Optimal Dutch disease

Growth models of the Dutch disease explain why resource abundance may reduce growth. The literature, however, also raises a new question: if the use of resource wealth hurts productivity growth, how should such wealth be optimally managed? This question forms the topic of the present paper. We show that the assumptions in the previous literature imply that the optimal share of national wealth consumed in each period needs to be adjusted down. Some Dutch disease, however, is always optimal. Thus, lower growth in resource-abundant countries may not be a problem in itself, but may be part of an optimal growth path. The optimal spending path of the resource wealth may be increasing or decreasing over time. What might be contrary to intuition is that the bigger is the growth generating traded sector, the more of the resource income should be spent in early periods.     

Beyond Dutch disease

How does the deterioration of rule of law in Russia in recent years affect its ability to move away from an export pattern dominated by natural resources? We investigate this question using three datasets for Russia's bilateral trade relations for goods, services and investment at disaggregated level with its partner countries over the world. Our empirical analysis shows that the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia since 2003 has affected the long‐run trade performance of Russia in sophisticated and technology‐intensive manufactured goods, as well as its inward investments with advanced economies. It is precisely this type of trade that Russia should nurture to diversify away from hydrocarbons export dependence. Our statistical analysis also shows that Russia remains to a large extent an outlier within the multilateral trading system. It exports disproportionately less to partner countries which are or had become members of the WTO over our period of analysis. Russia's trade appears to have been negatively affected by the accession of these countries to the WTO. Russia itself finally acceded to the WTO in July 2012 amidst signs of a modest improvement of its rule‐of‐law indicators.     

A fiscal vaccine against the Dutch disease

The Dutch disease is a concern when a country is blessed with positive terms of trade (ToT) shocks. This article assesses the effects of a structural balance fiscal rule – which saves part of the revenues from better ToT – in limiting the real exchange rate (RER) appreciation. We find that the elasticity of the RER to ToT has declined (or is zero) in Chile and Norway, during the years in which the fiscal rule has been in place, although only for the part of ToT that accrue to government revenues.     

Dutch disease and the oil boom and bust

This paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non‐oil economic activity in oil‐dependent countries. During the boom, manufacturing exports and output increased significantly relative to non‐oil countries. These measures decreased gradually during the bust and subsequent period of low prices, displaying a positive relationship with oil prices. However, exports of agricultural products sharply decreased during the boom. Imports of all types of goods displayed strong pro‐cyclicality with respect to oil prices. The results suggest that increased local demand and investment spillovers from the windfall resulted in increased manufacturing activity.     

Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth

We examine the effects of aid on the growth of manufacturing, using a methodology that exploits the variation within countries and across manufacturing sectors, and corrects for possible reverse causality. We find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country's competitiveness, as reflected in the lower relative growth rate of exportable industries. We provide some evidence suggesting that the channel for these effects is the real exchange rate appreciation caused by aid inflows. We conjecture that this may explain, in part, why it is hard to find robust evidence that foreign aid helps countries grow.     

Remittances and the Dutch disease: evidence from Georgia

In this article, using the VECM model we attempt to empirically examine the Dutch disease effect of remittances in Georgia. The analyses are based on quarterly data covering the years 2000–2016. It is found that an inflow of remittances leads to an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate in the long run, whereas it has the reverse effect in the short run.     

The Dutch disease revisited: absorption constraint and learning by doing

This paper revisits the Dutch disease by analyzing the general equilibrium effects of a resource shock on a dependent economy, both in a static and dynamic setting. The novel aspect of this study is to incorporate in one coherent framework two distinct features of the Dutch disease literature that have previously been analyzed in isolation: capital accumulation with absorption constraint, and productivity growth induced by learning-by-doing. The result of long run exchange rate appreciation is maintained in line with part of the Dutch Disease literature. In addition, a permanent change in the employment shares occurs after the resource windfall, in favor of the non-traded sector and away from the traded sector growth engine of the economy. In other words, in the long run both of the classic symptoms of the Dutch Disease remain in place.     

Royal Dutch/Shell

Climate change will affect security of individuals and populations as well as the security of states. The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts. I argue that climate security has been framed in public and policy debate over climate change such that climate change impacts are a threat to nation states in terms of their interests, their economies and their borders. This framing crowds out, subverts and constrains framing in terms of human-well being. I suggest that human security provides a broader and more encompassing notion of climate security than that focussed on security of states. Here, climate security focuses on the idea of freedom from harm and fear of individuals and communities and the capability to adapt to any imposed harm. From that human security perspective, the central analytical issues become those of vulnerability, adaptation and justice.     

Currency diversification and export competitiveness: A model of the ‘Dutch disease’ in Egypt

The paper presents a dynamic portfolio model under currency inconvertibility which rationalizes the recent Egyptian experience of real exchange rate appreciation and currency diversification following the increase in oil exports and the partial financial liberalization that took place after 1976. The two shocks are linked because the relative price of manufacturing exports in terms of oil is also the premium of the ‘gray’ market rate over the official exchange rate. The effects of various official exchange rate policies on the temporary equilibrium values of the premium and the real wage and on the steady-state values of asset stocks are examined. A review of the Egyptian experience in light of the model results suggests that the unification of 1979 was ineffective against this variant of the ‘Dutch disease’ but that the restoration in 1981 of a parallel rate closer to the ‘gray’ market rate applicable to competitive exports may be more effective.     

