共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Gideon Fishelson 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1984,26(3):299-306
The analysis presented is for the adoption of hybrid corn. Among the three functional relationships that are tried the log logistic performs best in terms of explanation (R2) and serial correlation before adjusting for it. After adjusting for the serial correlation using the Cochrane Orcutt procedure the differences between the three functional forms practically vanish. The adoption parameter of the log logistic is best explained by economic variables among which the total area of corn in the state, which stands for both the importance in the economy and economies of scale of extension services, is outstanding. 相似文献
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James P. Gander 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1984,25(4):329-345
This paper models cooperative R & D involving the university, the government, and the firm, using a linear programming format to determine the optimal cooperative structure or, “Who does what?” Both prime and dual are discussed. Sensitivity and simulation techniques are discussed as analytical tools to evaluate the effect of uncertainty and returns to scale on the optimal mix or structure of cooperative R & D. The value of the approach is both heuristic and analytical. Some problems and limitations of the approach are discussed briefly. 相似文献
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Rajendra K. Srivastava Vijay Mahajan Sridhar N. Ramaswami Joseph Cherian 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1985,28(4):325-333
This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed. 相似文献
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Vijay Mahajan Herman W. Lay Chair Professor of Marketing 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1985,28(1):13-27
In order to assess the impact of patent infringement on the growth of a new product, a model is developed through the intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of associated damages suggest that the model can provide a sound basis for analyzing patent infringement disputes. 相似文献
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A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work. EFTE stands for estimate, feedback, talk, estimate—the sequence of steps involved in this variant on the Delphi approach. EFTE offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem. 相似文献
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James P. Gander 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1985,28(2):159-172
Government involvement in the innovation process, both direct and indirect, is introduced into a standard innovation time-cost trade-off model. Different forms of involvement are treated and each form entails cooperation between the firm and the government. The optimal development time (or project completion date) is determined and analyzed parametrically. This analysis produced five hypotheses concerning the effect of government involvement on the timing of innovations. Selected empirical applications (or tests) of the hypotheses are presented and then concluding remarks are made. 相似文献
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Frederick A. Rossini 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1984,26(2):189-194
Herein is described the phoenix rising from the ashes of the dying university. 相似文献
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James A. Xander Medhi Iranmanesh Douglas McNiel Kenneth R. White 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1984,25(4):309-327
Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification. 相似文献
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Previous studies of static and dynamic out-of-sample simulations of the demand for money have indicated a breakdown in the short-run real money balances over the past 1974 forecast period. Using the varying parameter regression technique, the findings of this paper demonstrate that previous results are misleading because the shift of the money demand is obscured by the constant coefficient estimation technique. Our estimation procedure has not only drastically improved both static and dynamic forecasts but has also solved the missing money puzzle. 相似文献
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Ted R. Brannen 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1984,26(2):115-120
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Robert U. Ayres 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1985,28(2):141-157
The large gap between the best available technology and technology in use, especially in the less developed world, is primarily due to social and cultural factors that can only be changed by means of deliberately applied social technologies. Thus, conventional strategies for global population stabilization, economic development, and environmental improvement often put the cart before the horse. 相似文献
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There is considerable evidence that the density of basic innovations is peaked at definite periods with intervals of about 40–60 years. This has been used as support for the behavior of economic cycles as postulated by Kontradieff and amplified by Schumpeter. Recently some economists have used this model to forecast economic recovery in the middle or late 1980s.This paper points out that the shape of the clusters of innovation or inventions are different and sharper than those of economic depression or economic recovery. The transfer of knowledge from basic inventions to industrial innovations shortens as one moves from the 18th to the 20th century, and some probable explanations for this are offered. The importance of discoveries and limited discoveries to the process of invention and innovation is discussed. Also shown is that discoveries reveal cluster phenomena which are functionally related to the clusters of invention and innovation. 相似文献
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Donald N. Michael 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1984,26(2):149-153
The remarks that follow are made with regard to the behavior of leaders whose self-image is threatened by a variety of conditions comprising the world problematique. Of all those conditions, surely those associated with violence and warfare are the most threatening. I would speculate, therefore, that what I've written here is especially pertinent for deliberations on how to encourage peace and disarmament.While these remarks are focused on the behavior of leaders—especially those in government—they can hold, too, for those in the public who identify with those leaders…itself another psychodynamic process. Of course, the public's contexts differ so the degree of threat and response will differ, too. This is a matter for further attention.Moreover, self-images are usually rich in content and while some aspects are threatened, others may not be or, indeed, may be attracted by new rational ideas. The resultant struggle within the psyche complicates the overt expression of these unconscious conflicts.But these dynamics mirror those comprising the problematique, especially its expression around issues of war and peace. Therefore, psychodynamic matters deserve as much attention and utilization as we now give to conventional, indeed, often ritual means, masquerading as rationality, for dealing with violence and armaments. 相似文献