Real options valuation: the new frontier in R&D project evaluation?

The real options approach has recently received growing attention in R&D and Technology Management research. Recent empirical findings by Ellis (1997) and Busby and Pitts (1997) also report growing attention and use in practical investment decisions. However, there is a certain concern about the applicability to a wide range of R&D related problems. The theoretical base behind options valuation is derived from the capital markets and thus assumes market conditions that are closer to the theoretical construct of 'perfect competition' than most other settings. Even under these conditions, several assumptions made and difficulties left are subject to controversial discussions. Of course these problems even gain importance when the R&D environment with its discontinuities and lack of regulation or institutionalized trade is assumed. This paper describes some basic properties of the real options approach and sheds light on existing problems for the application in R&D project evaluation. On the other hand, roads to application of the method are shown using the Geske model of option evaluation. One main goal of the paper is to broaden and deepen the discussion on real option models in R&D and Technology Management, which has in some cases been limited to stressing the advantages of the method rather than reflecting on applicability and concrete way of application of the method.     

What factors of early-stage innovative projects are likely to drive projects’ success? A longitudinal analysis of Korean entrepreneurial firms

Previous studies have identified the factors affecting successful technology commercialization as outcomes of R&D projects. However, most of them have used cross-sectional data, whereas there is a dearth of literature using longitudinal data analysis. Longitudinal analysis is essential for investigating the characteristics of early-stage innovative projects due to the inherent time lag between project evaluation and commercialization. Therefore, this study examines the early-stage project characteristics that can be used as meaningful evaluation criteria for predicting success, particularly in technology commercialization. We collected data on the ex-ante evaluation results and ex-post commercialization results of R&D projects pursued by entrepreneurial firms. We then conducted a logistic regression analysis and identified three market-related factors as significant in driving technology commercialization success in the early stages of technology development: market potential, commercialization plan, and market condition.     

International scientific and technical meetings: why go? who profits?

A growing body of empirical research shows that information which is actually put to use is most often transmitted by personal contact. This article reviews the literature to examine some of the reasons for the importance of personal contact in the transmission of information and then focuses on scientific and technical meetings as an environment designed to facilitate the transmission of information in this way. The review of the literature is included for completeness in Part II of the article. However, it is the foundation on which the empirical research described in Part I is based. Using the author's definition of meeting effectiveness this research shows that the person who is giving the most is also the most effective in gaining and utilizing information.     

Do non‐competition agreements lead firms to pursue risky R&D projects?

This study investigates the impact of non‐competition agreements on the type of R&D activity undertaken by companies. Non‐competition agreements, by reducing outbound mobility and knowledge leakages to competitors, make high‐risk R&D projects relatively more valuable than low‐risk ones. Thus, they induce companies to choose riskier R&D projects, such that corporate inventions are more likely to lie in the tails of the inventions' value distribution (as breakthroughs or failures) and be in novel technological areas. This study uses data about U.S. patent applications from 1990 to 2000 and considers longitudinal variation in the enforcement of non‐compete clauses. The results indicate that in states with stricter enforcement, companies undertake riskier R&D paths than in states that do not enforce non‐compete agreements as strictly. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

China's information superhighway: What is it and who controls it?

This paper focuses on China's telecommunications sector from a national perspective, and summarizes the structure of the country's information superhighway. It then analyzes the changing regulatory and policy framework, and the competition among current and potential players in the market. This leads to a final discussion on the implications and likely outcome - who will control the superhighway in China.     

Convergence between telecommunications and other media: How should regulation adapt?

The paper examines the regulatory issues raised by technological convergence between telecommunications and other media. Market uncertainty for broadband services has gone hand in hand with both uncertainty over how to supply those services and a regulatory framework that will facilitate growth in the sector, ensure a competitive market and provide the necessary protections for consumers and the public. Development of the information market should be determined primarily by market forces. Intervention may be justified but a clear distinction needs to be drawn between regulation in the public interest and regulation to protect against market failure.     

Can cooperation drive the success of suppliers in B2B crowdsourcing innovation projects? A large scale data perspective

Crowdsourcing innovation projects (CIPs), that enterprises outsource the non-core projects to outside individuals or organizations for innovation, are critical forms for business to business (B2B) innovative service collaboration. Based on value network theory, this paper investigates whether cooperation is a critical influencer of supplier performance and examines how suppliers in CIPs can achieve and maximize value capturing under the customer value dominant condition. Large-scale data is collected from >110,000 CIPs suppliers from 2010 to August 2018 on Kaggle, one of the most well-known crowdsourcing platforms. According to econometric calculation results: 1) Suppliers' predominant capabilities and resources contribute to their workforce and financial performance improvement. 2) Excessive competition intensity has a negative impact on suppliers' performance. 3) The cooperation between suppliers is extremely important for their performance. More detailed, the accumulation of cooperation experience, the increase of partners and the heterogeneity of members in the organization have positive impact on suppliers' workforce and financial performance. The results demonstrate that for suppliers in the CIPs platform, cooperative is more optimal than competitive. The cooperation is more significant when the needs of customers are gaining more and more attention. Therefore, suppliers should explore a more flexible way of cooperation to achieve value capture. Subsequently the value balance between demanders and suppliers can be achieved.     

