Assessing the Impacts of US‐Japan Bilateral Trade Agreements, 1980–1995

The paper presents three different viewpoints on the effects of US‐Japan bilateral trade agreements and finds some evidence to support each one using trade data from 1980–1995. For most of the 25 industry‐agreement cases, the data do not support a conclusion of significant positive impacts of the agreements on Japan's imports of targeted manufactured products from either the US or non‐US sources. In at least one high‐profile case involving autos, I find evidence suggesting positive impacts on imports from the US, but in this case the data suggests trade diversion benefiting US0based producers at the expense of European ones. I also find a few cases where the agreements may have produced positive effects on Japan's imports from non‐US sources.     

Trade,Tariffs and Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Spanish Firms

The aim of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of total factor productivity (TFP) to foreign competition in the case of a European country. Using the Olley and Pakes method, we calculate the TFP of Spanish manufacturing firms and study the impact of EU tariffs and the presence of foreign products and imports on TFP at the firm level. Applying the System‐GMM method, we find that TFP is negatively impacted by European tariffs, whereas competition in the form of the increased presence of foreign products in the domestic market and firm imports leads to improvements in the TFP. Moreover, these two effects are complementary. We also find evidence of important asymmetries among firms depending on their involvement in foreign markets.     

The Developmental Impact of Asian Drivers on Ethiopia with Emphasis on Small‐scale Footwear Producers

(1252) Tegegne Gebre‐Egziabher This paper examines the developmental impact of China and India on Ethiopia by examining macro‐level trade, investment and aid relation, and micro‐level impacts on local micro and small‐scale footwear producers. Both secondary and primary data were used. At macro level there are clear evidences of an increase in trade between Ethiopia on the one hand and China and India on the other, though the trade balance disfavours Ethiopia. China has displaced other countries as export destinations for Ethiopia. Similarly, the presence of China and India is also felt in the areas of investment and aid. At local level, Chinese imports of footwear have forced local enterprises to downsize their activity and lose assets and money. At the same time, however, firms have followed both the high road of competition (design and quality improvement, investment in machinery, product specialisation) and the low road of competition (lowering price and profit, reducing raw materials and inputs, and joining the informal sector) to withstand the impact of Chinese imports. The long‐term effect of Chinese imports is to crowd out local efforts of using the sector as the basis for industrialisation. Government, non‐government organisations and local producers should work together in order to withstand the negative impacts of footwear imports by raising the competitiveness of the local producers.     

Firm R&D,Processing Trade and Input Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Chinese Firms

This paper examines the impact of input trade liberalisation on firm R&D activity by taking China's accession to the WTO as a quasi‐natural experiment. Different from ordinary imports, processing imports in China enjoy zero tariffs and are not affected by input trade liberalisation due to the WTO accession. The paper uses disaggregated firm‐level production data and transaction‐level trade data to perform difference‐in‐difference analysis by taking processing import firms as a control group. An intensive empirical search shows that after China's accession to the WTO, input trade liberalisation fostered firm R&D significantly. The findings are robust to different measures and various empirical specifications.     

Productivity Versus Employment: Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU–Japan Free Trade Agreement

The European Union and Japan recently entered into negotiations over a bilateral free trade agreement intended to stimulate growth and create wealth. Since customs duties are already low, the success of the liberalisation process hinges on the elimination of non‐tariff barriers. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on two possible liberalisation scenarios: a less ambitious liberalisation and a comprehensive liberalisation. In contrast to classic studies, our paper builds on the modern trade literature, accounting for the dominance of intra‐industry trade in both economies and the existence of heterogeneous firms. Furthermore, we model a search‐and‐matching labour market, allowing us to quantify employment effects of trade liberalisation. We find that a comprehensive liberalisation increases Japanese GDP by 0.86 per cent, whereas the EU experiences only an additional 0.21 per cent of real GDP growth. Most of the growth in real GDP is due to firms' efficiency gains, whereas unemployment is reduced by only a small amount. Other world regions experience small reductions of GDP due to trade diversion effects.     

Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

The Trade Effects of US Anti‐dumping Actions against China Post‐WTO Entry

Since China's entry into the WTO, US anti‐dumping (AD) actions against China have increased, particularly with respect to multiple petitions. Distinguishing between US single and multiple petitions, we examine the trade effects of US AD actions against China based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data. The results show that a US single petition investigation greatly restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also causes more significant import diversion from non‐named countries. In the short run, a preliminary AD duty imposed on China via a US multiple petition not only restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also prevents trade diversion from non‐named countries. In the long run, a final AD duty on China resulting from a US multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on China and causes US import diversion from non‐named countries. Thus, a final AD duty imposed on China following a US multiple petition not only harms China's exports but also fails to help the US achieve import substitution. Furthermore, we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary AD duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty.     

