The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

Capital–skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of Social Security Reform

This paper analyses the general equilibrium implications of reforming pay-as-you-go pension systems in an economy with heterogeneous agents, human capital investment and capital–skill complementarity. It shows that increasing funding, by raising savings, delivers in the long run higher physical and human capital and therefore higher output, but also higher across-group wage and income inequality. It also shows that the general equilibrium effects induced by this reform affect groups' sizes in a way that the higher across-group inequality generated by more funding goes with a larger share of the population against redistribution.     

Labour migration in a model of North-South trade

A dynamic general eqilibrium model of the world economy is adopted to examine the benefits and drawbacks of labour migration to each of the participatingregions. It is demonstrated that, especially in the long term, the migration of workers may be mutually beneficial: the region of immigration making production gains, while that of emigration perceives a higher demand for its products. In contrast to previous results, it is shown that no immigration limits would be imposed even if migrants' incomes were taxed and, indeed, differentiated payments to immigrants is suboptimal     

North-south trade: Export-led Growth with Abundant Labour

A North-South model is developed in which the South is represented as a neo-classical dual economy. Conditions are imposed which make temporary equilibrium unique and Walrasian stable and long run balanced growth paths globally asymptotically stable. In the short run an expansion of Northern demand for Southern products always improves the terms of trade. In the long run, however, an increase in the growth rate of Northern demand can turn the terms of trade against the South, reduce real wages and lower living standards.     

Labour mobility and wage inequality in the presence of endogenous foreign investment

This paper examines the impact of labour mobility and increased competition on skilled–unskilled wage inequality and foreign investment. Unlike the existing literature this paper considers a model where foreign investment is endogenously determined. The paper shows that in the shortrun, inflow of either skilled or unskilled labour has no effect on wage inequality but increased competition increases wage inequality. Inflow of either type of labour increases foreign investment but the impact of increased competition on foreign investment cannot be unambiguously determined. Inflow of skilled labour increases wage inequality in the longrun and its effect on foreign investment is positive. Increased competition in the longrun increases wage inequality, foreign investment and welfare.     

Economic integration and similarity in trade structures

In this paper, we look at the similarity of the trade structures toward the EU market between four CEECs and the EU15. We evaluate the appropriateness of different indices to compare export flows—correlation indices and distance metrics—opting for the use of the Bray-Curtis semi-metric. We examine both how the export composition of a country has changed over time and how the export composition has changed with respect to the EU15 export composition. Finally, we test if the dynamics of sectoral distribution of the CEECs’ exports is related to the role acquired by processed trade in the 1990s. We give evidence that processed trade is crucial in explaining changes in the overall structure of exports of transition countries, and that greater economic integration in terms of trade flows and processing trade does not always lead to greater export similarity.

Oman's trade and opportunities of integration with the Asian economies

This paper investigates the determinants of trade between Oman and its major Asian trading partners in order to gauge the impact of the process of trade liberalisation. The empirical findings based on the gravity model indicate that Oman's imports from Asia are strongly determined by Asian population, Asian per capita gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rates, distance and Oman's per capita GDP. The results also provide strong evidence that Oman's oil exports to Asia are strongly and equally determined by Asia's and Oman's population. Our findings reveal that while distance is not a friction to Oman's oil exports, it has a weak regressive effect on non-oil exports. Our results also indicate a negative but statistically insignificant effect of trade liberalisation on non-oil exports. These findings certainly have policy implications in terms of Oman–Asia trade relationship and in particular the need for more policy intervention to liberalise the non-oil exports sector so as to facilitate its wider integration within Asia.     

