Border Enforcement and Selection of Mexican Immigrants in the United States

Abstract

Since 1986, the United States has made considerable efforts to curb undocumented immigration across the US–Mexico border, resulting in an increase in migration costs for undocumented immigrants from Mexico and placing a particularly heavy burden on undocumented immigrant women. Using data from the 1990, 2000 Decennial Census and the 2006–8 American Community Survey, this study finds three effects of rising migration costs for immigrants from Mexico: (1) A decrease in the relative flow of older and highly educated undocumented immigrant women relative to men; (2) An increase in the skill composition of immigrant women relative to men; and (3) An increase, due to stronger positive selection, in the average earnings of those groups most affected by increased migration costs, particularly women. This research has important implications in light of the barriers and increasing dangers that women across the globe may face when migrating.     

CROSSING THE BORDER AND MIGRATION DURATION

Policies to deter illegal entry and reduce the number of undocumented immigrants have a complex impact on migration patterns, border crossings, and duration. However, studies generally assume the method of crossing into the United States is exogenous with respect to migration duration. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, this paper finds that the migrant's decision to hire a coyote (smuggler) to cross the border is endogenous with respect to duration. Instrumental variable estimates provide evidence that migrants who incur the cost of hiring a coyote have longer migration durations as they need to work longer in the United States. The migrants most likely to hire coyotes have less education, little migration experience, and/or come from rural communities. Results suggest that continuing to increase guest worker programs could actually decrease the number of Mexican immigrants in the United States by eliminating the need for coyotes which would reduce migration durations. This would better utilize the immigrant population in the United States by encouraging immigrants to stay while employed and to migrate home when unemployed, with the knowledge they can later return. Reducing coyote use would also reduce income flowing to Mexican cartels which have profited from human smuggling. (JEL O15, J61, J64)     

The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach

In an attempt to control the flow of undocumented immigrants, successive U.S. governments have considered large scale deportation, amnesties, expanding visa programs, and fining firms who hire undocumented workers. Using a comparative static model, Aguiar and Walmsley (2013), find that amnesties have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. However, such policies are one-time changes in the labor force, whose benefits diminish over time, and which are unlikely to stop the flow of undocumented workers or fulfill the demands of U.S. firms for cheap foreign labor. In this paper, we use a global dynamic model to investigate the long run implications of three policy scenarios: 1) a one-time amnesty for undocumented workers living in the U.S.; 2) a permanent increase in the number of foreign worker visas; and 3) enhanced border security. We find that an amnesty is much less effective than a permanent increase in the number of visas at promoting economic growth in the U.S., while enhanced border control by the U.S. has a small negative effect due to the relative size of the undocumented labor market in the U.S. Combined, the three policies offer a mechanism for supporting U.S. short- and long-term economic growth, while also benefiting suppliers of migrant workers, such as Mexico.     

Homesickness and repeated migration

This paper presents a dynamic structural model of migration that is designed to help explain the migration behaviour of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the US. Its key feature – which I call ‘homesickness’ – is a duration-dependent disutility from living abroad that keeps increasing while a migrant stays abroad and can be reset to zero only by returning to their home country. I estimate the model using data primarily from the Mexican Migration Project Survey and find that the model is capable of explaining, among other things, the fact that: (i) a non-negligible number of Mexican immigrants in the US return home after earning very little; (ii) these ‘unsuccessful’ immigrants are more likely to re-enter the US at a later date; and (iii) such ‘unsuccessful’ returns are more prevalent among immigrants who left their wives behind in Mexico. These facts are not easily reconciled with existing models of migration that do not feature homesickness.     

The short-term and long-term deterrence effects of INS border and interior enforcement on undocumented immigration

This paper analyzes the short-term and long-term deterrence effects of INS border and interior enforcement. Utilizing FY1983–FY1997 border and interior apprehensions and patrol hours data from the INS, we estimate a four-variable VAR model and find that Border Patrol enforcement has significant short-term deterrence effects. These effects are short-lived as undocumented migrants seemingly adjust to new information. Moreover, the non-existent long-term effects are apparently the consequence of basic economic fundamentals: our analysis employing microdata from both Mexico and the US suggests that the wage gap between Mexico and the US is sufficiently large to maintain the illegal migratory flow.     

Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: Differences between immigrants and natives

In this paper, we analyse differences in the cyclical pattern of employment and wages of immigrants and natives for two large immigrant receiving countries, Germany and the UK. We show that, despite large differences in their immigrant populations, there are similar and significant differences in cyclical responses between immigrants and natives in both countries, even conditional on education, age, and location. We decompose changes in outcomes into a secular trend and a business cycle component. We find significantly larger unemployment responses to economic shocks for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers and for immigrants relative to natives within the same skill group. There is little evidence for differential wage responses to economic shocks. We offer three explanations for these findings: an equilibrium search model, where immigrants experience higher job separation rates, a model of dual labour markets, and differences in the complementarity of immigrants and natives to capital.     

Is the new immigration less skilled than the old?

This paper analyzes trends in the skills of immigrants to the US in the post-World War II period. Changes in the supply, demand, and institutional factors determining immigration are analyzed for their implications for immigrant skills. During the past 4 decades immigration has shifted from being predominantly European and Canadian in origin to being predominantly Asian and Latin American, and there have been changes in the criteria for rationing immigration visas. Immigrant skills can be analyzed within the context of a model of the supply of immigrants and the US demand for immigrants. Of the Asian immigrants subject to numerical limitation, the proportion who were occupational preference principals declined from 18.2% in 1970, to 11.9% in 1975, to 8.1% in 1981. A growing stock of the foreign-born population who are illegal aliens may lower immigrant quality; for low-skilled workers in neighboring low-income countries the economic incentives for illegal migration are very large. Immigrants from the UK have the highest annual earnings, with Canadian, other European, South Asian, East Asian, and other American immigrants having successively lower earnings. The Mexicans and the Vietnamese have the lowest earnings. Over the period 1950 to 1980, US immigration changed from primarily drawing immigrants from countries whose nationals have high relative earnings in the US primarily drawing immigrants from countries whose nationals do less well. Recent immigrants are less favorably selected on the basis of their level of schooling. The analysis of the relative earnings of immigrants during the 1970s using 3 data files shows there has been little change for white immigrants, an ambiguous pattern for Mexican immgrants, perhaps a small decline for Cuban immigrants, and a small rise for Asian immigrants. Overall, without returning to rationing by country of origin, public policy could raise immigrant skill levels by changing the balance between kinship and the individual's skills in the rationing of visas.     

Not just a work permit: EU citizenship and the consumption behaviour of documented and undocumented immigrants

This paper explores the impact of the 2007 European Union enlargement on the consumption behaviour of immigrant households. Using data from a unique Italian survey and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the enlargement induced a significant consumption increase for the immigrant households from new member states both in the short and in the medium run. This enlargement effect cannot be attributed to the mere legalization as it concerns both undocumented and documented immigrants, albeit through different channels. Detailed information on immigrants’ legal status (undocumented/documented) and sector of employment (informal/formal) allows us to shed light on the exact mechanisms. Following the enlargement, previously undocumented immigrants experienced an increase in the labour income by moving from the informal towards the formal economy, whereas immigrants who were already working legally in Italy benefited from the increased probability of getting a permanent contract. Enhanced employment stability in turn reduced the uncertainty about future labour income leading to an increase in documented immigrants’ consumption expenditure.     

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN NATIVE PREFERENCES TOWARD UNDOCUMENTED AND LEGAL IMMIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM SAN DIEGO

The literature has noted that native views about legal as opposed to undocumented immigration in the United States differ. Furthermore, native views about immigration are known to vary by gender. Yet, most surveys do not inquire native men and women about their views with regards to the two distinct immigrant groups, thus impeding an analysis of differences in preferences toward legal and undocumented immigrants from the same sample of natives. Using a recent San Diego County survey, we examine differences in native male and female opinions with regard to legal and undocumented immigration and their determinants. Native preferences toward immigration appear to significantly differ by gender as well as according to immigrants' legal status. In addition, public finance and welfare concerns are among the key factors driving native male and female preferences toward legal and undocumented immigration. However, native women's attitudes are also impacted by concerns regarding the social integration and economic assimilation of undocumented immigrants possibly related to the alleged prejudice factor. (JEL J61, F22)     

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF LABOR MARKET AND DETERRENCE VARIABLES ON CRIME RATES IN MEXICO

Many studies examine the relationship between crime rates and various economic and/or sociodemographic variables in high income countries, but similar efforts for middle and low income countries are less common. Utilizing an 8‐year panel data sample for all 32 states in Mexico, this study assesses the impact of Mexican labor market and deterrence variables on various Mexican crime rates. The principal results indicate that: (1) State gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has ambiguous effect on crime rates under different conditions. Both wages and unemployment rates are negatively linked with crime rates. (2) Although the Mexican judicial and public security systems are widely believed to be ineffective, increased federal police forces and incarceration rates are associated with lower crime rates, but higher public security expenditure per capita is associated with higher crime rates. (3) The impacts from labor market and deterrence variables presented in (1) and (2) continue to hold under the Fox administration as well as for non‐border states. Their respective impacts diminish, however, under the Calderon administration as well as for border states because of the small number of observations. Overall, the results indicate that increasing average wages, federal police forces, and incarceration rates would have significant impacts on reducing crime rates in Mexican states. (JEL O54, K42)     

