Turkey: Trade Policy Review, 2007

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2007. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey’s trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy under the headings of measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper notes that the formation of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union has contributed to a significant increase in the contestability of domestic markets through infusing predictability, transparency and stability to trade policy as well as by liberalising market access. But free trade in industrial goods between Turkey and the EU could still not be established mainly because of non‐tariff barriers and in particular because of the various problems faced in the elimination of technical barriers to trade (TBT). The final section of the paper discusses first the role of standards and conformity assessment in general terms and thereafter evaluates critically the Turkish approach to elimination of TBTs.     

立足匈牙利开拓欧盟市场

亚洲金融危机的全球性扩散，使世界贸易保护主义抬头，尤其是欧美国家首先利用各种技术壁垒、绿色壁垒等使我国外贸出口举步维艰。而欧盟东扩匈牙利的入盟无疑为我国提供新的契机：中国是匈牙利的第九大贸易伙伴。匈牙利加入欧盟对匈中经贸关系的发展既有有利影响，又有不利影响。我国应抓住机遇，及早部署，趋利避害，立足匈牙利，开拓欧盟市场。     

Australian Exports of Dairy Products

Abstract

Exports of dairy products are becoming increasingly important in terms of export earnings for Australia. The industry is the fourth highest foreign exchange earner compared to all Australia's food exports. However, Australian exports of dairy products account for about 67 per cent of the total Australian production of dairy products, and about 13 per cent of total world exports of dairy products. About 68 per cent of Australian dairy products exports are sold on Asian markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the challenging issues and opportunities for Australian exports of dairy products on world markets and to identify potential and emerging export markets for Australian dairy products. Australia is highly restricted on its access to world dairy product markets by the impact of export subsidies and other trade barriers of overseas markets. The current economic and political crises in Asia are also not favourable to maintain export sales on some of the Asian markets. The export support scheme in Australia has made exporting attractive relative to domestic sales. But it is anticipated that the termination of the scheme after June 2000, will reduce production and exports by 6 and 20 per cent, respectively in the short run. However, in the long run, resources will be efficiently used without government intervention and Australian dairy products will also be competitive on the domestic market. There is scope for greater market opportunities in the emerging markets in Asia and other parts of the world for Australian dairy products. Australia will also benefit from the agreement on international trade that directs exporting countries to reduce export subsidy and remove nontariff trade barriers on exports of dairy products. Australia should implement appropriate measures to inaease the milk yield per cow, to improve the quality of dairy products and to identify the need for market promotion and research in order to increase the volume of dairy product exports on world markets, especially in Asia and other potential markets such as Middle East, Africa, Europe and the Americas.     

The High-Value Commodity Export Effects of Standards in Africa

ABSTRACT

The stringency in standards usage, especially in developed markets, has trade effects, particularly for Africa. Thus, this study investigated the export effects of the EU standards for Africa in a two-step, Helpman et al. (2008) model for two high-value commodities. In all, 52 African countries were considered from 1995 to 2012. This study finds that fish standards are trade enhancing at the extensive margins, but not at the intensive margins. However, vegetable standards are trade inhibiting at both the extensive and intensive margins. Thus, these findings suggest that the impacts of standards on exports are commodity-specific.     

Access of Tunisian Fruits and Vegetables to the EU Market: Potential Impacts of the Revision of the Entry Price System

Agricultural trade flows worldwide continue to be subject to country restrictions of a tariff and non-tariff nature. This is more so in the case of fruits and vegetables in view of their multiplicity. This hinders the exports of these products, which is an important objective sought by the economy of Tunisia. This article simulates the potential consequences of a possible opening up of the European market borders on fruits and vegetables coming from Tunisia and the rest of the world (ROW), following alternative tariff reduction schemes of the entry price mechanism practiced by the EU, particularly in its ad-valorem duty. The analysis uses a partial equilibrium model that takes into consideration economic aspects related to the exports of these products, regardless of their interactions with other agricultural commodities. The model is composed of a series of behavioral equations describing excess demand and supply of fruits and vegetables of all trading partners and attempts to simulate “international” market equilibrium for these commodities. Tomatoes, oranges and peaches were selected for the analysis and three trading blocs were taken into consideration: The European Union, Tunisia and the ROW. Two policy scenarios were examined (a) reduction by one third of the ad-valorem tariff and (b) its total elimination. The results suggest that the impacts would be concentrated in specific periods, varying with products and regions. In addition to possible trade volumes, Tunisia and other countries may also gain in value from exports. A significant increase in the prices of peaches and tomatoes for Tunisia would result from the liberalization process of the EU market. Volumes and prices of EU domestic supplies would however exhibit moderate reductions.     

