting guidance counteracts this tendency. Such guidance, now found in some accounting standards, indicates whether particular transaction facts are more important than others in determining the appropriate accounting treatment. Using an experiment, we find that fact‐weighting guidance does reduce preparers' tendency to favor the accounting treatment in an example. However, results also suggest that some degree of example‐based reasoning persists even with fact‐weighting guidance, and that preparers are not fully aware of how fact‐weighting guidance affects their judgments. Our findings have practical implications. They suggest to standard setters a potential remedy—namely, fact‐weighting guidance—for the misuse of accounting examples. They also provide insights to accounting preparers regarding how fact‐weighting guidance influences their judgments in ways they may not anticipate.     

‘Stop‐go’ policy and the restriction of postwar British house‐building

From the mid‐1950s to the early 1980s the Treasury and the Bank of England successfully advocated a policy of restricting both private and public sector house‐building, as a key but covert instrument of their wider ‘stop‐go’ macroeconomic policy framework. While the intensity of restrictions varied over the economic cycle, private house‐building was restricted (through limiting mortgage availability) for almost all this period. This was achieved by keeping building society interest rates low relative to other interest rates and thus starving the building society movement of mortgage funds. Mortgage restriction was never publicly discussed and sometimes operated alongside ambitious housing targets and well‐publicized policy initiatives to boost housing demand. This article outlines the evolution of house‐building restriction, together with its impacts on the housing sector and the wider economy. We review the evolution of the policy framework and its consequences, compare the level and stability of British house‐building during this period—historically and relative to other countries—and undertake time‐series econometric analysis of its impacts on both house‐building and house prices. Finally, implications for debates regarding stop‐go policy, Britain's housing problem, and the distributional consequences of government macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

Probability and the synthetic <Emphasis Type="Italic">a Priori</Emphasis>: A reply to block

Conclusion Contrary to Block, the synthetic a priori has little to do with our dispute. My critique of the Austrians is not that their methods are “unscientific,” but that their most distinctive positions are false or overstated. Yet Block’s latest reply does inadvertently make Austrian economics more reasonable. If synthetic a priori claims vary in degree of probability, they can no longer be treated as scientifically superior to empirical claims. Furthermore, while empirically testing absolutely certain synthetic a priori claims is pointless, empirically testing uncertain synthetic a priori claims is not. As is often the case with Austrians, Block is better at criticizing neoclassicals than he is at producing a sound alternative. He is right that most economists do not practice the logical positivism that they preach. He is also correct to maintain that logical positivism is mistaken. However, both of these problems can be resolved if neoclassical economists themselves adopt the Bayesian model of belief formation that they routinely apply to everyone else.     

房地产调控与全要素生产率:“事半功倍”或“事与愿违”

现有研究表明高房价会降低全要素生产率（TFP）,在"稳房价、稳预期"的调控思路下,房地产调控能否缓解高房价对TFP的抑制作用呢？文章构建包含房地产部门和最终产品部门的理论模型,探讨房价和房地产调控对全要素生产率的非对称影响。在实证检验部分,测算2008-2018年152个地级及以上城市的房地产调控强度,采用门槛回归检验房价和房地产调控对全要素生产率的影响,研究结果表明：（1）合理的房价有利于TFP增长,但过高的房价阻碍了TFP增长。（2）房地产调控力度较弱时对TFP的影响为负,房地产调控力度适中时对TFP的影响为正且效果最佳,将房地产调控区分为需求侧调控和供给侧调控,需求侧调控由弱转强时对TFP的影响由负转正,供给侧调控对TFP的影响始终为正。（3）房地产调控通过影响公众房价预期进而对TFP产生影响。     

数字商业生态系统特征：数据控制和数据协调模式比较

数字平台重塑组织间关系形成数字商业生态系统,而数据要素分布模式会影响数字商业生态系统特征。文章选择浙江省和广东省分别作为数据控制模式和数据协调模式的代表,基于数字经济上市企业经营领域与授权发明专利数据,利用社会网络分析法,比较数据控制与数据协调两种模式在产业链整合、数字产业化和产业数字化融合以及数字商业生态系统网络结构上的差异,分析两种模式为提高经济效率所采纳的不同路径。研究发现：无论在何种模式下,民营企业通常选择创新活动频繁、创新风险较高的战略性新兴产业,而国有企业通常参与门槛较高的生产性服务业。数据控制模式是构建数字化营销渠道发挥消费互联网平台用户流量优势,数据协调模式是依托电子信息产业基础发挥工业互联网平台协同制造优势;数据控制模式是纵向一体化产业链整合方式,数据协调模式是水平型产业链整合方式。相较于数据控制模式,数据协调模式下的数字技术与传统产业融合度更高、在产业链上扩散速度更快;数据控制模式下组织网络呈现“垄断”结构,而数据协调模式呈现“区块链”结构;数据控制模式依托于单一平台很难做出全局最优决策部署,数据协调模式在不同领域构建工业互联网平台可能导致跨平台间的数据流动产生困难。消费者需求数据和工业数据高效匹配是两种模式共同演进方向,相较于讨论数据要素最优集中规模,畅通数字平台之间的数据要素流动渠道才是根本。     

R&D intensity and domestic and cross-border M&A of Japanese firms before domestic M&A deregulation

In this paper, we examine the determinants of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Japan prior to the deregulation of domestic M&A transactions. We reveal that firm growth strategies and institutional differences in domestic and cross-border transactions are key determinants of the differences in M&A behavior. Our estimates show that domestic M&A activities are negatively related to research and development (R&D), suggesting that low technology-intensive firms have a tendency to engage in domestic M&A. For cross-border M&A, firm R&D activities have a significant positive effect, implying that a firm's own technology is important for absorbing foreign technology or competing in the host country.