R&D Partnerships and Innovation Performance: Can There Be too Much of a Good Thing?

R&D collaboration facilitates the pooling of complementary skills, learning from the partner as well as the sharing of risks and costs. Research therefore stresses the positive relationship between collaborative R&D and innovation performance. Fewer studies address the potential drawbacks of collaborative R&D. Collaborative R&D comes at the cost of coordination and monitoring, requires knowledge disclosure, and involves the risk of opportunistic behavior by the partners. Thus, while for lower collaboration intensities the net gains can be high, costs may start to outweigh benefits if firms perform a higher share of their innovation projects collaboratively. For a sample of 2735 firms located in Germany and active in a broad range of manufacturing and service sectors, this study finds that increasing the share of collaborative R&D projects in total R&D projects is associated with a higher probability of product innovation and with a higher market success of new products. While this confirms previous findings on the gains for innovation performance, the results also show that collaboration has decreasing and even negative returns on product innovation if its intensity increases above a certain threshold. Thus, the relationship between collaboration intensity and innovation follows an inverted‐U shape and, on average, costs start to outweigh benefits if a firm pursues more than about two‐thirds of its R&D projects in collaboration. This result is robust to conditioning market success to the introduction of new products and to accounting for the selection into collaborating. This threshold is, however, contingent on firm characteristics. Smaller and younger as well as resource‐constrained firms benefit from relatively higher collaboration intensities. For firms with higher collaboration complexities in terms of different partners and different stages of the R&D process at which collaboration takes place, returns start to decrease already at lower collaboration intensities.     

The Paradox of Openness: How Product and Patenting Experience Affect R&D Sourcing in China?

External R&D sourcing may help firms compete in an environment characterized by rapid technological changes. Yet, prior studies have produced conflicting findings on how a firm's technological experience affects the extent to which the firm engages in external R&D sourcing. Although many highlight that firms with extensive technological experience are equipped with more technological knowledge, collaborative skills, and absorptive capacity, encouraging greater levels of external R&D, others suggest the opposite due to potential exchange hazards and partnership conflicts. Adopting an external partner's perspective, the current study reconsiders this “paradox of openness” by analyzing how a focal firm's product experience and patenting experience affect an external partner's tendency to provide external R&D services to the focal firm. Specifically, this study explore how a focal firm's knowledge protectiveness and tacitness embedded in its product and patenting experience influences the external partners' motivation for knowledge transfer. This study predicts that a firm's product experience increases the focal firm's external R&D sourcing because it provides high levels of knowledge tacitness and external openness and can encourage external partners to share and exchange knowledge with the focal firm. In contrast, a firm's patenting experience decreases the focal firm's external R&D sourcing because it denotes knowledge explicitness and protectiveness and may discourage external partners to share and exchange knowledge with the focal firm. This study further predicts that patenting experience has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between product experience and external R&D sourcing. Using a data set of 575 high‐tech firms in China, this study finds support for our predictions. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the knowledge‐based view and technology entrepreneurship in emerging markets.     

How do networks and learning drive M&As? An institutional comparison between China and the United States

What drives mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in different institutional environments? This article builds on the resource dependence perspective and argues that networks, learning, and institutions represent three building blocks that can enhance our understanding of the drivers behind M&As. Specifically, we consider firms as learning actors embedded in network relations and influenced by institutional development, and compare and contrast firms' acquisition activities across the United States and China. Our findings show that there are indeed important learning and network factors that lead to M&As. More interestingly, the impact of such learning and network factors varies sharply across countries with different market‐based institutions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany

Increases in cereals production risk are commonly related to increases in weather risk. We analyze weather-induced changes in wheat yield volatility as a systemic weather risk in Germany. We disentangle, however, the relative impacts of inputs and weather on regional yield volatility. For this purpose we augment a production function with phenologically aggregated weather variables. Increasing volatility can be traced back to weather changes only in some regions. On average, inputs explain 49% of the total actual wheat yield volatility, while weather explains 43%. Models with only weather variables deliver biased but reasonable approximations for climate impact research.     

Risk,standard deviation,and expected value: when should an individual start social security?

In choosing when to start collecting Social Security, the differences in expected net present values (NPVs) are small—but the corresponding standard deviations are not. Starting earlier is less risky. The case analyzed is single individuals in the U.S. system, but the methodology can be applied to couples and to the systems of other nations. Considering risk and return together places Social Security in the same risk/return framework as other capital investments. Behavioral, situational, and qualitative factors that often dominate decisions on when to start are linked with quantitative approaches to longevity risk and mortality risk.     

Re-charging the costs of R&D: when is it appropriate?