国际环境规制与倒逼型产业技术升级

本文引入产品的消费性负外部性和政府战略性补贴,拓展了Fischer和Serra(2000)消费外部性条件下政府最小技术标准制定行为的分析模型。欧美高于中国的环境标准,对中国传统产业产品的出口产生了重大影响,中国企业针对减少消费性负外部性进行技术研发投入,与欧盟不断提高的环境规制进行博弈。研究表明,政府通过对本国企业减少消费性负外部性的技术改进和技术创新的战略性补贴,可以推动传统产业实现"倒逼"型产业升级。     

Sweet and Sour Changes in Trade Regimes

Sugar is an important export for a number of developing countries, especially in the African, Caribbean and Pacific regions. In many of these countries, preferential access to the EU market has been a key factor to develop their sugar sectors. The recent and proposed changes to the international sugar trade regimes, particularly in the EU, are threatening this preferential access. We study the possible implications of such changes on ACP countries’ sugar production and exports by using a spatial price equilibrium model specifically developed for the sugar market. The results suggest that the effects of these changes are likely to vary according to the prevailing level of world sugar market price and according to whether ACP countries are current exporters to the EU.     

Food Safety Issues,Trade and WTO Rules: A Developing Country Perspective

The SPS Agreement and the related WTO dispute settlement mechanism are an important first step in strengthening the global trade architecture, bringing in greater transparency and orderly conditions to world food trade. However, implementation of the new trade rules has turned out to be a more complex task than the traditional market access issues handled by the WTO. Several factors, including inadequate financial and technical resources, have constrained devel‐oping countries from becoming effective participants in the implementation process, and there is widespread suspicion that SPS regulations are being used as hidden protectionist devices by developed countries. However, despite all the problems, some developing countries have been quite successful in penetrating developed country food markets; they have done so by accepting the consumer preferences and standards in quality‐sensitive high‐income markets and implementing domestic supply‐side measures. While making full use of available international assistance initiatives, developing countries should view the task of complying with SPS standards not just as a barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standards and market sophistication in the food export sector.     

直面纺织品贸易新壁垒

尽管2005年1月1日全球纺织品配额的取消给我国纺织品出口带来了福音,出口市场扩大了,出口量增加了。但是,随之而来的中欧、中美纺织品贸易摩擦又将中国拉回了配额时代。因为中国纺织品强大的国际竞争力,无可比拟的出口能力,发达国家和发展中国家仍会设置种种贸易壁垒,保护本国国内市场。我国企业应冷静面对出口新壁垒,采取有效措施积极应对。     

Understanding Developing Country Strategic Responses to the Enhancement of Food Safety Standards

This paper explores the competing concepts of ‘standards as barriers’ and ‘standards as catalysts’ in the context of food safety standards in international trade in agricultural and food products. Through a review of existing evidence of the impact of food safety standards on developing country exports of agricultural and food products and the results of a series of country‐ and product‐specific case studies, it is suggested that food safety standards can act as both a barrier to trade and the basis of competitive positioning for developing countries in international markets. This suggests that broad conclusions about the trade effects of food safety standards on developing countries are problematic, rather the level and ways in which agricultural and food exports are impacted can be product, country, standard and even firm‐specific.     

Potential FDI causing large distortions in domestic production

When a foreign firm enters a domestic market, either via exports or through foreign direct investment (FDI), one factor determining the most favourable entrance mode is the profitability of the market, which may not be directly observed by the foreign firm. If the domestic trade protection policy is within a certain range that causes the foreign entrant's decision to swing between the two entry modes, the final choice will depend on the foreign firm's belief about the profitability. In such a situation, a domestic incumbent firm wishing to prevent FDI will heavily distort its production downward to convince the foreign competitor that the market is not profitable. When making trade policy, such strategic behaviour on the part of the domestic firm should be taken into account.     

Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform

There have been a number of high profile food safety disputes in trade over the past decade. These include the widely publicized case at the World Trade Organization between the US and EU over hormone-treated beef. In particular, consumers in some industrialized countries have expressed concern over the health implications of consuming beef produced with antibiotics and other artificial supplements. Developing countries are affected in a significant way in how these concerns are addressed, as well as the balance between risk and safety reflected in how standards are set. This paper examines the impact of drug residue standards on trade in beef and the trade effect of setting harmonized international standards. We find that if international standards set by Codex were followed in antibiotics, global trade in beef would rise by over $3.2 billion. Among other developing countries, South African exports would rise by $160 million, Brazil's by $200 million, and Argentina's by over $300 million.     

