The United States is a Small Country in World Trade*

Despite being the largest country in world trade and thus presumably having high optimal tariffs, the United States has long had low and declining levels of protection. This paradox suggests that the United States is failing to exploit its monopsony power by levying optimal tariffs. Using data on world output and trade flows, we find that the United States is a small country in world trade in that its trade policies have negligible impacts on world prices. In the median manufacturing industry, US tariffs reduce world prices by only 0.12%. United States optimal tariffs are also typically small (3.6% in the median industry) and are lower than existing US tariffs in most industries. It is no puzzle that the United States has been a champion of free trade since the 1930s—the United States, like other small countries, benefits economically from tariff reductions.     

Outmigration of U.S. immigrants

"A methodology is devised for the empirical analysis of the determinants of outmigration of immigrants in a population. Empirical studies in this area have been hindered by a lack of longitudinal data on the characteristics of the immigrants. This problem is tackled by making use of cross-sectional data at two points in time. It is applied to the study of male immigrants in the United States. It is found that education is positively related to the rate of outmigration for immigrants from Canada, Asia and the pooled sample of immigrants. This finding suggests that the cross-sectional estimates of the growth in earnings of immigrants in the United States are underestimated for these groups of immigrants."     

冷战的预兆：蒋介石与开罗会议中的琉球问题——《琉球：战争记忆、社会运动与历史解释》补正

本文根据美国斯坦福大学胡佛研究所所存《蒋介石日记》、美国外交档案和中华民国档案等三种档案资料，详细分析了开罗会议前后中国与美国（以及英国）在琉球及相关问题上的立场。作者以琉球问题以及与之相关的历史关系为中心，透视中、美、英三国的不同的世界秩序观，为理解战后世界秩序的形成提供了一个特殊的视角。     

How to forecast cross-border patent infringement? — The case of U.S. international trade

The International Trade Commission is one venue for enforcement of United States Patents, the other venue being the Federal District Courts. The ITC conducts investigation on unfair methods of competition and unfair acts in the importation under United State Section 337. The majority of ITC investigations are based on the importation of goods that are alleged to infringe a United States patent. This paper seeks to investigate fundamental characteristics of patents investigated by ITC, name as “ITC patent” in this study, from 1976 to 2012 in order to obtain early precaution of possible ITC investigation for newly filed patents. Patents which have been investigated by ITC are defined as ITC patents (1305 patents) and those which have never been investigated by ITC defined as non-ITC patents (4,388,043 patents). Both ITC patents and non-ITC patents are analyzed to understand the differences between the two types of patents in terms of 11 variables. Subsequently, the difference between ITC patents and non-ITC patents in a manner that is statistically different from random distribution will be identified. Furthermore, regression model is used to test whether each of the above variables (the 16 indicators) is related to each other and evaluate the probability of being investigated by ITC.     

Examination of the impacts of the immediate interest rate of the United States and the VIX on the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index

This study examines the effects of the market volatility index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (VIX) and the immediate interest rate of the United States on the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index (DJIMI) using quantile-based techniques and wavelet coherence (WTC) analysis with monthly data for the period January 2010to May 2021. A quantile cointegration model indicated that the relationship between the VIX and the DJIMI can be valid in the long term since the estimated coefficients are negative and statistically significant across the quantiles 0.05 and 0.50, while a quantile autoregressive model revealed that large negative and positive changes in the VIX and the immediate interest rate of the United States do not have a significant impact on the DJIMI in the short term. Allowing the role of regime changes, it was found by the quantile regression model that an increase in the VIX lowers the performance in the DJIMI, supported by the WTC. It was also underlined that the DJIMI may not benefit from the positive financial conditions. According to the quantile regression models, the immediate interest rate of the US has asymmetrical effects, and the stabilizing effect of the increase/decrease is valid during bearish/bullish market conditions in the DJIMI.     

美国自华进口对其经济增长的影响

本文利用协整分析与Granger因果检验方法,对美国自华进口对美国经济增长影响进行了实证研究。研究认为,美国GDP增长与美国自华制成品进口间呈反向长期均衡关系,与自华初级产品进口问则没有这种均衡关系,但美国自华制成品进口不是引致美国GDP下降的原因。美国不应将其经济增长趋缓或下降归咎于中国,中国也应通过扩大进口缓解当前的国内流动性过剩。     

Sir Leslie Melville: an Interview*

This interview with Sir Leslie Melville focuses on his career which began in 1924 when he was appointed Public Actuary of South Australia. He became the Commonwealth Bank's first economist in 1931. In 1944 he led the Australian delegation to the United Nations Monetary and Economic Conference at Bretton Woods and was the Australian Executive Director of the IMF/World Bank in the earty 1950s During the 1960s and 1970s he was chairman of the Tariff Board and of the Commonwealth Grants Commission He was appointed Professor of Economics in the University of Adelaide in 1929 and was Vice-Chancellor of the ANU between 1953 and 1960.     

