The Theory of Raising Rivals’ Costs and Evidence from the International Labour Organisation

The strategy of raising rivals’ costs may be adopted by firms in a market, a cartel or interest group or by political majorities in a federal state or international organisation. We provide a first survey and formal exposition of the theory and present examples for each of these applications. In an international cross‐section analysis using unpublished data for the period 1980–98, we explain roll‐call voting of government representatives in ILO committees drafting international labour standards. Using four different indices of regulation and country samples, we find that governments vote for tighter standards if labour regulation is high in their own country. Our evidence rejects the hypothesis of Brown, Deardorff and Stern that countries exporting low‐skill labour‐intensive products vote for ILO standards in order to restrict their own supply and increase their terms of trade. As expected, left‐party governments vote more in line with labour unions than other governments do. Domestic regulation has a considerably larger effect on voting if the convention in question would raise labour costs in ILO member states. This indicates that highly regulated countries try to raise others’ costs.     

Structural Reforms and Labour‐market Outcomes: International Panel‐data Evidence

This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro‐level labour‐market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labour force participation rates. Together, these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labour market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, to our knowledge, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross‐country macro‐level on labour‐market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labour‐market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country's structural reform year, we run fixed‐effects ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labour‐market outcomes. Overall, the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labour. Redistributive effects in favour of workers, along the lines of the Stolper‐Samuelson effect, may be at work.     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South‐East Asia

East and South‐East Asia will face major demographic changes over the next few decades with many countries’ labour forces starting to decline, while others experience higher labour force growth as populations and/or participation rates increase. A well‐managed labour migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labour shortages in some East Asia–Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labour to provide migrant workers who will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. This paper examines such migration policy options using a global dynamic economic simulation approach and finds that allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real GDP over the 2007–50 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.     

An Explanation of the International Variation in the Prevalence of Child Labour

It is hypothesized that the institutional acceptability of child labor will be more prevalent when the other members of a society gain from its use. Therefore, the cross‐country variation in the prevalence of child labor depends on the degree to which child labor affects the welfare of the remaining members of a society. It is demonstrated theoretically that the non‐child‐labor factors gain from child labor when the economy is closed. As an economy becomes more open to international trade, those gains diminish and even turn negative as the size of the economy increases. Child labor will not exist in capital abundant countries since, in them, child labor makes the non‐child‐labor factors worse off. It is shown empirically that the cross‐country prevalence of child labor falls with increases in a nation's per capita income, its openness to trade, and its economic size. It is argued that trade sanctions, as a remedy for child labor, may be counter‐productive since an open economy reduces the benefits of child labor to the other members of a society, and thereby reduces the society's incentive to allow child labor. The model also demonstrates that the economic changes brought on by democracy undermine the practice of child labor.     

US immigration policies and dynamics of cross‐border workforce in agriculture

Given the contentious debate on immigration, this study develops a dynamic model to analyse the effects of stricter border and domestic enforcement and streamlining the guest‐worker programme on cross‐border migration from Mexico, employment and production in US labour‐intensive and Mexican agriculture and the US and Mexican wage rates. The model incorporates labour‐leisure decisions of Mexican workers and labour market dynamics and linkages. The findings show stricter border and domestic controls exacerbate the labour‐shortage problems and reduce the US agricultural production. Streamlining the guest‐worker programme provides a steady supply of farm workers and has negligible impact on the US wage.     

The Regulation of Professional Migration: Insights from the Health and IT Sectors in ASEAN

This paper develops several indicators to measure the extent and depth of rules governing international migration. It is set in the context of moves towards further liberalisation of services trade and associated labour mobility (Mode 4) under GATS and related regional trading arrangements. Ten Southeast Asian countries at various stages of economic development are examined as a case study, with special reference to health care and information technology. These sectors are priority sectors for regional cooperation in services trade in ASEAN, but were expected to represent opposite extremes in terms of the regulation of migration. The study finds that the more advanced countries tend to have more liberal regimes for international movements of skilled manpower, although there were smaller differences regarding general visa and work permit arrangements. Generic restrictions on mobility were related to trade policies, as well as to direct barriers (often country‐specific) to migration. They included minimum salary requirement, levies on foreign workers, economic needs tests, and limitations related to language, education and job experience. Controls were more extensive in the health care sector, related to social considerations as well as professional organisational interests.     

