Brexit: Tracking and disentangling the sentiment towards leaving the EU

On 23 June, 2016, the UK held a referendum to decide whether to stay in the European Union or leave. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this referendum had major consequences for public policy, investment decisions, and currency markets. We discuss some of the subtleties involved in smoothing and disentangling poll data in light of the problem of tracking the dynamics of the intention to Brexit, and propose a multivariate singular spectrum analysis method that produces trendlines on the unit simplex. The trendline yield via multivariate singular spectrum analysis is shown to resemble that of local polynomial smoothing, and singular spectrum analysis presents the nice feature of disentangling the dynamics directly into components that can be interpreted as changes in public opinion or sampling error. The merits and disadvantages of some different approaches for obtaining smooth trendlines on the unit simplex are contrasted, in terms of both local polynomial smoothing and multivariate singular spectrum analysis.     

DELIBERATIVE MONETARY VALUATION: IN SEARCH OF A DEMOCRATIC AND VALUE PLURAL APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

The use of deliberative methods to assess environmental values in monetary terms has been motivated by the potential for small group discussion to help with preference formation and the inclusion of non‐economic values. In this review, two broad approaches are identified: preference economisation and preference moralisation. The former is analytical, concentrates upon issues of poor respondent cognition and produces a narrow conception of value linked to utilitarianism. The latter emphasises political legitimacy, appeals to community values and tends to privilege arguments made in the public interest. Both approaches are shown to embrace forms of value convergence, which undermine the prospects for value pluralism. As a result exclusion and predefinition of values dominates current practice. In order to maintain democratic credentials, the importance attributed to monetary value needs to be left as an open question to be addressed as part of a process determining an “agreement to pay”. To this end we identify a discourse‐based approach as a third way consistent with the democratic and value plural potential of deliberative monetary valuation.     

Preferences of citizens for public expenditures on elementary and secondary education

This paper presents an empirical analysis of citizens' preferences for public elementary and secondary education expenditures. Survey data collected in conjunction with a school tax referendum and a multinomial probit random utility model are used to make inferences concerning the preference mappings of citizens. These estimated mappings, in turn, imply unique estimates of the demands of citizens for public education expenditures. Citizens' beliefs concerning whether expenditures are wisely spent and will affect school quality are seen to be important determinants of demand. The impact of citizens' perceptions of tax costs is also considered.     

QUALITATIVE AND MIXED‐METHODS RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS: SURPRISING GROWTH,PROMISING FUTURE

Qualitative research in economics has traditionally been unimportant compared to quantitative work. Yet there has been a small explosion in use of quantitative approaches in the past 10–15 years, including ‘mixed‐methods’ projects which use qualitative and quantitative methods in combination. This paper surveys the growing use of qualitative methods in economics and closely related fields, aiming to provide economists with a useful roadmap through major sets of qualitative methods and how and why they are used. We review the growing body of economic research using qualitative approaches, emphasizing the gains from using qualitative‐ or mixed‐methods over traditional ‘closed‐ended’ approaches. It is argued that, although qualitative methods are often portrayed as less reliable, less accurate, less powerful and/or less credible than quantitative methods, in fact, the two sets of methods have their own strengths, and how much can be learned from one type of method or the other depends on specific issues that arise in studying the topic of interest. The central message of the paper is that well‐done qualitative work can provide scientifically valuable and intellectually helpful ways of adding to the stock of economic knowledge, especially when applied to research questions for which they are well suited.     

Capitalization and the Voucher: An Analysis of Precinct Returns from California''s Proposition 174

In 1993, Californians voted on a school voucher initiative. We hypothesize that homeowners in good school districts understood the voucher to be a threat to their property values and thus voted against it. Precinct returns from Los Angeles County confirm this hypothesis. We also examine an alternative hypothesis explaining the relationship between school quality and precinct returns. According to the alternative, voters perceived the initiative to be a referendum on public school quality. To distinguish between the two hypotheses, we compare the voting patterns of homeowners and renters. The comparison does not favor one hypothesis over the other.     

Assessing social support networks in cross-national comparative surveys: Measurement issues

In recent years many cross-national comparative surveys, such as Gender and Generation Programme, International Social Survey Programme, European Quality of Life Survey, or General Social Survey, have included assessment of social support networks. Generally, two approaches were used; the name generator approach and the role relation approach. As more cross-country surveys are conducted every year, it may seem reasonable to use such data sets, since they provide high quality comparisons across countries. However, one should pay close attention to the measurement instruments, as these may cause unintentional but systematic variability in the observed data. While the data from each survey can be of high quality ??per se??, we claim that results from these surveys are not comparable, owing to their different measurement approaches and survey instruments. In this paper we present data from several experiments which show that scientific findings from these surveys depend significantly on questionnaire design.     

