Performance evaluation of balanced pension plans

This paper examines the ability of balanced pension plan managers to successfully time the equity and bond market and select the appropriate assets within these markets. In order to evaluate both market timing abilities in these balanced pension plans, we extend the traditional equity market timing models to also account for bond market timing. As far as we know, we are among the first to apply this multifactor timing model to investigate equity and bond market timing simultaneously. This performance evaluation has been conducted on two samples of Spanish balanced pension plans, one with Euro Zone and one with World investment focus. This allows us to decompose managers’ skills into three components: selectivity, equity market timing, and bond market timing. Our findings suggest that the average stock-picking ability of pension plans is positive. World schemes tend to have positive bond timing skills, while Euro Zone pension plans are on average not able to time equity or bond markets.     

Corporate taxes and defined benefit pension plans

The Tepper–Black arguments for tax-arbitrage opportunities from overfunding pension plans are critically examined and modifications proposed. Tax status, a function of current marginal tax rates and expected future taxable income, is predicted to determine funding policy. Tests of this modified tax benefits view suggest that 1) tax status declines are associated with pension contribution reductions, 2) reductions in contributions are related to previous excess contributions as well as non-pension tax shield increases causing the decline in tax status, and 3) cross-sectionally, tax status is related to fund levels, choice of actuarial variables, and the use of defined benefit plans.     

创新我国企业年金监管制度——基于对全球金融危机的反思

在金融混业经营背景下,如何创新我国企业年金监管的制度安排,以便加强对企业年金委托—代理链条上的风险点的监管,克服市场失灵,防止出现多米诺骨牌效应,降低国家社会保障的系统风险?笔者利用制度经济学等理论分析了我国企业年金监管制度,在反思美国金融混业背景下的企业年金监管制度的基础上,从制度框架和监管机制两个方面提出创新中国企业年金监管制度安排的对策建议。     

Adopting hybrid pension plans: financial and communication issues

This article provides a systematic framework for the evaluation of the movement toward hybrid pension plans by examining the reasons given by firms for converting their existing pension plans to hybrid plans, illustrating the impact of plan changes on expected pension benefits, and identifying winners and losers.     

Cash balance pension plans: A case of standard-setting inadequacy

Accounting for and ownership of U.S. private employee pensions has long been a controversial and politically contested terrain. The uniqueness in the U.S. of using employers as the principal provider of pensions makes the reporting of pensions more problematic since the corporate employers providing pensions are not strictly accountable to only the pensioners. Over the last quarter century there has been a marked swing in power toward management and away from employees making it possible for increasing numbers of U.S. companies to switch from conventional defined benefit plans to cash balance plans. This paper provides a “case” study of how accounting standard-setters framed the pension reporting problem vis-à-vis how they frame the “reporting problem” in general. Utilizing various sources of commentary about the phenomenon of cash-balance conversions, we triangulate on the pension problem to demonstrate how current FASB disclosure rules fail to satisfy the condition of neutrality and how those rules have facilitated the shifting of economic risk from shareholders to employees.     

The effect of the Senior Citizens' Freedom to Work Act of 2000 on employer-provided pension and medical plans

On April 7, 2000 President Clinton signed the Senior Citizens' Freedom to Work Act. The act reduces the Social Security retirement benefit penalties previously imposed on 65- through 69-year-old workers who earned more than nominal incomes after enrolling in the program. This article analyzes the impact that the act will have on retirement decisions of the affected cohorts of older workers and closes with an analysis of how the act may affect employer-provided pension, medical and paid leave plans.     

Valuation, optimal asset allocation and retirement incentives of pension plans

We provide a framework in which we link the valuation and assetallocation policies of defined benefits plans with the lifetimemarginal productivity schedule of the worker and the pensionplan formula. In turn, we examine the retirement policies thatare implied by the primitives of the model and the value ofpension obligations. Our model provides an explicit valuationformula for a stylized defined benefits plan. The optimal assetallocation policies consist of the replicating portfolio independentof the pension liabilities. We show that the worker with retirewhen the ratio of pension benefits to current wages reachesa critical value which depends on the parameters of the pensionplan and the discount rate. Using numerical techniques we analyzethe feedback effect of retirement policies on the valuationof plans and on the asset allocation decisions.     