International Migration,the Brain Drain and Poverty: A Cross‐country Analysis

The aim of the paper is threefold. First, it empirically investigates the effect of international migration on poverty in origin countries, using data from a cross‐country analysis. Second, it explores the specific part of the income distribution from which migrants are drawn, by comparing the effect of international migration on different income quintiles of the population. Finally, given that the selection of migrants depends not only on the income level of their households, but also on the skill levels of movers, the paper casts some light on the implications of the emigration of skilled workers on poverty. This article shows that the stock of international migrants have a positive effect on the income of the poor while it does not have a significant impact on the income of the middle and top quintiles of the population. In particular, a 10 per cent increase in the per capita stock of migrants resident in OECD nations augments the income of the poor by 1 per cent, on average and ceteris paribus. Finally, the poverty‐reducing effect of migration holds even when the emigration process selects the best and the brightest.     

Efficiency Sorting Among Foreign Affiliates: Evidence From China

This paper uses a large micro‐level data set to investigate the efficiency sorting pattern of foreign affiliates serving different markets. We find systematic differences among the attributes of foreign affiliates serving the local and overseas markets. Affiliates serving only the host country market are the most productive, the most capitalintensive and the most skill‐intensive. Affiliates serving only the international market are the most unskilled and labour‐intensive, the least efficient, pay the lowest wages and invest least in innovation and advertising. Affiliates serving both markets offer high wages and invest most in innovation and advertising. The results also suggest that the most productive affiliates choose to serve the host country market, whereas the least efficient affiliates target the international market.     

Migration and institutions: Evidence from internal EU mobility

Despite the formal achievement of the free movement of labour within the EU , the institutional characteristics of the labour markets of the Member States may influence European mobility. The paper seeks empirical evidence of the relationship between labour market institutions and intra‐EU migrations, estimating a gravity model for bilateral migration for the period 2001–11. The results indicate that trade union density negatively correlates with the size of bilateral migrations: destinations with relatively high union density are associated with lower migration inflows. Since these countries tend to have a relatively flat earnings distribution, it is also investigated whether their earnings structure reduces their attractiveness as destinations hindering the access to their labour market. Even if a dependence between the earnings dispersion and migrations is found, trade union density remains the main driver of migration patterns. Clear effects of employment protection on EU mobility are not found.     

Is FDI Integrating the World Economy?

FDI's spectacular growth, in diverse forms, during the past two decades represented an important force generating greater economic integration. FDI increased substantially in relation to global productive capacity, cross border mergers and acquisitions component of FDI put domestic corporate laggards on notice, and the spread of FDI to non‐tradable service sectors generated the possibility that these traditionally low productivity sectors would be brought closer to the standards of international efficiency. Yet, FDI did not perform an integrating role in a more fundamental sense. There is little evidence that FDI served to speed up income convergence across countries. This was the case for two reasons. First, FDI flows remained highly concentrated. Second, the benefits from FDI appear to have accrued principally where conditions were already conducive to investment and growth. Hence, though cross‐country disciplines through bilateral, regional and multilateral efforts are important in reducing the distortions that lead to misallocation of capital, domestic efforts to raise absorptive capacity will ultimately be critical. Efforts to increase labour mobility, as foreseen, for example, under GATS, could have a significant effect in raising the benefits from FDI as the more mobile labour serves to bridge the cultural, institutional and contractual differences across nations.     

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? The knowledge‐capital model revisited

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract foreign direct investment (FDI), this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilising an extended version of the knowledge‐capital model. With a special focus on the effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) or an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between a pair of market and non‐market countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (i) although FTA/EPA generally tends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labour decreases as the size of the country grows; (ii) a developing country may suffer severe welfare losses through FTA/EPA if the availability of skilled labour is extremely limited; and (iii) a developing country can enhance welfare gains from a FTA, and it is even possible to recover the welfare effects from negative to positive, by making the arrangement an EPA.     

Liberalising the Movement of Natural Persons: A Lost Decade?

Liberalisation of international trade in services through the Movement of Natural Persons (Mode 4) remains one of the least negotiated issues of trade policy among the 144 members of the World Trade Organisation. Economists believe that there is a basic convergence of economic interest between the developed and the developing world for liberalising Mode 4. Yet the multilateral trading system has not facilitated greater worker mobility between the labour‐surplus and labour‐scarce countries. Is there any economic logic as to why cross‐border movements of workers have not followed the pattern predicted by international trade theory? Or are there strong socio‐political barriers that have come in the way of liberalising Mode 4? These are some of the questions the paper attempts to answer. The paper shows that the economic arguments against the free movement of natural persons are based on the narrow perspective of the welfare of domestic workers while ignoring the benefit it brings to the economy as a whole. Further, non‐economic arguments miss the point that the movement of workers under Mode 4 of GATS is temporary in nature, and so unlikely to have any lasting social and cultural spillovers. The paper gives specific illustrations from the recent past where temporary import of workers from labour‐surplus countries has enabled both developed and developing countries sustain their economic growth. It concludes by arguing that the environment for renegotiating WTO commitments under this important sector of international trade in services is better than ever before, even though the current world economic slowdown may delay actual negotiations for a while.     