The changing skill of new immigrants to the United States: recent trends and their determinants

"The objective of this paper is to describe and understand the determinants of changes in the number and quality of new legal immigrants to the United States over the last 25 years. Our main interest is in understanding the behavioral response of potential immigrants to changes in the U.S. immigration law regime (as well as in the origin-country determinants of demand for immigration to the United States) and how these affect and have affected the skill composition of immigrants.... [The authors] assembled a new data set based on annual INS records of all new, legal immigrants over the period 1972 through 1995.... Inspection of our new data indicates that since the mid 1980s the average skill of new, U.S. legal immigrants has been rising relative to that of the U.S. population. An econometric analysis of a panel of country-specific measures of the skill of immigrants based on these data over the period 1972-1992 indicates that these changes are due in part to changes in immigration law and to the overall rise in the real purchasing power of countries outside the United States."     

Anti-immigrant sentiment and the process of settlement among Mexican immigrants to the United States: Reflections on the current wave of Mexican immigrant bashing

After reviewing literature which correlates economic crises with immigrant scapegoating and shows the former functionality of Mexican undocumented immigrants for U.S. capitalism, I argue that the anti-immigrant sentiments arising globally today have a new dimension that is closely related to the restructuring of the world system as well as to the qualitatively different character of immigration. Immigrant bashing is partially a reaction to the “deterritorialization” and increasing delegitimization of the nation-state as a viable “encapsulating” entity. Such deterritorialization represents a qualitative change in immigration patterns: immi-grants from underdeveloped to core capitalist countries have progressively formed “daughter communities” and become settlers instead of temporary, circular migrants, thus becoming economically less functional for U.S. capital. At the same time, their cause has been taken up by Mexican-American political groups, making them increasingly dysfunctional in political terms.     

A PATHWAY TO HOMEOWNERSHIP? EVIDENCE FROM THE IMMIGRATION REFORM AND CONTROL ACT OF 1986

The impact of legal status on economic outcomes has been well documented in the literature with most research focused on labor market outcomes such as wages and occupational mobility. In this paper, I utilize the exogenous variation created the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 to estimate the effect of amnesty polices on homeownership among undocumented immigrants. Using a regression discontinuity framework, the results suggest that the IRCA increased homeownership rates of eligible immigrants by around 4 percentage points relative to ineligible immigrants. Moreover, an extension to the main analysis suggests that immigrants ineligible for the IRCA adjusted their household formation by increasing the rates of coresidency. (JEL J61, R23, R31)     

Reshaping the schooling system: The role of immigration

This paper studies how the schooling system may be impacted by the number and skill type of immigrants. When the number of low-skilled immigrants is large, the education regime tends to become segregated. Wealthy locals are more likely to choose private schools and vote for a lower tax rate to finance public education. In contrast, high-skilled immigrants tend to reinforce the public system. The optimal immigration policy is highly skill-biased. The admission of high-skilled immigrants expedites redistribution toward the less-skilled local households through both a stronger fiscal support for public education and a reduction in the skill wage premium.     

From engineer to taxi driver? Language proficiency and the occupational skills of immigrants

We examine the ability of immigrants to transfer the occupational human capital they acquired prior to immigration. We first augment a model of occupational choice to study the implications of language proficiency on the cross‐border transferability of occupational human capital. We then explore the empirical predictions using information about the skill requirements from O^*NET and a unique dataset that includes both the last source country occupation and the first four years of occupations in Canada. We supplement the analysis using Census estimates for the same cohort with source country occupational skill requirements predicted using detailed human capital related information such as field of study. We find that male immigrants to Canada were employed in source country occupations that typically require high levels of cognitive skills, but rely less intently on manual skills. Following immigration, they find initial employment in occupations that require the opposite. Consistent with the hypothesized asymmetric role of language in the transferability of previously acquired cognitive and manual skills, these discrepancies are larger among immigrants with limited language fluency.     

