金融危机的后震荡波

对由二战以后暴发的历次重大金融危机而引起的经济衰退持续时间和深度进行研究发现,由危机引起的资产市场的跌落过程是漫长的,从经济周期峰值到谷底,房地产价格平均下降35%,需要花6年时间才能触底;证券跌到谷底的时间略短,约3年半,但市值将大幅缩水约55%。金融危机还会造成实体经济中产出的下降和失业率上升,失业率平均会上升7%,几乎花4年时间,产出下降幅度将超过9%。对过去金融危机余波的分析可以为预测本次金融危机的影响提供一些借鉴。     

Foreign Aid, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Growth in the Aftermath of Civil Wars

Foreign aid, the real exchange rate (RER), and economic growthare three key variables that shape the aftermath of civil warsin many developing countries. Panel estimations drawn from asample of 39 conflict and 44 nonconflict countries between 1970and 2004 indicate that although postconflict countries receivelarger aid flows and exhibit moderate RER overvaluation afterpeace is attained, overvaluation cannot be traced to aid. Yetforeign aid is among the significant determinants of the equilibriumRER. Aid is also an important determinant of economic growth,particularly after peace is reached. Aid exhibits decreasingreturns, however, and interacts negatively with RER overvaluation.RER overvaluation reduces growth, but this effect is amelioratedby financial development. Postconflict policies should thereforeaim to use aid prudently, avoid RER misalignment, and supportfinancial and capital market development to achieve high andstable growth in the aftermath of war and beyond.     

The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis

This paper presents a new view on the gold price of greenbacks during and after the American Civil War by analyzing exchange-rate volatility rather than exchange-rate levels. Our empirical investigation detects regimes of high and low volatility alternating in a way that is consistent with a theoretical exchange-rate model in which the rate is primarily driven by investors’ expectations and not by fundamentals. We interpret these findings as evidence that monetary policy makers were surprisingly able to credibly announce the resumption to gold half a year before it actually took place on January 1, 1879. Given the intense political debate about the appropriate design of the United States’ financial system, this is a remarkable result. It indicates that the policy makers’ ability to anchor investors’ expectations is relevant to achieving asset-price stability as well as effectiveness of financial market regulation. The insights from this historical episode should therefore be of interest to policy makers and regulators combating financial crises like the ongoing current debt crises worldwide.     

互联网上起硝烟

当一个名不见经传的歌手雪村凭着一曲在互联网中流行的歌<东北人个个都是活雷锋>出现在2002年春节晚会上时,普通的平民百姓开始觉得网络的力量不可抗拒,同时也觉得互联网不是阳春白雪虚拟的社区,而是一个作为个人可以发挥自我、作为企业可以进行创新的崭新平台.其实互联网的触角已经深入到地球的各个角落,给这个世界带来了许多令人耳目一新的变化,金融业也是如此.     

电商“三国杀”警示

从整个宏观形势来看,应该承认,这场电商大战自有其必然性。京东商城与苏宁易购等电商巨头的价格战一经启动,就吸引了消费者和媒体的广泛关注,也招致了大量的议论与猜测,不正当竞争、资本市场游戏种种传言漫天飞舞。可以确认,这场价格战不属于不正当竞争行为。暂且不提这场价格战背后是否存在股市操纵的资本市场游戏,也不提电商大战首日是不是真的只有4.2%降价却有超半数缺     

Fiscal Response to a Temporary Trade Shock: The Aftermath of the Kenyan Coffee Boom

The appropriate fiscal response to a temporary terms of tradewindfall is difficult to determine, even in an unregulated economy.But controls, such as those in force during the 1976–79coffee boom in Kenya, introduce special problems. For example,foreign exchange controls make the private investment of boomincome inefficient by causing it to be undertaken too rapidly.In Kenya the boom induced a massive increase in public expenditure,far in excess of the increase in public revenue. The net effecton capital formation was negative because the fiscal responseexacerbated the rise in the relative price of nontraded capitalgoods, and because resources were preempted for government consumption.     

The Pitfalls of International Integration: A Comment on the Bush Proposal and its Aftermath

In January 2003, the Bush Administration proposed a new system for taxing corporate dividends, under which domestic shareholders in U.S. corporations would not be taxed on dividends they received, provided the corporation distributed these dividends out of after-tax earnings (the Bush Proposal). The Bush Proposal was introduced in Congress on February 27, 2003. Ultimately, however, Congress balked at enacting full-fledged dividend exemption. Instead, in the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) as enacted on May 28, 2003, a lower rate of 15% was adopted for dividends paid by domestic and certain foreign corporations,¹ and the capital gains rate was likewise reduced to 15%. Significantly and in stark contrast to the original Bush proposal, under JGTRRA the lower rate for dividends and capital gains does not depend on any tax being paid at the corporate level.This comment will focus primarily on the international aspects of both the Bush Proposal and JGTRRA. I will not lay out the proposal or the law in any detail. Instead, I will ask whether either the Bush Proposal or JGTRRA make sense from an economic efficiency perspective when the international implications are taken into account. I will leave to others the question of whether either the Bush Proposal or JGTRRA are sensible ways to stimulate the economy (for discussion of the effect of the 2001 tax cuts see Shapiro and Slemrod, 2001, 2002). I will also omit any discussion of the distributive effects of either the Bush Proposal or JGTRRA, which have been extensively discussed elsewhere (e.g., Tax Policy Center, 2003; Burman, Gale and Orszag, 2003).     

