Human capital,innovation capability and economic growth in Portugal, 1960-2001

In maintaining that the main flaw in empirical studies on economic growth derives from the fact that they employ Solow-style neoclassical growth models, rather than testing actual endogenous growth theory, we examine the human capital-innovation-growth nexus, thus testing new growth theory more directly. We test its insights against the economic evolution of an individual country, Portugal, using time series data from 1960 to 2001. Estimates based on vector autoregressive and cointegration analysis seem to confirm that human capital and indigenous innovation efforts were enormously important to the economic growth process in Portugal during the period of study. In particular, the indirect effect of human capital through innovation, emerges here as being critical, showing that a reasonably high stock of human capital is necessary to enable a country to reap the benefits of its indigenous innovation efforts.Received: November 2003, Accepted: November 2004, JEL Classification: C22, J24, O30, O40 Correspondence to: Aurora A.C. TeixeiraThe authors are grateful to two anonymous referees, Paulo Brito and the participants of the 2003 Portuguese Society for Economics Research (SPiE) in Lisbon, Portugal for helpful comments and suggestions. CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.     

经济转轨中国有资本比重的最优路径选择——一个动态模型

This paper presents a dynamic model based on the utility maximum decisions of both the government and private sectors to study the optimal withdrawing path of state-owned capital in economic transition. Numerical simulation shows that: (1) an optimal transition path still exists when treating government and private sectors separately, (2) when the transition cost is higher than its critical value, the economy will never start a transition by itself. In addition, this analysis offers theoretical supports for some reform policies adopted by governments during transition. __________ Translated from Jingjixue Jikan 经济学(季刊) (China Economic(Quarterly)), 2007, 6(2): 561–580     

经济转轨进程中的政府治理:几个理论视角

制度之间具有互补性,市场化改革要求政府治理进行相应的改革.本文总结了几个决定政府治理性质的理论视角:政治经济纵向一体化的视角、公共选择理论的视角和市场结构理论的视角,更根本地,我们可以从人力资源配置的视角来看待一个社会政府治理的性质及其变革.对人力资本的重视是关于政府治理变迁理论的最新进展.     

The human capital and economic growth nexus: in East and South Asia

This study adopts a disaggregated regional focus to test for the human capital (HC)-growth nexus in selected nine Asian countries. It utilizes the Empirical Bayesian methodology which addresses not only the heterogeneity issue but it also utilizes the common structural priors of regional countries to yield ‘informationally’ efficient estimates of the impact of HC on the stock and levels of GDP. Various measures of HC are utilized to determine which of these produces a better explanation of economic growth in the two Asian regions. The study finds that primary and secondary education was more prominent in explaining the fluctuations of economic growth in East Asia, whereas tertiary and vocational education showed positive effects on economic growth in South Asia. Government expenditures on education were also found to positively affect economic growth in both regions. The results shed new evidence to establish that the differences in growth rates within East and South Asia are associated with differences in educational progression in the regions.     

Migration, human capital accumulation and economic development

We study how the possibility of migration changes the composition of human capital in sending countries, and how this affects development. In our model, growth is driven by productivity growth, which occurs via imitation or innovation. Both activities use the same types of skilled labour as input, albeit with different intensities. Heterogenous agents accumulate skills in response to economic incentives. Migration distorts these incentives, and the accumulation of human capital. This slows down, or even hinders, economic development. The effect is stronger, the farther away the country is from the technological frontier.     

Population and economic growth with human and physical capital investments

We present a two-sector endogenous growth model with human and physical capital accumulation to analyze the long-run relationship between population growth and real per capita income growth. Formal education and investment in physical capital are assumed to be two separate components of human capital production. Along the balanced growth path equilibrium, population change may have a positive, negative, or else neutral effect on economic growth depending on whether physical and human capital are complementary/substitutes for each other in the formation of new human capital and on their degree of complementarity.

