Sudden crash or long torture: The timing of market reactions to operational loss events

An emerging literature investigating market responses to operational loss announcements concludes that financial markets tend usually to overreact to loss events. This overreaction is commonly interpreted as reputational damage. We revisit this issue by focusing on the timing of markets’ reactions and highlight two variables: the start and the speed of stock markets’ responses. It appears that when operational losses are caused by internal fraud the negative market reaction materializes earlier and faster. Industry sectors and prevailing market conditions influence the timing of market reactions as well. Our empirical findings reveal moreover that a higher initial grading of the company is associated with a later stock market reaction to the announcement. While the relative magnitude and the length of markets’ overreactions is positively correlated to the concomitant downgrading our study shows that overreaction magnitudes are also strongly correlated to our estimate of the total duration of the reaction.     

Exploring the market risk profiles of US and European stock insurers

Market risks account for an integral part of insurers' risk profiles. We explore market risk sensitivities of insurers in the United States and Europe. Based on panel regression models and daily market data from 2012 to 2018, we find that sensitivities are particularly driven by insurers' product portfolio. The influence of interest rate movements on stock returns is 60% larger for US than for European life insurers. For the former, interest rate risk is a dominant market risk with an effect that is five times larger than through corporate credit risk. For European life insurers, the sensitivity to interest rate changes is only 44% larger than toward credit default swap of government bonds, underlining the relevance of sovereign credit risk.     

An internal control perspective on the market value consequences of IT operational risk events

IT internal controls are an important component of an organization's arsenal of internal controls. Upon conceptualizing failures of operational IT systems, or what we call IT operational risk events, as signals of IT internal control weaknesses, we theorize about these events' impact on internal control objectives in general and about how this impact is influenced by the regulatory environment in particular. We then perform an event study to examine the economic impact of a diversified sample of IT operational risk events from the U.S. financial services industry during 1985–2009. We specifically test the impact of contextual factors on the degree of this effect, including the events' target (confidentiality, integrity, or availability of IT assets), the source of disclosure (regulatory or voluntary), the enactment of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, and firm-specific attributes. We find that investors penalize firms most strongly for experiencing events that compromise the availability of IT systems, consistent with our prediction that these events more negatively impact the reliability of financial reporting and the efficiency and effectiveness of operations. This result contrasts extant empirical studies that are predominantly concerned with information and security breaches. We find also that investors' penalty is the strongest for firms experiencing IT operational risk events that occurred after the passing of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act or were disclosed by a regulatory body. Finally, the market reaction is shown to be stronger for firms with high growth potential, firms that are larger, riskier, and are in the banking sector. Implications for research and practice are discussed along with directions for future research.     

The resolution of cross-border banks: Issues for deposit insurers and proposals for cooperation

This paper reviews critical legal and policy issues created by cross-border banking insolvencies. These include (I) Insolvency principles, such as (1) criteria for intervention; (2) deposit insurance; (3) power to manage; (4) ability to maximize recoveries. Also included is (II) International legal complications. Critical issues in cross-border crisis management involve: (1) division of labor between home and host countries; (2) the availability of information; (3) the legal, regulatory and supervisory framework; (4) the law governing initiation of proceedings; (5) grounds for intervention; (6) deposit insurance; (7) legal powers of controlling authorities; (8) the potential financial and economic effects. We conclude with a few proposals for cooperation.     

Connected and autonomous vehicle injury loss events: Potential risk and actuarial considerations for primary insurers

The introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) to the road transport ecosystem will change the manner of collisions. CAVs are expected to optimize the safety of road users and the wider environment, while alleviating traffic congestion and maximizing occupant comfort. The net result is a reduction in the frequency of motor vehicle collisions, and a reduction in the number of injuries currently seen as “preventable.” A changing risk ecosystem will introduce new challenges and opportunities for primary insurers. Prior studies have highlighted the economic benefit provided by reductions in the frequency of hazardous events. This economic benefit, however, will be offset by the economic detriment incurred by emerging risks and the increased scrutiny placed on existing risks. We posit four plausible scenarios detailing how an introduction of these technologies could result in a larger relative rate of injury claims currently characterized as tail‐risk events. In such a scenario, the culmination of these losses will present as a second “hump” in actuarial loss models. We discuss how CAV risk factors and traffic dynamics may combine to make a second “hump” a plausible reality, and discuss a number of opportunities that may arise for primary insurers from a changing road environment.     

Systemic risk and diversification across European banks and insurers

The mutual and cross company exposures to fat-tail distributed risks determine the potential impact of a financial crisis on banks and insurers. We examine the systemic interdependencies within and across the European banking and insurance sectors during times of stress by means of extreme value analysis. While insurers exhibit a slightly higher interdependency in comparison with banks, the interdependency across the two sectors turns out to be considerably lower. This suggests that downside risk can be lowered through financial conglomeration.     

