The “probability of a fit choice”

This paper attempts to model elections by incorporating voter judgments about candidate and leader competence. The proposed model can be linked to Madison’s understanding of the nature of the choice of Chief Magistrate (Madison, James Madison: writings. The Library of America, New York, 1999 [1787]) and Condorcet’s work on the so-called “Jury Theorem” (Condorcet 1994 [1785]). Electoral models use the notion of a Nash Equilibrium. This notion generally depends on a fixed point argument. For deterministic electoral models, there will typically be no equilibrium. Instead we introduce the idea of a preference field, $H,$ for the society. A condition called half-openess of $H$ is sufficient to guarantee existence of a local direction gradient, $d,$ Even when $d$ is not well-defined we can use the idea of the heart for the society. This is an attractor of the set of social moves that can occur. As an application, a stochastic model of elections is considered, and applied to the 2008 presidential election in the United States. In such a stochastic model the electoral origin will satisfy the first order condition for a local Nash equilibrium. We then show how to compute the Hessian of each candidate’s vote share function, and obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to the electoral origin, suggesting that there will be a social direction gradient. The origin maximizes aggregrate voter utility and can be interpreted as a fit choice for the polity.     

A model of Russia's “virtual economy”

The Russian Economy has evolved into a hybrid form, a partially monetized quasi-market system that has been called the virtual economy. In the virtual economy, barter and non-monetary transactions play a key role in transferring value from productive activities to the loss-making sectors of the economy. We show how this transfer takes place, and how it can be consistent with the incentives of economic agents. We analyze a simple partial-equilibrium model of the virtual economy, and show how it might prove an obstacle to industrial restructuring and hence marketizing transition.     

Bridging “quality” and “quantity” in the study of criminal action

This article summarises the main findings of a study on the narrative construction of deviant actions which focused both on the contents and the structures of the narrative accounts provided by criminals. The research was conducted by collecting narrative interviews. These involved 34 individuals detained in two penal institutions in Rome. These accounts are typically constructed in a non-investigative context. Their exploration is mainly qualitative, but our aim here concern the quantitative sight of qualitative data and viceversa. The project was focused to find if there are any differences in the narrative accounts provided by different offenders, classified according to the type of crime they committed and their experience in the area of deviance. All interviews were analysed using a qualitative data analysis software and taking the “Evaluation model” as a reference. Participants were divided into three groups according to their criminal experience and into four groups according to the crime they committed. The results show that there are important differences in the way a crime is reconstructed by offenders with different criminal history. The paper also proposes solutions and innovative strategies to deal with quantification and qualitative data.     

On the phenomenology of technology: the “Janus-faces” of mobile phones

This paper argues that technologies perform in Janus faced ways; that is, in ways that are ironic, perverse and paradoxical, and it is argued that these qualities are important to apprehend if we are to more fully understand the role of technology in organizations and in our daily lives.The argument opens with an account of Janus as a metaphorical evocation of irony and paradox, and general examples of Janus faced technologies are given. Prominent philosophies of technology and theoretical approaches to technology are discussed in terms of their capacity to account for generalized examples of irony and paradox. Of these, it is argued that the most satisfactory account is provided by (a) Heidegger’s suggestion that our world is enframed by technology, taken together with (b) a logic of sociotechnical systems based in relational and hybrid ontologies. This sketch of the philosophical landscape occupied by Janus is followed by a interpretation of the specific case of mobile phones, which provides concrete and hopefully vivid examples of the Janus faced performance of technology.The conclusion reached is that the Janus faced metaphor and its philosophical context provides the researcher with the analytic advantages of foregrounding uncertainty, avoiding an essentialist or determinist role for technology, and allowing for the possibility of the presence of tension and contradiction in accounts of sociotechnical outcomes.     

On statistical approaches to the study of the “Law of Initial Values”

This paper is concerned with the well-known Law of Initial Values (Wilder, 1931, 1967). First, possible causes of this phenomenon of initial value dependence are discussed. The limitations of a structural relationships based method for testing its effect in empirical data sets in social and behavioral science research are next discussed. Within the popular structural equation modeling methodology, a multiple-indicator model is then focused on, which allows studying the Law of Initial Values. The described approach is illustrated using data from a cognitive intervention study (Baltes, Dittmann-Kohli & Kliegl, 1986).     

Discussion of “Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys”

This paper discusses the contribution of Lahiri and Monokroussos, published in the current issue of this journal, where they investigate the nowcasting power of ISM Business Surveys for real US GDP. The second part of this note includes some empirical considerations on nowcasting quarterly real GDP by using the monthly PMI index for Switzerland. The results indicate that the Swiss PMI is not leading GDP growth; rather, it is coincident, and its nowcasting power is quite good. The signs of the fitted values mostly correspond to the sign of the actual GDP growth, and the important turning points are identified accurately by the model. This also holds true during the recent crisis.     

