Foreign banking in developing countries; origin matters

Driven by globalization and increased financial integration, the last decade has seen many foreign banks entering developing countries. Although the majority of these banks are from high-income countries, recently banks from developing countries have followed suit. This paper looks at this phenomenon, by examining the differences and similarities between developing and high-income country foreign banks. Using a large dataset on banking sector FDI in developing countries, we find that 27% of all foreign banks in developing countries are owned by a bank from another developing country, while these banks hold 5%of the foreign assets. The importance of developing country foreign banks is much larger in low-income countries (both in number of banks and in terms of assets) and this type of foreign banking is strongly regionally concentrated. Although foreign bank entry by both developing country as well as high-income country banks seems to be driven by economic integration, common language and proximity, banks from developing countries are more likely to invest in small developing countries with weak institutions where high-income country banks are reluctant to go. This result seems to suggest that developing country banks have a competitive advantage dealing with countries with a weak institutional climate. Furthermore, our results indicate that developing country foreign banks have a higher interest margin and are less profitable than foreign banks from high-income countries.     

The effectiveness of forex interventions in four Latin American countries

Many central banks actively intervene in the forex market, although there is no consensus on its impact on the exchange rate level and volatility. We analyze the effects of daily forex interventions in four Latin American economies with inflation targets – namely, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru – by fitting GARCH-type models. These countries represent a broad span of intervention strategies in terms of size and frequency, ranging from pure discretional to rule-based interventions. We find that only first interventions, either isolated or the initial one in a rule-based series, are able to reduce exchange rate volatility, whereas their size plays a minor role.     

New-structuralist exchange-rate policy and the pattern of specialization in Latin American countries

The present article critically examines the transmission channels from real exchange rate undervaluation to output growth adduced by New-Structuralism (NS). To this end, we slightly modify new-structuralist canonical model for small open peripheral economies, and make the underlying productive structure depend on income distribution. This allows us both to discuss: (a) the limits of the transmission channels adduced by NS in their own terms, that is, under the assumption that the tradable sector is the modern sector; and (b) the further limitations of these channels when the pattern of trade is more suitable to characterize Latin American countries, whose tradable sector mainly exports primary goods under conditions of differential rent. We conclude that the channels work under highly restrictive assumptions, and therefore the alleged positive relationship between real exchange rate and growth cannot be generally ascertained.     

Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis

This paper aims to identify the main determinants of sovereign bond spreads in seven Latin American countries and verify the existence of contagion effect over these markets during the last financial crisis. We apply a panel data framework and find that the inflation, terms of trade ratio and the external debt and international reserves (both as percentage of GDP) are key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Moreover, we test the crisis impact over emerging economies. Our results show that the crisis has a statistically significant impact on the EMBIG spreads since 2008.     

Internationalization of multinational banks: a study of foreign direct investment in seven Latin American countries

The article attempts to explore and contrast the different factors that influence the foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational banks. Employing eclectic theory, an estimation model with panel data from seven Latin American countries is set to test the proposed hypotheses. The results highlight an increase in foreign assets, removal of banking restriction, banking concentration, and capital cost differential in the local banking system as determinants of specific location advantages for attracting banking FDI. Other factors such as cultural proximity and crisis also have a significant impact on banking FDI. Discussions and implications are debated before conclusions are drawn for a future research agenda.     

Better marketing to developing countries: Why and how

Managers have long understood the rationale for investing in new products. Now, however, they face an even more compelling need: to invest in targeting new markets, specifically those in less developed countries (LDCs). The argument presented in this article, for initiating or increasing marketing efforts in these nations, makes two related points. First, a healthy world economy requires consumers in developing nations—particularly China—to spend more, because trade imbalances between the United States and LDCs cannot be sustained. Second, in order to foster consumption in LDCs and to profit from it, marketing expertise in the developed world must refocus. Success will require devising, promoting, and distributing products that will overcome economic constraints in some markets, and in others will overcome an understandable reluctance to spend rather than save. We suggest that lessons may be gleaned from examples regarding recent efforts targeting LDCs by a pharmaceutical company (Pfizer) and a food supplement marketer (Procter & Gamble), as well as efforts pioneered in less developed countries themselves (including low-cost private schools and $2,500 automobiles).     

Transfer of management knowhow to developing countries: An empirical investigation

This article examines the transfer of management knowhow to developing countries through managers who undertake a graduate program in business at an advanced country. Based upon a study of 67 Turkish managers, all of whom received a master's degree in business in the United States, the article addresses three issues: What are the differences in the local applicability of various management skills (including marketing) which were acquired in an advanced country? What company and individual manager characteristics are associated with the local application of these management skills? What principal factors impede the transfer of management knowhow to an indigeneous organization?     

