HOW DO RATING AGENCIES’ DECISIONS IMPACT STOCK MARKETS? A META‐ANALYSIS

The purpose of this study is to examine how credit rating agencies’ decisions impact the stock market using a systematic and quantitative review of existing empirical studies. Specifically, we employ a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to investigate the extent and nature of the effect of rating agencies’ decisions on the stock market. We survey 62 studies published between 1978 and 2015. Our first finding is that the cumulative average abnormal returns calculated from this empirical literature are affected by publication bias. After controlling for publication bias, the main findings of our meta‐analysis indicate that negative rating decisions cause statistically significant negative abnormal returns. This evidence suggests an informational effect. Our results also indicate that positive rating decisions do not have a significant effect. Finally, the MRA results reveal the importance of several factors related to primary study design, as well as to the nature of the data.     

FDI技术溢出效应的门限特征研究——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

已有的关于FDI(对外直接投资)技术溢出效应研究文献中,大多数学者认为FDI技术溢出会显著地促进东道主国家的经济增长,然而,利用中国1997年-2009年的省际面板数据,对FDI技术溢出效应进行研究却发现,FDI技术溢出效应在中国不同的地区存在显著差异;运用门限回归模型,从地区经济发展水平、地区开放程度、地区人力资本存量、地区金融发展程度等四个方面检验了FDI技术溢出效应的门限特征,并测算出了引发积极FDI技术外溢效应的门限水平。     

Direct and indirect effects of FDI in emerging European markets: A survey and meta-analysis

We review a large body of literature dealing with the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economies during their transformation from a command economic system toward a market system. We report the results of a meta-analysis based on the literature on externalities from FDI. The studies on emerging European markets covered in our survey report direct and indirect FDI effects weakening over time, similarly as in other FDI destination countries. This is imputable to a publication bias that is detected and to the fact that more sophisticated methods and more controls can be used once a sufficient time span is available. Panel studies are likely to find relatively lower spillover effects. The choice of the research design (definition of firm performance and foreign firm presence) matters. More specific to the sampled studies is the role played by forward and backward spillovers which dominate other channels in driving FDI externalities.     

FDI forward spillover effects in emerging markets: A comparative meta-analysis of China and Eastern Europe

Using two unique datasets of 530 forward estimates from 19 studies on China and 942 forward estimates from 28 studies on Eastern European transition economies, this study quantitatively analyzes foreign direct investment forward spillover effects, accounting for various biases and firm attributes in existing empirical results using a meta-regression analysis. We find that aggregation bias, misspecification bias, endogeneity bias (including simultaneity bias and omitted-variable bias), and publication bias, as well as firm attributes, contribute to the heterogeneity in forward spillover estimates; and that the preferred forward spillover effects are positive but nonsignificant. Interestingly, the preferred forward spillover effect is likely to be much larger in Eastern European transition economies than in China.     

BANK COMPETITION AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank competition should affect financial stability, and dozens of researchers have attempted to evaluate the relationship empirically. We collect 598 estimates of the competition‐stability nexus reported in 31 studies and analyse the literature using meta‐analysis methods. We control for 35 aspects of study design and employ Bayesian model averaging to tackle the resulting model uncertainty. Our findings suggest that the definition of financial stability and bank competition used by researchers influences their results in a systematic way. The choice of data, estimation methodology, and control variables also affects the reported coefficient. We find evidence for moderate publication bias. Taken together, the estimates reported in the literature suggest little interplay between competition and stability, even when corrected for publication bias and potential misspecifications.     

国内投入、中间进口与FDI垂直溢出——基于非竞争型投入产出表的实证研究

本文通过将FDI垂直溢出进行分解,并考虑投入产出效率的动态变化,检验了中国FDI溢出效应。结果表明:不存在线性水平溢出,但不排除非线性的可能性;不存在倒U形的技术溢出特征,外企通过购买国内投入而产生的后向溢出是最重要的技术溢出渠道,且对产出的影响成非线性,而外企通过购买中间进口而产生的后向溢出则可能存在门槛效应;外企通过提供中间进口而产生的前向溢出是否存在并不确定,由线性溢出回归可知外企通过提供国内投入而产生的前向溢出为负。     

WHY IS THERE A LACK OF EVIDENCE ON KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS FROM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT?

Empirical analyses of knowledge spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) offer mixed results; they find positive, neutral and negative FDI spillover effects. This lack of evidence mainly comes from the results of firm‐level panel data analysis. This is important since this approach seems to be the most appropriate for estimating FDI spillovers. The paper takes a look at recent substantive and methodological developments in FDI spillover analysis, which have brought some more optimistic results with regard to FDI spillovers, and can help in further development in this field. The main substantive development relates to the introduction of a broad variety of sources of firm heterogeneity (foreign affiliates as well as local firms) in the analysis. Others include differentiation between vertical (inter‐industry) and horizontal (intra‐industry) spillovers, and host country absorptive capacity for knowledge spillovers. Methodological developments relate to distinguishing between technological/knowledge and productivity spillovers, improvement of modelling and estimation methods, and an increased amount and quality of data.     

