Saving and Investing Over the Life Cycle and the Role of Collective Pension Funds

Summary This paper surveys the academic literature on optimal saving and investment over an individual’s life cycle. We start out with a simple benchmark model with separable and smooth preferences, one aggregate risk factor and riskless wage income. Within this simple setting, optimal saving and investment behavior are explored from the perspective of individuals. Subsequently, we investigate various constraints to optimal individual decision making. We discuss how collective pension schemes may help to relieve some of the market incompleteness that arises from these constraints while at the same time introducing new types of constraints. Finally, various extensions to the benchmark setting are analyzed: a more elaborate modelling of human capital, additional risk factors, and other types of preferences. We thank Peter Kooreman for helpful comments on an earlier version and Roel Mehlkopf for research assistance.     

Growing Old in England: Economic and Social Issues

This paper examines the economic and social impact of changes in the duration of working life for the 80 per cent of older adults living in urban England. While some people are experiencing extended retirement because of moving out of paid work in their 50s, a growing minority of those beyond the state retirement age continue in paid employment. This paper highlights the considerable challenges for urban policy makers in addressing the economic and social inclusion of all older adults.     

The effects on unemployment of reducing social security contributions: A general equilibrium analysis for Belgium

Summary At the end of 1987, a group of Belgian economists suggested, with an eye to the increase in employment, to reduce social security contributions paid by firms and to compensate the resulting loss in government income by an increase of excise and value-added tax rates. We have constructed a general equilibrium model to study the consequences of such a measure and show that the reduction of unemployment is twice as large as what calculations using macroeconomic models had shown.Very useful (though far from unanimous) comments on a previous version of this paper were provided by Mathias Dewatripont, Peter Kooiman and Jean Waelbroeck. Before starting to work on this paper, one of the authors thought that the proposal made by his Belgian colleagues was unrealistic, and that this would obviously come out as a result of a general equilibrium model. Alas! Once the results were gathered, they pointed in the other direction and he, nolens volens, had to accept the consequences of his own construction. We are grateful to the Ministry of Economic Affairs (Energy Program) under contract 86-07R and toActions de Recherches Concertées under contract 84-89/65 for financial support.     

Lifting the television blackout on no-shows at football games

The invaluable assistance of Peter Abitante, Public Relations Department, National Football League Office is gratefully acknowledged. The authors are also indebted to Craig Brown and John Griffith for excellent research assistance. This work was supported in part by funds from the Foundation of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and from the State of North Carolina.     

Towards a new tax covenant

Summary In The Netherlands, the high tax burden on employment income cripples the labor market, whilst the highly differentiated, if low, tax burden on capital income distorts the capital market. Building on the experience with dual income taxation in the Nordic countries, a new tax covenant is proposed comprising lower average and marginal tax rates on labor income and a more even-handed treatment of capital income. Specifically, capital income should be taxed at a low, proportional rate. Flanking measures are required to improve the workings of the labor market; notably, social benefits for people who can work as well as housing subsidies should be reduced. More fundamentally, a change in the social order is desirable which places greater weight on equal opportunities instead of equal outcomes.Thou shalt not muzzle the ox when the treadeth out the cornDeuteronomy 25:4 The author is grateful to Richard Bird, Lans Bovenberg, Flip de Kam, Jeroen Kremers, Ruud de Mooij, Leif Mutén, and Peter Sørensen for their stimulating comments on an earlier version of this article.Adapted from the Dutch version of the commencement address delivered at Earsmus University Rotterdam on November 8, 1994. Amounts in guilders can be converted into dollars by applying the exchange rate: Dfl. 1=US$ 0.63 (March 31, 1995).     

Measuring Lifetime Redistribution in Dutch Occupational Pensions

Summary  This paper assesses how the Dutch system of occupational pensions redistributes between and within generations. The approach in this paper deviates from the usual approach by incorporating the full life cycle in the measurements, rather than only the annual effects. In order to quantify redistribution, we use the level of educational attainment, gender and age to classify the pension fund population. For all groups distinguished, we measure in present value terms the average net benefit from participating in occupational pensions. The results indicate a sizable redistribution from males to females and from low educated to higher educated workers. On a lifetime basis, the impact of intergenerational transfers is modest. I am grateful to the two anonymous referees, Ed Westerhout, Casper van Ewijk, Lex Meijdam, Yvonne Adema and Peter Kooiman for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, and to Andre Nibbelink for his valuable computational assistance.     

Shifting the growth path to achieve employment intensive growth in South Africa

‘Employment intensive growth’ has become a centrepiece of government policy and implies that at any given level of growth, the economy needs to become more labour absorbing. State intervention (or the lack of it) is examined in two areas that are important for employment – agriculture and manufacturing. In the case of agriculture, it is argued that declining and ineffective state support has accelerated the rationalisation of commercial agriculture and failed to regenerate agriculture in the former Bantustans. With regard to the manufacturing sector, we argue that since 1994 the government has set a multiplicity of objectives but, de facto, there has been a surprising level of continuity in the overly generous assistance for heavy, capital-intensive industry. This paper argues that the negative impact of previous ‘distortions’ requires much more than a levelling of the playing field via market-based reforms. Pro-employment policies have to be placed at the centre of the policy agenda.     

