从农产品补贴政策看我国农业的发展

虽然农业补贴违背了WTO的平等竞争原则,但在国际农产品市场上,农业补贴却始终存在。发达国家对农业的补贴不仅技术娴熟,方式多样,且补贴计划周密,应变性强,对发展中国家的农业发展造成了巨大的影响。我国加入WTO后,农业政策不断与国际接轨,但我国对农业补贴方面政策的运用程度还不够,为适应这种变化,我国应转变补贴形式,变间接补贴为直接补贴,加大生态农业补贴、农业基础设施建设补贴和农产品市场建设补贴,并规范农业补贴制度,借鉴发达国家农业补贴政策的经验,完善相关配套措施,同时加强与发展中国家合作,积极进行反补贴谈判,更好地促进我国农业的发展。     

我国粮食直接补贴政策的理论分析

文章回顾了我国粮食补贴政策实施的历程,对现行粮食直接补贴政策进行了分析.直接补贴政策虽然在一定程度上纠正了以往补贴政策的某些不足,但是本身也存在缺陷,不完全符合政府的初衷和不利于农业的长期生产.结合我国的实际情况,建议直接补贴和间接补贴综合实行,并加大间接补贴力度.     

Preferences,Welfare and Desirable Subsidies under Monopolistic Competition

A simple model of monopolistic competition with consumer preferences for diversity reconciles an empirical‐theoretical disconnect of the welfare properties of industrial subsidies. The optimal policy rules indicate that subsidies can be Pareto improving, but subject to society's preference for diversity. More counter‐intuitively, the welfare‐maximizing subsidy is always found to be strictly non‐negative, and the general qualitative nature of the results seem to contradict the optimum taxation literature. The subsidy incidence is also examined and we find that there exists a potential for an over‐shifting of the subsidy.     

化肥价格变化对粮食价格的影响研究--基于省际动态面板数据模型的系统GMM检验

基于我国粮食价格与化肥价格变动趋势的分析,运用2006年~2017年省际动态面板数据模型和系统GMM方法,实证检验了化肥价格变动对粮食价格的影响。结果表明:化肥价格变动对粮食价格存在显著的正向影响,在考虑化肥价格影响下,农业生产服务、种子等农资价格对粮食价格也存在显著的正向影响,机械化农具和农药价格对粮食价格不显著,"价补分离"政策对粮食价格存在显著负向影响。因此,在化肥减量行动背景下,适度调控化肥价格,避免化肥价格上升挤占粮农利润,大力发展农业生产性服务业和种子业,继续实行"价补分离"政策,提高补贴精准性,减少农民投入成本。     

西方主要国家的农业补贴政策及借鉴

财政对农业给与有效补贴，是当今世界许多国家，尤其是发达国家和地区普遍采取的。旨在保护和发展农业的一项重要政策。本在分别考察发达国家、发展中国家财政对农业的补贴政策的基础上，总结了世界各国政府财政农业补贴政策对我国借鉴意义。     

逆向淘汰、财政补贴与农业的低效率发展——基于湘北农村的调查研究

农村社会劳动力转移的逆向淘汰趋势将使我国的农业逐渐失去自生能力,而不具备自生能力的农业经济组织是不能依靠财政补贴提高经济效率的。如果在劳动力逆向淘汰使农业生产失去活力的条件下,政府提高对农业的财政补贴,势必导致我国的农业发展陷入低效率均衡的陷阱。     

我国农产品对外贸易政策变迁及成长环境研究

文章回溯了入世前后我国农产品对外贸易的政策变迁.从"中心-外围"视角阐释了我国农产品对外贸易的外部环境:发达国家沿用各种支持农业的高额补贴政策;发达国家采用各种保护农业的贸易壁垒措施.从"逆向选择"视角阐释了我国农产品对外贸易的内部条件:农产品低价恶性竞争现象日益凸显;农产品质量安全保障体系存在缺陷.解读了规避不公平贸易政府行为的国际组织及它们的作用,具体包括:世贸组织及其公平竞争原则;国际公平贸易标识组织及其主要任务、公平贸易标识及其对农产品的适用性、公平贸易标识的潜在收益及其获取条件.     

战略性贸易产业R&D补贴的实施策略研究——事前补贴与事后补贴之比较

我国在世贸组织规制下对战略性贸易产业实施保护面临选用什么样的政策保护工具及如何实施的问题?R&D补贴因其具有非专项性和非贸易扭曲性而成为符合世贸组织规制的贸易保护工具。本文利用博弈模型和数据模拟法对R&D补贴的两种实施策略进行了比较,发现事后R&D补贴策略能够产生更大的福利效果,更加有利于节约资源和避免寻租,是优于事前R&D补贴的实施策略,具有更强的现实可行性,值得我国政府采纳。     