Commentary on “The meaning of ‘talent’ in the world of work”

This paper provides a commentary on the article in this Special Issue on “The meaning of ‘talent’ in the world of work”, welcoming its analysis of the definition, meaning and conceptualisation of talent and seeking to develop further its research recommendations. In particular, it argues that the relationships between talent and gifts should be further explored, proposes that exploring its use in other languages than English would be useful, and suggests comparing its identification and development in management and other fields, especially sport and the arts. It also proposes multidisciplinary research and research into talent and talent management in various contexts, including sectorial, cultural, institutional and structural contexts. Finally, it proposes that factors which influence how talent is identified need further analysis, and perspectives from resource-based theories, ethical theories, development economics, and social capital theories should be utilised.     

“Trilemmas”: Characterising the Japanese Concept of “amae” with a Three-Way Forced-Ranking Technique

A ‘trilemma’ procedure is introduced for collecting ‘dominance data’ (i.e. rankings of a set of items along a scale of relevance, preference, etc.). Trilemmas are three-way forced choices where the three items comprising each trilemma are selected on the basis of a multidimensional scaling solution (MDS) for the item set, ensuring that each choice is as stark and informative as possible. A questionnaire designed on this principle is easily understood and rapidly administered. The data are convenient to record and show less fluctuation among informants than existing techniques. We demonstrate the procedure with a set of 45 short generalisations about behaviour, designed for assessing child attachment. A three-dimensional ‘map’ of these items was obtained by applying MDS to multiple sets of similarity data. The same structure emerged from English-language and Japanese translations of the items. Thirty trilemmas based on this map were used to rank the items by degree of association with the Japanese concept of amae, characterising the concept in terms of its behavioural correlates.     

The Impact of Respondent and Interviewer Characteristics on the Number of “No Opinion” Answers

In this article we analyse the number of no opinion answers to attitude items. We argue that that number can be considered as a count variable that should be analysed using Poisson regression or negative binomial regression. Since we're interested in the effect of both respondent and interviewer characteristics on the number of no opinion's we use multilevel analysis that takes into account the hierarchical structure of the data. As a consequence multilevel Poisson regression and multilevel negative binomial regression are applied. Our analysis shows that answering no opinion is related to some sociodemographic respondent characteristics. In addition we find a significant interviewer effect, but we are not able to explain that effect in terms of interviewer variables.     

An analysis of the construct “involvement” in consumer behaviour

The aim of this paper is to analyse the construct involvement. Specifically, the present work extends the sphere of study of the construct involvement at brand level, applying it to Denominations of Origin (D.O.s). Hence, after an overview of the concept, it suggests a cognitive approach to the measurement of involvement. It proposes as indicators the number of values associated with this designation, the centrality of these values and the intensity of the association. In this delimitation of the concept, a model is presented that is set within the framework of an analysis of the decision-making process adopted by consumers when purchasing wine. This postulates that temporary involvement with a D.O. has explanatory power, as does the direct effect of the regular outcomes of a permanent involvement with such a designation on the process in question. In addition, a correlation is proposed between the state of temporary involvement with a D.O. and the continuing consequences of a permanent involvement with this designation.     

Managing work-generated emotions at home: An exploration of the “Bright Side” of emotion regulation

This conceptual paper applies the construct of emotion regulation to the work-family interface in order to further expand our understanding of the positive aspects of emotional labor. Contrary to the predominant view that emotional labor is stressful and produces primarily harmful outcomes, we propose that emotion regulation in work-to-home transitions reduces an individual's work-family conflict, enhances job satisfaction, and improves their spouse's family satisfaction. Indeed, work stress can cause employees to remain preoccupied with work-related thoughts and negative moods when moving from work to family settings. We argue that social display rules positively influence an individual's engagement in emotion regulation to meet family role demands. Drawing on current research on role boundaries, emotion regulation, emotional labor, and work-family conflict, we offer testable propositions to encourage future research on the beneficial aspects of emotion regulation in research on work and family. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in closing.     