农村劳动力回流、就业选择与农地转出——基于千村调查的经验研究

农村劳动力回流趋势增强,不可避免对农地流转产生影响。文章在理论层面深入剖析了回流劳动力的就业选择与农地转出关系,并采用上海财经大学"千村调查"的数据资料,实证检验了农村劳动力回流特征变化和回流劳动力就业选择对农地转出的影响。研究发现,受非农就业不稳定的推力作用和与家人团聚的拉力作用,越来越多的外出劳动力选择回流,西部外出劳动力回流率最高,达到47.2%。回流劳动力的农地转出率普遍高于非回流劳动力的农地转出率,回流劳动力从事非农生产的就业选择对农地转出存在促进效应,而兼业和务农的选择对农地转出存在抑制效应,这意味着回流农村劳动力并非一定会选择农业生产,也可能选择在更小的地理半径内从事非农就业,并且长期外出从事技术工的经历进一步增强了劳动力回流对农地转出的抑制效应。虽然回流劳动力更倾向非农就业,但回流劳动力规模的扩大,使得兼业和纯务农的比例增加,对农地转出的抑制效应呈增强趋势。研究还发现,个人特征、家庭因素、社会网络也是影响劳动力就业选择和农地转出的重要因素,基层政府和地方政府在推动非农就业的政策合力上存在部分抵消,对农地转出产生了抑制作用。文章为农地流转进程缓慢提供了新的解释,推进农地流转需要关注农村劳动力流动特征新变化,同时兼顾各层级政策目标的衔接性。     

On the determinants of bonuses and basic wages in large Japanese firms

The profit-sharing model has attracted considerable attention as a hypothesis to explain wage flexibility and employment stability in Japan. This paper presents an alternative explanation of how bonuses and basic wages are determined in Japan, based on the efficiency wage hypothesis. In particular, we focus on the aspect that bonuses are paid to compensate employees for the intensity of work experienced during the last period, and basic wages are affected mainly by labor market conditions and are not firm-specific. We compare the two models, testing them for both industry aggregate data and firm microdata.     

Three Perspectives on the Dutch Growth of Flexible Employment

The growth in flexible work arrangements has been more pronounced in the Netherlands than in most other western economies. Own account work, fixed-term contracts and contracts with variable hours all have become more prevalent since the early 2000’s. This paper describes the growth of flexible work arrangements from three perspectives. The institutional perspective reveals that the Dutch institutions provide incentives and possibilities for employers to circumvent institution-based risks and costs, and for workers to avoid taxes and social security contributions. The individual perspective shows that most workers nevertheless prefer an open-ended employment contract, which some groups manage to obtain more often than others. Over the life cycle the share of flexible employment contracts decreases among all cohorts and all social groups, but more so among the higher educated and men. Own account work, which is mostly a positive choice, increases over the life cycle. The job perspective shows that flexible work arrangements have grown in all sectors of the economy. In some sectors the increase is predominantly in own account work, in other sectors predominantly in flexible employment contracts, without a clear relation to sector characteristics.     

Promoting Small Scale and Cottage Industries in Indonesia: An Impact Analysis for Central Java

This paper reviews the promotion of small scale and cottage industries (SSCI) in Indonesia and its impact on employment creation. The review was conducted for the province of Central Java, the ‘heartland’ of SSCI employment. Secondary data showed that participation rates in technical and financial assistance programs for SSCI are low, suggesting that programs may continue for many years before a majority of SSCI producers are reached. A field survey in six clusters of SSCI investigated the effectiveness of current programs to enhance the development of these industries. The analysis provides little evidence that the programs have a positive impact on employment in the less dynamic clusters of SSCI. In the very dynamic clusters, firms using a combination of technical and financial assistance were most successful in terms of employment generation. The study concludes that present assistance programs are not a ‘cause’ of employment growth in SSCI, but are accommodating such growth.     

企业差异化优势的构建组合及应用

本文以迈克尔·波特的差异化战略理论为基础,沿着市场景框和整体产品两个维度,探讨了差异化优势构建的组合,提出了应用差异化优势组合需要把握差异化“度”和持续性。     

The Impact of Work-Life Balance Policies on the Time Allocation and Fertility Preference of Japanese Women

We analyse the impact of work-life balance policies enacted by the government of Japan on the share of time allocated by Japanese women to paid employment, home production and leisure on a typical working day. Using panel data and employing fixed effects to control for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find that these policies have had some success in increasing married women’s share of time spent in paid employment. However, the increase in the share of time spent in paid employment is not largely compensated by cutting down the share of time spent in home production. This necessitates the need to cut down the share of time spent for leisure, implying a “double burden” of work for women. Further, work-life balance policies in married men’s firms do not appear to significantly influence their time allocation between various activities on a typical working day. We find that although work-life balance policies do not appear to influence the desirability of having a child for all women, they help women with children younger than six years raise the share of time spent in paid employment by largely cutting down their time allocation to home production.     