The Tunisia Wheat Market in the Context of World Price Volatility: A Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Food security is a key objective of agricultural and food policy in Tunisia. The 2007–2008 food crisis highlighted the negative impacts of price volatility on international markets both in terms of food insecurity and budget exposure. Tunisian food subsidy expenditures ranged from $180 million to $710 million in 2006–2010, so volatile world prices meant volatile subsidy costs. Moreover, cereal production in Tunisia still has much instability due to climate conditions, which also influences imports and, consequently, subsidy expenditures. This study applies a structural model to conduct stochastic analyses of trade and policy impacts on food security and budget expenditures in the Tunisian wheat market. The methodology disaggregates durum wheat and soft wheat markets and generates projections of import prices of durum wheat and soft wheat, using projections of world prices provided by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU). The key innovation is the generated stochastic analyses of subsidy costs based on stochastic world price projections and stochastic domestic wheat yields based on historic yield variances. The analysis highlights the sensitivity of subsidy costs to world prices, volumes imported and domestic production, so that alternative policy tools can be considered.     

Subsidy‐induced Dumping

More than two‐thirds of all anti‐subsidy investigations in the EU are paired with an anti‐dumping investigation against the same non‐EU producers. The outcome may be a two‐component duty where one duty addresses the ‘unfairness’ of the subsidy and the other the dumping behaviour. The philosophy behind this practice is that, at least to some extent, the observed dumping has been induced by the subsidy, and as the GATT Treaty, Article VI commits the claimant not to impose double remedies for the same ‘misbehaviour’, it is necessary to make an assessment of the hypothetical dumping without the subsidy. The EU quantification of the hypothetical dumping margin assumes that an export subsidy translates fully to the dumping margin, while a domestic subsidy leaves the dumping margin unchanged. Using an oligopoly model, we show in this paper that in case of an export subsidy, the EU anti‐dumping duty is lower than the predicted hypothetical dumping margin from the oligopoly model. For a domestic subsidy, the results are ambiguous, and the difference between the size of the duty following the EU procedure and the model predictions is relatively small.     

Trade patterns,unemployment and growth

This paper analyses the implications of a minimum wage in an open economy two-sector model where the effect of growth on trade and unemployment is explicitly determined. The first-best policy is a wage subsidy to all employment while the second-best policy is a production tax cum subsidy. In the absence of policy intervention it is shown that growth in the short run results in decreasing unemployment for the home country if it is specialized in consumption goods or incompletely specialized provided that the minimum wage is binding. If the economy is specialized in investment goods, then unemployment may increase initially but as growth continues the minimum wage no longer remains binding and full employment is restored. In the long run by examining the dynamic interaction between trade and growth it is possible for the economy to be incompletely specialized with unemployment. If the economy specializes in consumption goods, it is possible for the economy to attain full employment.     

美日欧WTO补贴规则改革方案及其对中国的挑战

2017年以来,美日欧三方先后六次就WTO改革发表联合声明,补贴规则改革对中国的指向性极其明显,试图以重塑WTO规则的方式对中国施压。美日欧主张的WTO补贴规则改革方案呈现出补贴主体定义外延化、禁止性补贴范围扩大化、通报规则严格化等特点。改革方案针对国有企业的所有制歧视、中央与地方通报协调难题、部分产业产能过剩、研发补贴的效率与合规冲突等对中国构成严峻挑战。面对WTO补贴制度迫切改革的难题,中国应优化补贴制度并积极参与和引领多边补贴制度改革进程。在国内补贴制度改革方面,应坚持"合理性"优先于"合规性"的基本原则,严格履行成员补贴透明度与通报义务,加快研发和农业补贴方式创新。在谈判策略方面,坚持工业补贴和农业补贴一揽子的谈判策略,恢复不可诉补贴,严格界定国有企业的正常商业行为。     

De Tocqueville's ‘Dangerous Moment’: The Importance of Getting Reforms Right

Economic reform, on an ongoing basis, is vital if economies are to achieve, and maintain, rapid and sustained economic growth. Yet governments face challenges when introducing economic reforms. Policymakers must judge what reforms are needed; when to introduce them; and how rapidly to pursue their reform programme. Failed reforms can discredit the reform process as a whole, and so make it more difficult, and more costly, to retry in the future. The reform process in emerging market economies provides many lessons that are widely applicable. Perseverance is critical: reforms must be followed through if they are to be successful. Reforms also need to be wide‐ranging, encompassing not just monetary, fiscal and trade policy but reform of the financial sector and of public institutions. Reforms in many countries need to include the protection of property and individual rights; improved tax administration and greater efficiency of public spending; and commercial codes. Reforms can be most easily implemented at times of global expansion. Fiscal consolidation, for example, is more easily accomplished in a more favourable environment partly because it helps deliver future growth and partly because it gives governments scope for counter‐cyclical policy during future downturns.     

NOTE ON THE WELFARE EFFECT OF SECOND‐BEST POLICIES IN A NETWORK INDUSTRY: A MONOPOLY CASE

We show that the welfare effect of second‐best policies such as a subsidy/tax and quality regulation in the case of a monopoly in a network industry depends on the strength of network effects. That is, focusing on the case in which the network effect is smaller (larger) than the marginal cost of production for the small (large) network effect, it is demonstrated that in the case of a small (large) network effect, an output and a quality‐improving subsidy (tax) policy are socially optimal, and a government should commit to a minimum (maximum) quality standard.     