Exploring the causes of the slowdown in remittances to Mexico

This article explores the slowdown of remittances to Mexico and the role that may have been played by some key variables from the United States economy. The findings show that several measures of United States economic activity and different proxies for the unemployment of Mexican nationals living in the United States do not appear to have a strong impact on remittance transfers. On the other hand, this study finds that United States housing variables do seem to affect remittance transfers. In particular, there is a special prominence of the impact shown by the number of housing starts in the United States. Overall, the results seem to suggest that there is not a single United States economic factor that is responsible for the decrease of remittances to Mexico but rather a combination of factors. Among these factors, the decrease in United States housing activity seems to play a major role.     

FOREIGN TAKEOVERS AND NEW INVESTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This study is unique in several respects. First, it reviews the characteristics of the top 10 industries targeted for foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the United States between 1979 and 1987. It analyzes both overall FDI activity and new plant and expansion FDI activity. The study summarizes and tests alternative hypotheses regarding the determinants of FDI in the United States by all countries, by the United Kingdom, by the European Community, by Japan, and by Canada.
Large and growing product markets in an expanding economy have attracted FDI in the United States. Exchange rate movements have prompted opportunistic decisions to invest in U.S. production facilities. Investors' superior management skills appear to have prompted takeovers, while efforts to realize technological advantages of new physical capital and of relatively large operating plants have fostered plant and expansion investments.
Evidence exists that a desire to circumvent current—but not potential—trade restrictions has motivated foreign direct investment. FDI activities are not associated with concentrated or heavily unionized industries. Highly protected industries have attracted heavier equity FDI by Japan and heavier new plant FDI by all sources and Canada. No evidence exists that FDI in the United States by Japan or anyone else is targeted to undercut union-dominated firms or to arrest the spread of protectionist trade policies.     

Liberalizing U.S. Trade with the Eastern Bloc: What are the consequences?

This paper provides estimates of the trade and welfare consequences of removing the high discriminatory tariffs that the United States imposes against imports from the Soviet Union and its allies. These imports are now taxed at Smoot-Hawley rates. The estimates of the trade effects exceed those of previous studies, in part because the recent “Tokyo Round” of multilateral trade concessions has increased the tariff discrimination against the non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) suppliers. The study is the first to assess the welfare consequences of eliminating this discrimination. It is estimated that the overall annual gain to the United States would be about $1.8 billion and that the annual gain to the communist suppliers would be between $1.2 billion and $1.7 billion.     

FOREIGN TAKEOVERS AND NEW INVESTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This study is unique in several respects. First, it reviews the characteristics of the top 10 industries targeted for foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the United States between 1979 and 1987. It analyzes both overall FDI activity and new plant and expansion FDI activity. The study summarizes and tests alternative hypotheses regarding the determinants of FDI in the United States by all countries, by the United Kingdom, by the European Community, by Japan, and by Canada.
Large and growing product markets in an expanding economy have attracted FDI in the United States. Exchange rate movements have prompted opportunistic decisions to invest in U.S. production facilities. Investors' superior management skills appear to have prompted takeovers, while efforts to realize technological advantages of new physical capital and of relatively large operating plants have fostered plant and expansion investments.
Evidence exists that a desire to circumvent current—but not potential—trade restrictions has motivated foreign direct investment. FDI activities are not associated with concentrated or heavily unionized industries. Highly protected industries have attracted heavier equity FDI by Japan and heavier new plant FDI by all sources and Canada. No evidence exists that FDI in the United States by Japan or anyone else is targeted to undercut union-dominated firms or to arrest the spread of protectionist trade policies.     

Punitive Entanglements: The “War on Gangs” and the Making of a Transnational Penal Apparatus in the Americas

This paper analyses the export-import business of penal policies that accompanies the “war on transnational street gangs” between the United States and Central America. It argues that far from being a unidirectional export of punitive politics from the United States towards Central America, many of these punitive exports travel “back home”. This creates transnational punitive entanglements that contribute to the contingent convergence of punitive geopolitics and domestic politics in the guise of a transnational penal apparatus that integrates law enforcement agencies and military forces, securocratic epistemic communities and national political entrepreneurs into a functionally cohesive but decentred transnational security structure engaged in a multilayered punitive containment of transnational street gangs across the Americas.     

美联储金融监管体制、影响及其启示

长期以来,美联储从本国利益出发制定经济监管政策,在美国和世界经济体系中创造了过量的信用,导致美元在全世界泛滥,美国人放弃储蓄,过度投资和消费;美国主体经济从制造业转向了非出口服务业;美国的债务,不管是从国家角度还是从个人角度都达到了前所未有的高度,这一切最终演变成了这次全球金融危机.对于中国这样的经济大国,一定要从中吸取教训,扬长避短,并建立科学发展的核心价值观.     