Labour market implications of EU product market integration

European labour markets are in a state of flux due to the changing market situation induced by international integration. This process affects wage formation through more fierce product market competition and increased mobility of jobs. This development is by some observers taken to enforce labour market flexibility, while for others it signals an erosion of social standards and in turn possibly the welfare society. Since labour is not very mobile in Europe, the effects of international integration on labour markets are mostly indirect via product market integration. We review the channels through which product market integration affects labour markets and perform an empirical analysis of the convergence and interdependencies in wage formation among EU countries. We find that integration is changing labour market structures and inducing wage convergences as well as stronger wage interdependencies, but it is a gradual process. Moreover, the present study does not support the view that international integration will lead to a 'race to the bottom' and rapidly erode domestic labour markets standards, nor that it will relieve politicians of the need to consider labour market reforms to improve labour market performance.     

Evaluating social welfare and redistributive effects of Spanish personal income tax reform

Spain has recently concluded a process of wide-ranging reform of its personal income tax (IRPF), in force since 1992. The new IRPF is applicable from 1999 onward. The aim of this article is to analyse the implications of this tax reform for the distribution of personal income, and additionally to provide a comparative evaluation in terms of social welfare of both taxes. Empirical analysis is performed by a simulation exercise, employing the microdata contained in the Institute of Fiscal Studies’?IRPF Panel of Taxpayers. The analysis shows that the new IRPF induces a redistributive effect slightly lower than the old IRPF. The greater redistributive potential of the progressive structure of the new tax proves to be insufficient to compensate for the contrary effect caused by reduction in the level of tax liability. However, this new tax unambigously permits, in an inequality-adverse society, a higher level of social welfare than that attained by the old tax.     

Unemployment insurance and redistributive taxation

This paper studies the simultaneous determination of the socially optimal levels of unemployment insurance, income taxation and experience rating. It argues that there is a normative justification for state unemployment insurance. When the government wishes to use redistributive taxes, but cannot enforce lump-sum transfers, it is not socially optimal for there to be full experience rating of unemployment insurance schemes: one distortion should be used to off-set another. The state must then intervene in the provision of insurance for those without jobs.     

Labour mobility during transitionEvidence from Georgia1

This article deals with labour mobility in Georgia during economic transition. We use quarterly 1998–99 panel data to examine mobility across six labour market statuses (inactivity, unemployment, formal wage employment, informal wage employment, self‐employment and farming). Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of labour market segmentation. Formal employment is preferred to informal employment. Unemployment is largely a queuing device for individuals with higher education waiting for formal jobs. Some self‐employment is subsistence activities and consistent with a segmented labour market, while other is high risk and potentially high return activities. Age, gender and education are significant determinants of labour mobility. Finally, informal employment serves as a buffer in times of recession – with farming and informal wage employment absorbing labour shed by other statuses during the Russian financial crisis.     

The paradox of weakness in the politics of trade integration

In his 1960 seminal contribution to game theory and its applications, The Strategy of Conflict, Thomas Schelling suggested that in international negotiations, strong international opposition may be an asset rather than a liability. Rather than constraining it, the opposition would enlarge the opportunity set thus making it easier to successfully conclude international negotiations. This property, which is also known as the Schelling-conjecture, shares some aspects with constitutional economics, namely the two-level approach suggesting that it might be beneficial for all parties to give up some power by tying one??s hands. In this paper we examine by means of a simulation study how far we can take this notion in the politics of trade integration. In explicitly marrying Schelling??s 1960 idea with the 1988 two-level approach by Putnam and embedding the result into the political economy of trade we find that the threat of a domestic opposition or national institution having a veto power frequently but not always delivers a more favorable outcome for the respective trade representative at the international table. Whether the Schelling-conjecture applies or not actually depends on the subtle interplay of a ??bully effect?? and a ??serenity effect??.     

A large scale OLG model for the analysis of the redistributive effects of policy reforms

The paper presents a large scale overlapping generation model with heterogeneous agents, where the household is the decision unit. We calibrate the model for three European countries – France, Italy and Sweden – which show marked differences in the design of some public programmes. We examine the properties in terms of annual and life cycle redistribution of a number of tax-benefit programmes, by studying the impact of removing from our model economies some or all of them. We find that whether one considers a life cycle or an annual horizon, and whether behavioural responses are accounted for or not, has a large impact on the results. The model may provide useful insights for policy makers on which kind of reforms are more likely to achieve specific equity objectives.     

