家族企业创业者与职业经理冲突研究

在家族企业中，创业者和职业经理人目标的不一致导致双方产生冲突。这种冲突源于应得权利分配，而外部经理市场的健全程度、国家信用市场健康程度以及企业发展阶段等外部因素则影响到双方对现有应得权利分配比例的满意程度，并进而影响到双方冲突的程度和烈度。     

供应商-客户关系会影响企业的商业信用吗*——基于中国上市公司的实证检验

本文以我国上市公司为样本,实证检验了供应商-客户关系对企业商业信用融资规模和期限的影响。结果表明：供应商集中度越高,企业的商业信用融资规模越小,融资期限越短;当企业更容易获得银行贷款、企业所在地的产品市场发育程度更高时,供应商集中度与商业信用融资规模、融资期限之间的相关关系显著弱化。本文从新的视角丰富了企业战略与商业信用研究领域的文献,也为我国进行信贷市场及产品市场建设提供了证据支持。     

A Structural Analysis of Credit Risk With Risky Collateral: A Methodology for Haircut Determination

Although many credit risk pricing models exist in the academic literature, very little attention has been paid to the impact of risky collateral on credit risk. It is nonetheless well known that practitioners often mitigate credit risk with collateral, using so–called haircuts for collateral level determination. The presence of collateral has a complex effect that can not be analysed simply with existing models. We analyse the value of credit risk when there is collateral in a range of different situations, including dual–default in a simple setting, stochastic collateral, stochastic bond collateral with stochastic interest rates, continuous and discrete marking–to–market and margin calls. The models confirm many practical intuitions, such as the impact on the haircut level required of the risks of the collateral asset and of the underlying asset to the forward as well as the impact of their correlation. Moreover, the model supports the intuition that the frequency of marking–to–market and collateral are substitutes. The models also stress the possibly unexpected magnitude of these factors. More importantly, they give actual solutions to determining the value of the credit risk depending on the haircut chosen and the frequency of marking–to–markets, results not presented before in the literature. The models are also a good basis to understand the portfolio effect of collateral management. Finally, they illustrate how differences in prices may arise from pure differences of credit risk management, as illustrated here in the case of futures and forwards.
(J.E.L.: G13).     

利率管制松绑、企业会计信息披露质量与融资约束

已有研究发现,以资本价格——利率为代表的要素市场改革会对企业行为产生重要影响,但这种影响的作用机理如何通过改变资本市场中的信息供求关系予以实现,亟待深入研究。为此,本文以我国2013年央行全面放开利率管制为背景,基于产权性质差异构建双重差分模型,检验利率管制松绑在企业层面的信息溢出效应。研究发现:央行全面放开利率管制不仅有助于促进企业披露高质量的会计信息,还能够缓解企业的融资约束,且企业信息披露质量的提升是导致利率管制松绑降低融资约束的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,对于市场化程度较低地区、R&D投入较高以及短期贷款占比较大的公司,上述信息溢出效应更加显著;另外,利率管制松绑后企业披露高质量的会计信息能够增进投资者的信任,提高信息披露的价值相关性。以上研究结论表明,为应对利率市场化改革带来的机遇与挑战,保障可持续发展,企业会选择主动优化信息环境,来消除信贷市场摩擦,解决"融资难"问题。     

资产负债表的直接传染--一种银行与企业信用链上的信贷冲击乘数效应

文章立足于中国垄断竞争型的信贷市场,以直接金融对银行间接金融的替代性较弱为前提,深入分析了在经济或金融紧缩时期,银行贷款收缩或变动通过资产负债表的直接传染可能产生的一种信贷冲击乘数效应,并且指出,这种乘数效应可能与现有文献所研究的信用渠道中的银行借款渠道和金融加速器效应形成相互强化机制,进一步放大信贷变动对经济造成的冲击.     

诚信道德资本的生成机理及其价值实现

在现代市场经济条件下，诚信不仅是市场经济运行的基础和保障，而且也是一种能够被投入经济运行过程并增进社会财富的道德资本。诚信道德资本的生成，一方面是市场法则作用的必然结果，另一方面也在于完善的市场经济能够产生诚信道德资本的自动供给机制。诚信道德资本在经济运行过程中的投入与运作能够带来极大的经济效益。     

CREDIT, MONEY AND THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET CONSTRAINT

A credit market is introduced into an IS-LM model with wealth effects and the government budget constraint explicitly considered, The model is able to handle issues such as a credit market shock that would be impossible to examine in standard models without a credit market. The analysis of more standard policies or shocks is enhanced by recognition of the role of the credit market, thus supporting the view that such recognition is both feasible and warranted.     

