The Maximum Prospective Value Criterion

In this paper the authors analyze the logic of the capital budgeting decision in two different settings. First it is assumed that the decision-maker has complete information about both his current and future investment opportunities in which case the decision problem reduces basically to a computing problem. Second it is assumed that the decision maker has complete information about his current investment opportunities and a knowledge of his expectations about future investment opportunities.

The authors analyze the logic underlying the selection of the capital growth (discount) rate that should be used in determining whether a marginal increment of investment should be accepted or rejected. If the marginal increment were rejected, the unused cash would typically be invested temporarily in a highly liquid investment at a relatively low interest rate with the prospect that a better than marginal investment would absorb the funds at the next decision time.

The analysis led to the formulation of a capital-budgeting decision criterion, called the Maximum Prospective Value Criterion, which is presented in this article. As its name implies, the criterion is designed to select the set of investments that has the maximum prospective value, given the decision-maker's expectations about his future investment opportunities. This criterion relates the capital-budgeting decision to the opportunity-cost and marginal-analysis concepts of classical economics. The present-worth criterion of engineering economy is shown to be a special case of the Maximum Prospective Value Criterion, and the minimum at tractive rate of return of engineering economy when properly selected appears to be closely related to the capital growth rate on the marginal increment of investment.     

Optimal Pricing and Order-Up-To S Inventory Policy with Expected Utility of the Present Value Criterion

The article determines pricing and order-up-to level S inventory decisions over an infinite planning horizon from the point of view of a risk-averse decision maker. The demand is assumed to be stochastic but influenced by the selling price which is a decision variable. Shortages are allowed and backordered partially. We calculate the present value of the cash flow over the entire planning horizon and incorporate the notion of risk aversion into the model using a concave utility function. We numerically demonstrate the model and investigate the impact of different model-parameters on the optimal decisions. It is observed that the optimal selling price for a risk-averse decision maker is not less than the optimal selling price of a risk-neutral decision maker while the optimal order level for the risk-averse decision maker is always less than that of the risk-neutral decision maker.     

Analyzing the Techno-Economic Determinants for the Repowering of Wind Farms

The aim of this article is to identify the relative importance of technical and economic variables in the financial feasibility of repowering wind farm projects. A financial valuation model is developed. We carry out a sensitivity analysis with several variables considered to be key in the repowering decision. The most relevant technical variable is the increase in production efficiency and the most relevant economic variable is the capital expenditures in new equipment. Furthermore, the decision to repower critically depends upon the level of support being provided. The repowering project would not be feasible in the absence of support.     

A Robust Optimization Approach to Capital Rationing and Capital Budgeting

We study the pure capital rationing and the horizon capital budgeting problems using a robust optimization framework. The models and the methodology we propose take into account the uncertainty of the input data. The uncertainty of the cash flows is modeled as a range of values that is allowed for each uncertain data. Unlike stochastic models, this approach does not make assumptions on the probability distribution of uncertain data. Moreover, this approach is highly tractable, easy to implement, and provides insights into portfolio selection problems. An attractive point of the model is that the decision maker can set the value of the parameters that control the robustness of the optimal solution, in order to balance the trade-off between protection level and performance. We illustrate our models with examples that show promising results. We also provide new duality and KKT optimality conditions.     

A Review of: “STATISTICS OF EXTREMES” By Emil J. Gumbel Columbia University Press New York, 1958 375 pp. $15.00

Standard procedures for evaluating future cash flows are to find an appropriate discount rate consistent with the cash flow's risk and then to derive a present value. While discounted cash flows seem appropriate for many instances, finding appropriate discount rates is often difficult, or discount rates may not exist when the risk is actually a function of a decision that requires the cash-flow valuation. We consider two approaches that have been suggested to alleviate this problem: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory. We discuss the assumptions inherent in these models and show the results on the well-known news vendor model. Our option pricing results correspond to Singhal's [17] results using CAPM and a different valuation procedure for the option pricing model. We, however, derive a simpler expression that clearly illustrates differences from the standard form ignoring risk.     

An economic analysis of the optimal information security investment in the case of a risk-averse firm

This paper presents an analysis of information security investment from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker following common economic principles. Using the expected utility theory, we find that for a risk-averse decision maker, the maximum security investment increases with, but never exceeds, the potential loss from a security breach, and there exists a minimum potential loss below which the optimal investment is zero. Our model also shows that the investment in information security does not necessarily increase with increasing level of risk aversion of the decision maker. Relationships between vulnerability and investment effectiveness and two broad classes of security breach probability functions are examined, leading to interesting insights that can be used as guidelines for managers to determine the optimal level of security investment for certain types of security threats faced by risk-averse firms. Future research directions are discussed based on the limitations and possible extensions of this study.     

AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR ENGINEERING EDUCATION

High technology investments are a rapidly growing segment of business capital expenditures. The questionnaire responses presented in this paper provide information on the capital investment decision processes currently being used for high technology projects. Respondents indicate that the capital evaluation techniques used to justify high technology investments are similar to those used for other types of capital projects and that high-tech projects must meet normal requirements for project acceptability. Respondents specified that a wide variety of factors, some quantified and some not quantified (such as quality control and reduced lead time), are included in their decision process. While there is general satisfaction with the procedures used for project justification, the relative newness of these investments suggests that there is a need to gather more detailed information about this type of capital decision.     

Investitionsanreize unter RPI-X-Regulierung und die angemessene Höhe von Kostendurchreichungen

In the classic view, the fundamental decision between a rate-of-return and price-cap regime depends upon the aim of regulatory action: a rate-of-return is considered to more likely induce infrastructure investment while a price-cap regime is expected to increase managerial effort in reducing costs. While an asset-based regulation may lead to the unwanted Averch-Johnson effect, efficiency-oriented regulation such as RPI-X may decrease the company’s incentive to invest. To avoid this behaviour, RPI-X-regimes do often exempt certain costs from regulation, e.g. by allowing for pass-throughs for capital expenditures. Starting with the finding that efficiency-based regulation may lead to postponement or abandonment of investment projects in a real options based model, a fair rate of capital cost pass through is derived to mitigate the negative effects on investment projects. This ‘regulation-adjusted’ cost-pass-through depends on the regulatory X the regulator imposes on the regulated industry. Given the valuation of the investment project and the efficiency-value, a cost-pass-through can be calculated which is less or equal than the risk free interest rate as long as the pass-through itself is risk-free.     

On the replenishment policy when the market demand information is lagged

We consider a situation where the most up-to-date information on the market demand and the inventory levels is not available to a replenishment decision maker in a single echelon of a supply chain. The objective of the decision maker is to minimise the sum of the inventory and the production costs. An intuitively attractive strategy under this setting might be to reduce the information time lag as much as possible by utilising information technologies such as RFID. We call this strategy the Time lag Elimination Strategy (TES). However, this course of action requires investment in information systems and will incur a running cost. We propose an alternative strategy that has similar economic consequences as the TES strategy, but it does not require new information systems. We call this strategy the Controlling Dynamics Strategy (CDS). The benefit coming from CDS is quantified and is compared to that from TES. We also quantify the benefits gained from the combined use of these two strategies. A new ordering policy is introduced that is easy to implement without any forecasting systems and can reduce the production cost significantly.     

Tell me a story: The role of narrative transportation and the C-suite in B2B advertising

This research investigates stories about buyer-seller experiences in B2B advertising. In two studies, the authors explore the impact of stories and narrative transportation in advertising on decision makers’ attitudinal responses. In Study 1, findings from a Fortune 100 company’s buyer panel indicate that stories told using narrative advertising were positively related to the decision maker’s trust in the supplier, ability to form personal connections with the supplier and the tendency to advocate for the supplier. Moreover, the organizational status of the decision maker (C-suite versus non-C-suite executives) was examined. Results demonstrate that the effect of these relationships were stronger for C-level decision makers than non-C-level decision makers. In Study 2, depth interviews were conducted with C-level decision makers. Findings reinforce results from Study 1 and provide additional insight into C-level decision makers’ perspectives on stories and narrative transportation. Implications for how stories about buyer-seller relationships can benefit organizational decision making are discussed.     

灰色局势决策在投标联合体伙伴选择中应用

现代大型工程项目投标中出现了很多联合体投标的形式，在进行联合体投标时伙伴选择是一个重要的决策问题。针对联合体投标伙伴过程中决策因素多、信息量大等问题，应用灰色系统理论进行分析和确定，建立了数学模型，为决策提供了一个可行方便的决策方法。     

Shareholder Value, Real Options, and Innovation in Technology-Intensive Companies

We show how central concepts from technology and innovation management (TIM), sequential models of the New Product Development (NPD) process, and the valuation technique of 'real options' can be linked, to provide a valuation framework that can be used in the value-based management of technology-intensive companies.
We introduce a binomial option tree which incorporates the flexibility and the risks inherent in the NPD process into its evaluation in a theoretically correct way and is at the same time simple and easy to use. In this way, our options-based approach ties the valuation of hitech and life sciences companies closer to the underlying growth opportunities and incorporates much of the 'gut feel' of experienced industry practitioners into the valuation. As a consequence, the approach leads to more defensible valuations and allows powerful insights for the value-based management of technology-intensive companies.
In two numerical examples we demonstrate that the theoretically more sound option tree approach in practice can produce different valuations and lead to different decisions than a simple 'discounted cash flow (DCF) tree' approach and has therefore potential to improve managerial decision making. Finally, we describe a real life situation where our options-based approach was successfully applied in the valuation for the initial public offering of a biotech company.     