FDI溢出对高经济产出区的增长影响

运用空间Durbin模型和极大似然估计技术,以1991-2012年大长三角25城市和大珠三角21城市面板数据,对比检验了FDI溢出与城市生产率间的基本关系。发现：FDI对本地城市增长正效应显著存在并随时间增强,其空间溢出显著但在二地区行为相反;空间依赖在城市生产率增长中有增强趋势,但在二地区方向相异;FDI提高了二地区城市增长的条件收敛速度;空间溢出在二地区的核心和外围都存在但表现各异并有不同演变。上述结论对于二地区引进FDI和促进城市发展具有重要政策含义。     

ALCOHOL MARKETING,ADOLESCENT DRINKING AND PUBLICATION BIAS IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES: A CRITICAL SURVEY USING META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper presents a meta‐analysis of prospective cohort (longitudinal) studies of alcohol marketing and adolescent drinking, which accounts for publication bias. The paper provides a summary of 12 primary studies of the marketing–drinking relationship. Each primary study surveyed a sample of youth to determine baseline drinking status and marketing exposure, and re‐surveyed the youth to determine subsequent drinking outcomes. Logistic analyses provide estimates of the odds ratio for effects of baseline marketing variables on adolescent drinking at follow‐up. Using meta‐regression analysis, two samples are examined in this paper: 23 effect‐size estimates for drinking onset (initiation); and 40 estimates for other drinking behaviours (frequency, amount, bingeing). Marketing variables include ads in mass media, promotion portrayals, brand recognition and subjective evaluations by survey respondents. Publication bias is assessed using funnel plots that account for ‘missing’ studies, bivariate regressions and multivariate meta‐regressions that account for primary study heterogeneity, heteroskedasticity, data dependencies, publication bias and truncated samples. The empirical results are consistent with publication bias, omitted variable bias in some studies, and lack of a genuine effect, especially for mass media. The paper also discusses ‘dissemination bias’ in the use of research results by primary investigators and health policy interest groups.     

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM THREE DECADES OF RESEARCH ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PUBLIC CAPITAL?

The last three decades have witnessed a great deal of research effort devoted to measuring the private output elasticity of public capital. The wide range of available estimates have precluded any consensus so far, however. This paper reconciles the empirical findings of the literature by quantitatively analyzing a sample of 578 estimates collected from 68 studies for the 1983–2008 period. Using meta‐regression analysis, we show how study design characteristics and publication bias can explain a large fraction of the variation across estimates. We find a short‐run output elasticity of public capital supplied at the central government level of 0.083, which increases to 0.122 in the long run. If, in addition, only core infrastructure at a regional/local level of government is considered, these estimates are almost doubled. The average output elasticity of public capital amounts to 0.106. Our results suggest that public capital is undersupplied in OECD economies.     

Multiscale features of extreme risk spillover networks among global stock markets

This paper studies the multiscale features of extreme risk spillover among global stock markets over various time–frequency horizons. We propose multiscale risk spillover indexes based on GARCH-EVT-VaR, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform method, and forecast-error-variance decompositions. We further construct multiscale risk spillover networks to visualize risk spillovers at different scales. Our findings show that the US and the UK are detected as the centers of risk spillovers, while Asian stock markets are mainly at the edge of the risk spillover network. The topological properties are unevenly spread over each time scale. The network tends to be closer not only at the short-term scale but also during the financial crisis. For individual features, the US and the UK are super-spreaders of risk spillover at each time scale, while most developing markets mainly act as absorbers. The role of European stock markets is complex at different scales.     

FDI、环境规制与技术进步——基于中国省级数据的实证分析

本文利用中国30个省区市2000～2009年的数据考查FDI技术溢出效应、环境规制强度对工业技术进步的影响,同时估算了环境规制强度对FDI溢出效应的工业技术进步边际效应的影响,结果发现FDI溢出效应阻碍了各地区工业技术的进步,加强环境规制有利于各地区工业技术进步,而且环境规制对促进FDI溢出的边际效应存在显著影响。另外通过对各地区工业进行国有企业、私营企业以及"三资"企业分组后,发现环境规制强度对促进技术进步、FDI溢出存在异质性影响。     

技术差距的门槛与FDI技术溢出的非线性——理论模型及中国企业的实证研究

本文通过引入内外资技术差距的"双刃性"改进质量阶梯型内生增长模型,从理论上证明了存在内外资技术差距的门槛值,使得外商直接投资技术溢出受技术差距的影响而呈现非线性动态演进规律;进一步结合我国14474家微观企业面板数据,证明了存在两个技术差距的门槛值,使得外商直接投资企业对于落在不同技术差距范围内的内资企业具有不同的技术溢出效应。     

The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Academics, politicians, the public in general and researchers have great interest in the non-observed economy. However, there is divergence in its definition, accounting methodology and economic effects. In this paper we conduct a meta-analysis on the empirical literature that estimates the impact of the parallel economy on economic growth. We conclude that there is no publication bias and that the average effect of the parallel economy on economic growth is insignificant. However, the reported effects differ considerably with the type and number of countries included in the sample of primary studies, the structure of the data, the methodology used to measure the parallel economy, the number of citations of primary studies, and the year they were published.     

