Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs

This study examines the role of international trade and specifically imports from low‐wage countries, in determining patterns of job loss in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2007. Motivated by intuitions from factor‐proportions‐inspired work on offshoring and heterogeneous firms in trade, we build industry‐level measures of import competition. Combining worker data from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics data set, detailed establishment information from the Census of Manufactures and transaction‐level trade data, we find that rising import competition from China and other developing economies increases the likelihood of job loss among manufacturing workers with less than a high school degree; it is not significantly related to job losses for workers with at least a college degree.     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.     

国际贸易对我国行业间收入分配的影响——基于制造业面板数据的实证分析

本文运用我国1998-2006年27个制造业行业的面板数据对国际贸易的行业间收入分配效应进行了实证研究。研究发现,从总体上看,出口对行业相对工资有正向的上拉作用,进口对行业相对工资有负向的下拉作用。但进出口对不同类型行业的影响程度和方向不同,出口贸易对资本密集型和劳动密集型制造业行业的相对工资均有上拉作用,且对前者的促进作用大于后者;进口贸易对劳动密集型制造业行业的相对工资有下拉作用,而对资本密集型制造业行业的相对工资有上拉作用。基于上述结论,促进出口,提高劳动密集型产品的附加值,适当控制最终消费品等产品的进口,有助于缩小行业收入差距。     

Skill Upgrading and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper examines the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on skill upgrading in the case of Chile. Using plant‐level data from the manufacturing sector, we find that a real depreciation increases the share of skilled workers in the total wage bill in exporters but not in non‐exporters. This result suggests that depreciations or, more generally, increases in export profitability, may induce exporters to adopt more skill‐intensive technologies. This finding gives support to recent models of trade that highlight the possible effect of the real exchange rate on skill upgrading and wage inequality. This paper also finds that real depreciations increase plants’ export intensity, suggesting that skill upgrading for firms that are already exporters is the channel through which real exchange depreciations affect wage inequality.     

Import Competition and Labor Productivity

The impact of import competition on labor productivity is examined using panel data for a sample of Australian manufacturing firms over the period 1984–1993. Import competition is found to interact with domestic competition; such the positive impact of import competition on the level and rate of growth of labor productivity rises with the degree of concentration among domestic producers. The results suggest that lowering border protection on manufactured imports into Australia has led to enhanced productivity from domestic producers, especially from those producers in highly concentrated industries.     

On the Role of Imports in Enhancing Manufacturing Exports

Making use of a large panel data set on Italian manufacturing firms, we provide evidence on the effect of imports on the firm's export performance. We distinguish imports of intermediates according to their origin, and we find that inputs sourced from low labour cost countries promote the firm's export activity. Imports from high‐income countries do not significantly contribute to the export orientation of firms, especially when both persistence in export and the possible endogeneity of the import measures are accounted for via system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation of a linear probability model. Our evidence suggests that the impact of imports on the firms’ export activity works through the cost‐saving channel rather than the technology channel.     

Jobs and Exposure to International Trade within the Service Sector in Sweden

To establish in which service industries there is international trade (or it may potentially exist), we calculate locational Ginis for different industries. The basic idea is that from this measure of regional concentration of different activities within a country we can identify industries where there appears to be regional trade, and hence also a potential for international trade. Based on our method, we find that: (i) the number of employed in tradable service appears to be at least as large as in the manufacturing sector, (ii) tradable service is much more skill intensive than manufacturing, and (iii) lately, the employment in tradable service has increased substantially. We argue that the last mentioned result is consistent with the substantial growth of skilled labour in Sweden since the mid‐1990s (Rybczynski effect) and factors leading to increased relative demand for skilled labour. Particularly, increased competition from and offshoring to low‐wage countries seem recently to have had a considerable impact on the creation of skilled jobs and the displacement of less skilled jobs in the tradable sector in Sweden. Furthermore, we apply a similar method as for industries to identify tradable occupations. Using our classification of tradable industries and tradable occupations in a Mincer type wage equation, we find that workers in such industries and occupations receive a wage premia of 12–13 per cent.     

