The Economics of Fiscal Rules and Debt Sustainability

Intereconomics - Because they exert cross-border spillover effects, fiscal policies of individual EU member states are a common concern for the entire EU.     

财政信息公开与财政透明度:理念、规则与国际经验

财政透明度是现代公共管理的必然要求,也是保障政府履行财政受托责任的必由之路。财政信息公开是财政透明度的本质规定和重要内容,是保障社会公众知情权的必然要求。本文旨在通过财政透明度的视角,就财政信息公开的有关问题进行论述。首先在明确界定财政信息公开的基础上,指出财政信息公开要有一定的度,应遵循一定的及时性与频率;然后梳理国际组织有关财政数据信息公开的基本标准,考察美国和澳大利亚等成熟市场经济国家财政数据信息公开的有益经验。在此基础上,立足我国国情,提出进一步推进财政信息公开、提高财政透明度的相关政策建议。     

内外经济平衡中存在的矛盾

近年我国贸易顺差不断扩大,同时国内经济又出现投资过热,商务部将"调投资、促消费、减顺差"定为2007年我国经济工作的三大着力点,以平衡内外经济.但是"减顺差"与"调投资"和"促消费"都有一定的矛盾.从平衡贸易角度看,在三者中"促消费"是核心,但也是最难的.政府对公共基础设施的投资如果能够适当扩大,还是有利于减少贸易顺差的.     

EU Fiscal Rules: A Look Back and the Way Forward

Intereconomics - The decline of “natural real interest rates” during the last three decades is a common phenomenon in all advanced economies and can be explained by a number of...     

Fiscal Rules and the Scope for Risk Sharing

The trade-off between risk reduction and risk sharing has been at the heart of debates concerning EU economic governance over the last five years, but there are few signs as yet of a solution being reached.     

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy

This paper examines the implications of different monetary and fiscal policy rules in an economy characterized by Harrodian instability. We show that (1) a monetary rule along Taylor lines can be stabilizing for low debt ratios but becomes de‐stabilizing if the debt ratio exceeds a certain threshold, (2) a ‘Keynesian’ fiscal policy rule can stabilize the economy at full employment, (3) a fiscal ‘austerity’ rule that links fiscal parameters to deviations from a target debt ratio fails to adjust the ‘warranted’ to the ‘natural’ growth rate and destabilizes the warranted path and (4) instability may arise from a combination of fiscal and monetary policy rules which separately would stabilize the system.     

Accumulation,Structural Change and External Balances in a World with Internationally Traded Environmental Assets

Environmental literature has largely neglected macroeconomic considerations, especially open economy and asset market ones. This paper develops a small country framework that seeks to address these issues. Medium‐ and long‐run aspects are explored using standard trade and portfolio balance models, modified to incorporate trade in claims on non‐renewable resources (environmental assets). In the medium run, changes in environmental regulations, saving behavior and other variables affect the current account, investment and composition of output. In the long run, both the sectoral intensity of environment use and the structure of the economy are affected, as are the capital stock and the global distribution of claims on resources.     

地方财政行为与中国贸易收支:约束还是激励

本文通过构建双边随机前沿模型,在考虑财政约束和财政激励的情况下,实证测度了地方财政行为对贸易收支的驱动性影响。研究结果表明:财政激励效应要明显强于财政约束效应,因此地方财政行为会导致实际贸易收支的整体偏高,这也是中国贸易收支长期处于顺差状态的重要症结;平均而言,财政激励行为将使贸易收支高出基准水平76.69%,而财政约束行为则能使实际贸易收支降低69.54%。当前财政约束机制的调控效果正逐步显现,将推动中国贸易收支向再平衡状态趋近;财政激励行为和财政约束行为对贸易收支的影响具有显著的区域异质性。东部地区的财政激励效应最强,净指数也最高,而中部地区的净指数最低,其贸易收支趋于基准水平。同时,各地区不同分位点上贸易收支的变动幅度也不尽相同。     

财政分权与经济增长：第二代财政分权理论

20世纪90年代中期以来，第二代财政分权理论有了极大发展。本文回顾了这一新理论区别于传统理论的特征，以及将其用于经济增长研究得出的新发现和主要问题。在此类研究中，中国改革开放以来的经济绩效，一方面为回答“财政分权是否有助于促进经济增长”提供了重要的经验研究依据，另一方面也在一定程度上证实了制度设计对财政分权效果具有决定性影响的判断，这与国内一些研究得出的结论有相似之处。这些研究成果对我国未来的中央一地方财政关系的发展具有重要的启示意义。     

Fiscal policy and the recession: The case of Greece

This paper presents an analysis of the implications of Greece’s intense and long-lasting fiscal and external imbalances for the potential efficacy of a discretionary fiscal policy response to the current recession. It argues that, given recent developments in interest rate spreads and the credit markets’ increased sensitivity to risk, the interest rates applicable to the entire amount of Greece’s external debt would tend to be higher with a fiscal expansion than without one. Moreover, it deduces from a simple model that the leakages associated with increased interest payments to foreign creditors could well cancel out any positive multiplier effects generated by a fiscal expansion, resulting in a failure to stimulate growth. The implications of this finding for policy is that Greece should continue to avoid the adoption of a fiscal stimulus package, not only out of respect to its fiscal obligations as an EU member but, ultimately, because such a package would be ineffective as an economic recovery tool. While the analysis focuses on the Greek economy, it may be of relevance to other EU economies suffering from serious macroeconomic imbalances.     

