The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mixing Sunnis and Shias: A Bayesian Errors-in-Variables Approach

How damaging is the Sunni/Shia split to the economies of Islamic countries? Is it better to be one or the other? Or is it better to have an even balance between the two? Answering these questions is complicated by the fact that the data are often missing or imprecisely measured. We employ the technique of Bayesian data augmentation to circumvent these two problems, and find that properly controlling for these features in the data leads to drastically different conclusions than what is found using ordinary least squares. We find that there is nothing in the differential nature of Sunni or Shia Islam to make one more economically prosperous than the other. Nor do we find any support for the popular hypothesis that Sunnis and Shias cannot mix.     

Relative wages, labor specialization and bargaining patterns

The goal of this paper is to study the effects of centralized and decentralized bargaining patterns on wage inequality when there are two different types of labor, skilled and unskilled. We present two models where labor is specialized between firms, that is, there are two types of firms, each one employing one type of labor. We show that the revenue shares of the production factors in each type of firm and the union power are crucial determinants of the relative wage. In contrast, the relative expected wage is the same across models and bargaining patterns.     

浅谈如何加强监管杜绝财务腐败

财务腐败是指一个单位因资金监管不到位出现漏洞,或单位的财务管理混乱、不规范而产生的奢侈浪费、挪用公款、贪污、国有资产流失等财务腐败行为。一个国家要保持政治稳定和经济发展,就必须认真解决腐败问题。要杜绝财务腐败的产生,就要从财务人员的自身素质建设、财务制度的建设、加强审计工作的力度等方面进行全面预防。     

The effect of religiosity and religious festivals on positional concerns – an experimental investigation of Ramadan

This article examines the effect of religion on positional concerns using survey experiments. We focus on two of the dimensions of religion – degree of religiosity and religious festivals. By conducting the experiments during both the most important day of Ramadan (the Night of Power) and a day outside Ramadan, we find that Ramadan overall has a small and negative impact on positional concerns. Detailed analyses based on the sorting of individuals’ degree of religiosity reveal that the decrease in the degree of positional concerns during Ramadan is mainly explained by a decrease in positionality among individuals with a low degree of religiosity.     

Structural Problems in Financing Development: Issues Relating to India

This paper argues that the process of financing development in India increased the fragility of the financial market. Consequently, the need arose for the government to implement policies that would reduce that fragility, and also to introduce strong enforceable bankruptcy laws, in order to prevent the emergence of corruption. It appears that the recent capital market reform did not give adequate attention to reducing the fragility of the financial market.     

也说腐败发展的库兹涅茨曲线

在经济发展的过程中,腐败现象存在一种倒U型的发展轨迹。制度建设的滞后,一方面导致了有害于社会发展的腐败的盛行,另一方面也使得腐败成为了改革和发展的润滑剂。而到了经济增长成熟的阶段,随着制度建设的完善,腐败会逐渐下降。     

How does economic transition breed corruption?

Based on the existing literature, this paper discusses the relationship between economic transition and corruption, and argues that economic transition is one of the main roots of the spread of corruption in transitional China. It divides economic transition into four parts, and examines various channels by which economic transition breeds corruption opportunities. By applying the case statistical analysis method to analyze 594 major corruption cases, it finds the most corruption-prone areas, and provides some empirical evidence on the existence of such channels.     

民主改革以来西藏的经济发展与前瞻

半个世纪前的民主改革使西藏社会经济实现了巨大的发展和进步,2008年的经济总量较50年前增长近66倍,为我国经济增长较快速省区。50年来,西藏产业结构及空间布局逐步优化,基础设施不断改善,人民生活水平持续提高,生态环境得到有效保护。但需认识到,西藏今天的经济成就,是在国家及兄弟省市全力支持下取得的,自我发展能力不足,发展区位和自然条件较差的问题依然突出。西藏未来的经济发展,需按照既定目标,继续坚持改革开放和"两个长期不变"基本方针,实施新型"跨越式"发展战略,加大城乡基础设施建设力度,引导优势、特色产业发展,提升城镇化水平,加快"一点、三线、四区"区域经济格局形成,走与西藏实际相符合的可持续发展之路。     

