关于OTC市场股权估值的思考

健康的股权估值体系会促进OTC市场的长期发展,为中小微型与创新企业提供全国性、富有透明度的融资渠道。北美OTC上柜公司估值以主板上市公司估值方法为基础,同时估值调整项非常重要。对于我国中小微企业,需要根据上柜公司盈利特点选择合适的估值方法。估值时需要注重企业盈利趋势,多种估值方法互为补充,避免过于复杂的过程及过多的主观假设。估值水平的折价和溢价是风险收益权衡的结果。     

A THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM*

Abstract In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price‐to‐earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long‐term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short‐term volatility might not be neglected.     

REAL OPTIONS AND THE CROSS‐SECTION OF EXPECTED STOCK RETURNS

This paper surveys the theoretical literature investigating the effect of firms’ investment flexibility on the cross‐section of expected stock returns. Real options analysis derives firms’ value‐maximizing investment policies as functions of exogenous fundamental drivers of profitability and calculates firms’ market values as functions of the same variables. These functions yield the relationship between expected stock returns and firm fundamentals. Several plausible explanations for the value premium – the high average stock returns earned by firms with high book‐to‐market ratios – emerge from this literature.     

上市公司资产评估与交易定价关系研究——基于2010年上市公司数据分析

本文以2010年沪深两市上市公司资产评估与交易定价为研究对象,对沪深两市整体资产评估与交易定价情况进行描述性统计,并结合行业、交易类型、板块等因素分析评估价值和交易价格之间的关系,研究表明,上市公司资产评估价值已经成为交易定价的重要参考依据,行业、交易类型、板块因素对评估价值和交易价格之间的关系存在一定影响。     

跨国并购知识产权价值评估相关问题研究

明确跨国并购知识产权评估中的价值类型、影响因素和评估方法对于并购交易、国有资产管理等无疑是有着非常重要的意义,本文从价值类型、影响因素和评估方法三个方面对跨国并购知识产权的评估问题进行研究.跨国并购中知识产权的价值类型可分为三种:市场价值、投资价值、清算价值或重整价值.跨国并购知识产权评估中应考虑知识产权的价值影响因素,如法律因素、收益因素、风险因素、市场因素、宏观因素和技术因素等.在跨国并购知识产权评估中,应区分股权并购和资产并购采用不同的评估方法,且因为知识产权的不确定性,应加强模糊评价和因素分析法等方法在知识产权评估中的应用.     

Firm size,economic risks,and the cross-section of international stock returns

Recent empirical evidence from developed markets indicates a negative relation between value premium and firm size. We find that the value premium in small stocks is consistently priced in the cross-section of international returns, whereas the value premium in big stocks is not. Based on US data, we show that the small-stock value premium is associated with business cycle news and reflects changes in macroeconomic, especially credit market related risks. Our results hold true for regional and global equity markets and remain valid after controlling for firm characteristics and prominent profitability and investment factors.     

基于会计信息的企业内在价值评估方法——Faltham-Ohlson估价模型的拓展分析

传统的企业内在价值评估模型忽略了大量有价值的会计信息,如何将丰富的会计信息恰当地运用于企业估价便成为证券市场中会计研究的焦点,Faltham-Ohlson估价模型的提出解决了这一难题。本文将源于杜邦体系的比率分解思想引入到该模型进行拓展分析,揭示出财务报表中存在的会计数据与企业价值的确定之间的关系,旨在为建立一个基于更多会计信息的企业内在价值评估模型进行尝试性的探讨。     

非有效市场股权风险溢价的确定——基于投入产出分析

从实体经济领域着手,运用投入产出分析构建了非有效市场股权风险溢价计算模型,并运用所构建模型计算了我国整体经济、主要行业以及目标企业的股权风险溢价,进而确定了目标企业股权价值评估时应采用的折现率。     