人力资本结构对经济增长贡献率的实证分析

建立人力资本结构对经济增长贡献率的计量模型,采用相关数据对该模型进行实证分析。结果表明：中等教育对我国经济增长的贡献率较高,高等教育相对较小。因此,建立模型分析不同受教育年限的人力资本对经济增长的贡献率就非常具有现实意义。     

Private versus social returns to human capital: Education and economic growth in India

This paper investigates whether differences between private and social returns to education of government sector employees can contribute to an explanation of the “micro–macro paradox” in the literature on education and growth. We hypothesize that in India educated people find privately rewarding jobs in a sector in which social returns are low, namely the government sector. This could help explain high returns to education at the micro level and small or negative coefficients on education growth in growth regressions at the macro level. The empirical results, which are consistent with this hypothesis, are based on an analysis of state-level data from India spanning 40 years.     

Human capital use,innovation, patent protection,and economic growth in multiple regions

We provide the first theoretical analysis of the effects of human capital use, innovative activity, and patent protection, on economic growth in a model with many regions. In each region, consumers have constant relative risk-aversion preferences, there is no human capital growth, and there are three kinds of manufacturing activities involving the production of blueprints for inputs (machines), the inputs themselves, and a single final consumption good. Our analysis generates four results. For any given region, we first describe the balanced growth path (BGP) equilibrium and show that the BGP growth rate depends negatively on the rate at which patents expire. Second, we characterize the transitional dynamics in our model. Third, we determine the value of the patent expiry rate that maximizes the equilibrium growth rate of a region. Finally, we show that a policy of offering perpetual patent protection does not necessarily maximize social welfare in a region.     

Gender gap,capital accumulation and the demographic transition

This paper focuses on explaining the demographic transition and some of the broad patterns that are associated with it. We present an endogenous growth model that incorporates altruism and son preference within the family as well as gender wage gap and gender wage discrimination in the labour market. We show that with the accumulation of physical capital and human capital, the output share of mental labour increases and the gender wage gap narrows. In the early stages of economic development, gender discrimination is becoming prevalent and the substitution effect of capital accumulation, which raises the cost of child rearing, is dominated by the income effect, so the growth rate of population increases with income. When the degree of gender wage discrimination starts to decline, the increased cost of child rearing induces families to invest more in the human capital of children and the growth rate of the population falls. The quantitative analysis shows that gender wage discrimination is indeed an important contributor to the demographic transition.     

Constitutions and economic reforms in transition: an empirical study

Experiences of countries undergoing post-socialist transition in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Central and Southwestern Asia, during the last 17 years, reveal great variety in economic reform paths and their successful implementation. At different moments of transition varying constitutional rules have also emerged in these countries. In our empirical study we find a significant relationship between constitutional rules and the economic reform process in post-socialist countries of Europe and Asia after 1989. In principle, the results confirm the arguments of the so-called negative constitutionalists, according to which the main function of the constitution for economic reforms in transition is its functioning as a commitment mechanism. The conclusions constitute an important step towards verification of different and often conflicting theories proposed by constitutional economists and allow to formulate practical recommendations for constitutional legislators and other actors capable of influencing constitutional change in countries encompassed by the study.

Economic complexity,human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data

Economic complexity reflects a country’s production capabilities and plays an important role in economic growth. This article measures the economic complexity of 210 countries using the method of reflections, and investigates the impact of economic complexity and human capital on economic growth. The measurement results show that there are significant differences regarding the level of complexity among countries. High-income economies have higher complexity than low- and middle-income economies. The empirical findings demonstrate that economic complexity and different levels of human capital have positive effects on long- and short-term growth. A positive interaction effect on economic growth exists between economic complexity and human capital. In addition, secondary education as a proxy for human capital has a relatively greater positive direct effect and a much stronger interactive effect with complexity on economic growth. In addition, the magnitude of the interaction effect between economic complexity and human capital on long- and short-term growth increases as the revealed comparative advantage threshold grows.     

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for human capital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.     