Deutschlands Position in der Weltwirtschaft

In recent years, German exports have increased at a slower pace than before the global financial crisis. Moreover, the growth contribution of foreign trade was significantly smaller. This article examines how German exports have developed since the turn of the millennium, both globally and in specific regions, and relative to world trade. The results are threefold. A look at the most important trade partners reveals that, firstly, the European economies continue to absorb the largest part of German exports. Asia and the US follow as the largest sales markets outside Europe. Secondly, the German world market share is mainly driven by the development of Germany’s market position in the EU and the US; China and the remaining Asian countries play a subordinated role in this respect. Thirdly, a comparison between the growth rates of German exports and world trade is not always useful for statements about the change in the German global market share.     

欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响

本文运用面板数据的方法,研究了欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响,结论表明,欧盟在华直接投资促进了中国对欧盟各成员国的进出口贸易,但影响较小,影响中、欧贸易的主要因素是中国和欧盟各成员国的经济实力(GDP)。这表明欧盟在华投资企业的市场战略主要是针对中国广阔的国内市场的。文章最后部分对如何促进欧盟对华直接投资和扩大中、欧贸易提出了建议。     

Adjustment Problems in Developing Countries and the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement

Abstract

In this study, MERCOSUR's past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR's exports' growth potential in a liberalized EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR's exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalization.     

The Impacts of Alignment with Global Product Standards on Exports of Firms in Developing Countries

Complying with global standards and technical norms can be costly, making them potential impediments to trade, but it can also expand export opportunities. Two policies available to governments are alignment of domestic technical regulations with international standards and entry into mutual recognition agreements (MRAs). We study the effects of such decisions on the volume of exports to developed markets by firms in developing countries, using data from a World Bank firm‐level survey of awareness of global product norms. Both standards alignment and MRAs are associated with more exports to developed countries, but only MRAs significantly promote exports. This finding is consistent with theoretical predictions that MRAs should reduce the fixed costs of exporting more than standards alignment, permitting more firms to enter export markets in higher volumes. Governments in developing countries hoping to encourage exports may wish to favour the negotiation of mutual recognition of testing and certification procedures with major trading partners as a more affirmative avenue to expanding international sales.     

《欧盟--哥伦比亚、秘鲁自由贸易协定》透视 及其对中国的启示

《欧洲联盟及其成员国与哥伦比亚、秘鲁自由贸易协定》内容丰富,在货物与服务贸易、知识产权等方面设置高标准规定的同时,对可持续发展、技术援助及合作等国际新兴议题也有细致条款。该协定还首次开放地方当局采购,设立民间团体对话监督机制。这些举措有助于加快欧盟进军拉美市场的步伐,进一步促进欧盟与安第斯共同体两大区域组织间的经济融合。借鉴和参考其中的特色条文,势必有利于中国自贸协定文本的健全与完善,并为中国的拉美合作战略提供理论基础。     

Trade barriers or trade facilitators? The heterogeneous impact of food standards in international trade

Recent research shows that the effect of food standards can be heterogeneous across sectors or countries: they sometimes act as barriers to trade, but in other cases may lead to increased trade. I present empirical evidence on Norwegian seafood exports showing that foreign food standards, measured by sanitary and phytosanitary notifications to the WTO, generally have a negative impact on total exports, the number of exporters and their average exports. However, for fresh seafood, there is a positive counteracting effect. I present a theoretical explanation for this, suggesting that food standards reduce consumer uncertainty about quality and safety and therefore increase demand.     

The Economic Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union

Half a century has passed and Turkey is no further toward achieving EU membership. Under the mandate of the Barcelona Declaration, EU–Turkish industrial tariffs will be abolished, whilst agro‐food protectionism remains largely intact. Consequently, the direct impacts from a hypothetical EU accession scenario will be concentrated in agro‐food sectors, whilst their share of economic output in Turkey implies ‘secondary’ macro impacts. To this end, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework is employed to quantitatively reassess full Turkish accession. Unlike previous CGE studies, agriculture, fishing and food sectors are disaggregated, whilst significant advancements to the ‘standard’ model code are incorporated to capture the vagaries of agricultural factor, input and product markets. In addition, a realistic ‘baseline’ scenario is constructed including ‘up to date’ trade and domestic agricultural policy reforms prior to Turkish entry to the EU. The results show that trade‐led gains in Turkey are moderated due to tariff liberalisation prior to EU entry, whilst Turkey receives significant budgetary transfers from the CAP budget, which are ‘mirrored’ as EU‐27 costs. With additional migration effects, Turkish (EU‐27) production possibilities fall (rise), whilst real income per capita rises (falls).     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.