Supply chain risk, simulation, and vendor selection

This paper considers three types of risk evaluation models within supply chains: chance constrained programming (CCP), data envelopment analysis (DEA), and multi-objective programming (MOP) models. Various risks are modeled in the form of probability and simulation of specific probability distribution in risk-embedded attributes is conducted in these three types of risk evaluation models. We model a supply chain consisting of three levels and use simulated data with representative distributions. Results from three models as well as simulation models are compared and analysis is conducted. The results show that the proposed approach allows decision makers to perform trade-off analysis among expected costs, quality acceptance levels, and on-time delivery distributions. It also provides alternative tools to evaluate and improve supplier selection decisions in an uncertain supply chain environment.     

Some Simple Economics of Open Source

There has been a recent surge of interest in open source software development, which involves developers at many different locations and organizations sharing code to develop and refine programs. To an economist, the behavior of individual programmers and commercial companies engaged in open source projects is initially startling. This paper makes a preliminary exploration of the economics of open source software. We highlight the extent to which labor economics, especially the literature on 'career concerns', and industrial organization theory can explain many of these projects' features. We conclude by listing interesting research questions related to open source software.     

Reliability evaluation and adjustment of supply chain network design with demand fluctuations

This study focuses on supply chain network design problems by considering economies of scale and demand fluctuations. A reliability evaluation method is developed to evaluate the performance of plants under demand fluctuations. In addition, two mathematical programming models are developed to determine the optimal adjustment decisions regarding production reallocation among plants under different fluctuating demands. The judgments to adjust or to do-nothing are investigated by comparing the results if the adjustment is made or not made. Results show that making adjustments benefits the manufacturers by reducing total production cost and avoiding revenue loss, which outweighs the extra costs, especially for high value-added products. Results also suggest that the manufacturer should ignore a short period abnormal state, since the benefits to respond to it might not compensate the high allocation costs. The results of this study provide a reference for the manufacturer in their decision making process of network planning with demand fluctuations, when they have to cope with benefits and costs during abnormal states.     

油气藏经营管理发展趋势

油气藏经营管理是国际油气领域围绕降低成本、提高经济效益而综合应用各种先进技术和管理形式及手段在实践中形成的理论和应用体系,已经历四个阶段的发展.目前,油气藏管理具有组织结构扁平化、组织模式网络化、系统流程简洁化、油气藏管理单元化、多学科团组协同化以及新技术应用更便利、评价和决策系统更完备等特点.油气田管理的核心将由油气藏管理向“油气芯”管理转变,油气藏经营将发展为油气藏的资产化和资本化经营,并按油气藏的实际价值计价,实现油气藏的资产交易或资本交易.     

AFTER-TAX ECONOMIC REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper examines after-tax serial replacement analysis under current United States tax law. The law explicitly defines the difference between an asset disposal (retirement) and a like-for-like exchange (replacement). A gain or loss is only realized when an asset is retired while a replacement leads to the transfer of any residual book value balance to the acquired asset. This transferal greatly complicates analysis and leads to non-stationary solutions, even with time invariant costs. We analyze the effect of this movement in book value for assets on replacement decisions. Furthermore, a dynamic programming formulation is presented with a state space defined by asset age and initial book value, as current replacement models cannot correctly capture the after-tax cash flow implications of this balance transfer. The new model is compared to traditional after-tax replacement models which assume that a gain or loss is realized at each asset sale over the horizon. Examples illustrate that this assumption can lead to widely different solutions, especially in the cases where gains or losses from asset sales are large.     

T厂2×330MW机组供热改造项目经济评价

伴随环境污染问题滋生的热电联产方案备受关注,本文首先阐述了供热改造项目的背景及其必要性,对该项目进行了技术可行性分析以及经济评价。结合多年的行业经验,创新地提出了热电联产改造项目新增成本费用与收益的界定方法。并通过财务评价,得出该项目经济合理性的结论。最后对该项目投产后的运营风险进行了简要分析,并提出了相应的应对措施。评价结果表明,T厂2×330MW机组供热改造项目不仅符合国家节能减排政策要求,而且具有可观的经济效益,为T厂的可持续发展提供了一条有效的途径,同时也为周边地区带来了良好的环境和社会效益。     

Economic and welfare impacts of commercializing a herbicide-tolerant,biotech wheat

A transgenic variety of spring wheat was proposed for deregulation in North America in 2002. (More recently, the developer shelved this plan.) In this paper, a quantitative model is used to analyze the possible economic impact of commercializing a crop for which there may be sizable consumer resistance. At issue is whether, and under what conditions, the economic benefits from biotech wheat could be outweighed by economic costs. The analysis also addresses the distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders: producers, consumers, and US taxpayers. Specific attention is given to the impacts on consumers in non-biotech and biotech market segments, and those in the United States and foreign countries. Under base-case assumptions, the analysis suggests that commercialization of biotech wheat could lead to a small net loss of total economic welfare. Results depend critically on several model parameters: the rate of biotech adoption; unit cost savings for biotech producers; the share of the non-biotech market segment; and extra costs associated with a ‘dual marketing system’ for wheat.     