South–South Trade and Skill Premia

Contrary to the predictions of the 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model, empirical evidence shows that the skill premium increased in some developing countries and decreased in others after trade liberalisation. This paper attempts to reconcile the empirical evidence with the theoretical predictions by introducing a model where South–South trade can produce the observed patterns of skill premia in the South. In this context, South–South trade expands the import range of the country that reduces the tariff. This increases the demand for and the cost of skilled workers in the other country. This also leads the country that reduces the tariff to expand its export range and reduce its import range. Therefore, the country that reduces the tariff experiences an increase in its export range, which leads to an increase in the skill premium. As the impact on the import range is ambiguous, it is possible that the other country experiences a decline in the skill premium. Thus, trade liberalisation between Southern countries can cause an increase in the skill premium in one and a decrease in the skill premium in another.     

与发展中国家的贸易是否扩大了美国的相对工资差距

对外贸易不仅直接影响着相对工资差距,还通过技术创新效应间接影响着相对工资差距。本文运用美国制造业1997-2006年的面板数据,实证分析了美国与发展中国家的贸易对美国制造业相对工资差距的影响。研究结论是:来自发展中国家劳动密集型产品的进口竞争没有扩大美国制造业所有行业的相对工资差距,美国劳动密集制造部门相对工资差距的扩大与来自发展中国家的进口竞争有一定的关联,但技术密集制造部门相对工资差距的扩大与其无关;美国对发展中国家的出口贸易以及国内的技术创新在很大程度上扩大了美国制造业的相对工资差距。     

International Outsourcing and the Skill–Specific Wage Bill in Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the effects of international fragmentation in terms of intermediate goods trade on the dynamics of the skilled–to–unskilled labour wage bill ratio in 14 manufacturing industries of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Both intermediate goods exports and imports of the CEEC exhibit a positive impact on the wage bill ratio. Since 1993, intermediate goods trade with the EU alone has accounted for a considerable reduction of the predicted annual change in the skilled–to–unskilled wage bill ratio in the three CEEC.     

Trade Policy Flexibilities and Turkey: Tariffs,Anti‐dumping,Safeguards and WTO Dispute Settlement

The commitment to lower import tariffs and to maintain tariffs at low levels entails political‐economic trade‐offs. Empirical work examining the relationship between such commitments and the ‘flexibilities’ that policymakers exercise to get around them is still relatively nascent, especially for emerging economies. This paper provides a rich, empirically based assessment of ways that Turkey exercised trade policy flexibilities during the global economic crisis of 2008–11. First, and despite multilateral and customs union commitments that might limit changes to its applied tariffs, Turkey exercised flexibilities during 2008–11 by making changes to both its applied MFN and preferential tariffs that could affect nearly 9 per cent of its manufacturing imports. Second, Turkey's cumulative application of temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies – that is, anti‐dumping, safeguards and countervailing duties – is estimated to impact an additional 4–6 per cent of Turkey's manufacturing imports by 2011. Other surprising results include Turkey's lengthy extensions to the duration of previously imposed anti‐dumping and safeguards beyond expected removal dates, conversion of product coverage from one TTB policy to another, extensive coverage of upstream and downstream segments of important industries and potential deepening of discriminatory preferences already inherent in existing preferential trade agreements.     

The Skill Structure of Export Wage Premium: Evidence from Chinese Matched Employer–Employee Data

We study how the wage gap between exporting and non‐exporting firms (export wage premium) differs across skill groups, using unique matched employer–employee data from China. We find robust evidence that exporters pay relatively higher wages than non‐exporters to more educated workers. The differences in export wage premium across education groups are sizable. Further investigations show that the positive correlation between export wage premium and education is more pronounced in sectors with higher scope for quality differentiation. This is consistent with the theory that exporters produce relatively higher quality goods which require relatively higher quality skilled workers.     

进出口贸易对相对工资差距的影响

本文以我国有进行进出口贸易的32个细分行业为研究对象,时间跨度为2002～2009年,采用面板模型实证检验进出口贸易对相对工资差距的影响。实证结论显示:在不考虑行业特征的情形下:第一,行业的进出口贸易总额引起相对工资差距的缩小;第二,在将进出口贸易分解为进口贸易和出口贸易的情形下,出口贸易增加引起相对工资差距的缩小,进口贸易增加引起相对工资差距的扩大;在考虑行业特征的情形下:第一,出口扩大工资差距,进口没有影响。第二,行业要素密集度的不同会导致出口贸易和进口贸易对相对工资差距产生不同的影响。     