Balance-of-payments policies and structural reforms: An adaptive-control model for India

An adaptive-control model, where parameters of the model will change in response to policy optimizations, is constructed for India and solutions of the optimization process provide the planned paths for some of the most important macro policy instruments of the economy. Comparisons of the planned paths and the actual behavior of the economy show that the capitalistic reform process in India is not a success, but a mixed economic plan would be more beneficial for the economy.     

初始排污权定价的分散决策模型

提出利用分散决策模型进行排污权在一级市场的定价,并证明了其合理性。在明确排污权总量的条件下,利用"多对象、多轮次"的"试错法"得到排污权的价格,并给出具体的实施步骤。结果显示:该方法具有操作性强、成本低的优点,是一种可在完全竞争市场中进行排污权定价的合理方法。     

中国经济在改革发展中呈现效率驱动型特征——二论对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的理论解释

现有文献表明,大多数学者认为改革以来中国经济快速增长属于要素投入驱动型增长．不可能持续。对此,本文在以前结构转换研究的基础上,指出通常使用的索洛增长因素核算方程中隐含的效率提高类型与实际不符,由此可导致严重低估实际的综合效率提高;而由Klenowand Rodriguez—Clare（1997）发展的核算方法才是封中国经济增长因素进行分解的正确方法。然後对以此方法对中国经济增长因素分解测算的结果进行了详细分析,据此得出了三个基本结论：第一、改革以来中国经济实现了效率提高型快速增长,综合效率提高作出了主要贡献,要素投入也有一定的贡献,但比重较小;第二、改革以来中国经济的增长模式不同于改革前,後者的特征被再次证明主要是依靠要素投入;第三、改革以来中国经济的综合效率提高,主要来源于二元结构转换效应和经济体制转轨效应,教育和科研开发的贡献属于成长中的因素。所以,也不同于发达市场经济的常规增长方式。这些就是中国式综合效率提高驱动型经济增长的特征。     

Economic thoughts from an East Asian perspective: a conceptual framework of viability and development strategy

This paper attempts an analytical framework centred on the relationship between the concept of viability and choice of development strategy. On the basis of a critical review on the mainstream literature in economic development, it presents the conceptual framework with an emphasis on elaborating the dichotomy of ‘comparative advantage defying (CAD) strategy’ versus ‘comparative advantage following (CAF) strategy’. Empirical experiences of economic development in China and other East Asian economies in the contemporary era are discussed in the context of the conceptual framework.     

Seeds of Corruption – Do Market Institutions Matter?

Ten years into the transition process, corruption is now recognized to be a pervasive phenomenon thatcan seriously jeopardize the best intentionedreform efforts. Because of the complex anddeep political economy dynamics surroundingthe process transition economies areundergoing it is essential for policy-makersto understand the causes of corruption. Thispaper develops an integrated analyticalframework of the role basic marketinstitutions play as determinants ofrent-seeking and illicit behavior intransition economies. Using data onlyrecently available on the incidence ofcorruption and institutional development inthese economies, we provide preliminaryevidence on both the systemic links betweendevelopment of market institutions andincentives for corruption and the relativeimportance of such institutions. The mainlesson from our analysis is that awell-established system of marketinstitutions – one characterized by clear andtransparent rules, fully functioning checksand balances, including strong enforcementmechanisms, and a robust competitiveenvironment – reduces rent-seekingopportunities and, in turn, the incentives forcorruption. The empirical results suggestthat high barriers to new business entrantsand soft budget constraints on incumbent firmsare particularly important institutionalfactors engendering opportunities andincentives for corruption. As in otherstudies, the empirical results also supportthe notion that economic development andmaturation of democratic processes both tempercorruption, as does, to a lesser extent,openness to trade.