The redistributive effects of political reservation for minorities: Evidence from India

We examine the impact of political reservation for disadvantaged minority groups on poverty. To address the concern that political reservation is endogenous, we take advantage of the state-time variation in reservation in state legislative assemblies in India generated by national policies that cause reservations to be revised and the time lags with which revised reservations are implemented. Using data on sixteen major Indian states for the period 1960-2000, we find that increasing the share of seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes significantly reduces poverty while increasing the share of seats reserved for Scheduled Castes has no impact on poverty. Political reservation for Scheduled Tribes has a greater effect on rural poverty than urban poverty, and appears to benefit people near the poverty line as well as those far below it.     

Education,redistributive taxation and confidence

We consider redistributional taxation between people with and without human capital if education is endogenous and if individuals differ in their perceptions about own ability. Those who see their ability as low like redistributive taxation because of the transfers it generates. Those who see their ability as high may also like redistributive taxation because it stops other people receiving education and increases the quasi rents on their own human capital. It is surprising that this rather indirect effect can overcompensate them for the income loss from taxation and make the highly confident want higher taxes than the less confident do. The results, however, turn out to be in line with empirical evidence on the desired amount of redistribution among young individuals.     

Financial integration, capital mobility, and income convergence

Recent studies have found that capital moves 'uphill' from poor to rich countries, and brings little or no growth dividend when it does flow into poor economies. We show that Europe does not conform to this paradigm. In the European experience of financial integration, capital has flown from rich to poor countries, and such inflows have been associated with significant acceleration of income convergence. Analysing broader samples of countries, we find that 'downhill' capital flows tend to be observed above certain thresholds in institutional quality and financial integration. But Europe remains different even when allowing for such threshold effects, and its experience is similar to that of interstate flows within the United States. Our findings are consistent with the notion that financial diversification reduces countries' incentives to save in order to self-insure against specific shocks.
— Abdul Abiad, Daniel Leigh and Ashoka Mody     

Unemployment and the welfare effects of trade policy

Abstract.  In this paper the welfare effects of tariffs and import quotas in the presence of involuntary unemployment are derived and compared. The framework used is the standard model of a competitive small open economy with many goods and factors. Optimum levels of the respective trade policy instruments are derived, as well as welfare increasing reform strategies. In all cases, the labour intensity of the import‐competing sectors turns out to be a crucial variable for deriving the welfare effects. JEL classification: F13, F16     

Public goods provision and redistributive taxation

This paper studies the relationship between redistributive taxation and tax-deductible charitable contributions. Redistribution has two opposite effects on voluntary giving. The price of charitable giving decreases with the degree of redistribution, and this has a positive effect on the total amount of giving (substitution effect). However, redistribution leads to lower consumption for the contributors and therefore has a negative effect on contributions to the charity (income effect). The theoretical model developed in this paper demonstrates that, under a general class of utility functions, the substitution effect dominates the income effect. Hence, charitable giving increases with the tax rate. In purely egalitarian societies, the public good is provided efficiently and the total welfare is maximized independent of the ex-ante income inequality. However, the positive impact of taxation on charitable giving and welfare may disappear if individuals generate their income levels in anticipation of taxation and redistribution does not take into account the cost of effort.     

Pharmaceutical regulation under market integration through parallel trade

In this paper, I study the effect of parallel trade (cross-border resale of goods without the authorization of the manufacturer) on pharmaceutical regulation. Governments may restrict prices directly (price caps) or limit third-party payer reimbursement for the drug (reimbursement limits). I find that parallel trade may relax regulation in the source country of parallel imports under both instruments and intensify regulation in the destination country under a reimbursement limit. I also find that parallel trade may change regulatory preferences: under no parallel trade, both the source and destination country set price caps, and under parallel trade, the source country sets a price cap but the destination country sets a reimbursement limit, thereby enforcing a higher price cap in the South. This implies that drug prices are higher under parallel trade in both source and destination countries.