International transmission of stock price movements: Evidence from the U.S. and five Asian-Pacific markets

Using a vector autoregressive analysis, this paper examines the structure of international transmissions in daily returns for six national stock markets— the U.S., Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Our results generally indicate that (1) the degree of interdependence among national stock markets has increased substantially after the 1987 stock market crash, (2) the U.S. market plays a dominant role of influencing the Pacific-Basin markets, (3) Japan and Singapore together have a significant persistent impact on the other Asian markets, and (4) the markets in Taiwan and Thailand are not efficient in processing international news.     

Further evidence on causality and feedback across international stocks

This study extends the previous research on interdependence of international stock markets by using Geweke's (1982) causality test on seventeen stock market indices. The impact of the stock market crash of October 1987 on other national stock markets is investigated by disaggregating the data into pre- and post-crash periods. Direction of causality and feedback is studied using standard causality tests. The results indicate very few stock markets (namely, the U.K. and the U.S.A.) influence other markets significantly. Almost all markets react to other markets' past and present movements. Traditional major markets (Japan, France, and Canada) do not seem to be influential at all.     

国内外网络游戏产业研究文献综述

进入21世纪以来,网络游戏产业飞速发展起来,成为IT业界最具发展潜力的行业和学者们研究的热点。文中对国内外众多网络游戏产业相关研究文献进行了归类总结,介绍了国内外网络游戏的起源和发展历史,分析了美、日、韩、中四国网络游戏产业的发展现状和前景,明确了研究的重点和主要结论,并指出了研究的不足和急待解决的问题。     

NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: an empirical note

This paper provides tests of the co-movement of the North American stock markets. We find over the post-US stock market crash period, 1987:11 through 1997:03, there is no cointegration present in these markets even when the passage of NAFTA is taken into account. The absence of cointegration allows us to draw several conclusions. First, the stock markets of North America are segmented. Second, the passage of NAFTA has not resulted in a greater integration of these stock markets. Finally, the data do not support the notion of a contagion effect from the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. In conclusion, the potential for long-run international diversification across the markets of North America still exists.     

The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock,FX and VIX markets

The U.S. presidential election is one of the global political events that have the profound effects on the Global Financial Markets (GFMs). The aim of the study is to examine Stock, FX and VIX markets under the U.S. presidential election 2016. The findings strongly suggest that ‘U.S. presidential election effects’ hold in equity and FX markets across the GFMs. The empirical outcome signifies that markets are inefficient in the short-run (election year) and allows the opportunity to make abnormal gains from the market. The ‘Republican president elect’ has shown negative effects on the Nifty50, S&PASX200, and IPC equity markets while FTSE100, DJIA, Top40, EuroStoxx50 and Nikkei225 have reported positive returns. The Trumps’ proposal on international trade has caused major loss in the global currency market against the U.S. dollar. The investors’ sentiment to be measured extremely low on the poll announcement day but VXJ and AXVI based market participants have shown very high degree of concern. The Bearish-run election effects to be observed during the election period while post election period has shown Bull-run effects (Asia-pacific markets).     

苏州工业园区服务外包产业发展SWOT分析

苏州工业园区的经济社会对外开放度高,劳动力素质优势明显,具有承接国际服务业转移的良好基础。但在欧债危机及全球资本回流欧美市场的大背景下,苏州工业园区服务外包产业重视"内需型"的企业服务外包市场是理性选择。     

U.S. Futures Exchanges Face"Mission Impossible"

For U.S. futures exchanges, controlling costs while maintaining market performance is an ongoing, difficult challenge. New market realities have made that challenge even more daunting in recent years as costs have escalated, competition has expanded, and the role of information technology has expanded. It is always difficult for regulatory statutes to keep pace with ever-changing markets. Futures markets are no exception. The basic statutory framework represented by the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) was enacted in 1922, over seventy years ago. In order to maintain appropriate regulatory balance, periodic review and reform has been essential over the years. Our current federal regulatory systems were built for different markets with different competitive realities than we face today. Reforming the CEA to take into account those new market realities is vital to the survival of U.S. futures exchanges.     

Volatility spillovers among the U.S. and Asian stock markets: A comparison between the periods of Asian currency crisis and subprime credit crisis

This paper examines the changing nature of volatility spillovers among the U.S. and eight East Asian stock markets between two financial crises: the Asian currency crisis and the U.S. subprime credit crisis. Our empirical results suggest that volatility is not always spilled over from the directly affected markets to surrounding markets in crisis periods. The East Asian markets who directly suffered from the Asian currency crisis are the ones to which volatility is spilled over from other markets during the Asian currency crisis period, whereas uni-directional volatility spillovers from the U.S. market to other markets are observed during both crisis periods. This difference can be explained by a pre-determined hierarchy in which volatility spillovers tend to start from the U.S. market regardless of the geographical origin of the crisis. Furthermore, our results reveal that the markets in three major Asian financial hubs, i.e., Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, are the markets to which volatility is spilled over uni-directionally from several other countries during the subprime credit crisis period, but not during the Asian currency crisis period. We attribute this difference to crisis-specific (currency or credit crisis), market-specific (credit derivatives market participation and foreign currency reserves), and time-specific (more integrated global market) factors.     

Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading,financial uncertainties,and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis

This paper investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading (CET), financial uncertainties, and Chinese stocks in different industries over the period from 19th December 2013 to 21st March 2022. We utilized a novel quantile framework including rolling window quantile regression method, quantile-on-quantile method, and causality-in-quantiles method to implement this research more comprehensively and accurately. Our contributions and findings, empirical in nature, are as follows: (i) In the early establishing stage of the carbon market, with a bullish market situation, carbon emission trading has a negative impact on most industry stocks. In the developing and improving stage of the carbon market, different industries have different impact situations. (ii) We find that the effects of financial uncertainty on stocks are stronger than CET on stocks. We also find that the dependence structures between CET, financial uncertainty, and industry stocks are asymmetric in most industries, and there are many mutation structures with significant risks in extreme situations. (iii) Carbon emissions trading, crude oil volatility, and US stock volatility all have strong causal relationships with Chinese industry stocks. (iv) We also provide policy suggestions to relevant countries to balance carbon market and stock markets and avoid risks from financial uncertainty in different industries.     

Navigating the New Normal: Political Affinity and Multinationals’ Post-Acquisition Performance

The New Normal in the international business landscape reflects a world challenged by economic volatility and political hostilities. This suggests increased political risk, even for MNEs operating in developed markets. We use the legitimacy-based view of political risk to examine how political affinity between host and home markets may contribute to an MNE’s post-acquisition performance in a developed market. A high degree of political affinity signifies aligned national interests thus reducing legitimacy concerns faced by MNEs during post-acquisition integration. Based on cross-border M&A deals focused on U.S. targets completed by MNEs representing 45 countries between 2004 and 2012, we find that MNEs from countries with greater political affinity to the U.S. experience better post-acquisition performance. We also investigate two country-level factors that intensify the threat to legitimacy; the MNEs’ home market economic status and the presence of a financial crisis in the host market. Our findings indicate that political affinity mitigates risk for MNEs originated from emerging economies much more than for MNEs originated from developed economies, whereas a financial crisis reduces the benefit of political affinity.     

Dynamics in a Mature Industry: Entry,Exit, and Growth of Big‐Box Grocery Retailers

This paper measures market dynamics within the U.S. grocery industry (defined as supermarket, supercenter, and club retailers). We find that despite being a mature industry, the grocery industry is remarkably dynamic. Each year retailers open or close roughly 7% of U.S. stores. We also find significant changes in the size of firms’ operations within markets over time. These changes in relative size are largely the result of expansion or contraction by incumbents rather than the result of firm entry or exit. In fact, entry and exit are quite rare, except by small firms. Moreover, only in small markets do new entrants gain substantial market share.     

Using CARRX models to study factors affecting the volatilities of Asian equity markets

The range of daily asset prices is often used as a measure of volatility. Using a CARRX (conditional autoregressive range with exogenous variables) model, and the parsimony principle, the paper investigates the factors affecting the volatilities of Asian equity markets. Since the beginning of the new Century, emerging Asian markets such as Taiwan and Shanghai have been undergoing various stages of financial globalization. The volatility of the equity market may not be explained solely by its own dynamics. In this paper, we examine volatility using the following factors: (i) lagged returns; (ii) lagged absolute returns; (iii) own trading volume; (iv) U.S. factors; (v) European factors; and (vi) regional (Asian) factors. Points (i) and (iii) are by and large significant, while (ii) is not. Controlling for (i), (ii) and (iii), we find evidence that the volatility of European markets has spillovers on to both the Taiwan and Tokyo markets, mild evidence that the volatility of the U.S. market has spillovers on to the Hong Kong market, but there are no spillovers from the European or U.S. markets on to the Shanghai market.     

基于项目的组织与复杂产品系统——企业能力理论视角的分析

国际学术界关于"复杂产品系统"和"基于项目的组织"的研究,对我国大型企业进行产业升级和实施"走出去"战略具有重要意义.我国企业在大规模生产的消费品领域具有很强的竞争力,在国际市场上占据了很大份额,但国际高端资本品(即复杂产品系统)在市场上的竞争力则与西方先进国家存在巨大差距.本文从企业能力理论视角分析复杂产品系统和基于项目的企业的特征,说明基于项目的组织的经济性主要来自重复经济,而要实现重复经济,就要建立起能够利用重复经济的组织架构,进行相应的能力建设.     

