经营环境

十六大为中国经济发展设定时间表 十六大报告将经济发展确立为党的工作重点以及《中国共产党章程》的修订为新一届领导集体展开工作提供了明确的指导方向。十六大报告以全面建设小康社会为主题,为中国经济发展设定了一个为期20年的时间表,力争在2020年使中国国内生产总值(GDP)比2000年翻两番。     

经营环境

宏观经济 中国2002年吸引外资创历史纪录 据外经贸部网站公布的数字,外商对华直接投资2002年总计逾520亿美元。因为中国正式成为世界贸易组织成员吸引了创纪录的国际资本。2002年实际外商直接投资总额较前年增长12.51％,至527.4亿美元。合同外商直接投资总额较     

经营环境

新任总理温家宝提出本届政府的目标和施政纲领:第一,实现一个目标,这就是保持经济持续较快增长,同时,不断提高人民的生活水平。第二,抓住两个关键环节:一是经济结构的战略性调整,二是继续扩大对外开放。第三,解决好三个重大的经济问题:第一个问题是就业和社会保障,第二个问题是财政的增收节支,     

经营环境

宏观经济 中国积极应对SARS对经济造成的影响 中国政府表示;为了应对非典型肺炎对经济造成的影响,将为受疫情打击较大的行业提供支持,并寻求新的途径刺激经济增长。5月7日总理温家宝主持召开了国务院常务会议,会议表示,在对抗     

Business groups and the incorporation of firm-specific shocks into stock prices

Firm-specific information has a damped effect on business group-affiliated firms’ stock prices. Such firms’ idiosyncratic stock returns are less responsive to idiosyncratic commodity price shocks than are the idiosyncratic returns of otherwise similar unaffiliated firms in the same country and commodity-sensitive industry. Using global commodity shocks means we assess responses to common idiosyncratic shocks of the same magnitude, frequency, and observability. Further identification follows from difference-in-difference tests exploiting successful and matched exogenously failed control block transactions. We conclude that business group firms’ stock prices provide less firm-specific information to capital providers and managers.     

Corporate tax policy and incorporation in the EU

In Europe, declining corporate tax rates have come along with rising tax-to-GDP ratios. This paper explores to what extent income shifting from the personal to the corporate tax base can explain these diverging developments. We exploit a panel of European data on legal form of business to analyze income shifting via incorporation. The results suggest that the effect is significant and large. It implies that the revenue effects of lower corporate tax rates—possibly induced by tax competition—will partly show up in lower personal tax revenues rather than lower corporate tax revenues. Simulations suggest that between 12% and 21% of corporate tax revenue can be attributed to income shifting. Income shifting is found to have raised the corporate tax-to-GDP ratio by some 0.25% points since the early 1990s. This research was carried out while Ruud de Mooij was a visiting fellow at DG ECFIN in October 2006. The views expressed in this Article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the European Commission.     

Corporate governance and the spinoff decision

Using a sample of 102 spinoffs in the period 1981 to 1997, we investigate the relation between corporate governance and the spinoff decision. Diversified firms conducting a spinoff have characteristics previously hypothesized to be associated with more effective corporate governance, such as greater ownership by outside board members, more heterogeneous boards, and fewer board members, in comparison to a set of peer firms. Post spinoff, relative valuation measures increase a significantly greater extent than for peer firms. These findings are consistent with the view that agency problems are a contributing factor in firms maintaining value destroying diversification strategies.     

Accounting and the environment

Introducing a discussion of some of the ways in which accounting and other calculative mechanisms are involved in environmental matters, the article focuses on a number of questions that emerge from accounting for carbon emission permits and corporate environmental reporting. Both are areas where there is already a need for more research and where that need will increase in the coming years. Identifying some of the interests and pressures that already influence approaches in the area, the case is made for the need for both critical and facilitative research.     

Industry and the environment

Society has now woken up to some of the effects which technology can and does have on the environment. This article analyses how industry should react to this situation, so that managements can formulate more clearly the policies which they ought to adopt for their technology and for the management organisation structure of their companies.     

Managerial compensation and the debt placement decision

Extant research argues that borrowing from financial intermediaries subjects managers to external monitoring. However, given managers' flexibility in choosing the type of debt financing, why would managers submit themselves to external monitoring? Recent theory points to the role of managerial incentive compensation. Specifically, it is argued that managers will borrow from financial intermediaries if their compensation is tied to firm performance. Additionally, it is noted that a more optimal compensation scheme will induce managers to undertake intermediated loans only when the firm is sufficiently profitable. Such a compensation scheme is likely to exist in opaque firm settings where borrowing from financial intermediaries can serve to signal firm profitability. Our study provides corroborative evidence. We find that the choice of syndicated bank loans is positively associated with CEO equity incentives. Second, this syndicated debt-incentive compensation link is influenced by firm profitability, particularly among information problematic firms. Overall, our study points to the role of incentive compensation in the debt placement decision.     

Technological advances and the decision to invest

Technological advances impact a firm’s investment decision, as they affect the investment cost. They can also affect the profitability due to demand shocks. We study a firm’s optimal investment decision when technological advances occur as surprises and induce uncertain reductions in the investment cost and in earnings. Despite this complex setting we derive closed-form solutions for the investment option value and the investment threshold. When technological advances only impact the investment cost, we demonstrate significant contributions compared to existing research, which restricts the analysis by keeping the expected investment cost path constant. For example, we show that, albeit the investment threshold is constant, the option value is very sensitive in the expected impact of technological advances. Leaving the restrictive setting, we obtain more intuitive results, e.g. that more frequent technological advances increase the option value. When technological advances impact future earnings we find important long-term effects: the investment threshold increases, whereas the option value decreases. Finally, earnings volatility postpones investment, while uncertainty due to technological advances expedites investment.     