Anti‐dumping: A Growing Problem in International Trade

This paper discusses the issue of anti‐dumping (AD) proliferation. AD is used more frequently, by more countries, and against more products than ever in its history. I review AD filing patterns with an emphasis on the scope of countries and industries seeking protection. Recent trends suggest that the widespread embrace of AD protection makes the prospect for AD reform increasingly unlikely. AD is no longer being used solely by high‐income developed countries. It is increasingly being used by middle‐income and even lower‐income countries. New users have chosen to use AD very intensively. Per dollar of imports the new users have filed AD cases up to 15–20 times more frequently than the traditional AD users such as the US and EU. The evolving set of AD users complicates AD negotiations. In the near term, strong opposition by the US and EU makes reform a highly unlikely outcome. In the longer run, rising use of AD against the US and EU could conceivably weaken their support for AD; yet, the same trends that might finally cause the US and EU to realise AD is a failed policy will likely make reform impossible.     

A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration

This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it also results in trade diversion; that is, a declining share of accession country exports and imports with non‐EU15 countries. Overall, the trade balances of the accession countries suffer larger trade deficits after accession due to import growth surpassing export growth. The extent of increase in the trade deficit due to accession is inversely related to the level of integration and income of the new members. Hence integration is path‐dependent and the EU should take this into account when preparing for further enlargements to the Balkans and Southeast Europe.     

How Do US Economic Sanctions Affect EU's Trade with Target Countries?

We investigate the impact of US economic sanctions on EU's trade using a panel data approach expressed in a two‐level framework. Both multilateral and unilateral sanctions involving the US and the EU have a negative impact on EU trade (total, imports and exports). We argue that unilateral sanctions, if extensive in nature, would have a depressing impact on target countries’ trade, especially in the stage after sanctions have been imposed. Over time, both multilateral and unilateral sanctions lead to an increase in a target country's exports to the EU, lending support to the third‐country effect of sanctions.     

International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters

We provide a novel set of stylized facts on firms engaging in international trade in services, using unique data on firm-level exports and imports from the world's second largest services exporter, the United Kingdom (UK). We show that only a fraction of UK firms engage in international trade in services, that trade participation varies widely across industries and that service traders are different from non-traders in terms of size, productivity and other firm characteristics. We also provide detailed evidence on the trading patterns of service exporters and importers, such as the number of markets served, the value of exports and imports per market and the share of individual markets in overall sales. We interpret these facts in the light of existing theories of international trade in services and goods. Our results demonstrate that firm-level heterogeneity is a key feature of services trade. Also, we find many similarities between services and goods trade at the firm level and conclude that existing heterogeneous firm models for goods trade will be a good starting point for explaining trade in services as well.     

Has the Byrd Amendment Affected US Imports?

The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), also known as the Byrd Amendment, allows the US government to distribute revenues from antidumping duties to domestic firms alleging harm. Prior to the amendment these revenues were not distributed to firms. In this article, we formally test the hypothesis that the Byrd Amendment effectively provides double protection to US firms to the extent that it further restricts US imports, as argued by the EU and 11 other US trading partners. Using a rich panel of 362 US manufacturing industries for the period 1998 to 2003, we find that whether or not the Byrd Amendment restricted US imports depends crucially on the level of competitiveness in the import‐competing industry. Specifically, we find that the Byrd Amendment served to restrict imports only in industries where competition is relatively weak, while the amendment is associated with an increase in imports in more competitive industries.     

How to Balance the Outcomes of the Economic Partnership Agreements for Sub‐Saharan African Economies?

Since 2002, the Sub‐Saharan African countries ( except South Africa which already has a free‐trade agreement with the EU ) have embarked on free‐trade agreement negotiations with the European Union. These arrangements will replace the Cotonou scheme, which requires these countries to eliminate their tariffs on ‘substantially’ all their European imports. Based on a general equilibrium analysis, this study estimates the potential effects of these agreements by considering different levels of reciprocity in the commitments of the Sub‐Saharan African countries. It shows that the ‘standard’ EU proposal, whereby Sub‐Saharan African countries would cut tariffs on 80 per cent of their European imports, would not be enough to balance the outcome of the Economic Partnership Agreements. As a result of the asymmetries between European and African protections and supply‐side capacities, African countries could experience a balance of trade deficit of USD 1.8 billion associated with a 0.1 per cent decrease in GDP. This proposal, which also induces an industrial restructuring to the benefit of the agro‐processing industries, will create a significant fiscal burden. A lesser level of commitment could largely mitigate these unfavourable results; by reciprocating tariff eliminations on only 60 per cent of their European imports, African countries would reduce the trade imbalance and fiscal losses induced by these agreements by 21 and 51 per cent respectively.     

Cultural Distance and the US Immigrant–Trade Link

Using data from the World and the European Values Surveys, we calculate cultural distances between the US and 54 immigrant home countries and examine the influences of cultural distance and immigrant populations on US imports from and exports to immigrants’ home countries during the years 1997–2004. Our study indicates that, for both US imports and exports, the trade‐enhancing effect of immigrants partially offsets the trade‐inhibiting effect of cultural distance. Further, decomposing our measure of cultural distance into two component dimensions and revisiting the immigrant–trade relationship, we find significant variation in the extent to which immigrants counter the trade‐inhibiting influences of the underlying dimensions of culture for both US imports and exports. Our findings have the implication that by countering the trade‐inhibiting influences of cultural differences between their home and host countries, immigrants exert pro‐development effects.     