An optimal slow Dutch auction

We study slow Dutch auctions, where the clock does not fall instantaneously, but instead falls over time. Buyers are assumed less patient than the seller. In a symmetric setting, we investigate the properties of the optimal revenue-maximizing clock. We find that the clock is genuinely dynamic and the auction involves delays.     

Financial Openness and the Dutch Disease

This paper studies the relationship between the degree of financial openness and Dutch disease effects of capital inflows in developing countries. The results reveal that an increase in financial openness leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. In particular, the study shows that an increase in inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) results in an appreciation of the real exchange rate in more financially open countries only. The results also suggest that there is a trade‐off between the resource movement effect and the spending effect in more financially open economies following an increase in FDI inflows, such that the more the tradable sector expands relative to the nontradable sector, the greater is the real exchange rate appreciation.     

Optimal choice of prevention and cure under uncertainty on disease effect and cure effectiveness

This paper studies optimal prevention and cure when an agent copes with two different sources of uncertainty: uncertainty on disease effect and uncertainty on cure effectiveness. We first analyze how optimal choices are affected by uncertainty when prevention and cure do not interact. Under both types of uncertainty, we obtain that the optimal level of prevention rises. Furthermore, we characterize for each source of uncertainty the conditions for the optimal level of cure to increase. We show that these conditions are related to different measures of prudence in health and cross-prudence in wealth. Lastly, we generalize our results to the case where prevention and cure interact and characterize for each source of uncertainty the conditions for the optimal level of prevention and cure to jointly increase. These conditions are similar to those obtained in the case without uncertainty but, in this context, Edgeworth–Pareto complementarity is also required.     

资源诅咒传导机制之“荷兰病”——理论模型与实证研究

荷兰病指一个国家或地区的资源产业突然繁荣往往会通过要素、产品和货币市场的一系列反应挤出当地制造业,使之逐渐衰退,或者难以起步,它是典型的资源诅咒传导机制之一。本文首先简单介绍了荷兰病产生的原因和危害,然后借助模型分析详细解释其背后的原理,继而通过实证和案例分析说明在我国,荷兰病具有相当的普遍性,并且不同于荷兰、挪威等发达国家,我国荷兰病的主要症结在于挤出制造业固定资产投资,而非提高劳动力雇佣成本。最后,以现实为基础提出如何改变我国资源富集地区产业单一化和初级化的政策建议,目的在于充分发挥这些地区的资源优势,缩小东西部差距。     

Emigrants' remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde

Abstract

Emigrants' remittances have increased rapidly over the past two decades. While earlier studies have focused on their microeconomic effect on incomes and poverty in recipient countries, the present study concentrates on the macroeconomic impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in Cape Verde. A main conclusion is that remittances give rise to a sort of Dutch Disease effect and thereby have an adverse effect on the competitiveness of the tradable sector. The magnitude of this effect in Cape Verde is not that large, however. The changing orientation of official aid to more growth-oriented aid, combined with a more export-oriented domestic policy, has contributed to limiting the adverse impact of emigrants' remittances on the competitiveness of the Cape Verdean economy.     

The Dutch and Portuguese-Jewish background of David Ricardo

This article deals with the Dutch and Portuguese-Jewish background of David Ricardo. The important pieces of information, found in the Amsterdam municipal archives, on the one hand correct, and on the other complement, the data presented by P. Sraffa. Recently, new evidence has been found on Ricardo's stay in Amsterdam in the years 1783?–?85. This evidence throws new light on Ricardo's relationship with his uncle Moses in Amsterdam. It is shown that his formal education was poor, but that his informal education may have been rich. The question of whether Ricardo visited the famous Talmud Tora in Amsterdam is settled in the negative.     

Optimal annexation

Previous empirical studies of the effects of annexation on municipal expenditures and municipal efficiency have yielded mixed results. Here it is argued that as municipalities grow through annexation, there may be administrative and service delivery efficiencies that, at least for a time, more than offset the inefficiencies of a heightened degree of monopoly power in the provision of infrastructure and services. If this is the case, then the rates of growth of both per capita taxes and per capita spending will decrease with annexation. Eventually, though, administrative and service inefficiencies are likely to develop as the city's geographic area and population base increase, and monopoly inefficiencies are likely to worsen. If this is the case, then the rates of growth of both per capita taxes and per capita spending will increase with annexation. Thus, there may be some level of annexation activity at which the growth of per capita taxes and the growth of per capita spending will be minimized. Municipal annexation, taxation, and expenditure outcomes from the 1970s are analysed in an empirical framework that reflects the interactions among these variables in dynamic municipal settings. The results are consistent with the existence of an optimal level of annexation.     

荷兰食品产业与创新概述

从食品产业来讲,荷兰是一个强国,在全球享有很高声誉,而产学研协同创新是荷兰食品产业取得成功的关键。本文对荷兰食品产业及发展方向、主要食品研发机构和企业,以及食品谷等做了简要介绍,以加深对荷兰食品产业的了解,推动中荷在食品领域的合作。     

中国式“荷兰病”与中国区域经济发展

文章从实证角度深入探讨了中国式"荷兰病"通过"支出效应"、"资源转移效应"和"人民币汇率效应"等渠道,对中国区域经济发展特别是对西部大开发的影响.文章建议适时扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,加大中央政府对中西部地区在政策和资金等方面的支持力度,以及鼓励中西部内陆地区更积极主动地改善投资环境和培育优势产业,从而减少中国式"荷兰病"对中国区域经济发展的不利影响,促进我国区域经济的协调发展.