Brain waste? Educated immigrants in the US labor market

This paper investigates the occupational placement of immigrants in the US labor market using census data. We find striking differences among highly educated immigrants from different countries, even after we control for individuals' age, experience and level of education. With some exceptions, educated immigrants from Latin American and Eastern European countries are more likely to end up in unskilled jobs than immigrants from Asia and industrial countries. A large part of the variation can be explained by attributes of the country of origin that influence the quality of human capital, such as expenditure on tertiary education and the use of English as a medium of instruction. These findings suggest that “underplaced” migrants suffer primarily from low (or poorly transferable) skills rather than skill underutilization. The selection effects of US immigration policy also play an important role in explaining cross-country variation. The observed under-placement of educated migrants might be alleviated if home and host countries cooperate by sharing information on labor market conditions and work toward the recognition of qualifications.     

Brain waste? Educated immigrants in the US labor market

This paper investigates the occupational placement of immigrants in the US labor market using census data. We find striking differences among highly educated immigrants from different countries, even after we control for individuals' age, experience and level of education. With some exceptions, educated immigrants from Latin American and Eastern European countries are more likely to end up in unskilled jobs than immigrants from Asia and industrial countries. A large part of the variation can be explained by attributes of the country of origin that influence the quality of human capital, such as expenditure on tertiary education and the use of English as a medium of instruction. These findings suggest that “underplaced” migrants suffer primarily from low (or poorly transferable) skills rather than skill underutilization. The selection effects of US immigration policy also play an important role in explaining cross-country variation. The observed under-placement of educated migrants might be alleviated if home and host countries cooperate by sharing information on labor market conditions and work toward the recognition of qualifications.     

Political economy, sectoral shocks, and border enforcement

In this paper, we examine the correlation between sectoral shocks and border enforcement in the United States, the U.S. government's main policy instrument for combating illegal immigration. We see whether border enforcement falls following positive shocks to sectors that are intensive in the use of undocumented labour, as would be consistent with political economy models of illegal immigration. We find that border enforcement is negatively correlated with lagged relative price changes in the apparel, fruits and vegetables, and livestock industries and with housing starts in western United States, suggesting that authorities relax border enforcement when demand forundocumented labour is high.
Economie politique, chocs sectoriels et vigilance aux frontières. Dans ce mémoire, les auteurs examinent la corrélation entre les chocs sectoriels et la vigilance aux frontières aux Etats-Unis. La vigilance aux frontières est le principal instrument de politique publique utilisé par le gouvernement américain pour combattre l'immigration illégale. On se demande si la vigilance aux frontières se relâche à la suite de chocs positifs dans des secteurs qui utilisent relativement plus de travailleurs illégaux, ainsi que le suggèrent les modèles d'économie politique de l'immigration illégale. Les principaux résultats indiquent que la vigilance aux frontières est co-reliée négativement (avec un délai) avec les changements de prix relatifs dans les secteurs du vêtement, des fruits et légumes, et du bétail, ainsi qu'avec le nombre de mises en chantier dans la construction domiciliaire dans l'ouest des Etats-Unis. Voilà qui suggère que les autorités relâchent la vigilance aux frontières quand la demande de travailleurs illégaux augmente.     

The Unexpected Effects of Criminal Violence along the Mexico-Texas Border

The violence and insecurity that Mexico suffered during former President Calderon’s war on the Mexican drug cartels have come at a grave economic cost to many cities. The criminal violence had an impact on interdependent borderlands, which are geographic areas that have a symbiotic link between cities and communities of adjoining territories. Mexican business people and consumers that live in cities along the shared border with the United States have the ability to shift their economic transactions away from their insecure environments and to US border communities. In addition, US residents that would normally travel south for economic transactions would decide to avoid violent areas and therefore conduct business on the northern side. This research demonstrates that increased violence in Mexico produced a positive economic effect on the US side of the Mexico–Texas interdependent borderlands. Specifically, our time series analysis (2002–2014) shows that increased homicides, kidnappings and extortions in adjacent Mexican cities are strongly associated with higher gross total sales in the Texas communities while controlling for economic and demographic factors. We also found that the increases in the three crime categories were not associated with the arts, entertainment and recreation sector, nor the accommodation and food services sector performance. However, there was a positive relationship with the retail sales sector.     

IMMIGRANT EARNINGS: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS

This paper uses the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia to analyze the determinants of the level and growth in earnings of adult male immigrants in their first 3.5 years in Australia. The theoretical framework is based on the immigrant adjustment model, which incorporates both the transferability of immigrant skills and selectively in migration. The cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses generate similar findings. The level and relative growth of earnings are higher for immigrants with higher levels of skill and who are economic/skills tested migrants, as distinct from family based and refugee migrants. The analysis indicates that immigrant economic assimilation does occur and that in these data the cross-section provides a good estimate of the longitudinal progress of immigrants. The findings are robust across statistical techniques.