不完全竞争市场上的贸易和产业政策——以合成橡胶行业为例的经验分析

战略性贸易政策理论研究不完全竞争市场的贸易政策和产业政策。本文将该理论作为分析框架，以合成橡胶行业为分析对象，使用2003年的数据对我国在该行业实施贸易政策和产业政策进行经验分析。文章分析比较了4种不同的政策或政策组合，即自由贸易政策、进口关税政策、生产补贴政策、进口关税与生产补贴结合使用。研究发现，相对于自由放任政策，各种干预政策可增加国民福利，但幅度不大；而干预政策对不同行业厂商利润和政府收入的影响则要大得多，并使合成橡胶的数量和价格发生明显变化。最后，笔者考察了进口关税政策在多期的实施效果。研究结果支持传统幼稚工业保护论：贸易保护程度应随时间减弱，并且政策将在多期中不断降低厂商的市场力量。     

Bailouts,Monitoring, and Penalties: An Integrated Framework of Government Policies to Manage the Too‐Big‐to‐Fail Problem

This paper discusses optimal government bailout policy where the costs of systemic failures and moral hazard problems are considered. We find that a three‐tiered bailout policy that includes an ex post monitoring and bailout scheme for financial institutions with large systemic impacts (‘too big to fail’) is optimal. The optimal policy also requires a randomized bailout for medium‐impact institutions (‘Constructive Ambiguity’), and no bailout for institutions that have only minimal systemic consequences (‘too small to save’). However, in a volatile, innovative market environment where individual institutions may know more than the government regulator, monitoring error could contribute to risk taking, leaving the government regulator to always play a ‘catch‐up’ role in revising policy. Moreover, the optimal bailout policy may not be time‐consistent: institutions not deemed ‘too big to fail’ may still have an incentive to take excessive risks and expect to be bailed out in case of insolvency, primarily due to the short‐term orientation of the government. Finally, because an institution's systemic cost affects the probability of a bailout, we show that the boundary of an institution may be extended by the government subsidy.     

An Evaluation of Japan's First Safeguards Actions

Japan has been one of the major GATT/WTO member countries with relatively little experience in implementing protectionist measures. However, in April 2001, for the first time in its history, Japan invoked provisional safeguard measures against imports of Welsh onions, Shiitake mushrooms and Tatami mats mainly from China. This paper reviews and evaluates the chain of events regarding these safeguard actions, and considers the means by which Japan might be able to deal with its ‘trilemma’ policy problem involving how to coordinate the promotion of trade liberalisation, the administration of WTO‐consistent safeguards and responses to domestic political demands for protection. The paper first attempts to review the theoretical rationale for implementing safeguard measures and counterarguments against these measures. Second, it discusses the economic circumstances in which Japan implemented the safeguard measures and evaluates these measures critically from the standpoint of economic efficiency and the political economy interests involved. Finally, it concludes with a recommendation that the aforementioned ‘trilemma’ policy problem in Japan can be best addressed by means of the introduction of a ‘well‐institutionalised’ domestic programme to provide adjustment assistance to ameliorate the displacement resulting from import surges.     

能源价格波动对粮食生产成本的动态影响研究

能源价格波动会对中国粮食生产成本造成冲击,而且不同类型能源价格波动的动态冲击效果存在差异。运用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数研究发现,煤炭价格对粮食生产成本的影响十分显著,石油价格对粮食生产成本具有潜在影响。农户会调整生产要素投入以应对能源价格对粮食生产成本的冲击,但由此也给粮食生产带来负面影响。因此,应推广科学的粮食生产方式,减少对能源的依赖,并完善能源价格挂钩型农资的调控政策以及优化农资补贴方式。     

Galloping,creeping, or receding internationalization

Using a simple two-period linear durability choice trade model, we examine strategic trade policy in terms of taxes or subsidies levied on duopolistic firms in sales markets. In contrast to earlier parametric durability studies we show that the optimal export policy is not necessarily a tax when product durability is endogenously determined. Our analysis indicates that with endogenous adjustment of durability either a tax, subsidy, or laissez-faire policy (zero subsidy) may be optimal. In addition, we find that any trade policy (tax or subsidy) has the unforeseen effect of changing the firms' product durability. For example, future expected subsidies tend to decrease the domestic firm's product durability while increasing the foreign firm's chosen durability.     

承诺补贴--对高新技术出口产业的一种市场进入扶持政策

发展中国家的出口产品结构现状表明其在一些高新技术出口产业上处于劣势：而从长期的动态的角度上看,鼓励这些产业的发展又是发展中国家优化本国出口产品结构的必由之路,通过模型分析我们发现,在一定条件下,发展中国家政府对本国企业承诺补贴使其净利润非负的市场进入扶持政策能达到预期的效果而补贴却无需兑现。当然此扶持政策有其自身固有的弊端．应慎重合作,同时应将最终眼光投向根本上提高本国高新技术出口产业的竞争力上。