从大学生就业难看中国人才结构培养失衡

<正>2006年11月16日,在中国科学院研究生院召开的科学与人文论坛上,劳动和社会保障部部长田成平表示,2006年高校毕业生比2005年增加了75万人,总量达到413万人。按照70%的初次就业率计算,2006年高校毕业生约有124万人无法实现当期就业。大家心知肚明,无法当期就业不过是失业的一个美好说法而已。     

从劳动力市场的二元结构特点看就业政策

传统新古典经济学认为。劳动力市场是一个连续的竞争性市场,劳动力价格即均衡工资决定于劳动力的供给和需求状况。如果劳动力供给大于需求,市场均衡工资水平就会下降;反之亦然。实际上,劳动力市场存在“二元结构”,是一个非连续性的分割市场,这在发展中国家更为明显。劳动力市场可以一分为二。即“主流劳动力市场”和“非主流劳动力市场”。     

Global Competitive Pressures,Labour Market and Employment Issues in the Japanese Service Sector

Global competition of products and services leads to rapid changes in the economy, industry and management. Judging from the industrial employment structure in Japan, the lower prices of foreign goods and services will drive the unemployment rate up in the long run. The Japanese economy urgently requires the growth of business and job opportunities, and therefore the role of employment protection legislation should be re-examined from the viewpoint of encouraging business activities. Analysis of the case study shows that managers in the growing service sector have positive attitudes towards employment growth and the expansion of business activities if the following measures are introduced: the deregulation of redundancy dismissals, the introduction of arbitrary work with performance pay, and legislative enforcement against age discrimination for hiring and firing.     

市场化条件下的妇女就业及其劳动权益保护——对上海非公有制企业女工的调查

根据复旦大学人口研究所2002年的调查资料,介绍上海市非公有制企业女工的工资报酬、她们所享有的一般劳动权益和特殊劳动保护权益.在市场化条件下,现有的法律和法规对妇女劳动权益的保护作用呈现减弱的趋势.呼吁全社会在关心妇女就业的同时,必须以极大的热情关注妇女劳动权益的保护.     

市场化条件下的妇女就业及其劳动权益保护--对上海非公有制企业女工的调查

根据复旦大学人口研究所2002年的调查资料,介绍上海市非公有制企业女工的工资报酬、她们所享有的一般劳动权益和特殊劳动保护权益.在市场化条件下,现有的法律和法规对妇女劳动权益的保护作用呈现减弱的趋势.呼吁全社会在关心妇女就业的同时,必须以极大的热情关注妇女劳动权益的保护.     

Trade,Technical Change,and Labour Market Adjustment

This paper empirically examines three possible reasons for the high and rising unemployment of low‐skilled employees in Germany: (i) an upsurge in inter‐industry trade, (ii) a skill‐biased technical change, and (iii) a failure of labour market adjustment. The empirical analyses indicate that an exogenous wage‐setting process as well as a bundle of factors, including a skill‐biased technical and structural change, have contributed to the decline in relative demand for low‐skilled employees in Germany. Thus, economic policy in Germany should focus on improving the employability of workers in the lower segment of the labour market and on raising the adjustment flexibility, above all the flexibility of the wage structure, of the German labour market.     

基于VAR模型的人民币有效汇率就业效应

基于向量自回归模型,对人民币实际有效汇率的就业效应进行实证分析,结果表明就业量和人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期均衡关系,长期而言人民币实际有效汇率上升1%就业量将下降0.1821%。因此,人民币实际有效汇率的波动率对就业量仅存在微弱的负面影响。     

Real Exchange Rates and ASEAN Trade

This paper systematically analyses the longer-term effects on the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) trade of changes in competitiveness brought about by changing real exchange rates. We introduce a model to explain exports from four ASEAN countries which highlights the role of real exchange rates. Specifically, we provide evidence on the price responsiveness of export demand. The results indicate that (i) there have been large changes in real exchange rates; and (ii) the pattern of ASEAN trade responds to relative prices (real exchange rates). Suprisingly, however, the impact of observed changes in real exchange rates on ASEAN trade is only relatively minor.     