The Potential Role of Organizational Setting in Creating “Entitled” Employees: An Investigation of the Antecedents of Equity Sensitivity

Existing research suggests that the equity sensitivity construct has both theoretical significance and applied value. This study investigates the antecedents of equity sensitivity, focusing on the relationships among organizational setting, personal characteristics (age, sex, work experience), organization tenure, and equity sensitivity. Results based on survey data from 613 individuals employed in ten diverse organizations suggest that organizational setting influences equity sensitivity levels among employees, Evidence of a significant relationship between age and equity sensitivity is also found. However, the relationship between organizational tenure and equity sensitivity found in previous studies is not replicated when adequate controls are included. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

“Today’s employers are lookingfor creators of wealth,not just counters of wealth”

Praxis | Artikel

“Today’s employers are lookingfor creators of wealth, not just counters of wealth”     

A re-examination of the “zero is enough” hypothesis in the emergence of financial stylized facts

In recent years, a growing literature has claimed that the market microstructure is sufficient to generate the so-called stylized facts without any reference to the behaviour of market players. Indeed, qualitative stylized-facts can be generated with zero-intelligence traders (ZITs) but we stress that they are without any quantitative predictive power. In this paper we show that in most of the cases, such qualitative stylized facts hide unrealistic price motions at the intraday level and ill-calibrated return processes as well. To generate realistic price motions and return series with adequate quantitative values is out-of-reach using pure ZIT populations. To do so, one must increasingly constrain agents?? choices to a point where it is hard to claim that their behaviour is completely random. In addition we show that even with highly constrained ZIT agents, one cannot reproduce real time series from these. Except in a few cases, first order moments of ZITs never equal real data ones. We therefore claim that stylized facts produced by means of ZIT agents are useless for financial engineering.     

Discussion of the paper “Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics”

The excellent article by David Hendry describes how to nest “theory-driven” and “data-driven” approaches when deciding between alternative models in macroeconomics. The article’s final conclusion is that theory allows the econometrician to select a set of variables, while data allows him/her to select across a wide range of alternatives: lag selection, structural breaks, functional forms, etc. The aim of this discussion is to provide the reader with an illustration of this proposed mixing of theory and data in one of the fields mentioned in the paper, macroeconomic forecasting.     

Some brief notes on the “unfinished business” of qualitative inquiry

The paper argues that there are a variety of implicit issues in qualitative inquiry that need to be addressed if the area is to develop in some normal science sense. This unfinished business is concerned with a deeper investigation of basic terms that are now simply taken for granted, such as theme and pattern. It also includes the need to develop rules which will assist in making and justifying how qualitative interpretations are made from the implicit processes of inference. Specific suggestions are made for accomplishing these issues.     

“Good Cause Beliefs” in an “At-Will World”? A Focused Investigation of Psychological Versus Legal Contracts

This study assesses the psychological contracts of a group of at-will employees and compares their relevant psychological contract beliefs with the terms of the controlling legal employment contract. In addition, we test specific hypotheses regarding the relationship between employers formal job security policy (employment at-will vs. good cause protection, and employee personal characteristics; equity sensitivity, organizational tenure) to 2 focal psychological contract beliefs (the employers obligation to have a good reason to discharge the employee, and the employees reciprocal obligation to have a good reason to leave his/her employer). These issues are investigated using survey data sampled from 15 diverse U.S. organizations, and independently collected information regarding organizations job security policies. The results provide evidence of a widely shared psychological contract belief that, despite explicit at-will policies, U.S. employers are highly obligated to have a good reason to discharge employees. Further, personal characteristics are more strongly related to the focal psychological contract beliefs than employer job security policies. The theoretical contribution of the study and its practical implications are discussed.     

“贯标”加“比价” “物美”且“价廉”

在市场经济中,不断地提高产品质量、降低产品成本是提高企业竞争力的根本途径,但随着企业生产工艺水平的不断提高,生产环节的挖潜空间已日趋有限。而被称为“黑色地带”的采购环节,实在是一座尚未挖掘的“金山”,企业在这座“金山”上稍作文章,就能够扭亏为盈,焕发活力。目前,在这个环节上,成熟的管理经验主要有：推行“ＩＳＯ９０００标准”和推行山东潍坊亚星集团创造的“比价管理”。 ＩＳＯ９０００系列标准是国际标准化组织制订的,适用于世界各企业采用的企业质量管理标准,其４．６“采购”要素中,对企业采购过程作了具体…     

把握“棋局”奋力“拼”“抢”“抓”

<正>一、拼党的十八大提出了全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标,各地竞相进入全面建成小康社会的冲刺阶段,千帆竞发,百舸争流。从表面上看,全国各地比拼的是投资,是项目;但从本质上看,比拼的是思想,是作风。在这种态势下,湖北面临不进则退、慢进亦退、稳则快退的局面。(1)拼思想。湖北要实现跨越式发展,要在激烈竞争中立于不败之地,要成为重要战略支点,不仅要比投资、比项目,更要比拼思想。解放思想是干事、谋事的逻辑起点,是科学发展的第一动力。我省与沿海发达地区的差距,表面