Sustainable finance: The role of savings and credit cooperatives in Ecuador

The current world situation leads us to consider that sustainable development needs to be a global priority to ensure the future of the planet and improve the quality of life. There is a need for sustainable finance to support this. Savings and credit cooperatives could help to achieve this impact as they serve the microfinance and microlending market. They facilitate the financial inclusion of the most vulnerable people, most of whom live in rural areas and are members of organizations, such as agricultural cooperatives and associations. Previous studies have focused exclusively on overall profitability, so this paper contributes to extending the literature by analyzing the whole population of savings and credit cooperatives in Ecuador (510 institutions), focusing on their profitability in two ways: the overall profitability necessary for the viability of the business and, in addition, the microcredit portfolio profitability, as a specific measure of its contribution to sustainability and social value creation. Another novelty is that the analysis has been carried out using several machine learning techniques for the wider generalization of the results. These show that size is the most relevant variable for predicting the ROE and that the microcredit portfolio profitability is conditioned by the credit variables.     

Credit Rationing in Medium-small Enterprises Credit Market under Asymmetric Information

Credit rationing has been an objective phenomenon in medium-small enterprises credit market of China. By analyzing the present situation of medium-small enterprises credit market of China, this study gives a new credit rationing model fitting medium-small enterprises credit market of China well. It has been showed in the empirical study that different factor has each different influence on medium-small enterprises credit market; further more, only the change of chastisement factor can make the medium-small enterprises credit market achieve whole success, but other factors can merely get integrant success even though under the most ideal condition.     

FEDERAL ACQUISITION OF WATER THROUGH VOLUNTARY TRANSACTIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PURPOSES

Throughout U.S. history public land management agencies have attempted to achieve environmental objectives by relying on a broad range of policy tools, including both regulatory and voluntary mechanisms. An important component of these policies has been oriented toward the acquisition of land or partial interests in land from voluntary sellers. However, it has become clear that preserving or restoring damaged ecosystems increasingly requires more than land and easement acquisitions. The procurement of water for environmental purposes is becoming increasingly common. In some regions such acquisitions also represent a significant share of the local water market activity. Given the increasingly important role these transactions play in achieving federal environmental objectives, it makes sense to consider the alternative mechanisms available that could be used for such acquisitions. This paper examines the situations where the federal government has acquired water for environmental purposes and the extent to which competitive mechanisms—such as auctions—could be used in future acquisition efforts.     

商业银行信用卡业务发展与风险管理

回顾信用卡业务在我国的发展历程、分析信用卡业务的发展现状,不难发现中国已成为全球信用卡业务增长最快、发展潜力最大的市场。作为未来消费信贷的重要增长点,在金融行业民间资本准入制度的放开、全球化进程不断深入、移动互联快速普及的大数据时代,民间资本、外资银行对信用卡业务的广泛渗透,以及互联网金融的创新发展,必将导致国内信用卡业务参与方关系日趋复杂,信用卡市场竞争日趋激烈。因此,信用卡业务发展过程中所面临的问题及发行风险不容忽视。文中采用行为概率及效用函数的方法对信用卡消费行为进行博弈分析,应用行为分析的结果,对信用卡业务中诸如个人信用登记评估制度,发卡机构营销、审批机制和产品附加值,消费管理和奖惩制度及法律法规制定等相关问题进行了剖析,系统分析了银行信用卡发行过程中的风险,并对信用卡市场的健康发展提出了几点建议。     

Estimating the cost of equity for private firms using accounting fundamentals

Finance literature suggests the use of the Accounting Beta (BACC) as a proxy for the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) market beta to estimate the cost of equity capital when the stock price is not available. Previous researchers have aimed to achieve this objective by determining the correlation between accounting variables and the market beta. However, the magnitude of the resulting error in this correlation has remained unknown. The current study is an attempt to test the performance of the BACC as a proxy measure for the market risk and to examine the extent of the statistical error in the correlation between these two measures. Our findings indicate that BACC overestimates the market beta by between 20% and 50%. Applying some corrective measures, such as operational earnings scaled by equity, may lessen this difference to a range of 22%–25%; however, it does not eliminate the error. Our output also suggests that the BACC might be biased when used to assess the risk of small firms.     