Political Repression and Child Labour: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Most normative studies on child labour arrive at the conclusion that child labour is detrimental to social welfare. Child labour is, however, still prevalent in many developing countries even though in many of these countries it is forbidden by law. In this paper we develop a political‐economic model that explains lenient enforcement of existing child labour legislation. The most important implication of our model is that in countries with repressive political regimes enforcement is more lenient and child labour thus more prevalent than in countries enjoying political freedom. We test this implication and find that it is confirmed by the data.     

The role of education and training in enhancing labour productivity in Arab countries in Africa

Labour productivity in Arab countries is low by international standards and this problem occurs in Arab countries both inside and outside Africa. There are 10 Arab countries in Africa: Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros. Enhancing labour productivity is a major challenge for Arab countries. Improving labour productivity should increase competitiveness, economic growth, job availability and living standards. Key factors in low Arab labour productivity include weak education and training systems, a mismatch between training outputs and labour market demands, lack of technology and innovation and poor management of the workforce. This article seeks to put forward innovative education and training policies which can enhance labour productivity. It does so after examining Arab education and training systems and their links with industry. It is concluded that modern governance arrangements need to be applied in Arab universities. Universities need to be re‐envisioned so that curricula are market‐driven and bridge the gap between education supply and market demand. Entrepreneurial teaching and learning practices need to be emphasized and improved technical and vocational training should be a priority. The Arab countries also have to adopt responsive and practical strategies for research and development and link the research and development institutes to industry.     

The Long‐run Relationship Between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades

In recent years, the increase in international trade has sparked a debate about the impact of international trade on population health. To date, however, there has been very little econometric research on the relationship between these two variables. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between trade openness and population health for a sample of 74 countries over five decades, from 1960 to 2010. Using panel time‐series techniques, it is shown that international trade in general has a robust positive long‐run effect on health, as measured by life expectancy and infant mortality. This effect tends to be greater in countries with lower development levels, higher taxes on income, profits, and capital gains, and less restrictive business and labour market regulations.     

Explaining country and cross‐border liquidity commonality in international equity markets

Using a large cross section of intraday data from 25 developed countries, we study commonality in liquidity, both within and across international equity markets, over 15‐minute intervals. Within‐country and cross‐border liquidity commonalities are found to be significant and, after controlling for country and industry effects, relate to such firm‐specific measures as size, bid–ask spread, and the extent of analyst coverage. Additionally, within‐country liquidity commonality is lower for firms with depository receipts cross listed in New York or London. Cross‐border liquidity commonality is particularly high for firms with relatively high actual ownership by foreign institutions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:630–652, 2009     

Differing degrees of labour market regulation in Europe

The high density of labour market regulations is often quoted as an explanation for the unfavourable employment trends in most European countries compared to other nations. These regulations vary considerably from country to country, however. Which are the most important areas of regulation? How is the regulation of the German labour market to be judged compared to that of other European countries?     

The Determinants of GATS Commitment Coverage

This paper investigates hypotheses about the determinants of trade and investment liberalisation with a particular focus on the market access and national treatment commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). We set up a database of these GATS commitments and use the ratio of all commitments listed by a country to the possible number of commitments as a measure of liberalisation of market access/national treatment. Our empirical analysis suggests that larger and ‘richer’ countries commit to more liberal regimes of market access and national treatment. This is surprising since economic theory predicts the largest welfare gains for low‐skilled abundant (skilled‐labour/physical‐capital‐scarce) economies. Also, our findings suggest that liberalisation is stronger among geographically close countries with strong ties in goods trade.     

Do the English Legal Origin Countries have More Dispersed Share Ownership and More Developed Financial Systems?

The essence of the legal origin hypothesis is that a country with an English legal origin provides better investor and creditor protection and experiences greater financial development; financial institutions and stock markets flourish, the general public participate more in financing investment projects of companies and so shareholding is less concentrated. The present paper examines this hypothesis on the basis of a cross‐country study of 85 countries. We find no evidence of more dispersed share ownership in the English law countries than in other countries with different legal origins irrespective of whether we adjust for the existence of transitional economies and less developed countries in the sample. Using three indicators of development of banking and other credit institutions and four indicators of stock market developments, we also find no evidence of more developed financial systems in the English law countries. As expected, there is some evidence of lower financial development in the less developed countries and transitional countries. It is not the English law heritage but the security of persons and goods that appears to explain the cross‐country variations in financial development.