中国A股市场“小公司效应”的实证分析

本文以1995年1月至2003年12月期间在上海、深圳证券交易所交易的的全部A股股票为样本,分别以流通市值与总市值来衡量公司规模,对中国A股市场的“小公司效应”进行实证分析,研究表明:①作为规模度量的流通市值与总市值的选择对公司规模的排序没有显著影响。②最小规模公司股票组合获得显著的超额收益,且拥有最高的经风险调整后的收益(Sharpe比率),中国A股市场存在“小公司效应”。     

The Association Between Accounting Determined Risk Measures and Analysts' Risk Perceptions in a Medium-Sized Stock Market

This paper investigates the association between financial analysts' risk perceptions and accounting and market determined risk measures in Hong Kong. Analyses from a survey of risk perceptions among analysts reveal that:
(1) Accounting determined risk measures, together with a contextual variable, explain 0.77 of the variation in perceptions. The statistic is comparable to those reported for the US and UK stock markets.
(2) Analysts perceive higher risk in companies expected to exhibit a decline in earnings.
(3) Correlation between perceptions and p-e ratios is -0.74.
(4) Correlation between market beta and p-e ratios/perceptions is not significant.
The results suggest that earnings expectations play a substantial role in the formation of risk perceptions and that risk perceptions may be a superior surrogate for ex ante market risk than beta. Implications for stock valuation in medium-sized markets are discussed.     

Valuation ratios and long‐horizon stock price predictability

Using annual data for 1872–1997, this paper re‐examines the predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend and price–earnings ratios. In line with the extant literature, we find significant evidence of increased long‐horizon predictability; that is, the hypothesis that the current value of a valuation ratio is uncorrelated with future stock price changes cannot be rejected at short horizons but can be rejected at longer horizons based on bootstrapped critical values constructed from linear representations of the data. While increased statistical power at long horizons in finite samples provides a possible explanation for the pattern of predictability in the data, we find via Monte Carlo simulations that the power to detect predictability in finite samples does not increase at long horizons in a linear framework. An alternative explanation for the pattern of predictability in the data is nonlinearities in the underlying data‐generating process. We consider exponential smooth‐transition autoregressive models of the price–dividend and price–earnings ratios and their ability to explain the pattern of stock price predictability in the data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What drives the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market?

This paper examines the dynamics of the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market by adopting a multivariate decomposition approach to measure the individual contributions of various driving forces of the premium (such as firm size, idiosyncratic volatility, and market liquidity betas). By employing a wide range of liquidity measures, we show that liquidity premium is generally significant in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, this premium is increasing in recent years starting from 2011; this observation is different from the United States market, in which the premium has declined over the years. Moreover, the multivariate decomposition approach highlights several asset pricing factors as the main driving forces of the premium. Based on the Amihud liquidity measure, the decomposition approach indicates that the size factor contributes 45–65% to the liquidity premium. However, the measure based on turnover suggests that idiosyncratic volatility accounts for at least 60% of the liquidity premium. In contrast, the global market liquidity beta does not significantly contribute to the premium. However, there is some evidence that the local market liquidity beta has become more significant in its impact on the premium during the period from 2011 to 2015. Our results imply that the findings on the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market could be sensitive to the liquidity measure used and period of analysis.     

An empirical analysis of mean reversion of the S&P 500’s P/E ratios

Numerous authors have suggested that the price-earnings (P/E) ratio can be used to predict the future movement of stock prices. Such arguments are based on the belief that P/E ratios are mean-reverting. However, are the S&P P/E ratios really mean reverting? A review of the literature finds arguments on both sides, but the issue of mean reversion has not been tested adequately. Using unit roots and multiple structural breaks, we explicitly show that the P/E ratio is stationary around multiple breaks, which means that it will eventually revert to some long-run means. This result supports evidence that high P/E ratios relative to the current long-run mean will be followed by slow growth in stock prices and/or high earnings growth.     