产融结合的区域经济联动分析

从东西方政治经济学解析金融体系与产业经济的影响，具体是区域地理大发现和现代产业经济革命的渊源，以及世界上最早的宋朝纸币货币发展历史追溯，揭示现代金融学的产业渊源。并且通过1997年亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机对我国经济的影响，阐述世界金融和货币体系对实体经济的影响，尤其是产业龙头、产业七寸和产业配套的产业链条的市场销售额的时间序列分析、销售额分析、带动力分析。从市场和价格两个角度剖析扩大内需和协调外贸市场对经济的改善作用，通过发展交通、扩大物流实现区域经济联动，使区域经济和产融结合。     

International Leadership in Productivity at the Aggregate and Industry Level

Since many policies affect specific parts of economies differently, it is useful to decompose GDP per capita differences across countries into differences across smaller and smaller parts of economies. In this paper, we summarize recent contributions in this area and fit them together into a decomposition procedure for GDP per capita differences. The overall finding is that the U.S. is the productivity leader for the most of the economy. Moreover, international productivity differences at the aggregate level of the economies are in most cases translated into differences in the productivity of industries, at least compared to the productivity leader U.S. The variability of productivity differences at the industry level is, however, substantially higher than any differences at the aggregate or sector level. For the manufacturing sector alone the U.S. and Japan share the leadership on the industry level. In contrast, France, U.K., and Germany exhibit almost no leadership in productivity at the industry level. Hence, nation-specific factors appear to be dominant in the comparison of European countries with the U.S. Finally, mix differences do not play a very large role for big countries. For Germany, however, the mix effect can help to reconcile relative high productivity for the market economy and lower productivity at disaggregated levels.     

Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras

The stock market crash of October 1987 earmarked fears of a deep-seated financial crisis. In recent years, while there has been a number of empirical studies devoted to examinations of the number of common trends in a system of stock price indexes, only a minority has focused on what effect the crash has had on the characteristics [namely, the amount of co-movements amongst markets, their dynamic linkages, and implications for the transmission or propagation mechanism] of major stock markets. In this paper, we demonstrate how the techniques of unit root testing, cointegration, vector error-correction modelling (VECM) and forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) analysis, may be used to shed some light on these concerns in the context of six major international stock markets. Using two non-overlapping samples, we find evidence of a single cointegrating vector (or five common trends) over each of the pre- and post crash samples. A VECM is then constructed in which the temporal causal dynamics are examined, followed by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period, into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own. Results tend to broadly indicate: (1) the crash does not appear to have affected the relative leading role played by the US market over other markets; (2) the German and, British markets seem to have become more dependent on other markets over the post-crash era relative to the pre-crash; and (3) provide confirming evidence that, in general, the crash has brought about a greater interaction amongst markets, with a greater role for fluctuations in explaining shocks across markets (including that for the U.S.).     

中国煤炭产业集中度测算与判断

运用行业集中率CR8和赫尔芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)对我国煤炭产业集中度进行了测算。2010年,我国煤炭产业CR8为24.79%,按照贝恩分类法,属于竞争型市场结构。同年,赫尔芬达尔-赫希曼指数为1 400,根据美国司法部的分类,也属于竞争度最高的竞争II型市场结构。上述两项国际通用的指标测算显示,我国煤炭产业集中度较低。这种状况不利于煤炭产业的可持续发展,所以,应当着力促进我国煤炭产业集中度的提升。     

The role of the world’s major steel markets in price spillover networks: an analysis based on complex network motifs

In recent years, the international steel market has shown increasingly strong cross-regional correlation. To better understand the price trends of various markets, it is necessary to identify their inherent price spillovers. This paper combines a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) model and complex network motifs to explore the price fluctuations among international steel markets. The study selects steel markets in 12 countries and regions and uses daily data on import and export prices from January 2009 to September 2017 to analyze eight steel products. The results show that spillovers are associated with geographical location, market development, product type and status. Spillovers mostly occur between buyer’s markets; additionally, the Asian market, especially the East Asian market, is in most cases the recipient of spillover, whereas the European Union (EU) market is in most cases the sender of spillover effects. Developed markets have clear spillover effects on emerging markets, sheet steel products have clear spillover effects on profile steel products, and the prices of midstream and downstream products in the industrial chain are the most influenced. This paper examines international steel market relationships from the perspective of price transmission, and the results can help manage and prevent large-scale economic risks.

     

Cointegration and capital market integration: An application of the error-correction mechanism to investigate the relationship between domestic and offshore U.S. dollar yields

In this study the author applies the theory of cointegration to an examination of the structure of international interest rates. U.S. dollar yields in domestic and offshore markets are studied for the period 1986–1987, inclusive. Primary findings reveal that the two yield series are cointegrated, the domestic market responds more rapidly than the offshore market to eliminate deviations from equilibrium, and the adjustment in domestic yields is accomplished by changes in both domestic yields and offshore yields; deviations from equilibrium in the offshore market are corrected solely by changes in domestic market yields.     

Entry threat,entry delay,and Internet speed: The timing of the U.S. broadband rollout

In a rapidly growing industry, potential entrants strategically choose which local markets to enter. Facing the threat of additional entrants, a potential entrant may lower its expectation of future profits and delay entry into a local market, or it may accelerate entry due to preemptive motives. Using the evolution of local market structures of broadband Internet service providers from 1999 to 2007, we find that the former effect dominates the latter after allowing for spatial correlation across markets and accounting for endogenous market structure. On average, it takes 2 years longer for threatened markets to receive their first broadband entrant. Moreover, this entry delay has long‐run negative implications for the divergence of the U.S. broadband infrastructure: 1 year of entry delay translates into an 11% decrease on average present‐day download speeds.