财政分权与绩效管理的相互关系研究

财政分权和绩效管理是目前世界上公共经济领域两个热门的改革话题。本文在梳理已有研究成果的基础上,从规范分析和实证分析两方面研究了财政分权与绩效管理之间相互促进、协调发展的关系,并提出应明确各级政府职能,深化我国财政分权,推进绩效管理的建设。     

经济行为中的纽带:成本—收益关联

经济行为具有两面性,既包含了个体从中所获得的收益,又包含了为此付出的成本。成本—收益关联理论的研究表明:在人们的经济行为中,时间接近性、复杂性、局部的和因果的框架、构成的显著性和动机都会产生关联影响。也会产生情绪的、认知的和行为的结果,它对商家、消费者、员工、政策制定者的影响更不可忽视。成本和收益的关联性值得被更仔细的研究,它可以帮助人们更好的理解真实世界的现象。     

The Brand Awareness-to-Preference Link in Business Markets:

One of the key issues in business-to-business communication-the relationship between brand awareness and brand preference-is investigated by estimating both an S-shaped and a linear model with a database of information on the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Research results confirm the existence of threshold and saturation effects in the brand awareness-preference association. The average threshold level is approximately 10%-implying that a brand must surpass this awareness level before beginning to generate meaningful additions to its share of brand preference. In the semiconductor manufacturing industry the sensitivity of brand preference share to increases in brand awareness level displays increasing returns to scale for most brands across various product categories. This sensitivity tends to be higher when purchasing process is short, price is an important buying-decision criterion, annual purchase volume is large, product technology is stable, and number of competing brands is small.     

Product Placement: The UK and the New Rules

This article considers product placement as an advertising vehicle. The topic has been the subject of debate, consultation and policy making in the United Kingdom for several years, both as a matter of principle and as a requirement of EU Directive implementation. Product placement had been banned since 1954. It is now legal but limited. The article begins with a brief, historical and transatlantic view of this promotional activity. Despite resolute government statements about preserving the ban, the same administration later reversed its view. It is suggested that the change is not to obtain commercial advantage, but to avoid commercial disadvantage. It is submitted that despite the uproar these changes caused, they will only marginally affect audiences and revenues and that they amount to a reversal rather than a revolution.     

关于我国财政支出与个人消费关系的实证研究

当前我国经济处于重要的发展时期,政府正通过积极的财政政策来刺激内需保证我国经济保持稳定增长。因而,财政政策的有效性成为当前的一个热点。本文通过运用误差修正模型对我国经济数据进行了分析,发现财政政策的短期效果是明显的,但存在滞后的挤出效应,表明财政政策存在结构调整优化的必要以及需要在消费环境上做出进一步的改进,以优化消费者预期,从而促进内需有效增加。     

US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict

Fiscal policy shocks exert wide‐reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and divided government leads not only to significant Congressional gridlock, but also to spells of high fiscal policy uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between fiscal policy and asset prices in the US economy conditional on the degree of partisan conflict. We analyze whether a higher degree of partisan conflict (legislative gridlock) reduces the efficacy of the effect and response of fiscal policy on and to asset price movements, respectively. We find that partisan conflict does not significantly affect the relationships between the fiscal surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) and housing and equity returns. Rather, if important, partisan conflict affects the actual implementation of fiscal policy actions.     

财政转移支付的横向财力均等化效应分析

财政转移支付的横向财力均等化效应会影响到各地区财政能力均等化水平,进而影响到地方公共服务均等化实现程度。研究表明,从总体效应看,转移支付起到一定的横向财力均等化效果,但各地区财力差异仍然很大;从分项转移支付效果来看,一般性转移支付的财力均等化效应最强,专项转移支付次之,税收返还效果最差。应通过调节转移支付的地区分配结构与建立均等化转移支付体系来提升转移支付的横向财力均等化水平,以促进各地区公共服务均等化。     

The Defense Industry: Tradeoffs Between Fiscal Constraints and National Security Challenges

The global defense sector is faced with uncertainty and volatility in government demand, which is driven by fiscal constraints, as well as shifting defense priorities in various nations. This paper discusses the challenges facing the U.S. government and defense contractors, and provides perspectives on potential strategies for these groups which are designed to mitigate risks and to sustain the defense sector. It emphasizes the importance of the continued growth of the defense sector through greater stability in funding, which would, in turn, assist in sustaining defense demand in response to national security challenges. The paper discusses the trends and composition in U.S. defense spending, the strategies used by the armed services to handle national security concerns and fiscal constraints, the impact on the defense industry of closure or development of key programs, and the strategies used by defense firms to handle the volatility in demand. Collaboration between nations may be a key strategy for sustaining global stability, since combining equipment and forces in various regions helps to alleviate fiscal constraints in various countries.     

Normative Stakeholder Theory and Aristotle: The Link Between Ethics and Politics

Stakeholder theory is an important part of modern business ethics. Many scholars argue for a normative instead of an instrumental approach to stakeholder theory. Recent examples of such an approach show that problems appear with respect to the ethical foundation as well as the specification of the norms and the relation between corporate and individual responsibilities. This paper argues for the relevance of Aristotle's ideas on ethics and politics, and especially the link between them, for stakeholder theory. An Aristotelian approach suggests that the corporation should be considered as existing to allow the decision maker, who normally is a manager, to live a complete and good life and to make decisions that involve the interests of different stakeholders. This approach leads to a number of implications regarding the role of organizational politics and the managerial function.     

西方财政理论变迁的政治学分析

政治学是研究以国家为中心的各种政治现象及其发展规律的科学,财政学则是研究政府的经济行为及其效应的经济学分支.二者在研究内容上存在许多交叉领域,如国家的本质及职能、公共选择、国家制度等.实践中,各国的财政体制皆与其政治体制、国家结构密切相关,不同的政治制度、国家结构必然产生不同的财政制度安排.理论上,政治学的进步有利于财政理论的创新,历史上几乎每一次财政理论创新都与一定的政治思想和国家学说密切相关.