The origin and insignificance of labour market imperfections in the Netherlands: Another note on the specification of the UV curve 1955–1980

Summary This paper reestimates the UV curve for the Netherlands 1955-1980 and challenges the conclusions based on previous specifications of the curve. The specification finally chosen solves not only the technical problems of autocorrelation and the like, but also yields insight into the origins of the upward shift of the UV curve. The majority of the factors responsible for the rise in unemployment due to labour market imperfections bears a clearly cyclical character. The qualification of this type of unemployment as structural seems therefore incorrect and misleads policy intentions towards inefficient micro-economic labour market policy.I acknowledge the stimulating comments in the critical remarks of S. Kuipers, Th. van de Klundert and J. Muysken and the statistical assistance of Karl Driessen. The very start of this project was made possible with the financial assistance of the National Program for Labour Market Research (NPAO-ZWO No. 45–39).     

对东北地区增值税转型的思考

增值税转型的突出问题是财政缺口,弥补这个缺口需要寻找更多的财政收入来源;投资过热也不容忽视,应扩大试点范围,对投资正确引导,均衡投资,避免盲目集中投资;就业问题关系社会稳定也要关注,国家完善社会保障制度,可缓解就业压力。企业的减负效果不太明显,随着制度的不断完善,会有改观,企业应做长远的打算。     

Microeconomic determinants of spatial mobility in post-apartheid South Africa: Longitudinal evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study

Migration, important for many areas in development, is strongly related to employment. Debate over labour supply in developing countries frequently hinges on labour migration. This paper examines the determinants of spatial mobility of working-age adults in South Africa, using the first nationally representative longitudinal survey – the National Income Dynamics Study – for 2008–10. The paper outlines the unique advantages of these data for the study of individual mobility – data that open the possibility of a new research project. Specifically, it asks how policy-relevant programmes, such as social transfers and housing assistance, affect migration. This paper finds, on balance, that transfers are negatively correlated with subsequent relocation. Previous migration is also predictive of future migration and both are tightly related to attrition, while there is an increasing but strongly non-linear relationship between income and mobility. Further, we highlight potential pitfalls – including attrition, and definitional difficulties – in the study of migration and illustrate possible solutions.     

IS-LM: The Hicksian journey

Summary In the economics profession John Hicks is mainly known for his work during the 1930s. This paper is aimed at tracing the further development of Hicks' thinking, focussing on his IS-LM apparatus. During the 1950s Hicks used IS-LM to elucidate several issues, as in his Trade Cycle book and his review of Don Patinkin's Money, Interest and Prices. In the ensuing exchange Patinkin showed several weaknesses of IS-LM and pointed to new directions for research: the development of more elaborate models of the transmission mechanism and disequilibrium theory. But Hicks did not really participate in these developments, since, owing to methodological considerations, his thinking diverged more and more from mainstream economics.I would like to thank Jürgen Backhaus, Peter de Gijsel, Jan Snippe, Vic Van Rompuy, Arjen van Witteloostuijn and an anonymous referee for their comments on a former draft. Naturally, only the author is responsible for the opinions here expressed, as well as for any remaining shortcomings.     

Is the Dutch consumer a true ricardian?

Summary In this paper the intertemporal optimization approach is adopted in order to estimate an empirical version of Blanchard's (1985) overlapping generations model. The observed sluggishness in consumption is incorporated into the model by recognizing both durability and habit formation as relevant determinants of total consumption. The model is estimated using quarterly data for The Netherlands from 1969:I to 1990:IV. The empirical estimates suggest that the status of the Dutch consumer as a true Ricardian is unambiguously rejected. The results furthermore suggest that this rejection is due to the existence of both liquidity constraints and finite planning horizons.Comments by Peter Broer, Jeroen Kremers, Debora Molenaar, Rick van der Ploeg, Frans Spinnewyn, Casper de Vries, Ed Westerhout and two anonymous referees are very much appreciated. Elbert Dijkgraaf has provided invaluable research assistance. We also thank participants of the OCFEB workshop and the CES seminar at the K.U. Leuven for their comments.     

浅谈自主学习的含义及理论依据

科技的飞速发展,要求人们在完成高等教育后仍需继续学习,这样才能适应社会竞争与变化。教育不再仅仅是就业的需要,它贯穿于学习者的一生。而语言学习和教学作为整个教育过程的一部分,也应致力于这一教育目标。自主性学习起着越来越重要的作用,本作者重点讨论了自主性学习的含义和它的理论依据。     

依托社区推进低碳生活方式的途径

低碳生活方式是环境道德意识下的生活方式选择,引导这一选择内在动机的影响因素包括相关知识和价值观,外在条件的影响因素包括机制和方便性。低碳生活方式价值观应该定位于中国传统文化中的环境观和幸福观,起步于朴素、节约、惜物、体劳、分享、敬天等具体生活理念。依托社区推行低碳生活方式,需要在推行活动的不同阶段,施加指向性的影响。