COMBINING REVEALED AND STATED PREFERENCE DATA TO ESTIMATE THE NONMARKET VALUE OF ECOLOGICAL SERVICES: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE

Abstract This paper reviews the marketing, transportation and environmental economics literature on the joint estimation of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data. The RP and SP approaches are first described with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each. Recognizing these strengths and weaknesses, the potential gains from combining data are described. A classification system for combined data that emphasizes the type of data combination and the econometric models used is proposed. A methodological review of the literature is pursued based on this classification system. Examples from the environmental economics literature are highlighted. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of jointly estimated model is then presented. Suggestions for future research, in particular opportunities for application of these models to environmental quality valuation, are presented.     

Estimation of a social discount rate for Turkey

Cost-benefit analysis is probably the most comprehensive method of economic evaluation for public projects. Social discount rate, which makes it possible to compare the social benefits and costs extended over a period of time, has a key role in the allocation of public resources between alternative ends via cost-benefit analysis. Public sector needs to use the correct social discount rate in order to achieve a fair allocation of the fiscal burden between generations. While a high social discount rate may place a heavy fiscal burden on future generations, a low social discount rate may cause unfeasible projects to be approved. However, although social discount rate is a crucial parameter for public project appraisals, there is a lack of updated social discount rate for Turkey. In this study, the social rate of time preference approach is used to estimate this social discount rate. To this aim, both the personal taxation and the food demand methods are employed in order to estimate the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, which is a critical determinant of the social rate of time preference based on the Ramsey formula. The overall results show that the social discount rate estimated using the personal tax method is 4.88%, whereas it is 4.41% using the food demand method. Since the level of tax evasion is very high in Turkey, we recommend that the value indicated by the food demand method should be used employing the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration procedure.     

Managerial Behaviour Research in Private and Public Sectors: Distinctiveness, Disputes and Directions

A managerial behaviour approach is identified that has sought to understand managerial work by analysing the day‐to‐day behaviour of individual managers: what do managers do? It is argued that this approach is distinctive and that its distinctiveness is valuable and has not received adequate attention. The distinctiveness is defined by its research background, object, focus and methodology. The managerial behaviour approach has developed from research over nearly fifty years: long enough for there to have been a variety of disputes about what has, or ought to have been, achieved. The relevance of these criticisms and what later research has done to meet them is assessed. Recent research directions are identified and suggestions are made for building on the distinctiveness. It is concluded that the institutional embeddedness of managerial work should attract further scholarly attention, and that the contribution of researchers in the public sector, who come from a differentdisciplinary background, needs to be integrated with that of researchers from organizational behaviour as they can contribute new conceptual approaches, which could help to revivify this field of research.     

A Monte Carlo filtering application for systematic sensitivity analysis of computable general equilibrium results

ABSTRACT

Parameter uncertainty has fuelled criticisms on the robustness of results from computable general equilibrium models. This has led to the development of alternative sensitivity analysis approaches. Researchers have used Monte Carlo analysis for systematic sensitivity analysis because of its flexibility. But Monte Carlo analysis may yield biased simulation results. Gaussian quadratures have also been widely applied, although they can be difficult to apply in practice. This paper applies an alternative approach to systematic sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo filtering and examines how its results compare to both Monte Carlo and Gaussian quadrature approaches. It does so via an application to rural development policies in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. We find that Monte Carlo filtering outperforms the conventional Monte Carlo approach and is a viable alternative when a Gaussian quadrature approach cannot be applied or is too complex to implement.     

Cumulative and CUB Models for Rating Data: A Comparative Analysis

Ordinal measurements as ratings, preference and evaluation data are very common in applied disciplines, and their analysis requires a proper modelling approach for interpretation, classification and prediction of response patterns. This work proposes a comparative discussion between two statistical frameworks that serve these goals: the established class of cumulative models and a class of mixtures of discrete random variables, denoted as CUB models, whose peculiar feature is the specification of an uncertainty component to deal with indecision and heterogeneity. After surveying their definition and main features, we compare the performances of the selected paradigms by means of simulation experiments and selected case studies. The paper is tailored to enrich the understanding of the two approaches by running an extensive and comparative analysis of results, relative advantages and limitations, also at graphical level. In conclusion, a summarising review of the key issues of the alternative strategies and some final remarks are given, aimed to support a unifying setting.     

Testable implications of general equilibrium models: An integer programming approach

Focusing on the testable revealed preference restrictions on the equilibrium manifold, we show that the rationalizability problem is NP-complete. Subsequently, we present a mixed integer programming (MIP) approach to characterize the testable implications of general equilibrium models. Attractively, this MIP approach naturally applies to settings with any number of observations and any number of agents. This is in contrast with existing approaches in the literature. We also demonstrate the versatility of our MIP approach in terms of dealing with alternative types of assignable information. Finally, we illustrate our methodology on a data set drawn from the US economy. In this application, an important focus is on the discriminatory power of the rationalizability tests under study.     