The impact of hedging on the market value of equity

We examine the annual stock performance of firms that disclose the use of derivatives to hedge over the period 1995 to 1999. We find that only 21.6% of publicly traded U.S. corporations in our sample hedged with derivative instruments over this period and their use is concentrated in the larger companies. Similar to other studies we find that when derivatives are used, interest rate and currency securities are used much more frequently than commodity products. Our sample of 1308 companies that hedge outperforms other securities by 4.3% per year on average over our sample period. This result is robust to several alternative methods of estimating abnormal returns. When we segment performance by the type of hedge used, however, we find that the over-performance is due entirely to larger firms that hedge currency. We find no abnormal returns for firms hedging either interest rates or commodities. The abnormal returns in firms hedging currency is robust to alternative models that seek to control for exchange rate fluctuations and global equity returns; however, we find no significant abnormal returns to currency hedgers when using an augmented model that controls for the role of intangible assets.     

Impact of corporate governance and related controversies on the market value of banks

Effective corporate governance of financial institutions, particularly in the banking sector, is vital for the stability of the financial system and the prevention of financial crises. Thus, this study examines the impact of corporate governance and related controversies on the market value of banks. For this purpose, we utilized Refinitiv’s corporate governance scores, including management, shareholder value, and corporate social responsibility (CSR), as well as its corporate governance controversies scores to analyze their impact on the market value of 242 banks in 43 countries. Using Refinitiv’s ESG database from 2017 to 2021, we conducted a path analysis and found a positive and statistically significant relationship between the CSR strategy scores and the market value of banks as well as between the management scores and the market value of banks. Moreover, there is a statistically significant relationship between the corporate governance controversies scores and the market value of banks.     

The dynamics of operational loss clustering

This paper investigates the characteristics of the operational loss data formation mechanism that takes place between the date of discovery of a new operational risk event and the final settlement date on which all losses are materialized. The first loss that characterizes the initial impact of a new operational risk event frequently triggers a sequence of related losses. Then, losses generated by the same event are not independent and follow a predictable scheme and the frequency of secondary losses is not homogeneous: both are functions of the initial loss amount and time. We model the arrival intensity and loss severities with a shot-noise stochastic process and derive its key properties. We then discuss implications of our model for the estimation of the regulatory capital charge for operational risk. In an empirical analysis, we find strong evidence of a shot-noise behavior in operational losses using the data of a major US commercial bank.     

The cost of operational risk loss insurance

Using the Algo FIRST operational risk database, this paper computes the cost of operational risk loss insurance for a sample of banks over a 1-year horizon. The estimated cost of 1-year operational risk loss insurance for an average bank is 1.24% as a percentage of firm value on December 31, 2006, while an average AA bank is 0.24%. These estimates far exceed the typical 1-year default insurance premiums as reflected in market CDS rates for similarly rated banks. These insurance premiums confirm the economic importance of operational risk in the management of financial institutions.     

The price impact of order book events: market orders,limit orders and cancellations

While the long-ranged correlation of market orders and their impact on prices has been relatively well studied in the literature, the corresponding studies of limit orders and cancellations are scarce. We provide here an empirical study of the cross-correlation between all these different events, and their respective impact on future price changes. We define and extract from the data the ‘bare’ impact these events would have if they were to happen in isolation. For large tick stocks, we show that a model where the bare impact of all events is permanent and non-fluctuating is in good agreement with the data. For small tick stocks, however, bare impacts must contain a history-dependent part, reflecting the internal fluctuations of the order book. We show that this effect can be accurately described by an autoregressive model of the past order flow. This framework allows us to decompose the impact of an event into three parts: an instantaneous jump component, the modification of the future rates of the different events, and the modification of the jump sizes of future events. We compare in detail the present formalism with the temporary impact model that was proposed earlier to describe the impact of market orders when other types of events are not observed. Finally, we extend the model to describe the dynamics of the bid–ask spread.     

The return to retail and the performance of US banks

The US banking industry is experiencing a renewed focus on retail banking, a trend often attributed to the stability and profitability of retail activities. This paper examines the impact of banks’ retail intensity on performance from 1997 to 2004 by developing three complementary definitions of retail intensity (retail loan share, retail deposit share, and branches per dollar of assets) and comparing these measures with both equity market and accounting measures of performance. We find that an increased focus on retail banking across US banks is linked with significantly lower equity market and accounting returns for all banks, but lower volatility for only the largest banking companies. We conclude that retail banking may be a relatively stable activity, but it is also a low return one.     