A Comparison of Decision Criteria for Capital Investment Decisions

Capital investment decisions, at least the quantitative portion, are usually based on one of several possible decision criteria. The analysis and calculations required to base the capital investment decision on one criterion only require a relatively small extension to allow the decision to be based, or at least compared, on several decision criteria. This paper analyzes seven capital investment decision criteria, including six objective and one subjective one, and illustrates how a typical capital investment problem can be analyzed on the basis of the seven decision criteria. Computer simulation is used to determine the outcomes of the hypothetical capital investment projects.     

Differences between industrial and consumer product managers

Marketing decision areas and general background characteristics of industrial and consumer product managers are examined in this article. A discriminant analysis identifies those marketing decision areas that separate industrial and consumer product managers. The position of industrial product manager was found to be more of a marketing coordinator while the consumer product manager was found to be a more active decision maker.     

企业家人力资本计量模型探讨

本文认为，企业家人力资本是企业价值的关键驱动因素，在对传统的企业家人力资本计量模型进行综评的基础上，提出计量企业家人力资本的期权综合模型方法，印先按照期权模型计量出企业家人力资本的内在价值，再按照模糊计量来衡量企业家人力资本价值发挥的效率，按照综合评价指标体系衡量企业家人力资本的业绩调整系数——“乘数”，借以相对较为完善地衡量企业家人力资本的实际价值。     

Knowledge inventories and managerial myopia

Managing knowledge inventories is the central issue posed by the knowledge‐based view of the firm. Knowledge inventory management involves acquiring, retaining, deploying, idling, and abandoning technologies. Because of future opportunities to switch technologies over time, managing knowledge inventories requires valuing flexibility. Real option theory presents normative conceptual frameworks and pricing formulas for valuing flexibility. These formulas assume managers consider the full time horizon of technologies as well as all available substituting and complementary technologies. This study considers the implications of violations of these assumptions (i.e., temporal and spatial myopia) for managers' technology investment decisions. Specifying decision criteria under alternative forms of myopia reveals possible sources and patterns of technology management decision errors. This study highlights the cognitive sources of path dependencies and organizational rigidities. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

聚乙烯醇产品的市场研究

对聚乙烯醇树脂产品进行了产业背景、供求态势、市场细分与评估以及竞争力分析等全面研究，为聚乙烯醇项目建设、产品方案规划与市场营销提供决策参考。     

Product type and the relative influence of buyers in commercial construction

Organizational purchasing is usually the product of collective decision making. While the seller's first contact with a prospective customer is with the purchasing agent, the purchasing agent is by no means the sole decision maker. The purpose of this study is to identify the relative influence of purchasing agents and other buyers in the commercial construction industry. Individual buyers and firms can also make use of the framework evolved to examine their own buying practices.     

Valuation of venture capital investments: empirical evidence

Using the valuation data of 421 US venture capital transactions and 176 initial public offerings, we test a simple binomial valuation model in modelling the risk‐return profiles of venture capital investments. We find that the model is consistent with the previous knowledge on the risk‐return profile of venture capital investments. The results also confirm the hypotheses that early‐stage ventures have higher implied risk and implied volatility of the returns than more established ones.
Additionally, we analyse the predictive power of the binomial pricing model and compare it to corresponding 'traditional' models that utilize risk‐adjusted rates of return. We construct one‐step ex post return forecasts for the sample ventures and compare the results to the actually realized returns. The findings indicate that the fit of the binomial model is better than the fit of the corresponding 'traditional' models.
The results imply that option‐based methods have empirical relevance in the pricing analysis of privately held companies and projects. Furthermore, practitioners can benefit from using these methods when analysing the risk‐return structure of private companies and R&D projects.     

基于价值网络的企业价值计量模式研究

企业生活在一个多维价值网络系统中,这一价值网络系统由企业外部的微观价值网络体系、产业价值网络体系和社会价值网络体系共同构成。多维价值网络体系促进了企业智力资本的积累与发展,导致企业无形价值边界逐步脱离有形价值边界,产生了企业的双重价值边界,提升了企业无形价值和整体价值。多维价值网络环境下的企业价值计量包括有形价值计量和无形价值计量,有形价值计量以测量企业物质财富的经济价值为目的,通常采用财务计价或财务估价模式,无形价值计量以测量企业智力资本的价值创造潜力为目的,通常计量、财务计价、财务估价、非财务价值计量、非财务价值估计等多种模式综合并用。