热钱、房地产价格波动与金融体系稳定——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

热钱、房地产价格波动、银行信贷三者之间存在着一种自我强化的互馈机制,呈顺周期运行特征,会导致金融体系的不稳定,进而影响宏观经济。通过使用SVAR模型对我国房地产市场进行实证分析,结果发现：热钱推高了房价并且加剧了房价的波动,至少可以直接解释25％左右的房价波动,若进一步考虑货币供应量导致银行信贷扩张这一间接机制,其效果将更为可观。因此,要提高房地产调控政策的有效性、稳定金融市场,就必须加强对短期资本流动的监控,合理引导我国房地产市场的发展以及加速发展我国房地产金融体系,以达到控制和分散金融风险的目的。     

农地确权、信贷配给释缓与农村金融的深度发展*

作为一项基础性、制度环境层面的变革，农地确权帮助更多农户进入金融市场、促进农村金融宽度意义上的“量”变作用已经初步显现。但是，它是否可以提高农户贷款数量，缓解信贷配给并促进农村金融深度意义上的“质”变？这是一个重要但鲜有研究的问题。本文从供给、需求、交易成本、价格、风险配给等角度，分析了农地确权缓解信贷配给、促进农村金融深度发展的理论机理，并通过有序多分类变量回归及倾向得分匹配方法进行实证分析。研究表明，农地确权对农户金融参与深度的影响主要表现为：因降低信息成本而缓解价格配给，因弱化农户的损失规避心理而缓解风险配给；同时，数量配给和交易成本配给的释缓作用尚未充分显示。     

Why Credit Rating Agencies Exist

Although credit rating agencies exist and are important to the capital markets, there remains a question of why they should exist. Two standard theories are that rating agencies correct a problem of information asymmetry and that they de facto regulate investments. These theories do not fully answer the question. This paper suggests an alternative explanation. While rating agencies produce little new information, they sort information available in the credit market. This sorting function is needed due to the large volume of information in the credit market. Sorting facilitates better credit analysis and investment selection, but bond investors or a cooperative of them cannot easily replicate this function. Outside of their information intermediary and regulatory roles, rating agencies serve a useful market purpose even if credit ratings inherently provide little new information. This alternative explanation has policy implications for the regulation of the industry.     

有关外贸企业信用风险及其管理的研究

随着我国市场经济的不断发展,外贸企业之间的竞争日益激烈。很多外贸企业为了占据国外市场,会推出优惠的信用条件,以此作为增加客户的手段,但其信用风险也会随之增加。分析了导致外贸企业信用风险增加的原因,并提出对应管理措施。只有不断降低信用风险,以此提高外贸企业的竞争力,才能使企业不断扩大经营规模,促进企业的不断发展。     

NONPRICE COMPETITION IN THE TURKISH CREDIT CARD MARKET

Attempts to explain high and sticky credit card rates have given rise to a vast literature on credit card markets. This article endeavors to explain the rates in the Turkish market using measures of nonprice competition. In this market, issuers compete monopolistically by differentiating their credit card products. The fact that consumers perceive credit cards and all other banking services as a bundle allows banks to also employ bank level characteristics to differentiate their credit cards. Thus, the features and service quality of banks are expected to affect credit card rates. Panel data estimations also control for various costs associated with credit card lending. The results show that nonprice competition variables have significant and robust effects on credit card rates. (JEL G21, G28, O16)     

中国信贷市场匹配机制的再设计

我国的银行信贷市场呈现二元结构--目标客户与非目标客户信贷市场.两者有着不同的运行机制.目标客户信贷市场的议价过程存在一个类似企业"求婚"的递延接受程序,市场的运行结果稳定.非目标客户信贷市场不存在导致稳定结果的分散化匹配程序,市场广度和深度不够.为提高非目标客户信贷市场的稳定性和运行效率,我们建议通过公布银行信贷方案、设立非目标客户信贷中心、设立中央化的匹配清算所等,把分散化的议价过程变成中央化的匹配程序,从而完善和降低中小企业的交易成本,为中小企业的发展拓展广阔空间.     

信贷资金流向与资产价格波动间内在关联性分析

信贷资金入市的途径相当复杂。相对宽裕资金面,近乎无风险套利空间的存在,完整利益链条的形成,为信贷资金通过各种途径入市奠定了坚实的逻辑基础。信贷资金大规模入市,催生资产价格泡沫,其持续性是值得怀疑的。经济一旦反弹受阻,或银行利率短期大幅上升,导致人们的预期发生改变,资本市场泡沫必然破裂。     

我国信贷配给区域间差异及市场分化模型

由于我国不同区域间发展极不平衡,其中比较突出的是农村和城市、东南沿海和中西部地区之间,导致了我国信贷市场区域分化。信贷市场区域分化越严重,银行越会忽视部分弱势地区,而把资金集中在部分发达地区。近年来我国信贷资金这种区域集中现象越来越明显,不同区域表现出了巨大的信贷差异。文章首先通过部分相关数据和信贷调查分析了我国信贷市场的区域分化,然后建立了信贷配给的区域分化模型,分析不同区域间信贷差异以及信贷集中。最后给出了相关的结论和建议。