Examining Determinants of Foreign Wage Premiums in China

We estimate foreign wage premiums for every 3‐digit manufacturing industry in China and discover a wide range of premiums both for ‘foreign’ ownership and for overseas Chinese ownership. Foreign ownership generates larger and more prevalent wage premiums than overseas Chinese ownership, but both produce premiums that respond similarly in estimates of determinants. Using the number of computers per worker to measure firms' technology levels, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that foreign firms pay higher wages to reduce the risk of worker turnover and the accompanying technology leakage in 76 to 78 per cent of industries. However, this determinant explains only 5 to 6 per cent of the foreign wage premium. We find the most intensive support for the ‘fair wage’ hypothesis that foreign firms pay higher wages because they are more profitable than domestic firms and workers in more profitable firms expect to be paid more, otherwise they will shirk. This hypothesis explains an average of 8 to 9 per cent of the foreign wage premiums, with support found in 72 to 75 per cent of the industries. When we consider the best combination of explanatory variables to include in each industry's wage regression, we find evidence consistent with our combined hypotheses in most industries, but we still find large residual foreign wage premiums.     

Trade Policy Issues in a Small African Economy: The Trade Policy Review of The Gambia 2004

The Gambia displays many of the classic characteristics of a small open economy, with the vulnerabilities that implies. The sum of its imports and exports are around 100 per cent of GDP, with a limited number of export commodities and a wide variety of imports, including some key staple foods. The Trade Policy Review of The Gambia 2004 provides a very helpful review and assessment of current trade patterns and policies. The latter rely predominantly on import and export taxes. While quite substantial trade reform measures have been implemented recently, these have led to only a very small reduction in the average tariff rate, and trade policy displays a substantial anti‐export bias. Other important issues highlighted by the Trade Policy Review include serious capacity constraints relating to trade policy, and a failure to discuss connections between trade policy and growth and poverty reduction – again common characteristics of many small economies.     

人民币升值对辽宁省装备制造业影响的实证研究

辽宁省装备制造业一直为辽宁经济发展发挥重要作用。随着人民币升值压力的逐渐加大,辽宁省装备制造业也面临着较大的考验。采用古典线性回归方法建立了辽宁省装备制造业进口值和出口值与人民币汇率之间线性方程。测算出辽宁省装备制造业进出口受人民币升值的影响情况。为促进辽宁省装备制造业良好健康发展,应提高企业自主创新能力,增强企业对汇率变化的敏感性,进一步深化金融改革,拓宽企业融资渠道,建立多元产业结构。     

人民币汇率波动的福利效应——基于我国制造业面板数据的实证分析

本文运用1996-2007年我国制造业27个细分行业的贸易和产业数据,根据人民币实际有效汇率(总体汇率)的计算方法构造了制造业分行业的进、出口汇率指标,分别考察了总体汇率、出口汇率、进口汇率对制造业分行业、分部门(劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三个部门)工人福利的影响及其传导途径。实证研究结果表明:在分行业分析中,三种汇率升值均降低了制造业工人的福利水平;在分部门分析中,由于区分了各部门贸易程度和产业性质存在的差异,汇率升值主要通过出口途径降低了劳动密集型部门工人的福利,主要通过投入品进口途径和制成品进口途径分别提高了资本密集型部门和技术密集型部门工人的福利。最后,本文就长短期内如何调整人民币汇率以促进制造业工人福利改善提出了一些政策建议。     

Imports,monopoly power,profits and exchange rates

This study uses pooled data on U.S. manufacturing industries and on U.S. imports to analyze the level of monopoly power and the restraining influence of the import penetration ratio at the industry level. In general, industries with higher levels of imports have lower levels of monopoly power. In addition, imports have a greater impact on industries with more monopoly power (i.e., higher concentration), even though the level of imports may be lower. Finally, the impact of imports on monopoly power appears to be increasing over time indicating that U.S. manufacturing has become significantly more competitive over the 1961 to 1984 period. (JEL F14, L12)     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

GVC参与度对中国制造业出口国内附加值的影响研究

基于贸易增加值核算框架,使用2000年~2014年中国18个制造业的样本数据,应用广义最小二乘法实证检验了GVC参与度对出口国内附加值的影响效果。结果显示:参与GVC程度的加深会带动出口国内附加值的增长,进口中间品会降低出口国内附加值,但GVC参与度提高所引起的出口国内附加值增长幅度大于进口中间品所引起的下降幅度,出口国内附加值与GVC地位存在U型关系,行业生产效率的提升、产品国际竞争力的增强和加入WTO都显著提高了出口国内附加值,改变出口国内附加值的测度方法后,上述结果依然稳健。将制造业分为高、中级技术类别,高技术制造业有更强的附加值获取能力,中级技术制造业更多依赖高密集度的劳动投入分享附加值。