Testing for effective market supervision of New Zealand banks

There is a considerable amount of research that seeks to determine the extent to which retail market participants exert market discipline on banks either through the price approach (the correlation of price to risk), or the quantity approach (the movement of funds in response to changes in risk). In this paper we propose and implement a third approach: the retail market conditions approach. We seek to determine if the prerequisites for the exertion of effective market discipline by stakeholder monitors, as set out in Llewellyn and Mayes (2003. The role of market discipline in handling problem banks. Bank of Finland Discussion Papers. <http://www.bof.fi/eng/7_tutkimus/index.stm> (retrieved 13.04.04)), prevail by directly examining conditions that prevail among retail market participants. We find little evidence to support the proposition that they are being met among New Zealand retail depositors.     

Competing for underwriting market share: The case of commercial banks and securities firms

This study analyzes changes in the underwriting market share of securities firms and commercial banks over a 20-year period that encompasses the deregulation period of 1989–1999. The study finds that, after controlling for firm combination effects, there is no evidence that commercial banks gained share at the expense of ranked traditional underwriters. There is strong evidence that market breadth helps both securities firms and commercial banks to gain market share, whereas greater share in the underwriting of a specific security has the opposite effect on next year's market share. There is supportive but limited evidence that high-volume years favor commercial banks, whereas low-volume years favor prestigious underwriters. The influence of firm-specific factors is limited to a few markets, which may explain the stickiness of underwriting market share of ranked firms over time.     

The impact of CRA agreements on community banks

We develop three empirical models to identify the impact of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) agreements on the mortgage lending behavior of small banking institutions during the period 1990–1997. CRA agreements are pledges banking institutions make to extend levels of credit to targeted populations and are often used by institutions to reaffirm their commitment to the goals of the CRA. We hypothesize that CRA agreements increase the level of competition for mortgage loans in the targeted area, which in turn causes a reduction in the quantity of mortgage credit to be supplied by community banks. Consistent with the quantity hypothesis, the results show that CRA agreements are associated with less mortgage lending, including lending in lower-income communities (CRA lending) and in minority communities (minority lending), by small community lenders. Evidence does not support a second hypothesis – that community banks respond to the increased competition by providing credit to riskier individuals.     

The procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks

From a sample of Islamic banks around the world from 1997 to 2012, this paper examines whether loan loss provisioning in Islamic banks is procyclical. Our empirical findings highlight that loan loss provisioning in Islamic banks remains procyclical, although the ‘expected’ loan loss model (E-LLM) has been implemented for Islamic banks in several countries. A closer investigation further documents that Islamic banks also use loan loss provisions for discretionary managerial actions, especially related to capital management in which loan loss reserves and provisions are inflated when bank capitalization declines. Eventually, this paper highlights that higher capitalization can mitigate the procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks. In other words, loan loss provisioning becomes countercyclical for Islamic banks with higher capitalization. This paper therefore casts doubts on the adoption of the E-LLM for Islamic banks to promote countercyclical effects, because the E-LLM may be influenced by managerial discretion, including opportunistic capital management using loan loss provisions that may undermine the importance of maintaining bank capitalization.     

Ex ante loss control by insurers: Public interest for higher profit

This article examines the incentives of an insurer to modify loss distributions prior to the sale of insurance. While actions such as lobbying Congress for mandatory airbags in automobiles are undertaken by insurers for the stated purpose of reducing the aggregate loss in society, they also change the nature of the risk being insured and, hence, affect the profitability of insurance sales. For the case of loss prevention (reducing the probabilty of a loss), insurers do not always have an incentive to invest in loss control. For loss reduction (reducing the severity of any loss that does occur), the incentive is to reduce the size of small losses while simultaneously increasing the size of large losses. Venezian Associates     

The international financial market and US interest rates

This paper examines the linkages between the Eurodollar and US domestic financial markets. It is shown that using weekly data allows the isolation of significant fluctuations being transmitted between markets in both directions. In particular, financial markets in the US are affected significantly by foreign events.It is impossible to reach precise conclusions about the causes of historical variation in the rates. However, this paper provides evidence that at most 40% of the variation in Eurodollar interest rates over the 1975–1978 period can be traced to domestic US sources and that between about one-fifth and two-thirds of the variation in domestic rates can be traced to foreign sources.     

The role of investment banks on the impact of firm performance in mergers and acquisitions: evidence from the Asia-Pacific market

This study uses a comprehensive sample of 5271 bidders during the period of 1995–2011 to examine the role of financial advisors on the outcomes of mergers and acquisitions in the Asia Pacific market. The results indicate that bidders take more time to complete deals when hiring tier-3 advisors. In addition, the empirical evidence indicates that bidders obtain higher announcement returns when hiring low reputation financial advisors. The results are robust when controlling for year effects, country effects and self-selection bias. In addition, the regression analysis also reveals that bidders obtain lower post-announcement returns when hiring tier-1 advisors in domestic deals. Thus, the empirical findings illustrate the importance of the quality of financial advisors on firm performance in mergers and acquisitions in the Asia Pacific market.