A scheme of recharging the costs of individual R&D projects to internal ‘customers’ in a company is described and its possible advantages discussed. A particular case, recharging in a nationalized industry, is examined and it is concluded that most of the advantages would be difficult to realize; other measures, more suited to individual circumstances, are likely to improve the effectiveness of such corporate R&D. The discussion is generalized to consider which methods of R&D funding are appropriate to different contexts.     

Who should own a renewable technology? Ownership theory and an application

We investigate the market implications of ownership of a new low-cost production technology. We relate our theoretical findings to measure the impact of renewable energy penetration into electricity markets and examine how the ownership of renewable capacity changes market outcomes (prices, outputs, emissions). As current public policies influence renewable energy ownership, this research provides useful insights for policy makers. We show how and why ownership of renewable capacity matters when there is market power in energy market. We apply our findings to the wholesale electricity market in Ontario, Canada, to analyze the impact of different ownership structures for wind capacity expansions. Using both simulation analysis and empirical analysis of market data, we show that the price-reducing effects of wind expansion are smaller when a larger strategic firm owns new wind capacity. Lastly, we show that the effect of wind ownership on emissions depends on both the amount of generation displaced by wind output and the emissions rate of displaced generation.     

The needs of R&D professionals in their first and second managerial appointments: are they being met?

This study sets out to examine the practices of research professionals who are undertaking a research management role for the first or second time. Most of these managers are in their late twenties to middle thirties and are usually employed as team leaders.
R&D personnel early in their managerial career are served badly by the innovation literature. Much of this literature focuses on describing the behaviour of the participants rather than providing information with the potential to contribute to their managerial practice. A major objective of this study is to provide some messages for academics and others of how they may contribute better to the managerial function of first and second time R&D managers in the 21st century.     

High rural population density Africa – What are the growth requirements and who participates?

A large and increasing proportion of agricultural growth in Africa must come from continuous gains in land productivity in areas of high population density and hence with already relatively high yields. What that requires is analogous to the green revolution in Asia. Several features differentiate the African situation. Those include greater diversity in cropping pattern including a historically larger and more widespread tropical commodity export sector. The physical infrastructure in rural Africa is far inferior to that of most Asian countries. While the greater diversity of agriculture calls for a larger and more diverse institutional structure the reality is that the research systems, the ancillary education systems to spread innovation and the rural financial systems are generally greatly inferior to those of Asia at the beginning of the green revolution. Ethiopia’s record of a steady six to seven percent growth for agriculture and nearly halving of rural poverty demonstrates that with the right policies and investments a very poor country starting with poor physical and institutional infrastructure can bring a major contribution from agriculture growth to increased GDP and reduced poverty. As in Asia, the bulk of accelerated agricultural growth will come from small commercial farmers. They have sufficient farm income to reach or exceed the poverty level. Those are farms with, depending on the country, as little as 0.75 hectares to a few tens of hectares of land. They comprise up to half the rural population and produce on the order of 70–80 percent of agricultural output. They are in general not poor. The poor have inadequate land to reach the poverty level, initially with much underemployment, and with substantial non-farm employment. The primary driver of poverty reduction is the small commercial farmer spending on the order of half of increased income on nontradable, employment intensive goods and services from the rural non-farm sector.     

Who explores further? Evidence on R&D outsourcing from the survey of research and development

Building off the resource‐based view and the knowledge‐based view, our study aims to examine determinants of firms’ R&D outsourcing, using annually‐conducted firm‐level survey data of Japanese R&D companies from 1984–2012. This survey allows us to measure strategic R&D outsourcing, isolated from those more for cost‐reducing, such as prototyping, testing and inspecting. The results corroborate the argument of complementarity in scale between internal R&D and R&D outsourcing. We also find that firms employing more doctorate holders and diversifying in knowledge spaces tend to make more use of R&D outsourcing. This study sheds light on firms’ absorptive capacity, associated both with higher‐order R&D human capital and diversified knowledge spaces, as determinants of R&D outsourcing.     

Socio-technical analysis of Korea's broadband convergence network: Big plans,big projects,big prospects?

The goal of this study is to investigate the policy objectives of the broadband convergence network (BcN) and the realization of objectives. The Korean government launched the BcN project with the objective of converting Korea into an information society with ubiquitous broadband convergence for the advancement of growth and productivity. Based on content analysis of the policy documents and the literature related to BcN, this paper draws on the socio-technical framework for interpreting the data. Findings in this study suggest that, despite excellent technological innovation and proactive drive, uncertainty still remains with respect to how the BcN has evolved and its impact on the new telecom ecology to date.     

Friend or foe? The effects of managerial politics on NPD team communication,collaboration and project success

Much existing work on new product development (NPD) team integration takes an economically rational perspective, specifying appropriate systems, structures and interactions. Few studies however have explored the effects of politics on working relationships between technically trained managers (TTMs; e.g., research and development managers) and marketing managers (MMs) during NPD. Our results reveal that intra-team politics has positive and negative effects on TTM/MM communication. This is important because communication positively influences collaboration and NPD success. Moreover, the effects of communication variables on these two outcome variables differ depending on whether one is a TTM or MM.