An analysis of risk-taking behavior for public defined benefit pension plans

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher equity allocation and portfolio beta.     

A global trend: privatization and reform of social security pension plans

Ten years ago Chile successfully privatized its social security system, beginning a worldwide trend to solve the problem of an increasing burden on government-supported social security programs. Contributing factors include an aging population, fewer workers to support retirees, government budget deficits and the influence of politics.     

Pension plan accounting estimates and the freezing of defined benefit pension plans

This study provides evidence that, when “hard” freezing their defined benefit pension plans, employers select downward biased accounting assumptions to exaggerate the economic burden of their benefit plans. Downward biased expected rates of return and discount rates allow managers to increase reported pension expenses and, for discount rates, allow managers to increase reported pension liabilities. We find that prior to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, both rates are downward biased when firms freeze their plans, whereas after SOX the bias is lower. This finding is consistent with managers opportunistically biasing pension estimates to obtain labor concessions during periods of reduced regulatory scrutiny.     

Fiscal institutions and the funding of US state and local pension plans

This paper investigates the relationship between the funded ratio of US public pension plans and several fiscal institutions adopted by state governments. The author analysed a large data set from 1997 to 2012, and found that states with stricter balanced budget requirements and debt limits had a lower pension funded ratio, whereas states with tax and spending limits in place had a higher funded ratio. The findings contribute to the current debate on public sector pension reforms in the US and internationally.     

A new way of looking at the risk in defined benefit pension plans

The portability feature of a defined contribution (DC) pension greatly reduces the risk to the accumulation of pension wealth. Conversely, defined benefit (DB) pensions have a variety of default risks that decrease the expected value of DB pension wealth. This paper examines those risks. Accrual of DB pension wealth is characterized in terms of purchases of risky bonds. Changing jobs triggers default on these bonds. Simulations are presented to show the potential loss in pension wealth from default. In addition, a methodology used to price corporate bonds is applied to generate estimates of the implied risk premiums of DB pension bonds over comparable riskless bonds.     

Political-economy of pension plans: Impact of institutions,gender, and culture

National pension systems are an important part of financial intermediation and worker welfare in most countries, but how and why do they differ internationally? Controlling for important political, economic and social institutions, we document that international differences in pension progressivity, or how pensions reflect lifetime earnings, are negatively related to masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, long-term orientation, employment rights, average pension levels, social trust and economic inequality. We also find that pension progressivity is positively related to the economic and societal role of women, the extent of Catholicism; as well as political voice and accountability. These results provide important insights for both public policy and MNC managers.     

Own company stock in defined contribution pension plans: A takeover defense?

If managers induce employees to hold company stock in defined contribution pension plans as a form of takeover defense, then changes in state laws that enhance managerial protection should lead to a reduction in employer stock in 401(k) plans. Delaware's mid-1990s validation of the poison pill in conjunction with a staggered board was followed by a significant decline in employee ownership within defined contribution plans for firms incorporated in Delaware. Evidence using governance data suggests that this is due to responses of firms with staggered boards. Binary choice models confirm that employee ownership in defined contribution plans lowers takeover probabilities.     

Understanding what drives the purchase decision in pension and investment products

The aims of this paper are to first seek an understanding of consumer decision-making when purchasing pension and investment products, and second to ascertain how this decision-making affects the consumer's choice of distribution route. The study employed both focus groups and postal questionnaire survey methods based on the framework of a classical decision-making model that investigated problem recognition, information search, evaluation tools used and post-purchase. The findings show that the decision-making process experience differed to a lesser or greater degree depending on the distribution route. The majority of respondents had recognised the need to make a purchase decision long before seeking information. Younger respondents on all incomes believed that they must make some pension provision for themselves as opposed to relying on the government's retirement provision. Many changed channels for information searches, but tended to settle with the Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The two main evaluation tools for pension and investment were found to be the ‘charges’ and ‘historic fund performance’. The vast majority of respondents reiterated their worry that the outcomes would not be known until retirement. In terms of analysis by the level of ‘financial literacy’, respondents who scored in the upper quartile were more inclined to be on a higher income, less inclined to evaluate on charges and more proactive in discussing the investment strategy of their pension fund. Respondents who scored in the lower quartile had opposite results. One of the implications of these findings is that the younger respondents’ recognition of pension savings favours the government's intention to reverse the existing balance of pension distribution. The other main implication is that the findings will be of help to managers in appreciating the dominance of the IFA channel by providing an explanation of why consumers choose this route, and, additionally, can assist direct marketing managers in identifying customers who will be more likely to use multichannel or single-channel shoppers. It can also help the marketing manager increase the usage of different channels by addressing the factors driving the purchase decision and distribution choice.     