Turkey: Trade Policy Review, 2007

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2007. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey’s trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy under the headings of measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper notes that the formation of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union has contributed to a significant increase in the contestability of domestic markets through infusing predictability, transparency and stability to trade policy as well as by liberalising market access. But free trade in industrial goods between Turkey and the EU could still not be established mainly because of non‐tariff barriers and in particular because of the various problems faced in the elimination of technical barriers to trade (TBT). The final section of the paper discusses first the role of standards and conformity assessment in general terms and thereafter evaluates critically the Turkish approach to elimination of TBTs.     

Collected Customs Duties: The Level of Taxation on Imports Applied by the US and the EU

Relating the collected customs duty to the value of imports enables the estimation of a rate of applied duty that takes into account all pricing components and their use. Indeed, this ad valorem equivalent integrates the complex dimensions of customs duties, the measures of exemption and suspension, and those concerning preferential regimes. Processing collected duties for all the products reveals that the 1.5 per cent rate of duty actually applied in 2003 is the same for the EU and the US. Nevertheless, it appears that the US taxes more the least developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries than does the EU. Thus, setting aside those products which enter free of duty, the rate of taxation applied by the US is 15 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively with regards to LDCs and developing countries, whereas in the EU it is only 3.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent. In the US market the sectors that are the most highly taxed upon importation are textiles, apparel and clothing, cotton and articles of leather, whereas in the EU it is more agricultural and food products (fruits and preserves, meats, sugars and cereals).     

Are US Exports Different from China’s Exports? Evidence from Japan’s Imports

Are US exports different from China’s exports? If so, how? This article attempts to answer this question, using product‐level manufacturing import data from Japan. To make the comparison clear, this article also examines exports from the EU. The results indicate that more than 85 per cent and 83 per cent of products exported by the US and the EU, respectively, to Japan are also commonly exported from China. Both the US and the EU export products are priced higher than China’s export products, regardless of industries. This result suggests that quality differences matter in explaining the high overlap of China’s export products with US and EU export products. In some industries, however, the price differences of US and EU exports relative to China’s exports are relatively small. This result implies that either Chinese firms are upgrading the quality of their products, or US and EU firms are improving their efficiencies such that they can compete with Chinese firms.     

Trade Effects of the European Union's Service Directive: Contrasting ex ante Estimates with Empirical Evidence

One of the top priorities to improve the European Union's growth performance is the creation of a single market for services. The directive on services adopted by the Parliament and the Council by the end of 2006 aims at removing barriers to the free movement of service providers on the internal market. Previous studies quantified ex ante sizable effects of implementing the directive in its original form. This paper is a first attempt to evaluate ex post the trade effects induced by a directive – which excludes the country‐of‐origin principle – by performing a difference‐in‐difference‐(in‐differences) estimator on a sample of EU‐ and non‐EU countries in the period 2004 to 10. We account for non‐tariff trade barriers and the endogeneity of regional trade agreements and find that the service directive adds to a reallocation of business services trade within the EU. Accounting for the trade effect of past deregulations, the EU directive fosters a deeper integration of the new member states into the European service value‐added‐chain and promotes business service exports from third countries towards the EU significantly more than trade of country pairs in the control group. The reorientation of the EU‐15 towards the new members is in turn associated with less intense intra‐EU‐10 businesses, while business trade between EU‐15 members is not significantly affected.     

Technology Trade in Economic Development

Recent evidence on the respective contributions of institutions and trade to income levels across countries has demonstrated that – once endogeneity is considered – institutional quality clearly dominates the effect of trade. We argue that overall trade is not the most appropriate measure for technology diffusion as a source of productivity growth and propose to focus on imports of research and development (R&D)‐intensive goods instead. Overall, we confirm previous findings that institutions matter most and that overall trade is not positively associated with per‐capita income levels. Yet this does not hold for technology trade, as there is a positive and significant linkage between technology imports and income levels. This outcome is robust to various model specifications, including an instrumental variables approach.     

European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade

This paper examines the impact of two European Union (EU) market access regulations in the food sector presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export food products to the EU. We analysed EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non‐tariff measure in the form of a minimum entry price regulation, which aims to protect EU growers of certain fruits and vegetables against international competition. Analysis was based on Africa's exports of tomatoes, oranges, and lime and lemon to the EU between 2008 and 2013, using the gravity model of trade. Our results show that EU market access conditions constitute significant barrier to the formation of new trade relation between the EU and Africa. In addition, initiation of trade relationships is contingent not only on market access conditions but also on domestic market constraints in Africa. These results imply that negotiating preferential entry prices duties and the removal of domestic market restraints as well as strengthening domestic capacity to comply with EU standards to enhance continuous market access for the continent could stimulate food trade along the extensive margin.