A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach

This study examines the usefulness of time-varying parameter techniques for constructing reliable transaction-based commercial price indices for metropolitan areas. Time-varying parameter techniques allow the implicit prices of differing quality characteristics to vary intertemporally, overcoming the potential bias imposed by holding implicit prices fixed and simply interpreting time dummy variables as in a conventional hedonic approach. This paper empirically investigates three time-varying parameter methods (Chained, Laspeyres, and Paasche) and considers the potential for sample selection bias. Precision measures are constructed to examine the reliability of the respective indices.     

Investment Project Valuation: A New Equity Perspective

We suggest a new approach to calculating a project's net present value, termed the displaced equity method. Based on a straightforward formula, it analyzes a project partially financed with debt from the perspective that every year the amount of outstanding debt displaces an equivalent amount of equity that otherwise would be tied up in the project. Although they represent distinct shareholders' perspectives, the displaced equity method and the equity residual method yield identical net present values and internal rates of return. Every year, the project's value calculated with the displaced equity method is equal to the sum of the project's debt and equity values. In practice, when the schedule of expected outstanding debt amounts is known, using the displaced equity method is an easy way to estimate the project's net present value.     

Loan Subsidy Valuation: An Alternative Approach

In a recent paper, Jennergren analyzed four loan subsidy valuation methods suggested in authoritative textbooks. He showed that the first three can be derived from a unique formula whose value depends on the nonsubsidized loan amount that is assumed to be replaced by the subsidized loan. When the WACC method is used, this debt replacement must implicitly take into account the target debt-to-value ratio set by the firm. In this article, we suggest an alternative approach that allows us to clearly incorporate the corresponding debt constraint and to determine the resulting adjustment to be made. This adjustment appears to be different from that recommended by Jennergren. More generally, we suggest an alternative view of the consistency of the methods.     

R and D Project Selection and Evaluation: A Microcomputer-Based Approach

This paper develops microcomputer-based R and D project selection and project evaluation models. The models use Lotus 1-2-3 as a vehicle to provide practical research management support suitable for a developing country. The models are readily adaptable for various R and D management applications.     

工期固定-资源均衡优化的新途径

本从衡量资源均衡的常用指标——方差值入手，寻找工期固定-资源均衡优化的新的判别式，提出利用时差逐步提前某些工作的最迟开始时间以达到削平资源高峰的方法，为工期固定-资源均衡的优化找到一条新的路径。     

Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment

Experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that transaction price feedback may bias valuation judgment. Among participating appraisers, evidence of asymmetrical response was found. The group receiving transaction feedback indicating that current judgments were "too low" responded with judgments in subsequent, unrelated valuations that were significantly higher than the group that received no feedback. The response from "too high" feedback was in the expected direction (lower value judgments) but was not significant. Additionally, valuation dispersion of around 10% revealed in these experiments is consistent with studies of valuation variability and may reflect an upper bound of typical commercial appraisal dispersion.     

A New Approach for Evaluation of Variance of Construction Project when no Existing Relevant Rate or Price

成本加利润原则已成为监理人确定“无适用或类似子目单价”的工程变更项目综合单价的主要原则,然而这种估价方法并未考虑承包商投标报价时自愿承担的风险,致使变更导致调价发生时承包商提出按照变更发生时市场价和定额价进行估价,从而将投标报价时承包商自愿承担的风险转移至业主方.通过对项目招标控制价和承包商投标报价的关系进行分析,提出量化承包人投标报价时承担风险的方法,即让利率的确定,并结合案例对“无适用或类似子目单价”的工程变更项目综合单价的确定方法进行了详细介绍.     

Renegotiation of Concession Contracts: A Theoretical Approach

We construct a regulation model in which renegotiation occurs due to the imperfect enforcement of concession contracts. This enables us to provide theoretical predictions for the impact, on the probability of renegotiation of a concession, of regulatory policy, institutional features, economic shocks and of several characteristics of the concession contracts themselves.     

Investment decisions in troubled times: A Bayesian approach applied to Brazilian firms

This study analyses the investment decision of 497 Brazilian firms during a period of unstable macroeconomic conditions. The role of financial constraints is considered in a Bayesian econometric model. We estimate three different models, and the results indicate the presence of financial restrictions, especially for capital-intensive firms. The recursive predictive density criterion indicates that the most preferred model is the one in which firm-specific effects are correlated with cash-flow. Financial restrictions are more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.     