Industrial Specialization,Catching‐up and Labour Market Dynamics

This paper presents a dynamic model as a heuristic tool to discuss some issues of changing industrial specialization which arise in the context of catching‐up processes of (technologically) less advanced economies and the impact which various scenarios of such catching‐up processes might have on the labour market dynamics both in the advanced and in the catching‐up economies. In analysing the evolution of international specialization, we demonstrate the twin pressures exerted upon the industrial structures of “northern” economies: competition from “type‐A southern” economies, which maintain a comparative competitive strength in labour‐intensive and less skill‐intensive branches, and competition from “type‐B catching‐up” economies, whose catching‐up increasingly focuses upon branches in which the initial productivity gaps and hence the scope for catching‐up are the highest. The contrast between these two catching‐up scenarios allows the explicit analysis of the implications of “comparative advantage switchovers” between northern and southern (type B) economies for labour market dynamics.     

Exchange Rates and Competition for FDI in Asia

This paper argues that relative exchange rates between the host countries of foreign direct investment affect their competition for FDI. Specifically, if the host country currency appreciates against the source country's currency more than that of its rival, FDI inflows of the host country will decrease, while FDI inflows increase in the rival country. Using the data of Japanese FDI in nine Asian manufacturing sectors from 1981 to 2002, the paper examines the hypothesis in the context of the competition between China and ASEAN‐4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). Empirical results show that the relative exchange rate is a statistically significant factor that determines the relative inflows of Japanese FDI for manufacturing as a whole, and for such sub‐sectors as textiles, food, electronics, transportation equipment, and others. Exchange rate policies of China and ASEAN‐4 played a critical role in dynamically reshaping the geographic distribution of Japanese FDI in Asia.     

汇率变化对美国旅华市场影响的实证分析

美国是中国远程入境旅游的第一客源国。自1994人民币汇率体制改革,尤其是2005年完善人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,美元兑人民币汇率大幅贬值,不可避免地影响了美国居民对中国旅游产品的需求。本文选取1994-2007年美国旅华市场及汇率变化的相关数据,实证分析汇率变化及相关因素对美国旅华市场需求的影响,认为汇率的短期波动和中国旅游产品的独特性弱化了美元贬值对美国居民旅华市场的影响。     

利率政策与汇率政策协调搭配的文献综述

当前,我国经济已经进入了一个市场化与国际化的转型时期,在经济全球化背景下,利率政策和汇率政策在我国货币政策中的作用日益显著。我国很多学者在这一领域进行了积极的探索,部分成果实现了学术突破,但对于价格型货币政策即利率政策和汇率政策的综合研究还远远不够丰富和深入。我国应进一步深入研究利率政策和汇率政策的交互作用下对中国宏观经济的影响程度,这种影响是否与货币当局的预期相吻合;包含汇率政策在内的扩展的泰勒规则在中国经济的适应性;研究价格型货币政策工具之间的协调机制。通过梳理利率与汇率的关系、利率政策与汇率政策有效搭配的相关理论,可以更好地为新时期我国利率政策和汇率政策的协调搭配提供参考。     

Opening of China's Trade,Labour Market Reform and Impact on Rural Wages

Government policy in China supports urban wages at the expense of returns to farm labour. A model is developed to estimate how WTO accession and complementary labour market reform will influence factor returns in China. With WTO membership, a larger cut in manufacturing tariffs compared to agriculture will improve agriculture's terms of trade and will raise the agricultural wage. Complementary labour market reforms will further boost farm wages as labour exits agriculture in large numbers. We estimate that WTO membership and complementary labour market reforms will result in a decline in the agricultural labour force by about 25 per cent.     

有经验人士将在未来6-8年内成为职场香饽饽

<正>专业招聘机构万宝盛华(Manpow-er)在26个国家进行的一项调查显示,全球许多地区正出现专业人才短缺问题,迫使雇主们支付更高的工资。     

货币主义现代汇率理论评述

货币主义汇率理论是汇率理论的主要学派。多恩布什(Dornbusch)是货币主义现代汇率理论的代表人物。但是多恩布什的粘性价格货币模型在实证检验中很不理想而受到广泛质疑。文章对以多恩布什为代表的货币主义现代汇率理论进行了评述，并介绍了奥布斯特菲尔德和罗高夫(Obsfield，M．and K．Rogoff)建立的汇率动态模型。最后，文章介绍了货币主义现代汇率理论发展的方向。     

也谈中美汇率之争

近来,关于全球货币战争的说法甚嚣尘上。而处在矛盾漩涡正中的则是中美两国。其实,中美关于人民币是否低估及低估多少的争论由来已久,只不过随着美国中期选举的临近而再次被炒作为话题。9月29日,美国会众议院以348票对79票通过了《汇率改革促进公平贸易法案》,旨在对所谓低估本币汇率的国家征收特别关税,矛头直指中国。