FDI技术溢出机理及影响因素探析

文章探讨了FDI技术溢出机理,分别就水平溢出效应和垂直溢出效应的传导机制进行了分析,并指出了影响FDI技术溢出效应的因素,包括东道国吸收能力与技术差距、市场竞争与跨国公司投资动机。还从产业引进与培育、制度建设及人才战略等方面提出了建议,以更好发挥FDI技术溢出效应,促进我国技术进步。     

CORRUPTION'S DIRECT EFFECTS ON PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

Corruption is a symptom of weak institutional quality and could have potentially adverse effects on economic growth. However, heterogeneity in reported findings makes it difficult to synthesize the evidence base with a view to test competing hypotheses and/or support evidence‐based policy and practice. To address this issue, we have extracted 327 estimates of corruption's direct effect on per‐capita GDP growth from 29 primary studies, following a peer‐reviewed and pre‐published systematic review protocol. Precision‐effect and funnel asymmetry tests indicate that corruption has a negative effect on per‐capita GDP growth after controlling for publication selection bias and within‐study dependence. However, multivariate meta‐regression analysis results indicate that the overall effect is not robust to inclusion of moderating variables through a general‐to‐specific procedure for model specification. We report that the marginal effect of corruption on per‐capita GDP growth is more adverse when the primary study estimates relate to long‐run growth, are based on low‐income‐country data only, and extracted from journal papers. The effect is less adverse in studies that use the International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index and in those reporting estimates from two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

FDI AND TAXATION: A META‐STUDY

Abstract In this paper we extend former meta‐analyses on FDI and taxation in three ways. First, we add 16 recent publications. Second, we code additional meta‐regressor variables addressing important issues in research on FDI and taxation. Third, we refer to the sophisticated meta‐analytical methodology and present a coherent strategy to choose the meta‐regression estimator most suitable for the meta‐data at hand. As compared to prior surveys, the meta‐analysis is thus based on a much broader methodological basis and a considerably richer meta‐data set. The median tax semi‐elasticity of FDI based on 704 primary estimates is 2.49 in absolute terms. The precision weighted average of the full sample of semi‐elasticities is 2.55, again in absolute terms. Moreover, our meta‐analysis shows that there is a publication bias in the primary literature. Meta‐regressions show that studies based on aggregate data report systematically larger semi‐elasticities than firm‐level analyses, that integrating bilateral tax regulations into effective tax rates leads to more effective measurement of adverse tax incentives on foreign investment, and that tax effects are not compensated by public spending.     

OWNERSHIP CONCENTRATION AND FIRM PERFORMANCE IN EMERGING MARKETS: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature concerned with relations between ownership concentration and corporate performance in emerging markets presents conflicting theoretical predications and inconclusive empirical results. We use meta‐analytical techniques to integrate the diverse empirical findings and investigate factors contribute to the inconsistencies in the empirical evidence. Using 419 correlations collected from 42 primary studies of listed corporations in 18 emerging markets, heterogeneity tests show that only a small proportion of the variation in reported ownership concentration–performance relations can be attributed to sampling error. Our meta‐regressions reveal how population differences, researchers’ modeling choices, and inadequate treatment of endogeneity explain a large portion of the true heterogeneity. After adjusting for these effects, we find ownership concentration has negative relation with firm performance across countries. Our results emphasize the importance of model specification and methods of addressing endogeneity, and support further comparative study of the ownership concentration–corporate performance relation between countries with seemingly similar corporate governance environments.     

SUCCESSFUL IN THE LONG RUN: A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENT FIRM PROFITS

We study the profit persistence literature by applying meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to a set of 36 empirical papers, which analyze the persistence of abnormal firm profits over time. The analyzed literature provides evidence for a mediocre degree of persistence in abnormal profits. An initial analysis of the distribution of reported profit persistence estimates reveals some degree of excess variation. This points toward publication bias that favors significant results independent of their algebraic sign. The MRA, however, reveals that publication bias is particularly favoring results that indicate profit persistence and thus contradict the neoclassical model of perfect competition. Moreover, the MRA enables to control for heterogeneity driven by the study design. We find that the analyzed country (developing vs. developed), the applied econometric approach, as well as the analyzed period of time are significant drivers of heterogeneity in reported persistence estimates.     

DOES EDUCATION REALLY IMPROVE HEALTH? A META‐ANALYSIS

While numerous studies assess the relationship between education and health, no consensus has been reached on whether education really improves health. We perform a meta‐analysis of 4866 estimates gleaned from 99 published studies that examine the health effects of education. We find that the current literature suffers from moderate publication bias towards the positive effects of education on health. After correcting for publication bias with an array of sophisticated methods, we find that the overall effect size is practically zero, indicating that education generates no discernible benefits to health. The heterogeneity analysis by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Frequentist Model Averaging (FMA) reveals that the reported estimates can be largely explained by whether the econometric models control for endogeneity of education, the types of data and the differences in health measurements. Our results also suggest that education may not be an effective policy option for promoting population health.