Non‐Mandatory Approaches to Environmental Protection

The approach to environmental protection has been evolving from a regulation‐driven, adversarial 'government‐push' approach to a more proactive approach involving voluntary and often 'business‐led' initiatives to self‐regulate their environmental performance. This has been accompanied by increasing provision of environmental information about firms and products to enlist market forces and communities in creating a demand for corporate environmental self‐regulation by signaling their preferences for environmentally friendly firms. This paper provides an overview of the non‐mandatory approaches being used for environmental protection and surveys the existing theoretical literature analyzing the economic efficiency of such approaches relative to mandatory approaches. It also discusses empirical findings on the factors motivating self‐regulation by firms and its implications for their economic and environmental performance. It examines the existing evidence on the extent to which information disclosure is effective in generating pressures from investors and communities on firms to improve their environmental performance.     

Assessing the social impact of charitable organizations—four alternative approaches

• There is increased societal pressure on charities to improve performance. The questions that they must ask are: (1) Who is our audience? (2) What evaluation measures are important to the organization? and (3) What evaluation measures are best for the organization? There are a number of different approaches available for assessing performance, ranging from social accounting to more informal qualitative assessments of whether the organization's mission is being achieved. This paper draws on the industry and academic discussion of evaluations of nonprofit organizations to develop a four‐category typology of alternative approaches for audiences. It then identifies the benefits and limitations of each. The goal is to identify the steps that charities should use to determine which approach is most suited to their specific circumstances. It is proposed that a collaborative development of evaluation criteria, of whichever type, may be most appropriate as will draw together the experiences and resources of multiple parties, and may have broader appeal than evaluations proposed by individual nonprofits.

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joined-up Government of utilities: a meta-review on a public–public partnership and inter-municipal cooperation in the water and wastewater industries

Private-sector participation in public services delivery has been criticized due to unfulfilled expectations. In response, joined-up government is being introduced as an alternative approach to providing water and wastewater services. This approach involves the establishment of horizontal (i.e. inter-municipal cooperation) and vertical (i.e. public–public partnership) integration. Drawing on a meta-review focused on the water and wastewater industries, this study shows that both arrangements have positive aspects, such as cost savings. However, contractual schemes and inter-departmental coordination efforts must be carefully managed or they will fail. In addition, research on cooperation between public bodies is scarce and must be better coordinated concerning study aims and methods.     

Modernization,Neighbourhood Management and Social Inclusion

Social inclusion is a central goal of the UK New Labour Government, which it is aiming to achieve partly through neighbourhood interventions. This article argues that achieving social inclusion requires a combination of New Labour policies for democratic renewal and tackling social exclusion and it identifies four dimensions along which activity towards social inclusion can be judged. The article draws on evidence from one English city to highlight the contribution of neighbourhood policies and programmes to social inclusion. It considers the strengths and limitations of three approaches and concludes that to achieve social inclusion the collective capacity of the three approaches is essential. However, closer examination of the Government's proposals suggests several obstacles to achieving their combined potential. A particular obstacle is the marginalization of local government and its unique contribution and the article concludes that without this New Labour is will fail to deliver on a key component of social inclusion.     

A Review on Possible Approaches for Detecting Early Warning Signs in Projects

In this paper, we attempt to provide an overview of the full extent of early warning detection approaches, which are directly or indirectly addressed in the literature. These approaches can aid project managers in taking corrective actions timely enough for preventing failures. The study is based on a review of the current literature within the field of early warning in project management and our own experiences gained from practice. An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and their applications in different contexts are also performed. We conclude that the choice of the most effective approach is arguably dependent on the type of project, organizational culture, and the project environment.     

Survey evidence on the rationality of expectations

Data on expectations collected by business surveys offer the opportunity to test the rational expectation hypothesis. Tests directly based on qualitative data are not powerful because of the nature of the data. An alternative method is proposed in this paper. We apply the usual orthogonality conditions of rationality to the unobservable variables which are assumed to trigger the categorical responses of surveys when they cross certain thresholds. To implement the test, an original estimation method for latent variable models using indicators is required. The results show that the Hypothesis is not always rejected for the expectations of changes in demand drawn from surveys of French manufacturing industry.     

Non-parametric models for spatial efficiency

This research develops a nonconvex model for measuring the spatial efficiency of siting decisions and demonstrates the virtues of such measurements in comparison to those of convex approaches. Working with a case study from the public sector, we develop relative spatial efficiency (RSE) models which access the sufficiency of a location decision in relation to a best practice decision on the efficient (or most accessible) frontier. The paper also compares the results of the nonconvex methodology with that of the convex model and suggests the strengths and weaknesses of each in terms of the type of support they offer to decisionmakers concerned with actual siting decisions.The authors express their gratitude to Professors, Knox Lovell, Gerard Rushton, and two anonymous referrees for their helpful comments on an earlier draft.