Monetary policy in developing countries: lessons from Kenya

We estimate and then simulate a model of Kenyan economic development from 1965 to 1997 with two objectives in mind. The first is to demonstrate the degree of volatility of cyclical shocks that developing countries experience and to calculate the domestic nominal adjustments required by these shocks under both irrevocably fixed and free exchange rates.A comparison of these counterfactual nominal adjustments identifies the short-run implications for an economy of the choice of exchange rate regime. The second objective is to provide an estimate of the consequences for the economic development of Kenya of the lack of a coherent monetary order (excessive domestic credit expansion and overvalued exchange rate) throughout most of the period since 1965.A neoclassical convergence growth model based on Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) is employed and calibrated to represent the long-run growth path of real GDP in Kenya. A short-run four-sector CGE model is constructed that allows for cyclical movements of real GDP about the convergence growth path. The cyclical model focuses on the adjustment of the relative price of non-traded goods that is required to ensure short-run equilibrium in the non-traded goods sector. Given that terms of trade shocks dominated the macro environment of Kenya over the sample period, we find that a free exchange rate regime would have insulated the economy to a greater degree than an irrevocably fixed regime. In the growth decomposition exercise, we estimate that the two largest (and negative) influences on Kenyan economic growth were the decline in the external terms of trade from 100 in 1965 to an average of 79.5 over the 32-year time period, and the overvalued Kenyan shilling represented by a premium on the parallel market for foreign exchange. Overall, we estimate that the overvalued exchange rate reduced economic growth by an average of 0.47 per cent per annum over the 32 years.     

Problems of integration theory in relation to the developing countries

The opportunities for the integration of developing countries and the limitations to such integration have not received enough attention in the scientific discussion on the reform of the international economic order, with the result that a considerable research backlog has been accumulating in this field. The following article shows that the established integration theory which has been evolved primarily with the problems of the European integration movement in mind is not able to evolve adequate criteria for decisions on integrations of developing countries.     

Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid growth in Asia's emerging economies has boosted export earnings of resource‐rich economies over the past decade. Whether or not those high growth rates continue, how will structural changes in Asia alter the relative importance of their imports of primary products? This paper projects production and trade patterns of Africa and Latin America to 2030 under various growth and policy scenarios in Asia, using the GTAP model of the global economy. We compare a projection assuming relatively conservative economic growth in China and India with a projection in which those economies continue to grow rapidly (albeit slower than in the previous decade). We then compare our conservative growth baseline with two alternative scenarios: one assuming Africa and Latin America choose to invest more in public agricultural R&D to take advantage of Asian import growth; the other assuming China and India dampen that import growth by restricting their imports of key food grains (following the historical pattern of economies such as Japan and Korea). The final section summarises the results and draws out policy implications for Latin America and Africa.     

Exchange rate volatility in Latin American and the Caribbean region: Evidence from 1985 to 2005

Using a total of 28 Latin American and Caribbean countries, this study finds a negative relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility. The econometric tool for this specific analysis is the widely used gravity model, in a panel data context. A similar condition is detected between inbound foreign direct investment and exchange rate volatility. The results of the study support the hypothesis that significant exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the economies of the region and that achieving exchange rate stability should be a goal of policy makers in the context of Latin America and the Caribbean.     

Trade and inequality in developing countries: a general equilibrium analysis

Developing and newly industrialized countries that have experienced the sharpest increases in wage inequality are those whose export shares have shifted towards more skill-intensive goods. We argue that this can be explained by technological catch-up. We develop this insight using a model that features both Ricardian and endowments-based comparative advantage. In this model, Southern catch-up causes production of the least skill-intensive Northern goods to migrate South (where they become the most skill-intensive Southern goods). This raises wage inequality in both the South and the North. We provide empirical evidence that strongly supports this causal mechanism: Southern catch-up exacerbates Southern inequality by redirecting Southern export shares towards more skill-intensive goods.     

Markets versus institutions in developing countries: National attributes as determinants

While there is some discussion of national preferences for banking versus financial markets, there is little research on how national financing preferences are determined by legal, cultural, and other national characteristics. Using panel analysis on data for a recent eight-year period for sixteen emerging-economies, this paper documents that, in such countries, an increased predilection for equity markets is associated with increased prevention of corruption and countries being Asian. A decreased predilection for financing via equity markets is associated both with greater power of bank regulators and with more globalization and an English legal origin. One interpretation of our results suggests that while common law promotes both banking and financial markets, common law and societal openness act to promote banking more than markets in less developed environments. Our results have important public policy implications given that financial systems are still evolving in developing countries.     

Standards and export performance in developing countries: Evidence from Pakistan

Several studies have analyzed the exporting pattern and performance of firms located in a developing country. However, there is limited work on the impact of standards on the performance of developing country exporting firms. This paper uses data from Pakistan to assess the effects of ISO 9000 certification on export sales and share of exports (relative to domestic and export sales) for textiles and the agro-food sector. As certification is not randomly assigned but there is ‘self-selection into treatment’, we use propensity matching methods to estimate the causal effect of certification on the change in the firms' value of export sales between 2000 and 2004. The results show that export performance is positively correlated with ISO 9000 certification.     

The developing countries in the new gatt round: Safeguards revisited

The article reviews the case for a new safeguard code in GATT. Article XIX is at present widely circumvented, especially vis-a-vis developing countries. A new safeguard code would preferably not allow for selectivity, emphasize domestic adjustment, and in general not provide for compensation and/ or retaliation. Special treatment for developing countries might be incorporated by prescribing compensation in case safeguards were to be used against their exports.