新增长战略背景下对经济发展趋势和动力的研究——以贵州省为例

本文使用格兰杰因果检验、向量自回归模型等方法筛选出贵州省经济增长的先行因素,并用主成分分析法构建贵州省宏观经济先行指数,以期对未来贵州省经济发展走势和周期做出判断.主要结论有两个：一是本文构建的先行指数解释力较强、预测比较精确;二是工业生产者出厂价格指数、各项存款余额同比增速是贵州省经济增长走势的先行指标,对宏观经济的驱动力较强,但是两者受外部环境和货币政策影响较大,贵州省未来发展面临不确定因素.     

工业企业应收账款作为宏观经济先行指标的可行性研究

稳健的先行指标体系对经济走势的准确分析和预判至关重要,而其中的具体指标需要随着经济结构的调整不断更新完善.本文对工业企业应收账款及其衍生指标作为宏观经济先行指标的可行性进行了考察.研究结论表明,工业企业应收账款相关指标不仅可以在微观上反映企业的生产经营状况,而且可以在宏观经济及其微观基础之间建立有效连接,起到对宏观经济的预判作用,在此基础上构建的合成指数,可以作为先行指数使用,基于该指数的宏观经济走势判断符合实际,具有较高参考价值.     

经济运行先行指标体系构建的国际比较及启示

先行指标体系由于在反映经济景气状况上具有先兆性,成为研究和预测经济周期波动的一种重要方法.从经济运行先行指标体系的构建过程来看,主要包括确定基准循环指标、遴选先行指标体系、编制经济运行先行指数三个环节.本文从这三个环节对国际通行的研究方法进行比较.     

区域金融稳定预警指标体系研究

本文从台州的经济金融特点出发,建立区域金融稳定预警指标体系.首先,本文开创性地将央行纳入指标体系考察范围,为区域金融稳定研究提供了新视角.其次,参考KLR信号分析法,设定指标的临界值和报警区间,并通过层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的权重.再次,计算预警合成指数,建立区域预警模型,计算下一期的预警合成指数预测值,为预测未来区域金融稳定状况提供参考.     

江苏物价先行指标构建研究

本文主要借鉴国内外景气指标选择和建设的经验，结合江苏省物价变化的特点，在充分收集反映江苏省、全国以及国际相关经济指标时间序列的基础上，综合运用主流的时间序列季节调整方法、时差相关分析法以及KL信息量等方法，编制物价先行指数与合成指数，对物价的状况进行评估和预测。     

我国商品市场景气转折点的分析与预测

1999年以来我国商品市场已经经历了三轮景气波动,目前正处于第三次景气波动的上升期.通过VAR模型对商品市场先行合成指数、一致合成指数、先行扩散指数以及一致扩散指数的预测,结合各指标的数据特征分析,可以判断2008年上半年我国商品市场仍保持快速发展,这一轮景气波动的波峰在2008年6月左右到来,并于2009年8月左右完成该轮景气周期.     

行业趋同度、投资者情绪与股市下跌风险

行业趋同度及投资者情绪可以反映市场交易热度.用格兰杰因果网络计算市场的行业趋同度,指数换手率、波动率及BEYR代表投资者情绪,研究这些指标对指数收益及股市下跌风险的影响发现:4个指标对指数收益的预测能力并不稳健,但是对股市下跌风险却有显著的预测能力;用4个指标构造合成因子,发现合成因子对股市下跌风险的预测能力更为显著;利用合成因子进行择时,可以有效避免市场极端的下跌行情,因子择时策略的夏普比率达到0.53,远超指数买入持有策略的0.14.综合来看,行业趋同度及投资者情绪代表的交易热度能够对股市下跌风险提前预警,从而带来投资收益的显著提高.     

陕西省经济景气监测与预警研究

本文结合陕西省经济发展特点及现有月度经济数据,建立经济景气监测指标体系;运用K-L信息量法对经过季节调整处理的指标分类,确定先行、一致、滞后指标组.编制合成指数,并用预警信号分析陕西省2002年至2011年之间经济运行冷热状态.     

2010年1季度CCIEE—中国经济景气指数

一、中国宏观经济走势预测从我们编制的中国宏观经济先行合成指数和一致合成指数来看,先行合成指数平均约领先一致合成指数半年左右。先行指数在2008年10月下降到谷底随后出现明显的V型回升,根据先行指数与一致指数之间的时差关系,中国经     

支付系统运行风险预警研究

为加强对支付系统运行风险的防范,本文在确定支付系统运行风险主要指标及指标权重的基础上,通过基准指标选取、同步指标选取、危机指数合成、先行指标选取、预警指数合成等步骤得到预警指数和危机指数的分布,实现对运行风险的预警;并选取2013年1月到2015年8月作为对运行风险月度数据进行测算的研究区间对该预警方法进行实证分析,取得良好效果。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.