我国沪、深股市的波动性研究——基于GARCH族模型

金融市场的波动性不仅是投资者关注的焦点之一,而且也是被研究的热点之一。中国股市还非常年轻,股票市场的价格常常表现出大幅波动的特征。本研究以上证综合指数和深圳成分指数为研究对象,分别运用GARCH模型、TARCH模型和EGARCH模型同时拟合,并对比分析了中国股市日收益率波动的动态特征;结果显示,EGACH模型能更有效拟合股市的波动性。     

Optimal growth under model uncertainty

The optimal growth of a wealth process toward a goal is studied under ambiguous markets with first- and second-order moment uncertainties relating to stock returns. Optimal strategies and value functions are solved explicitly. A verification theorem is proved to show that the results solve the original stochastic control problem. Quantitative analyses of the investment strategies indicate that a rational individual with ambiguity aversion reduces market participation when return and volatility are uncorrelated, while there is an exception for synchronous return and volatility. The welfare of shorting a discounted reward is computed, which demonstrates that in an ambiguous pricing economy, investors can generate a positive premium via appropriate asset allocations.     

价值投资：中国股票市场实证分析

已有的研究表明,在成熟市场中,价值股的投资收益率普遍高于热门股(亦称成长股)。那么,这一结论在新兴市场是否成立?本文运用组合法,对沪、深股市1996年至2004年期间的股票进行了系统的实证研究。我们发现,中国股市存在微弱的价值溢酬,但常用的价值指标与股票收益率之间的关系存在差异。研究结果表明,中国股票市场具有鲜明的新兴市场特征;但随着时间的推移,价值投资溢酬呈现逐渐提高的趋势。     

Mortgagor Motivations in Prepayments for Adjustable Rate Mortgages

This paper provides the first rigorous analysis of residential adjustable mortgage prepayment using individual ARM mortgage data in Singapore. The prepayment rate for residential mortgages is low and is dominated more by macroeconomic factors than mortgage–specific factors. Specifically, the prepayment rate is increasing in residential property prices, but decreasing in income as proxied by GDP and volatility in mortgage rates. There is weak evidence to suggest that prepayment is increasing in the borrower's age, mortgage rate hikes, cash–availability variables and sentiments of the stock market, and decreasing in the price premium over valuation, payment–to–income ratio, loan–to–value ratio, loan term and floor level of the property.     

Artificial stock markets with different maturity levels: simulation of information asymmetry and herd behavior using agent-based and network models

This paper aims mainly at building artificial stock markets with different maturity levels by modeling information asymmetry and herd behavior. The developed artificial markets are multi-assets, order-driven and populated by agents having heterogeneous behaviors and information. Agents are defined by their information and their herd behavior levels. Agents trade multiple risky assets based on their wealth, their behaviors and their available information which spread among multiple behavioral networks. In a novel contribution to artificial stock markets literature, agents’ behaviors modeling is mixed with social network simulation to reproduce different degrees of information asymmetry and herd behavior based on several assortative topologies. Several simulations validated the proposed model since univariate and multivariate stylized facts were reproduced both for mature and immature stock markets. The proposed artificial stock market can be considered as a first step toward decision and simulation tools for optimal management, strategy analysis and predictions evolution of immature stock markets.     

企业价值转移和资本结构:一项实证分析

本文选取2001年沪深A股677家上市公司的市场和财务数据,首先检验两个指标是否具有显著相关性:市值规模比和长期负债比率。并按价值转移理论,利用市值规模比把677家上市公司划分为三组:价值流入期、价值稳定期和价值流出期。实证研究处于不同价值转移阶段企业资本结构的特点。     

Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turbulent periods

In this paper, we investigate financial spillovers between stock markets during calm and turbulent periods. We explicitly define financial spillovers and financial contagion in accordance with the literature and construct statistical models corresponding to these definitions in a Markov switching framework. Applying the new testing methodology based on transition matrices, we find that spillovers from the US stock market to the UK, Japanese and German markets are more frequent when the latter markets are in a crisis regime. However, we reject the hypothesis of strong financial contagion from the US to the other markets.