A PARAMETRIC WEIGHING APPROACH FOR PROJECT SELECTION UNDER RISK

Parametric weighing is a practical approach for project selection under risk. Only subsets of projects that satisfy budget constraints are considered, in order to maximize the sum of the weighted combinations of worth values minus risk estimations, for different combinations of weights. Decision support is provided via a parametric presentation of the selected subsets and the range of parameter (weight ratio) values over which each subset is optimal. Practical applicability of the approach is demonstrated via the study of a parametric weighing model. A solution scheme for the model has been installed on a personal (486) computing platform. The results of a computational study provide insight into the model and verify its applicability.     

Fuzzy Present Value Analysis Model For Evaluating Information System Projects

In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using present value is analyzed based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs, benefits, and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. In this study, we propose an approximate method of computing project present value using the concept of fuzzy modeling with special reference to information system projects. This proposed model has the potential of enhancing the project selection process by capturing a better economic picture of the project alternatives. The proposed methodology can also be used for other real-life projects with high degree of uncertainty and risk.     

Prioritizing Project Selection

We consider capital investments under uncertainty. A typical approach to this problem, when the problem parameters are assumed known, is via a multi-knapsack model. This model takes as input annual budgets as well as the cost streams and profit—i.e., net present value (NPV)—of each project. Its output is a portfolio of projects with the highest total NPV, observing yearly budget constraints. We argue that such a portfolio fails to hedge against uncertainties in the budgets, the cost streams, and the profits. As an alternative, we propose a model that forms an optimal priority list of projects, incorporating multiple scenarios for these input parameters. We apply our approach to two sets of example projects from the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company.     

Optimal expenditure patterns for risky R&D projects with time-dependent returns

The basic Lucas model for risky R&D projects is revisited. New solutions for optimal expenditures are explored by exploiting the merits of the theory of differential equations. After applying the calculus of variations, a nonlinear differential equation is presented whose solution provides the optimal control for a constant conditional-completion density function and different time-dependent return models. New, exact, and approximate solutions are presented and discussed. It is found, for the class of risky R&D projects under study, that the behavior over time of the optimal expenditure is functionally similar to that of the expected return.     

Mid-Cycle Capital Planning Optimization

A typical capital rationing problem takes place at the beginning of a fiscal cycle, where a project portfolio is chosen to maximize expected return subject to a budget constraint. This article examines mid-cycle capital planning, which occurs near the end of a fiscal cycle. Motivated by the “budget-lapsing” rule, the decision-maker embarks on a “year-end spending spree.” We use chance-constrained methodology to address two new constraints: reaching profit target set at the beginning of the year and exhausting the budget completely. Data from Lockheed Martin Space Systems illustrate how the optimal portfolio selection is influenced by these constraints.     

Risk management, project success, and technological uncertainty

In times of increased competition and globalization, project success becomes even more critical to business performance, and yet many projects still suffer delays, overruns, and even failure. Ironically, however, risk management tools and techniques, which have been developed to improve project success, are used too little, and many still wonder how helpful they are. In this paper we present the results of an empirical study devoted to this question. Based on data collected on over 100 projects performed in Israel in a variety of industries, we examine the extent of usage of some risk management practices, such as risk identification, probabilistic risk analysis, planning for uncertainty and trade-off analysis, the difference in application across different types of projects, and their impact on various project success dimensions. Our findings suggest that risk management practices are still not widely used. Only a limited number of projects in our study have used any kind of risk management practices and many have only used some, but not all the available tools. When used, risk management practices seem to be working, and appear to be related to project success. We also found that risk management practices were more applicable to higher risk projects. The impact of risk management is mainly on better meeting time and budget goals and less on product performance and specification. In this case, we also found some differences according levels of technological uncertainty. Our conclusion is that risk management is still at its infancy and that at this time, more awareness to the application, training, tool development, and research on risk management is needed.     

采用甲方施工图预算和工程量清单计价相结合的办法控制工程造价

按照正常的工程结算方式,我们国家大多采用的是施工图预算方式,施工图预算的依据为国家和行业定额加相关取费文件.但是,由于施工图预算计算起来往往由于预算人员的计算误差和对施工图理解的不同,思维方式的不同,造成建设单位和施工单位计算的结果误差较大,给工程结算造成较大的麻烦.为了解决这一问题,作者在多年从事工程概预算经验的基础上,提出对工程结算的方式进行改革.采用变乙方作施工图预算为甲方作预算的办法,在工程结算中对于规范项目按照国际上通用的做法-工程量清单计价的办法.在具体项目上要灵活运用甲方施工图预算和工程量清单计价的特点,将二者有机的结合在一起,对有效确定和控制工程造价具有重要的意义.     