Using Copula Functions in Bayesian Analysis: A Comparison of the Lognormal Conjugate

Bayesian techniques have been applied to analyze sequential investment decisions in the capital budgeting literature. This article introduces copula-based Bayesian analysis as an alternative to the traditional approach where conjugate relationships do not exist. Using a numerical example, we illustrate the steps involved in the copula-based Bayesian approach. Graphical techniques for selecting an appropriate copula are also discussed. The unique ability of copulas to model nonlinear dependence rationalizes the use of copula functions as an alternative technique.     

Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach

This paper uses an extensive and geographically dispersed sample of single-family fixed rate mortgages to assess the prepayment and default behavior of individual homeowners. We make use of Poisson regression to efficiently estimate the parameters of a proportional hazards model for prepayment and default decisions. Poisson regression for grouped survival data has several advantages over partial likelihood methods. First, when dealing with time-dependent covar-iates, it is considerably more efficient in terms of computations. Second, it is possible to estimate full-hazard models which include, for example, functions of time as well as multiple time scales (i.e., age of the loan and calendar time), in a much more straightforward manner than partial likelihood methods for un-grouped data. Third, Poisson regression can be used to estimate non-proportional hazards models such as additive excess risk specifications. Taken together, our data and estimation methodology allow us to obtain a better understanding of the economic factors underlying prepayment and default decisions.     

Market Power and/or Efficiency: A Structural Approach

This article separates oligopoly-power and cost-efficiency effects ofchanges in industrial concentration and assesses their impact on output prices in 32 food-processing industries. Empirical results indicate that although concentration inducescost efficiency in one-third of the industries, oligopoly-power effects either dominate cost efficiencyor reinforce inefficiency, resulting in higher output prices in most industries. The articlealso provides fresh econometric estimates of oligopoly power and economies of size for the industriesin question.     

Firms' Growth,Size and Age: A Nonparametric Approach

This paper offers empirical evidence of firm failurerates as well as the mean of the distribution ofrealized growth rates, distinguishing between thesample of non-failing firms and the sample of allfirms, failing and non-failing. Attention is directedat identifying a set of characteristics, in particularthe size and age of firms, systematically related tothe patterns of firm growth and exit, using a panel ofSpanish manufacturing firms. The two maincontributions of the paper are the use ofnonparametric techniques and the analysis of issuesignored in other studies like theregression-to-the-mean bias and the measurement oflearning effects. We find evidence that failure ratesand the mean growth rate of successful firms declinewith size and age. When failing firms are integrated,there are no significant differences in the meangrowth rate across the age and size of firms.Regression-to-the-mean does not prove to be asubstantial factor behind the negative relationshipbetween size and growth of surviving firms.     

差别化竞争战略与服务增强的内在机理

国内外许多研究者都观察到了制造企业中服务收入占营业收入的比重越来越高、服务的利润贡献越来越大，这一现象即“服务增强”。本文首先将产品界定为既包括有形实体，也包括无形服务的完全产品，然后构造了一个完全信息动态博弈模型来研究这一现象。我们发现，厂商实施服务延伸实体产品差别化的竞争战略，必然导致服务增强的结果，同时，增进厂商利润与消费者总剩余。这一结论，为我国企业通过服务差别化来谋求在全球市场上的可持续竞争优势提供了理论根据。     

Assessing the risks of service failures based on ripple effects: A Bayesian network approach

This study responds to the need for assessing risks of service failures by focusing on ripple effects. We propose a Bayesian network approach to assessing risks of service failures based on the depdendence relationships among individual service failures. To avoid conceptual misunderstanding and imprecise use in practice, the suggested approach is designed to be executed in three consecutive stages: modeling a Bayesian network; assessing the risks in terms of probabilities of service failures (PSFs) and impacts of service failures (ISFs); and developing a service failure assessment map. A case study of the outpatient consultation service is presented to show the feasibility of our method.     

质量责任管理法在装置检修中的试点

通过在油田集中处理站实施质量责任管理法试点,保证了在工艺、装置、设施、设备施工及检维修过程中各道工序的作业质量,为集中处理站的日常生产安全奠定了基础。阐述了质量责任管理法实施的过程和效果,提出了几点认识。