Performance persistence and its influence on money and investor flows into Spanish pension plans

This article analyzes the phenomenon of performance persistence in Spanish equity pension plans between 1999 and 2006 to determine whether plans with higher performance in one period continue obtaining higher performance in the future. It also aims to determine the influence of past performance on investor behavior in order to examine whether money and investor flows of these portfolios are affected by past performance. The results reveal the existence of short-term performance persistence and a statistically significant relationship between historical returns and investment flows.

The effect of pension accounting on corporate pension asset allocation

We examine the impact of new pension disclosures and subsequent full pension recognition under FRS 17 and IAS 19 in the United Kingdom and SFAS 158 in the United States on pension asset allocation. These standards require recognition of net pension surplus/deficit on the balance sheet and actuarial gains/losses in other comprehensive income. Therefore, these standards introduce volatility into comprehensive income and balance sheets. We identify a disclosure period during which UK companies disclosed all the required data under FRS 17 in the notes without recognition. We also identify a full recognition period starting 1 year before until 1 year after the adoption of FRS 17/IAS 19 (UK) and SFAS 158 (US). We predict and find that UK companies, on average, shifted pension assets from equity to debt securities during both the disclosure and the full recognition periods. We also find that while before the adoption of SFAS 158 US companies maintained a stable allocation to equities and bonds, these companies, on average, shifted funds from equities to bonds around the adoption of SFAS 158. Cross-sectional analysis shows that the shift away from equities is related to changes in funding levels, shorter investment horizons, increased financial leverage, and the expected impact of the new standards on shareholders’ equity.     

The decision to trust

Surveys have shown that 80% of Americans don't trust corporate executives and--worse--that roughly half of all managers don't trust their own leaders. Mergers, downsizing, and globalization have accelerated the pace of change in organizations, creating a crisis of trust that didn't exist a generation ago. Leaders who understand how trust is built can actively influence its development, resulting in a more supportive and productive work environment and, not incidentally, a competitive advantage in the war for talent. Building on research in social psychology, and on his 15 years of experience consulting on trust, the author has developed a model for predicting whether trust or distrust will be chosen in a given situation. It helps managers analyze ten factors at play in the decision-making process. Hundreds of top executives have used it to diagnose and address the root causes of distrust in their work relationships. Some of the factors in the model relate to the decision maker: How tolerant of risk, how well-adjusted, and how relatively powerful is he or she? Others relate to the specific situation: How closely aligned are the interests of the parties concerned? Does the person who is asking to be trusted demonstrate competence? Predictability and integrity? Frequent and honest communication? Sue, a relatively new VP of sales, used the trust model to manage her relationship with Joe, an employee nearing retirement who was not performing well in a new sales role. Fearing for his job, Joe wasn't initially inclined to trust her. Sue took concrete steps to communicate openly with Joe, explore other options for him, and show concern for his well-being. When joe was transferred, he let his former colleagues know how pleased he was with Sue's handling of the situation. As a result, the level of trust increased in Sue's department, even though it was experiencing major change.     

The real risk in pension forecasting

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on some of the flaws in the forecasting approach undertaken by the pension industry. Specifically, it considers the treatment of inflation and shows that the current modeling framework is too simplistic. I identify the flaws of the existing regulatory framework and provide an alternative full model framework constructed around the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries. By use of a simulation study I compare the deterministic inflation scheme applied in the industry to a stochastic scheme and show that the real value of the pension saver’s investment portfolio at retirement is highly dependent on the inflation scheme. As the deterministic scheme does not take state variable correlations into account it overestimates the expected portfolio value in real terms compared to the stochastic scheme. Moreover, the deterministic scheme gives rise to a more heavy-tailed distribution implying a misestimation of downside risk and upside potential. Finally, it is shown in a realistic case study that the pension saver’s expected retirement payout profile is heavily affected.