A Model of Technological Progress in the Microprocessor Industry

This paper develops a model of technological progress in the microprocessor industry that connects the seemingly disparate engineering and economic measures of technological progress. Technological progress in the microprocessor industry is driven by the repeated adoption of higher quality vintages of capital equipment produced by the upstream semiconductor equipment industry. The model characterizes the optimal adoption decision of a microprocessor firm and the resulting rate of technological progress. In conjunction with parameters estimated using a new dataset of the microprocessor industry, the model suggests explanations for the acceleration in technological progress during 1990–2000 and the subsequent slowdown.     

中国制造业最优环境规制强度的选择——基于绿色全要素生产率的视角

按照污染排放强度,本文将中国28个制造业部门分为重度污染产业、中度污染产业和轻度污染产业三大类,在测算1999—2009年三大产业部门环境规制强度和绿色全要素生产率的基础上,利用面板数据模型对环境规制与绿色全要素生产率的关系进行检验,力图从促进生产率的角度找出不同产业最优环境规制强度的拐点。研究结果表明:重度污染产业当前环境规制强度相对合理,能够促进产业绿色全要素生产率提高、技术创新和效率改进;中度污染产业环境规制强度较弱,环境规制与绿色全要素生产率、技术创新和技术效率的关系呈"U"型,相对于生产率和技术创新而言技术效率可以更早地突破"U"型拐点;轻度污染产业环境规制强度与三者的关系也呈"U"型,相对于生产率和技术效率而言,技术创新能够更早突破"U"型拐点。在制定适当的环境规制强度同时,政府应推进环境规制政策从控制型向激励型转变,诱导企业进行技术创新,实现环境和经济发展的双赢。     

Optimizing capital investments under technological change and deterioration: A case study on MRI machine replacement

ABSTRACT

We study the multiple style and type parallel asset replacement problem (MST-PRES), which determines an optimal policy for keeping or replacing a group of assets that operate in parallel under a limited budget. Operating assets generally suffer from deterioration, which results in high operation and maintenance (O&M) cost and decreased salvage value, and technological improvements make it possible for new assets to operate more efficiently at a lower cost. In order to address these issues, we formulate a multi-objective mixed-integer programming (MIP) model that minimizes fixed and variable costs of purchasing new assets, O&M cost, inventory cost, and penalty cost for unmet demand minus salvage values, while considering technological advances and deterioration as a gain and loss in capacity, respectively. We apply our model to a case study involving two different styles of assets: a full-body magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machine and a smaller extremity magnetic resonance imaging (eMRI) machine. Each has two types: high-field and low-field. We perform computational experiments and analyses using key model parameters and illustrate optimal replacement strategies considering the impact of technological advances and deterioration. Results show that the proposed MIP model provides valuable insights and strategies for companies, decision makers, and government entities on the capital asset management.     

Technical change,competition and vertical integration

This paper starts with a survey of the received theories of vertical integration. We then extend these theories by arguing that while uncertainty in general will make integration more effective, a particular type of uncertainty, the possibility of technological obsolescence, works the other way. After making this point at a conceptual level, we build a model to study how the frequency of technological change interacts with the intensity of competition to influence the optimal level of integration. The predictions of the model are then tested and very strongly supported by data from 93 industries.     

Optimised asset replacement strategy in the presence of lead time uncertainty

This paper develops an optimal replacement strategy for capital intensive equipment with long delivery lead time. The strategy is based on an extended version of the real options approach to repeated replacement decisions, in which the goal is to determine the operating cost and delivery lead-time conditions upon which a replacement should be ordered.The real options approach to capital replacement problems is superior to traditional net present value (NPV) approaches, as it values of the option to adapt decisions based on current (rather than predicted) system conditions. However, previous applications of the real options approach to repeated replacement have not considered the impact of long and uncertain lead times, and have therefore focused on when to replace rather than when to order. Delivery lead times are an important consideration in an expanding mining sector in which demand for heavy mobile equipment (HME) exceeds the capacity of suppliers to provide the equipment in a timely manner.The inclusion of a lead time element results in a decision with an “option” period and an “option-less” period. Simulations are used to demonstrate the improved outcome of real options based replacement strategies compared with those derived using a traditional NPV approach, both with and without lead times. Further the performance of the order placement strategy with different boundary conditions, bounded and reflecting, is explored. No appreciable difference in performance of these strategies was identified. The optimal order placement strategy incorporating delivery lead times is displayed on a simple chart which is accessible to fleet management personnel.     