The Northern Ireland Civil Service

Although cursory examination reveals that one must refer to 'British civil services', a lacuna has persisted in the literature since Gladden's (1967) seminal work. Invariably, the tendency is to accord the Northern Ireland Civil Service (NICS) footnote status. This article seeks to remedy this deficiency. It offers a resum of the political context of Northern Ireland before concentrating upon NICS itself—its characteristics and changing nature in terms of public administration and the management of public policy since 1970.     

《孙子兵法》与现代商战纵横谈

《孙子兵法》是我国也是世界上最早、最完整、最卓越的军事理论著作,是中华民族数千年灿烂文明长河中,令世界叹为观止的闪烁着真理光芒的文化瑰宝,一直为世人所推崇。《孙子兵法》为世界第一“兵学盛典”,已在世界范围内广泛传播,应用领域极为广泛,更倍受商界青睐。日本企业家将其奉为至宝,美国商人视其为“金科玉律”。军队是在战场上拼杀,企业是在市场上作战,二者有相当的相似性,《孙子兵法》是伟大的商战博弈论,故可为现代商战所用。《孙子兵法》中“上兵伐谋”的战略思想、“五事七计”的决策思想、不战而胜的“全胜”思想、“以利制权”的“权变”思想,则是现代商战的制胜法宝。     

油企成本战——探寻油企过冬期成本方程式

外部需求萎缩与主动价值提升双重力量将加快石油企业成本管理升级。一方面,在全球经济增速放缓初期加快成本管理升级是石油企业主动价值提升的未雨绸缪之举。另一方面,经济放缓使得大宗商品特别是石油需求进入下降通道变得越发明朗,石油企业内部节流将重于外部开源。中化油储"不生产有形产品,没有在产品和中间产品,没有标准化生产线等特征"、"西北油田被称为是一支没有"枪炮"的队伍,所有的施工队伍和服务队伍都来自外部油田"使得它们较一般石油企业成本管理更具挑战性,而它们通过对ABC法(作业成本法)的延伸与创新打磨出一条成本管理的鲜活之路。在宏观经济准备过冬的背景预期下,西北油田的"标准成本三分两全"成本控制法,与中化石油仓储成本管理实践给石油企业传递着暖流涌动的画面,映射着油企成本管理的智慧化演进,具体而言,有四个维度的价值导向。     

金融危机背景下中国经济复苏问题研究

文章重点探讨了中国经济复苏的条件,认为,大萧条的教训之一是政府在某些领域的过度干预,而经济体的充分弹性则是中国经济率先复苏必不可少的条件。     

“货币战争”实为“财富战争”

经济繁荣的时候,美国用别国的钱致自己的富;经济萧条的时候,美国用别国的钱来分散自己的风险。当前全球正在上演着美国进行危机转嫁与风险转嫁的一出大戏。美国发起货币战争的指向剑指中国,而发动货币战争的目的则是行使     

Aftermath of banking crises: Effects on real and monetary variables

This paper models the effects of a banking crisis, and in particular distinguishes between a short-term crisis, such as a banking panic, and a longer-term crisis, such as a banking insolvency. Using an optimizing framework, it shows that depositors shift from deposits into cash in both types of crises, which results in an increase in the interest rates on deposits and loans, and a contraction in output and consumption. However, when the crisis is resolved in a finite time period, there is an intertemporal substitution of consumption, and consumption is postponed until the crisis is resolved. This in turn results in a further decline in the demand for money, availability of credit and output.     

美伊战争给美国经济带来什么?

战争对世界上任何国家的经济发展都是一种沉重的阻碍和制约,但是,这条规律惟独对美国不适用.从历史上考察,战争多次刺激了美国经济的发展.本次战争的情况与以往有所不同,战争的支出也不如以往大,战争对美国经济能有多大刺激作用,还有待观察.     

美伊战争搅乱世界经济谜局

编者按:美伊战争于3月20日上午打响,这场战争犹如一块巨石砸在世界经济的水面上."一石激起千层浪",国际石油、货币、投资、贸易等均为之行情涌动、祸福难定.而随着美伊战争的持续或延长,国际金融市场的动荡与调整将进一步加大,汇率、股价、金价和油价的变化,直接与美元资产信心与心理相连带.下面一组文章,我们特约了国家信息中心等方面的专家从不同角度撰文分析战争的经济影响、判断未来的经济趋势以及值得关注防范的问题.     

注册资产评估师的民事责任

注册资产评估师民事责任的性质可以是违约责任、侵权责任或者违约责任与侵权责任的竞合.注册资产评估师执业致人损害可能是现实的既得利益的减损,也可能是潜在的利益,包括商誉的丧失.资产评估机构造成对他人合法财产的损害应承担全面赔偿.在界定侵权责任时应根据中等偏上的标准制订执业规范作为过错的客观标准,并且限制其在间接因果关系中的责任,主张按致损额与失实评估值孰小的原则进行赔偿.