Credit market frictions and the allocation of resources over the business cycle

In a seminal paper, Davis and Haltiwanger (1990) demonstrated that recessions are associated with increased job reallocation. The conventional view has interpreted this as evidence of “cleansing”: less productive jobs are destroyed in recessions, and resources are reallocated to more productive uses. This paper argues instead that in the presence of credit market frictions, reallocation might go the other way, directing resources from more efficient to less efficient uses. This will occur if more efficient production arrangements are also more vulnerable to credit constraints. I show that this pattern arises endogenously in an equilibrium model, and offer some evidence that firms with higher output per worker tend to borrow more, suggesting they are more vulnerable to credit constrains.     

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.     

Decentralization of the firm: theory and evidence

Value maximization requires either that knowledge is transferred to those with the right to make decisions, or that decision rights are transferred to those who have the knowledge. A tradeoff of knowledge transfer costs and control costs is required. Characteristics of firms' investment opportunity sets (IOSs) that affect knowledge transfer costs and control costs are identified. Testable predictions about the relations between these characteristics and firms' decentralization decisions are developed and tested. The evidence presented is consistent with our predictions and is robust to different ways of measuring variables.     

Competition within the firm: theory plus some evidence from medical group practice.

Recent work on the economics of the firm and other organizations has emphasized the importance of internal organization and incentives. The issue of competition within the firm has not arisen, however. In this article I construct a model of nonprice competition among members of a professional partnership and test the model with data on medical group practice. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis of nonprice competition among members of the firm.     

Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle

Housing and mortgage debt are studied in a quantitative general equilibrium model. The model matches wealth distribution, age profiles of homeownership and debt, and frequency of housing adjustment. Over the cycle, the model matches the cyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of debt. Higher individual income risk and lower downpayments can explain the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of debt, and part of the reduced volatility of GDP. In an experiment that mimics the Great Recession, countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and debt following large negative shocks.     

External financing and the role of financial frictions over the business cycle: Measurement and theory

Empirically, there is substantial cross-sectional variation in firms’ use of external funds: roughly 80% of investment by privately held firms is financed externally, compared to 20% for publicly traded firms. In a model consistent with privately held and publicly traded firms’ use of external funds, financial shocks generate only a modest response of output. This exercise casts doubt on the ability of financial shocks to generate significant economic fluctuations and emphasizes the role of non-financial linkages in understanding the importance of financial shocks.     

The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle

We examine how the banking sector could ignite the formation of asset price bubbles when there is access to abundant liquidity. Inside banks, to induce effort, loan officers are compensated based on the volume of loans. Volume-based compensation also induces greater risk taking; however, due to lack of commitment, loan officers are penalized ex post only if banks suffer a high enough liquidity shortfall. Outside banks, when there is heightened macroeconomic risk, investors reduce direct investment and hold more bank deposits. This ‘flight to quality’ leaves banks flush with liquidity, lowering the sensitivity of bankers’ payoffs to downside risks and inducing excessive credit volume and asset price bubbles. The seeds of a crisis are thus sown.     

Bond market access and acquisitions: empirical evidence from the European market

We investigate whether access to bond markets affects acquisition activity of the European firms between 1999 and 2014. Our study provides insight into the effect that the growing European bond market has on corporate investment activity. We find that access to the bond markets, measured by the existence of a credit rating, has a significant effect on the tendency of firms to make acquisitions. The effect is strongest in Continental Europe and during times of high acquisition activity. We further find that consistent with prior U.S. evidence, bond market access has an inverse effect on abnormal returns generated by the acquisitions. That finding suggests that firms with superior access to financing pursue targets of lesser quality.     

Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle

The low correlation between cyclical unemployment and productivity over the post-war period hides a large sign switch in the mid-1980s: from significantly negative the correlation became significantly positive. Using a search model of unemployment with nominal rigidities and variable labor effort, I show that technology shocks can generate a positive unemployment-productivity correlation whereas non-technology shocks (i.e. aggregate demand shocks) tend to do the opposite. In this context, I identify two events that can quantitatively explain the increase in the correlation: (i) a sharp drop in the volatility of non-technology shocks in the mid-1980s, and (ii) a decline in the response of productivity to non-technology shocks, which from procyclical became acyclical in the last 25 years.     

Corporate risk management and firm value: evidence from the UK market

The paper evaluates the effect of corporate risk management activities on firm value, using a sample of large UK non-financial firms. Following recent changes in financial reporting standards, we are able to collect detailed information on risk management activities from audited financial reports. This enables us to gain a better understanding of risk management practices and to investigate value implications of different types of hedging. Overall 86.88% of the firms in the sample use derivatives to manage at least one type of price risk. The hedging premium is statistically and economically significant for foreign currency derivative users, while we provide weak evidence that interest rate hedging increases firm value. The extent of hedging and the hedging horizon have an impact on the hedging premium, whereas operational risk management activities do not significantly influence the market value of the firm.     

Solvency II,asset liability management,and the European bond market – theory and empirical evidence

It is already foreseeable that Solvency II will tie capital requirements to a very comprehensive risk definition including underwriting and market risks. The new regulatory framework will demand more sophisticated tools to detect interest rate risks on both sides of the balance sheet in an integrated approach. Efforts by life insurers to level these risks could lead to an increased demand for long term fixed income securities. At this point the question arises if this industry wide change in asset demand will have or already has had an impact on prices of long-term bonds and the yield curve in the Euro-Zone?     