基于DEA-Tobit的装备制造业上市公司经营绩效研究——来自2005～2010年装备制造业的经验数据分析

本文以2005～2010年中国装备制造业上市公司为研究主体,以其经营绩效为研究对象,利用主成分法和因子分析对指标进行筛选并剔除,构建装备制造业上市公司绩效指标体系.运用DEAMalmquist指数法对经营绩效进行评价并得出装备制造业全要素生产率的提高主要得力于技术进步,而技术效率也是影响全要素生产率的因素的结论.通过Tobit回归找出其他因素对经营绩效的影响程度.实证表明,装备制造业整体绩效并不理想,要想使装备制造业健康持续发展就需同时兼顾技术效率、技术进步的提高,同时重视公司内部的管理与决策能力,实现规模经济.     

Economic life replacement under improving technology

The economic life (EL) method of asset replacement is analyzed under improving technology that impacts the maintenance cost, new asset cost, and salvage value. In particular, we prove that the asset EL is constant when all these costs decrease with the same rate. If these costs decrease geometrically, then the EL method with a corrected capital recovery factor calculates the optimal asset lifetime over the infinite horizon for arbitrary age-dependent deterioration and salvage value. In a general case, the EL method delivers an optimal replacement decision when the relative rate of technological change is less than 1%. For larger rates, we recommend to minimize the annual cost over two future replacement cycles, which was earlier proposed and implemented by Christer and Scarf, Journal of the Operational Research Society 45, 1994.     

非均衡条件下技术扩散路径的理论辩争与现实选择——基于辽宁装备制造业的经验性分析

以非均衡条件为背罱,在对比分析“比较优势”和“逆比较优势”的基础上,提出应按照中国（以辽宁省为例）具体的资源禀赋条件,产品、市场结构和区位优势,大力发展和振兴传统产业中的装备制造业。通过对技术引进和技术自主创新经验的分析总结,文章得出了以技术自主创新为主线,以技术创新体系为依托,创建出多元技术进步方式和扩散途径的基本结论。     

技术进步越快越好吗

技术进步越快越好吗？本文在内生经济增长的理论框架内，构建一个模型来研究当通过选择专利保护强度来追求社会福利最大化时，政府所应选择的最优技术进步率的问题，并在此基础上，研究政府在实施专利保护时所应该考虑的各种因素以及对我国的启示。本文的研究结论表明，对技术进步是否越快越好的问题的回答是否定的。     

ICT investment-specific technological change and productivity growth in Korea: Comparison of 1996–2005 and 2006–2015

This paper analyses the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on the productivity growth in Korea with the dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model including investment-specific technological change. According to the balanced growth path analysis, ICT investment-specific technological change accounts for 18.8% to labor productivity growth in 1995–2005, then 14.3% in 2006–2015, and the decline in the rate of ICT investment-specific technological change has contributed to the slow productivity growth since the mid-2000s. In cyclical fluctuations, ICT investment-specific technological shocks were significant in output variance in 1996–2005, but neutral technological shocks and non-ICT investment specific shocks became dominant in 2006–2015. In sum, it can be concluded that the impacts of ICT investment-specific technology have diminished in the growth path and cyclical fluctuations. The result that increased (decreased) ICT investment intensity with faster (slower) ICT investment-specific technological change lead to higher (lower) productivity growth indicates that Korea has been a case against the productivity paradox, and sustained technological progress in ICT and expansion of ICT usage could have boosted the productivity growth. Therefore, this study implies that facilitating ICT progress and ICT usage outside of the already well-performing ICT manufacturing can help Korean economy raise the productivity growth rate.     

产业外部性对全要素生产率及其分解的实证研究

本文构建关于MAR外部性、Jacobs外部性与Porter外部性与全要素生产率的空间计量模型,实证检验了以2004年为基期的2005~2015年中国省域制造业的产业外部性对于全要素生产率的影响,同时将产业细分为劳动密集型、资源密集型以及技术密集型进行探讨研究 。通过构建空间计量模型,发现雅各布斯外部性与波特外部性对于制造业整体以及3个细分产业的全要素生产率的影响非常显著,都对全要素生产率的增长具有促进作用。针对生产率分解后的技术进步与技术效率的实证证明,产业多样化可以促进制造业技术效率改善而对技术进步具有抑制作用,市场竞争可以促进制造业技术进步,与波特外部性不谋而合。提高产业专业化以及保持产业的区域垄断更能促进劳动密集型产业技术进步,支持了MAR外部性的观点。劳动密集型产业技术效率的变动则主要是通过区域的竞争来影响;资源密集型产业的技术进步与技术效率只有波特外部性在发挥正向效应;技术密集型产业的技术进步需要保持产业的专业化,而提高产业的多样化与有效的市场竞争更利于技术效率的改善。     