Evaluation of Nonconventional Projects: GIRR and GERR vs. MIRR

This article considers evaluation of nonconventional projects and projects with cash outflows occurring not only at the beginning of project. It has been proved that, being a monotonically increasing function of a discount or finance rate, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) fails to characterize the rate of return of such projects. We showed how to eliminate the MIRR's dependence on a finance rate and proved that in this case the MIRR becomes the “equivalent rate of return” proposed by Solomon. The generalized internal rate of return (GIRR) and generalized external rate of return (GERR) indices based on the generalized net present value (GNPV) approach are considered as alternatives to the MIRR. Several nonconventional projects have been evaluated using the MIRR, GIRR, and GERR rules. In order to verify the estimates, we drew up a simple project balance sheet, which demonstrated correctness of the results based on the GIRR and GERR rules and errors inherent in the MIRR application.     

On allocating R&D budgets among and within projects

Choosing how to allocate resources to R&D projects is challenging, due to their uncertain success rates and achievement levels. We address the issue of allocating a given R&D budget among projects, and to parallel teams within each project. The achievement level of each team is assumed to be stochastically increasing in its funding level. We consider the objectives of maximizing: 1. the weighted sum of the probabilities that best team in each project achieves a threshold; 2. the weighted sum of expected achievement levels; and 3. the weighted sum of the expected number of teams attaining their threshold. Numerical results for a particular family of distributions are provided. The nature of the objective is seen to have a substantial impact on the optimal allocation.     

Definition of innovation projects in small firms: A Spanish study

Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) are the main holders of the European economy and innovation projects are essential tools for SMEs to ensure their growth. A high percentage of innovation projects implemented by SMEs lacks planning and initial management, which causes the appearance of important problems for the SMEs survival. The authors have confirmed with a field study of 72 Spanish small firms that a lot of these problems arise from an incomplete project definition, so it is necessary to help SMEs to have a specific methodology that is appropriate to their own characteristics and projects. The statistical analysis shows how the project management knowledge helps to a better project definition, contributing to the project alignment with the company strategy. Also, it reveals other problems related to the project definition as planning, budget, market and financing. Of this analysis, it concludes that the definition phase supports the other phases and is essential in order to achieve project success. This paper presents an ‘integration model of factors’ that helps SMEs in the management of the definition phase of their innovation projects. This model relates the various areas of analysis needed to ensure their integration at the project definition. The relationships between the different model areas have been defined, showing the way to integrate the technical, economic and strategic outlooks of project objectives management in the definition phase of the project. This model has been implemented in 21 new innovation project definitions. The users' valuation has been very positive with a 90.4% of success and all of the model users are interested in implementing the model again in next projects. The main advantages highlighted were user‐friendliness, intuitive model and easy application.     

Budget Allocation Among R&D Teams with Interdependent Uncertain Achievement Levels and a Common Goal

How should a firm allocate a budget among projects with different uncertain potentials and interdependent achievement levels? Parallel teams pursuing different R&;D approaches towards a particular objective, whose uncertain achievement levels improve with funding, are to be allocated a fixed budget. Clearly, the optimal allocation depends on the exact objective. We consider three objectives: maximizing the probability that the most successful activity achieves some pre-specified threshold; maximizing the expected achievement of the most successful activity; and maximizing the expected number of activities reaching some threshold(s). To model achievement levels, we use the Marshall and Olkin and a Gumbel's bivariate exponential distributions. The achievement levels in the individual activities are set to be stochastically increasing in the respective budget allocations. We analyze the models resulting from the three objectives and provide supportive numerical results. Some of the qualitative conclusions are intuitive, while others are not.     

Strategic Project Leadership ® Toward a strategic approach to project management

Strategic Project Leadership ^® (SPL) is a new approach to project management that is focusing projects on creating competitive advantage and winning in the marketplace. This approach is particularly relevant to strategic projects that are initiated to create the company's future, including almost all R&D projects. In the traditional approach, project managers and teams were typically focused on getting the job done, and meeting time and budget goals. SPL , provides a modern view. It suggests that projects are initiated for business reasons, and that just 'getting the job done' is not enough. This paper presents a mindset, a framework, and a practical, step-by-step approach on how to connect project management to business results and how to turn projects into powerful competitive weapons. The paper is based on extensive case research, of which we present six cases – three successes and three disappointments – to demonstrate the value of the SPL approach to project management.¹     

Causes of Budget Changes in Building Construction Projects: An Empirical Study in Taiwan

Most contractors pay close attention to managing costs due to the direct impacts of cost overruns on their profits. Contractors often cannot effectively control the costs of a construction project due to inaccurate budget allocation, resulting in unsuccessfully forecasting project profits or losses until the project's completion. This study analyzed three real cases and utilized a questionnaire survey to identify the main causes of budget changes in building construction projects in Taiwan. Research results reveal that “client changes,” “inaccurately estimated quantities,” and “unclear drawings and specifications” are the main causes of budget changes. These results provide not only a means of correcting the causes of inaccurate budget allocation but also a measure for project managers to review and control their project costs, which is important to a contractor during a low-profit era.     

