Models for Cash Flow Estimation in Capital Budgeting

This paper discusses a fundamental change that appears to be occurring in the practical and theoretical aspects of engineering economy. Recent emphasis on the engineer's role in strategic and design-related decision processes has created a very real need for a change in focus in engineering economy technique and methodology. Several areas of research opportunity that arise because of the paradigm shift are also identified herein.     

Duration and the Risk Adjustment of Discount Rates for Capital Budgeting

Capital budgeting applications frequently necessitate the use of a discounting methodology to allow for time value of money, supplemented by payback calculation to assess liquidity risk. This paper explains how both concerns can be addressed in a single process by using duration measure in making discount rate adjustments which allow for the timing of the expected cash flows.     

Managing the Short-Term Interest Rate Exposure Inherent in Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans

This paper develops a model for determining the level of, and changes over time in, the short-term interest rate exposure contained in adjustable rate mortgage loans (ARMs). Results of the study indicate that movements in the underlying adjustment index can create both upward-movement or downward-movement interest rate risk for lenders whose ARMs carry rate adjustment limits. The model presented here is useful for designing hedging strategies for ARM loans, and for analyzing the impact of new originations on the interest rate exposure of the ARM portfolio.     

部分发达国家利率期货发展路径及对我国的启示

随着中国人民银行在1996年建立全国统一的拆借市场以及尝试国债市场化的发行,我国拉开了利率市场化的序幕。利率市场化加速推进的过程中,利率风险将逐步加大,利率期货作为有效的风险管理工具,已成为世界成熟金融市场最重要的金融衍生工具。本文研究了美国、英国和日本等发达国家利率期货的发展路径,并从利率现货市场培育、利率期货合约设计、政府监管和自律监管等三方面得到发展我国利率期货的启示。     

经济结构调整:政府的职责与国资的动作

政府在经济结构调整中的基本态度,应该从传统的“国际推动发展”转变为“增进市场”。政资不分是政企不分的根源,不宜由财政部门代享股东权益;政府定位失据导致混淆了“国资进退”和“结构调整”,行政性扭亏增盈的负面效应太大。政府需要在三个方面提供制度保障：一是彻底清理现有法规;二是以分级所有为产权框架,建立出资人制度;三是为解决两大负债打下制度基础。国资进退的辩证关系是不退不进,退而后进。     

Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.     

Social Capital as a Microlevel Origin of Organizational Capabilities

The microlevel concept of social capital has received significant attention in management and sociological research but has not yet been empirically associated with the development of organizational capabilities. The major purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship of social capital with marketing and research and development (R&D) capability and to explore how the environmental context moderates the social capital–organizational capability link. It is suggested that top management's social capital provides a firm with important information and control benefits that facilitate effective access to the knowledge and resources necessary for building superior organizational capabilities. In addition, we identify the role of two important environmental factors influencing the social capital–organizational capability link: technological turbulence and competitive intensity. The strength of the relationship between social capital and organizational capabilities is proposed to vary depending on the level of these two environmental characteristics. This study conceptualizes and operationalizes social capital as a multidimensional construct reflected by the structural dimension of tie strength, the relational dimension of trust, and the cognitive dimension of solidarity. Survey and archival data on 280 firms from various industries are analyzed using structural equation modeling. Empirical support for the proposed three‐dimensional structure of social capital is found. Results further indicate that social capital is a significant antecedent to both marketing and R&D capability, which in turn significantly affect firm performance. While a positive relationship between social capital and organizational capabilities is supported in general, the strength of this relationship depends on the environmental context the firm is embedded in. The positive effect of social capital on marketing capability increases in environments with high technological turbulence and competitive intensity; the opposite holds for R&D capability. This research contributes to the resource‐based view by introducing social capital as an important microlevel factor promoting the development of organizational capabilities. By identifying and evaluating two important environmental contingencies, our study also decreases some of the ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of antecedents to organizational capabilities. The findings further help practitioners decide under what circumstances investing in top‐managers' social capital provides an effective means for achieving superior performance through enhanced organizational capabilities. This should have an important bearing on issues such as management training and incentives as well as on hiring policies.     

Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza–Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25–50% of the sample lies in the positive response region.     

我国主要国家级开发区的运行效率及提升路径选择——基于外资与土地利用视角

本文从外资与土地的集约利用角度,将国家级开发区的发展划分为四种模式,利用数据包络分析对我国27个国家级开发区2004—2006年的土地利用效率和外资利用效率进行实证分析,发现形成了外资与土地利用效率双高的集约高效发展模式,以及外资与土地利用效率一高一低的失衡发展模式的开发区都很少,大量存在的是外资与土地利用效率双低的粗放型发展模式,并据此提出单边突破式、扬优补劣渐进式,以及短期积蓄能量跨越式发展等几种效率提升路径。     

The Political Representation of the Labour Interest in Britain

This article analyses the condition of the labour alliance of the Labour Party and its affiliated unions in the light of a recent typology of union–party links, and of Lewis Minkin's seminal study of the British union–party link. We conclude that, while the link appeared to have stabilized before the general election in 2001, it has become much more volatile since, although the new group of more left‐wing leaders of major unions remains determined to reassert the union position inside the party rather than radically change the union–Labour relationship.     

试论黄金比率在服装设计教学中的运用

黄金比率不仅在建筑、绘画、音乐和科学生产中拥有巨大的美学价值,而且在日用品和工艺美术及科学实验中得到了广泛地应用。本文就黄金比率在服装设计教学中的运用展开相应的论述。     

构建企业文化模式应考虑的因素

江泽民总书记在党的“十五大”报告中明确指出：“社会主义现代化应该有繁荣的经济,也应该有繁荣的文化。”“全党必须从社会主义事业兴旺发达和民族振兴的高度,充分认识文化建设的重要性和紧迫性。”中国优秀的企业文化,是有中国特色的社会主义文化的一个重要组成部分。构建电力勘测设计企业文化建设的模式,搞好企业文化建设,适应市场经济发展的客观要求是摆在我们面前一项光荣而艰巨的任务。一、企业文化的内涵据初步统计,关于企业文化定义达100多种,归纳国内外最有影响和最有代表性的有三种：1.“总和说”。“总和说”认为,企业文…     

组织资源配置中的社会资本问题探析

管理的任务在于对组织资源进行优化配置.社会资本是行政方式和市场方式之外的第三种组织资源配置方式.社会资本方式的优点明显,问题更突出.问题主要体现在组织资源配置的非均衡性.对于这个问题的解决,文章作者提供了四种路径,分别是扩大资源总量、扩大交往、宏扬主体性和强化正式制度.     

我国商品房空置率分析

近几年房地产投资波动存在很大的不确定性,对其波动原因进行分析有利于更好地掌握房地产投资波动规律及周期,能极大地提高宏观调控的科学性和有效性,改善微观层面的房地产投资决策能力。商品房空置率是影响房地产投资波动的因素之一,研究这一因素是如何影响房地产的投资波动的,其影响的程度有多大,这是我国房地产投资者关心的问题。揭示商品房空置率与房地产投资波动之间的内在关系,无论在理论上还是在实践上都有十分重要的意义。     

提高体育器械在幼儿活动中的使用率

<正>化工街幼儿园成立于1986年,是兰州石化幼教中心下属单位,为甘肃省一类幼儿园,兰州市市级示范幼儿园。幼儿园极为重视QC活动对幼儿园教育教学起到的作用。QC小组曾于2004年获甘肃省QC成果发表一等奖,全国优秀QC小组称号,2009年QC成果获全国杯发表赛二等奖。     

对施工企业提高工程一次合格率的认识和思考

对工程质量一次合格率的认识施工企业的工程质量合格率,一般来说是指检验合格的产品数量与受检的产品总数的比率。按照工程质量验收标准的规定,分为检验批合格率、分项工程合格率、分部工程合格率,单位工程合格率,其中检验批合格率是最基本的,其他各项合格率都是在此基础上统计的结果。工程质量合格率和产品合