Farmer organization,collective action and market access in Meso-America

Farmer organization and collective action are often seen as key factors in enhancing farmers’ access to markets. Often, too little attention is directed at (a) the most appropriate types of organization; (b) whether organization makes less or more sense in the case of producers of an undifferentiated commodity or a higher value product; (c) whether the public or private sector is best placed to support farmer organizations; and (d) the conditions necessary for ensuring their economic viability. Research in Mexico and Central America explored these issues for commodity maize and high value vegetables, respectively. The benefits of farmer organization are more evident in the vegetable sector, characterized by high transaction costs associated with market access. However, horticultural farmer organizations in Honduras and El Salvador include less than 5% of total horticultural producers. This is possibly due to farmer organizations’ limited business skills and non-replicable organizational models. There is less incentive for maize farmers to organize to access output markets as the transaction costs are relatively low. The benefits of maize farmer organization are clearer when it comes to accessing inputs such as credit, seed and fertilizer. Farmer organization is a critical factor in making markets work for the poor, but the role and timing of public and private investment in these organizations is poorly understood.     

Fuzzy Present Value Analysis Model For Evaluating Information System Projects

In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using present value is analyzed based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs, benefits, and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. In this study, we propose an approximate method of computing project present value using the concept of fuzzy modeling with special reference to information system projects. This proposed model has the potential of enhancing the project selection process by capturing a better economic picture of the project alternatives. The proposed methodology can also be used for other real-life projects with high degree of uncertainty and risk.     

Extending private‐collective innovation: a case study

The private‐collective innovation model proposes incentives for individuals and firms to privately invest resources to create public goods innovations. Such innovations are characterized by non‐rivalry and non‐exclusivity in consumption. Examples include open source software, user‐generated media products, drug formulas, and sport equipment designs. There is still limited empirical research on private‐collective innovation. We present a case study to (1) provide empirical evidence of a case of private‐collective innovation, showing specific benefits, and (2) to extend the private‐collective innovation model by analyzing the hidden costs for the company involved. We examine the development of the Nokia Internet Tablet, which builds on both proprietary and open source software development, and that involves both Nokia developers and volunteers who are not employed by the company. Seven benefits for Nokia are identified, as are five hidden costs: difficulty to differentiate, guarding business secrets, reducing community entry barriers, giving up control, and organizational inertia. We examine the actions taken by the management to mitigate these costs throughout the development period.     

Incorporating uncertainty into a supplier selection problem

Supplier selection is an important strategic supply chain design decision. Incorporating uncertainty of demand and supplier capacity into the optimization model results in a robust selection of suppliers. A two-stage stochastic programming (SP) model and a chance-constrained programming (CCP) model are developed to determine a minimal set of suppliers and optimal order quantities with consideration of business volume discounts. Both models include several objectives and strive to balance a small number of suppliers with the risk of not being able to meet demand. The SP model is scenario-based and uses penalty coefficients whereas the CCP model assumes a probability distribution and constrains the probability of not meeting demand. Both formulations improve on a deterministic mixed integer linear program and give the decision maker a more complete picture of tradeoffs between cost, system reliability and other factors. We present Pareto-optimal solutions for a sample problem to demonstrate the benefits of the SP and CCP models. In order to describe the tradeoffs between costs and risks in an analytical form, we use multi-parametric programming techniques to more completely analyze the alternative Pareto-optimal supplier selection solutions in the CCP model. This analysis gives insights into the robustness of the solutions with respect to number of suppliers, costs and probability of not meeting demand.     

Broadband access in the EU: An assessment of future economic benefits

This paper evaluates the net economic benefits that would derive from the implementation of the broadband infrastructure deployment targets by 2020 as entailed by the Digital Agenda for Europe Initiative set forth by the European Commission. As a first step, we estimate the returns from broadband infrastructure for the period 2005–2011, differentiating the impact of broadband by levels of adoption and speed while accounting for reverse causality and extensive heterogeneity. In the second step, the cost of broadband roll-out is assessed under different assumptions of technical performance and contrasted with the forecasted benefits that derive from increased broadband coverage. We find that in the base case scenario the overall future benefits outweigh the investment costs for the European Union as a whole for the highest performance technologies. This holds also for the majority of member states individually. We further extrapolate the returns by country under different scenarios of implementation. In most cases the benefits are substantially well above the costs. Private sector is reluctant to invest, as investors in broadband infrastructure only can partially appropriate benefits. This would suggest a rationale for the public sector to subsidize build-out of high speed broadband infrastructure.     