试论文物保护工程中的造价管理与实践

随着国家经济和社会的不断发展,各地开展文物保护工程的项目不断增多,对文物保护工程的造价管理提出了更高要求.笔者发现长期以来对该领域的工程造价研究还不够,实际工作中经常引起造价争议,进而给确定工程造价合理化和市场化带来困扰.文章从文物古建筑、古墓葬、古遗址等保护工程出发,并结合国家文物局发布的《文物建筑保护工程预算定额(...     

Steady state and portfolio concept in R & D management

This paper describes a new approach for closing the gap between the tools for strategic goal management and operational management in Pharmaceutical R&D. The strategic level may concern with expectation of sales, rising from new products and with total R & D budget. The operational level concerns with project selection, project and multiproject management problems, solution of project related technical problems, determination of the size of the various functions and the functional management. This new method combines the R & D project portfolio management with a steady state concept allowing the attainment of a constant number of projects under development and a continuous full use of the capacity available.     

基于主材的输电线路工程本体费用估算方法

与通常利用设计工程量、安装定额、取费定额和专有的建设预算软件编制输电线路工程本体匡算方法相比,基于主材的输电线路工程本体费用估算方法简单易行且通俗易懂。案例分析表明,该方法可行、可靠和便捷。可用于多方案比较和设计方案优化、计算和控制初始投资等;便于非技术经济专业人员参与工程项目的审核,它不需使用专业造价软件,使用计算器、电子表格即可。     

Average Internal Rate of Return and Investment Decisions: A New Perspective

The internal rate of return (IRR) is often used by managers and practitioners for investment decisions. Unfortunately, it has serious flaws: (1) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise; (2) complex-valued IRRs may arise; (3) the IRR is, in general, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions; (4) the IRR ranking is, in general, different from the NPV ranking; (5) the IRR criterion is not applicable with variable costs of capital. The efforts of economists and management scientists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense bulk of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. This article offers a complete solution to this long-standing unresolved issue by changing the usual perspective: the IRR equation is dismissed and the evaluator is allowed to describe the project as an investment or a borrowing at his discretion. This permits showing that any arithmetic mean of the one-period return rates implicit in a project reliably informs about a project's profitability and correctly ranks competing projects. With such a measure, which we call average internal rate of return, complex-valued numbers disappear and all the above-mentioned problems are wiped out. The economic meaning is compelling: it is the project return rate implicitly determined by the market. The traditional IRR notion may be found as a particular case.     

政府投资公益性建设项目的博弈分析

目前我国政府投资公益性建设项目中普遍存在三超现象,政府机构与建设单位之间总是处于超投资,追加投资状态,为了深入探讨三超现象,引入博弈论方法,按照现行工程管理模式下信息不对称的特征及信息模型,建立了项目各主体之间的行为动态博弈模型,基于寻租经济理论,给出了混合纳什均衡解,根据均衡解给出解决权力寻租活动的相应对策,并提出完善推进代建制、有效监督机制和权力约束机制的政策建议,以从根本上杜绝建设项目的寻租行为,最大限度降低三超现象。     

A binary solution method for the multi-product newsboy problem with budget constraint

Multi-product newsboy problem (MPNP) with budget constraint is a classical inventory control/management problem. However, solution methods for MPNP under general demand distributions are limited in the current literature. In this paper, by analyzing properties of the optimal solution to the MPNP with a budget constraint, we develop a solution algorithm for the constrained MPNP. The proposed algorithm is binary in nature, and is applicable to general types of demand distribution functions, discrete as well as continuous. For continuous demand distribution function, our approach can obtain the optimal or near optimal solution to the constrained MPNP with polynomial computation complexity of the o(n) order. On the other hand, for discrete demand distribution functions, it can effectively provide good approximate solution. Numerical experiments are presented to show the performance of our method.     

Scale and performance in publicly funded collaborative research and development

This paper reports the results of an extensive empirical investigation on the role of project scale (reflected in consortium size and in project budget) on various performance dimensions of publicly funded collaborative research and development (R&D) projects. Recent trends in European research policy are founded on the premise that such scale economies do exist, hence the emphasis placed on the critical mass of R&D projects. We argue that large scale in collaborative R&D confers both positive and negative effects, and thus we hypothesize an inverse U‐shaped relation between scale and performance. We only find an inverse U‐shaped effect of consortium size on networking impacts and a U‐shaped effect of project budget on goal achievement. No other statistically significant relationships were found for the remaining performance dimensions (i.e. scientific outputs, technological outputs, and research capacity impacts). More generally, and consistent with recent work on the relation between quality and quantity in academic research, our analyses offer little evidence to support the idea that increasing scale generally improves collaborative R&D performance. It appears that the simple assumption ‘bigger is better’ in European Union‐financed collaborative R&D may need to be reconsidered.