THE NONPROFIT SECTOR OF THE U.S. ECONOMY: A METHODOLOGICAL STATEMENT

United States input-output accounts identify and measure the interrelationships between the various industries in the United States economy. However, these accounts do not identify nonprofit activities from their for-profit counterparts in the service-producing sector. This paper, prepared by Gabriel Rudney and Paula Young, presents the methodology and summary data produced by disaggregating the service-producing industries to identify separately nonprofit activities.
The input-output accounts for 1977 produced in this study include 107 industries, but in this paper the results are summarized into 14 industries showing only nonprofit and for-profit components. The GNP and total outputs in this study are consistent with the revised input-output accounts for 1977 prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.     

The macrodynamics of international migration as a socio-cultural diffusion process. Part B: applications

"This study formulates a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push-pull forces that propel it. The model's architecture rests on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination and potential emigrants at the origin....Two specific paradigms of diverse nature serve to demonstrate the model's tenets and pertinence, one being Greek emigration to the United States since 1820, and the other total out-migration from Cyprus since statehood (1946)."     

THE LOOMING U.S. EXTERNAL DEBT: HOW SERIOUS IS IT?

This article examines the state of U.S. external debt accumulation, especially the rising burden of interest payments. It points out that the favorable yield differential between U.S. external assets and liabilities may be declining at the same time the United States has become the world's largest international debtor. The favorable yield differential has enabled the United States, which became a net debtor in 1987, to avoid making net interest payments on its international debt until 1994. However, servicing the increasing U.S. net international debt is likely to be a much greater burden in the future as the favorable yield gap wanes while net debt continues to grow.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE 1996 U.S.‐CANADA SOFTWOOD LUMBER AGREEMENT ON THE INDUSTRIAL USERS OF LUMBER: AN EVENT STUDY

In this article, we analyze whether the Softwood Lumber Agreement between the United States and Canada imposed significant economic costs on industries that use softwood lumber in the United States. To ascertain this impact, we use an event study. Our event study analyzes variations in the stock prices of lumber‐using firms listed at the major stock markets in the United States. We find that the news of events leading to the Softwood Lumber Agreement had significant negative impacts on the stock prices of industries using softwood lumber. The average reduction of stock prices for our sample of firms was approximately 5.42% over all the events considered. (JEL F13, F23)     

The economic consequences of substituting carbon payments for crop subsidies in U.S. agriculture

There is a growing body of literature on the costs of sequestering carbon. However, no studies have examined the interplay between farm commodity programs and carbon sequestration programs. This study investigates two dimensions of the interaction between farm commodity programs and afforestation programs, using a price-endogenous sector model of agriculture in the United States. First, this study compares the fiscal and welfare costs of achieving specific carbon targets through afforestation, with and without current farm programs. Second, it examines the welfare, fiscal, and carbon consequences of replacing existing farm subsidies, wholly or in part, with payments for carbon. Two approaches, Hicksian and Marshallian, are investigated. In the first, the sector model is used to quantify the carbon consequences and fiscal costs associated with various combinations of farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that leave consumers and producers in the U.S. agricultural sector no worse off than under existing farm programs. The second approach focuses on the carbon and welfare consequences of various farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that hold total program fiscal costs constant at current levels. Althouth the methodology and data are applied to the United States, the issues addressed are common in a number of developed nations, particularly within the European Union (EU). Adapting existing sector models in these nations to perform similar analyses would provide policy makers with more precise information about the nature of the trade-offs involved with second-best policies for replacing farm commodity subsidies with tree planting subsidies.The research reported in this paper was partially funded by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under contract number 68W90077. It does not reflect the official position of that agency. Mention of trade names does not constitute endorsement.     

A comparison of the spatial distribution of innovative activities in China and the U.S.

In order to enhance the independent innovation capability and help China to become an “innovation-oriented country” this article compares the spatial distribution of innovative activities between China (representing a typical developing country) and the United States. We also provide some recommendations for China and other developing countries to optimize the spatial distribution of their innovative activities. Using invention patents as an indicator gathered from the websites of the CSIPO and the USPTO, this paper compares the spatial distribution of innovative activity in China and the U.S. by methods such as rank-frequency, concentration and classification. The results show that the invention patents have experienced rapid growth and significant fluctuation in recent years in China, while the United States has been relatively stable. The spatial diversity of patent distribution in China is more obvious than in the United States. There is a concentrated trend of innovative activities in both China and the United States from the inland areas to the coastal regions.     

The structural transformation and aggregate productivity in Portugal

We document the substantial process of structural transformation—the reallocation of labor between agriculture, manufacturing, and services—and aggregate productivity growth undergone by Portugal between 1956 and 1995. We assess the quantitative role of sectoral labor productivity in accounting for these processes. We calibrate a model of the structural transformation to data for the United States and use the model to gain insight into the factors driving the structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth in Portugal. The model implies that Portugal features low and roughly constant relative productivity in agriculture and services (around 22%) and a modest but growing relative productivity in manufacturing (from 44 to 110%). We find that productivity growth in manufacturing accounts for most of the reduction of the aggregate productivity gap with the United States and that a further closing of this gap can only be accomplished via improvements in the relative productivity of services. This paper was written while the authors were affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. We would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Third Conference on Portuguese Economic Development in the European Context organized by the Bank of Portugal for their comments. All errors are our own.