变电站断路器更换方法的优化

随着电力事业的飞速发展,许多变电站安装的老式一次设备需更换。断路器作为重要的一次设备,对于变电站的稳定运行具有重要作用,但传统的更换方法存在时间长、影响供电可靠性的问题。在保证工程质量的前提下,运用关键路径法对110kV变电站断路器更换的施工方法进行了优化分析。应用实践表明,此方法可以极大地缩短工期,减少线路停电时间,有利于提高电力系统的稳定性和供电可靠性。     

行业异质性、适度知识产权保护与出口技术进步

本文将受知识产权保护制度约束的模仿效应参数及模仿成本引入Hausman的技术水平模型,通过建立1994—2009年SITC Rev.3的三位编码产品与中国国民经济中35个工业行业的对应关系,构建了行业出口技术水平测算指标,运用固定效应模型与系统GMM估计方法,实证分析了知识产权保护对行业出口技术进步的影响及在不同行业间的差异性体现。研究结果表明:中国知识产权保护制度的完善对出口技术提升起到了加速器的作用,但并未对出口规模扩张做出显著直接贡献,而是通过影响出口技术间接作用于出口规模;不同行业的知识属性差异使知识产权保护的出口技术进步效应在研发强度大、技术水平高、外资渗透率高的行业中更显著。     

网络技术进步与旧技术平台的关闭

本文在对网络效应和网络兼容特性进行异质性设定的基础上,从网络厂商和网络消费者的最优行为出发,通过模型构建和推演,对网络技术进步的实现条件进行了深入分析。本文的研究结论显示,厂商在一定条件下具有推出网络技术进步的惰性;如果厂商推出的是可自发实现的网络技术进步,则厂商可以保留其旧技术平台,否则厂商需要关闭旧技术平台以利于推出新一代网络技术。     

情感化设计在服装中的体现

随着时代的进步,人们的生活也变得更加现代化和科技化,同时人们对精神范畴的追求就更加强烈。本文从情感化设计的角度,对中西方传统服饰中的情感因素进行分析,并阐述了现代新型服装中所渗透的情感概念,为情感化的设计发展提供理论支撑,以提升现代服装设计的情感内涵和人文关怀。     

COST EFFECTIVENESS— The Economic Evaluation of Engineered Systems Edited by J. Morley English John Wiley and Sons,Inc.

In this case study four actual energy efficiency projects are analyzed with two traditional engineering economy capital budgeting methods - internal rate of return and payback period - and the results compared with those obtained using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The alternative scenarios of the future states-of-the-world necessary for the latter are based on information available in Department of Energy reports. The traditional and CAPM approaches result in different economic conclusions for some of the projects. These differences are analyzed and the implications for certain types of improvement projects and equipment replacement problems as well as financial decision-making in general are discussed.     

Competition & Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patent and Productivity Data

Is there any evidence that innovation and technological progress are constrained by competition and fostered by monopoly power? Our results, based on a constructed dataset of U.S. manufacturing industries observed over more than two decades, suggest that this is not the case. On the contrary, using both patent statistics and productivity growth as alternative measures of innovation and technological change, we observe faster technological advances in more competitive markets. These results are robust to changes in the econometric techniques used to model nonlinearity in the competition‐innovation relationship and to alternative methods of computing market power.     

鲁西北纸业循环经济产业模式初探

从鲁西北纸业工艺流程、技术革新、设备管理、节能降耗、资源利用等方面入手,探索如何发展循环经济、实现行业内部的清洁生产;并从生态工业园区的建设、政府干预等宏观方面,讨论了实现地区循环经济的一些必要条件,以期实现经济与环境发展的双赢,为鲁西北的经济发展做出贡献。     

A Multi-Attribute Product Life-Cycle Approach to Replacement Decisions: An Application of Saaty's System-With-Feedback Method

The lack of investment in new manufacturing technology compromises the long-range competitiveness of a manufacturing company. The choice of appropriate manufacturing equipment is an extremely important management decision. This paper presents a multi-attribute approach to equipment replacement decisions based on the product life-cycle. The problem is formulated using the System-With-Feedback (SWF) model developed by Saaty [10]. Saaty's model is particularly suitable tor the modeling of time-dynamic and tnieraciive elements of such replacement situations.     

基于技术间断的不可逆产品替代陷阱研究

本文从“企业越创新越死亡”的悖论出发,引出了不可逆产品替代陷阱的概念,通过从技术间断的角度对不可逆产品替代的过程进行描述和分析,总结出了企业陷入不可逆产品替代陷阱的原因。进而分析了不可逆替代陷阱的常见表现及其特征,提出了企业避免陷入不可逆产品替代陷阱的一些对策思路。