Collateral affects return risk: evidence from the euro bond market

Covered bonds and senior bonds are prominent securities in the euro bond market. Senior bonds are unsecured, while covered bonds are secured—backed by collateral. Our results show that the presence of collateral reduces the total risk in individual bonds by more than 70%. Compared to diversified portfolios of senior bonds, diversified portfolios of covered bonds have a significantly lower level of systematic risk. However, the fraction of systematic risk to total risk is higher for covered bonds. By decomposing the variance of bond returns, we find that around 33% of the risk in senior bonds is systematic, versus 53% in covered bonds. Both types of bonds contain instrument-specific risk.

     

The degree of internationalization and the value of the firm: theory and evidence

A valuation approach is used to examine the effects of the degree of internationalization on the relation between the market value of a firm’s stock and the book value of equity. Degree of internationalization was measured by both foreign revenues over total revenues and foreign assets over total assets. Results on the “Most International” 100 U.S. firms indicate a consistent and positive relation between each measure of the degree of internationalization and the value of equity.     

Liquidity and price pressure in the corporate bond market: evidence from mega-bonds

Larger bonds offer greater liquidity, which should reduce their yields. A simple way for firms to reduce financing costs is to sell bonds with large face values. We find that mega-bonds are more liquid than smaller bonds. However, offering yield spreads on mega-bonds are not lower and are higher than spreads of bonds issued by similar companies. The discount applied to large new issues is consistent with price pressure effects that are also present in the secondary market prices of the issuing firm's existing bonds. Our results suggest a hidden cost to issuing very liquid bonds.     

Provisioning over the business cycle: Some insights from the microfinance industry

This paper investigates the drivers of provisioning in MFIs and their provisioning behaviour over the business cycle. Based on an international sample of MFIs extracted from the MIX database over the 2001–2014 period, we uncover a negative relationship between MFIs' provisioning and the business cycle. Our finding corroborates the fact that MFIs do not build their loan loss provisions (LLP) during economic booms when profit and earnings are high. Since they provision more during downturns, they are more likely to suffer from unexpected losses and experience failure. This is in sharp contrast with the current Basel III countercyclical buffer requirement suggesting that financial institutions, especially banks, should build sufficient buffer in booms so that they can avoid costly capital adjustment when the economy contracts. Deeper analyses suggest however that this behaviour mainly concerns profit-oriented and deposit-taking/regulated MFIs, with business model and target close to conventional banking. This suggests that bank-like and regulated MFIs' loan loss provisions follow similar behavioral patterns to those of the conventional banking sector during the boom-and-bust cycles.     

Alternative approaches to the theory of the banking firm: A note

In his survey and discussion of alternative approaches to the theory of the banking firm, E. Baltensperger claims that M. Klein's result of independence of a bank's optimal asset choice from optimal liability choice is clearly the consequence of the very special assumption that the density function of deposit outflows is independent of deposit composition. This paper examines the conditions under which Klein's result holds, even when the stochastic reserve flows depend on deposit composition. It shows that the independence of commercial loan portfolio size on deposit composition follows from monopolistic competition in the commercial loans market, rather than from the very special assumption which Baltensperger denounces.     

Prospect theory and the risk-return paradox: some recent evidence

There is extensive evidence indicating a negative risk–return relation when a firm’s performance is measured based on accounting measures such as return on asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). Previous studies show that the risk-return paradox can be explained by the prospect theory, which predicts that managers’ risk attitudes are different for firms of different performances. However, those studies mostly use earlier data from the COMPUSTAT database, which suffers from a survivorship bias. Failure to account for delisting firms may understate the risk–return relation. We reexamine the mixture of risk-seeking and risk-averse behaviors based on an updated 20-year sample period that is free from the survivorship problem. Interestingly, our results show stronger and robust evidence supporting the prospect theory during the period from 1984 to 2003.     

Global equity offerings and access to domestic loan market: U.S. evidence

This study examines whether and to what extend global equity offerings at the IPO stage may affect issuing firms' ability to borrow in the domestic debt market. Tracking bank loans taken by U.S. IPO firms in the domestic syndicated loan market, we observe that global equity offering firms experience more favorable loan price than that offered to their domestic counterparts. This finding holds for a set of robustness tests of endogeneity issues. We also find that, compared with their domestic counterparts, global equity offering firms are less likely to have financial distress, engage more in international diversification, and are more likely to wait a longer time to apply for syndicated loans.     

The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market

I study the information content of bond ratings changes using daily corporate bond data from TRACE. Abnormal bond returns over a two-day event window that includes the downgrade (upgrade) are negative (positive) and statistically significant, although the reaction to upgrades is economically small. Monthly abnormal bond returns around downgrades and upgrades are statistically significant but overstate the magnitude of the reaction relative to two-day abnormal returns. Unlike the bond market, the stock market reaction to upgrades is statistically insignificant. Evidence suggests that the differing inferences on the effect of upgrades in the two markets can be attributed to wealth transfer effects rather than relative market inefficiencies. In the cross-section, the bond market response is stronger for rating changes that appear more surprising, rating changes of lower rated firms, and upgrades that move the firm from speculative grade to investment grade.