The Impact of Interstate Foreclosure Cost Differences and the Value of Mortgages on Default Rates

Previous research on mortgage default has focused on the costs, benefits, and characteristics of the mortgagor. In such studies default rates have been taken as a measure of mortgage risk. In this paper we present a model where the position of the lender affects the default-foreclosure process. Important to the lender's decision to foreclose rather than renegotiate an existing loan are the value of mortgage and the legal costs associated with foreclosure.
The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that both the value of the mortgage and legal foreclosure costs affect the foreclosure rate. In those states where legal foreclosure costs are high rates are significantly less than where costs are low. This suggests that previous models which include only the costs and benefits of default to the borrower are incomplete and that foreclosure rates can not be taken as a strict measure of mortgage risk. That is, low foreclosure rates may indicate that losses occur in other forms of loan negotiation rather than in expensive legal costs.     

基于非合意产出DEA的区域低碳经济发展评价研究

区域低碳经济发展评价是推动区域间碳交易及碳补偿的基础。依据低碳经济发展的能源结构、节能减排、碳吸收与存储以及经济效益4个维度,遵循系统性、可操作性、目标性原则,建立了反映低碳经济发展优劣的多层次递阶指标体系,在非合意产出DEA的基础上,建立了低碳经济发展的非合意产出DEA综合评价模型。从应用分析的结果来看,所建指标体系与模型对于区域低碳经济发展评价具有良好的适用性。     

Business suppliers' value creation potential : A capability-based analysis

Joint value creation through partnering and networking is a topic of current interest. This paper proposes that the dimensions of the supplier's value creation in a supplier-customer relationship could be classified according to efficiency, effectiveness and network functions. These functions are interrelated, but they are conceptually distinct. The value creation process could be described as a spectrum ranging from core value, to added value, to future value. The value-producing potential of a supplier can be assessed reasonably well only in the case of the core value, where there is sufficient benchmarking information in the form of existing alternative offerings and solutions. A priori evaluation of the costs and benefits of added value and, especially, future value projects is problematic, because the realisation of the value is dependent on the development of multiple partners, technologies and industries. In these cases, we suggest that a customer could use a supplier's capability profile as an indicator of how suitable that particular supplier is for specific value creation projects. A framework connecting specific capabilities to different types of value production is suggested, and its managerial implications are discussed.     

基于因子分析的国有工业企业经济效益差异性研究

国有工业企业对国有经济的发展发挥着巨大作用，很大程度上决定了所在地区的经济质量。文章依据效益理论和工业企业效益评价原则设立评价指标体系，提取了2014年各省市国有工业企业的相关数据，在全国、区域和省份3个层面上采用因子分析法对我国国有工业企业的经济效益及其差异性进行分析，发现近10年来工业增加值呈现大幅上涨趋势，不同区域的国有工业企业的发展状况有明显的差异，其经济效益不仅取决于所在区域的经济发展程度，也受工业企业类型等因素的影响。最后根据研究结果，对国家和企业自身如何更好的提升经济效益提出一些建议。     

特高压交流输电的经济性

采用技术经济比较进行特高压交流输电的经济性分析,并分别对特高压网架和特高压交流试验示范工程作具体的经济性分析计算。经测算,与运煤到华中和华东负荷中心发电相比,特高压交流输电是经济的;与500kV交流输电相比。特高压交流输电在远距离、大容量输电中具有成本低、损耗小的优势;特高压交流试验示范工程具有较强的财务生存能力和电价竞争能力。当特高压交流输电形成规模后,可以取得良好的经济效益和综合效益。     

Technical Note: Defining Project Scale

Most policy debates are fought largely with volleys of ideological slogans rather than evaluations of the costs and benefits arising from alternative proposals. The failure to measure costs and benefits creates a vacuum, rendering the political process more susceptible to manipulation by special interests. A lack of information regarding costs and benefits can also inhibit negotiations for mutually beneficial compromises. The failure to employ cost benefit analysis arises from the expense and time involved in measuring complicated phenomena. In addition, when decision makers do employ cost benefit analysis, they often omit significant gains and losses due to difficulties encountered in collecting information. In order to remedy these difficulties policy makers must make better use of computer software, which is currently being developed.     

Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background

To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method

A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results

Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion

Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.     

Flexibility Value as a Tool for Improving Decision-Making in Flexible Automation

To narrow the discrepancy between the benefits of investment in flexible automation of manufacturing systems promised by financial evaluation tools and the benefits realized in practice, we distinguish the potential flexibility of a system from its realizable flexibility. A classification is given of the realizable flexibility in automated manufacturing systems in mass, mid-variety and mid-volume, and multi-variety and small-volume production systems. A systematic procedure for quantifying the realizable flexibility in monetary terms and integrating this value into a Financial evaluation model is proposed and applied to a test case with significant results. Comparisons are also made with typical previous studies.