Technical change and wage premiums amongst skilled labour: Evidence from the economic transition

I present reduced-form and structural evidence that the reorganization of the Russian economy in the post-transitional period increased the demand on law and business graduates. This demand shock provides a novel unified explanation of the Russian wage structure for 1985–2015. I then show that this shock is a common feature of all transitional economies, and it contributed to the transformational recession. The demand behaviour is identified with a new skill-biased technical change model of demand for skills with three production inputs (high school graduates and bachelor-level educations with two majors), showing that a technology shift that favours a particular skill might emerge within the skilled group rather than between skilled and unskilled. This is relevant because similar shifts (e.g., data scientists vs. liberal arts) emerge today in the frontier economies that adopt new general-purpose technologies (e.g., machine learning). Thus, this paper informs policymakers today on tools to counteract a potential drop in economic equality and performance that result from this adoption. Lastly, because of similarities between the mechanics of the transition and the 2022 sanctions to discourage Russia's war effort, my results highlight the importance of additional sanctions against the education system to prevent the regime's structural adaptation and preservation.     

Human capital externalities Evidence from the transition economy of Russia1

The paper tests for the existence of human capital externalities using a micro‐level approach: the Mincerian wage regression augmented with the average level of education in cities. To solve identification problems arising from the endogeneity of average education, the study exploits a natural experiment provided by the process of economic transition: average education at the end of communism can be seen as exogenous in respect of wages prevailing after the start of transition. Our empirical results based on the RLMS data show that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of city residents with a university degree results in an increase of wages of city residents by about 1 percent.     

历史沉淀成本与经济转型的路径依赖及其超越

本文旨在突破新古典理性选择的经济转型研究方法,再次阐述计划经济体制下历史沉淀成本对经济转型的锁定效应。由新古典经济理论和规范决策理论可知,以前投资的历史或沉淀成本已经支付过了,因其不构成机会成本,所以不应该影响当前或未来的经济转型决策。然而,在经济转型时期,决策者并不能够根据经济转型的预期边际收益和边际成本进行理性决策,不仅需要考虑因资产专用性,以及由此产生的交易成本的阻碍影响,还需要考虑过去发生的历史沉淀成本的阻碍影响。因此,为了加快计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型的进程,制度或政策制定的基本原则应着眼于历史沉淀成本管理,从而切断路径依赖。     

中国转型期经济波动的制度变迁解说

中国经济波动带有典型的转型期特点,经济体制转型的长期性和渐进性蕴含了经济的结构性特征,导致这一时期经济波动体现出鲜明的转型期特征:通货紧缩和经济过热交替出现;三次产业结构波幅不一、上游产业过热与下游产业萧条并存;价格传导时滞延长、传导程度减弱、总体价格水平上升有限.     

Human capital, market imperfections, and labor reallocation in transition

In this paper, we investigate the effects of human capital and factor market imperfections on household decisions regarding labor use and reallocation in transition countries. We develop a model that accounts explicitly for heterogeneity in the supply of labor and analyze its impact on the allocation of labor. Furthermore, the effects of imperfections in the capital and labor markets on the reallocation process are modeled. Using a dataset based on a countrywide representative survey of Hungarian rural households, we estimate the effects empirically and find them to be important. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 745–774.     

Happiness,religion and economic transition

In an important paper, Lelkes (2006) examines the impact of transition on happiness in Hungary using two Hungarian household survey datasets for the years 1992 and 1998. In particular, Lelkes examines the impact of religious behaviour on self‐reported well‐being. Using ordered logit models, Lelkes estimates and presents the marginal effect associated with membership in the highest ‘fully satisfied’ category, and finds that religious people have a consistently higher probability of being ‘fully satisfied’ than others. This effect is stable in the 1992 and 1998 samples. The goal of this article is to expand and extend Lelkes' earlier work in several ways. First, we use a different dataset. Second, we examine the effect of religious behaviour on well‐being after transition not only for Hungary, but also for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. Third, unlike Lelkes, we have access to information indicating whether respondents report being financially better off after transition. With a different dataset, additional country samples, and a measure of financial well‐being, we are able to confirm and extend Lelkes' finding that religious behaviour is associated with improved well‐being after transition in all countries we examine.