Momentum investing and the asset allocation decision

This study examines the active asset allocation decisions of Australian multisector fund managers to determine whether active fund managers engage in momentum strategies. We find evidence supporting the existence of momentum investing in active asset allocation strategies. This evidence exists in the Australian Equities, Australian Fixed Interest and Listed Property asset classes. Interestingly, balanced funds adopt contrarian strategies in the International Equities asset class. We also examine whether there is any association between a fund's market timing skill and the execution of momentum strategies. Our results show that fund managers with no market timing skill are momentum investors.     

Company takeovers and the auditor choice decision

There is a growing literature on how companies select their auditors. This literature emphasizes both theoretical development and empirical testing. Anderson, Stokes, and Zimmer (1993) recently identified corporate takeovers as events that generate auditor selection decisions; the acquiring company (the acquirer) has to choose whether to retain the new subsidiary’s (the acquiree) incumbent auditor or switch to its own auditor. To date, this is the only reported study that examines auditor changes following corporate acquisitions. Anderson et al. (1993) speculated that if the business activities of the acquirer and the acquiree are different, then the acquiree’s incumbent auditor is more likely to be retained. They used takeover type (horizontal, vertical, conglomerate) as a proxy for differences in activities. Their empirical results, however, were contrary to these expectations.The purpose of this paper is to test the robustness of Anderson et al.’s findings in a different national setting (Britain instead of Australia). Further, it modifies Anderson et al.’s test procedures by introducing new variables that are also hypothesized to affect auditor choice in acquired companies. The results show that proxies for differences in activities between acquirers and acquirees, namely takeover type and industry, are associated with the retention of the acquiree’s incumbent auditor. The takeover type finding therefore differs from the findings of Anderson et al. (1993).Other factors associated with the decision to retain auditors include audit opinions, contested takeover bids, changes in top management, restructuring and integration of businesses, and relative audit fees. Some of these factors have also been identified in other, non-takeover contexts. Finally, audit switches to Big Eight firms are found to be more likely than switches away from the Big Eight.     

Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision

This paper provides a model for housing prices based on a seller solving the optimal time-on-the market problem. Given the seller’s optimal time-on-the market, analytical expressions are provided for both the expected time-on-the-market and the sales price. These expressions facilitate the computation of comparative statics. Consistent with economic intuition, we show that (i) both the expected time-on-the market and sales price decrease as interest rates increase, (ii) the expected time-on-the market increases and the expected sales price decreases as offer activity declines, and (iii) the expected time-on-the market and expected sales price both increase as the list price increases.     

商业银行商户融资的市场分析及业务建议

商户融资的目标客户群及其融资需求 商户融资目标客户群的基本情况 商户指个体工商户及规模较小的私营企业主,商户融资是指以自然人为授信主体,单户授信金额不超过500万元的私营企业、个体工商户贷款业务, 又称小商户,小业主和小企业贷款.     

Flexible Prices and the Business Cycle

Business cycles models with flexible prices face two major empirical challenges. One regards observed output dynamics: the positive, short run, autocorrelation in GNP growth, and the hump‐shaped, trend‐reverting output response to transitory shocks ( Cogley and Nason 1995 ). The other regards the alleged persistent decline in employment following a positive technology shock ( Galí 1999 ). No determinate model with flexible prices has so far been able to address all of the Cogley Nason–Galí challenges. We show that the standard RBC model can do so if it contains a signal extraction problem involving permanent and temporary supply shocks.     

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

This article examines whether movements in economic factors dictated by the dividend discount model can explain broad movements in stock returns over the business cycle. As anticipated, stock returns decrease throughout economic expansions and become negative during the first half of recessions. Returns are largest during the second half of recessions, suggesting an important role for expected earnings. These results are consistent with the notion that expected stock returns vary inversely with economic conditions, yet suggest that realized returns are especially poor indicators of expected returns prior to turning points in the business cycle.     

Distant futures and the environment

This paper develops guidelines for long-term environmental policy and an environmental ethical framework that addresses the distant future. It is assumed that humans have an obligation to maintain Earth-life into the distant future, even past the time when the Earth will become uninhabitable. To achieve the goal of maintaining Earth-life into the distant future requires intelligence. Presently, it can be argued that only humans possibly possess the intelligence required to achieve this goal. It is further assumed that if humans become extinct, the chances are poor that Earth-life with the requisite intelligence to achieve this goal will emerge through evolution. It is also assumed that a catastrophic die-off of species on this planet will lead to the extinction of the human species. Taking these assumptions together, then, it is argued that it is imperative that catastrophic die-off of species must be prevented. Several environmental threats to such an event are described and suggestions to overcome the threats are presented. It is argued that the central premise and associated policies and actions represent a unique environmental ethical framework. To ground the discussions, the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAMAB) region in the Southeastern United States is used for context, background, and transference of general principles to specific environmental policies.     

做生意与做人--清末民初商界巨子朱葆三的一生

朱佩珍,字葆三,1848年3月11日出生于浙江黄岩.1858年,当身为绿营下级军官的朱葆三的父亲去世时,并没有给妻儿留下什么像样的财产.迫于生计,三年后,14岁的朱葆三辞别相依为命的寡母,从浙江定海的一个乡村出发去上海闯世界.     

农发行应实现政策性与商业性业务的和谐发展

随着国家农业产业政策的不断调整和粮棉改革市场化步伐的加快,农发行政策性业务的范围和比重越来越小,商业性业务的范围和比重不断扩大。外部政策环境的变化,为农发行实现政策性业务和商业性业务的和谐发展提供了可能。