Interacting effects of uncertainties and institutional forces on information sharing in marketing channels

Marketing channel members in China face difficulties created by market uncertainty and opportunistic costs resulting from behavioral uncertainty, both of which undermine channel performance. In this article, we argue that channel members can use information sharing to maintain channel performance under uncertain circumstances. With empirical data from China, we develop and test a theoretical framework which explores the effects of market uncertainty and contractual commitment on information sharing and supplier operational performance. Moreover, we also find that regulatory protection moderates the relationship between market uncertainty and information sharing. Normative and cognitive protection moderates the relationship between contractual commitment and information sharing. Indeed, information sharing serves as a mediator between uncertainties and supplier operational performance. Consequently, Chinese channel managers are advised to increase the use of more information sharing to counter market and behavioral uncertainties in marketing channels.     

Evaluation of a mining project under the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties using real options valuation

Cash flows generated by mining projects tend to be volatile and are extensively influenced by exogenous variables, notably commodity prices and exchange rates. The traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method, which is normally used for economic feasibility studies and mining project evaluations, presents inconsistencies because the method fails to adequately address uncertainties and operational flexibilities and often ignores certain specific market conditions. Numerous studies have been carried out for mining project evaluations using the real options valuation (ROV) technique for assessing commodity price uncertainty, but there is no research on the combined effects of price and exchange rate uncertainties. Therefore, in order to assess the economic viability of a mining project more accurately, the commodity price and its inherent volatility, the exchange rate and its inherent volatility, and the correlation parameters between them have been incorporated into the model and used in the evaluation process. One of the interesting findings revealed in the study is that project values are overestimated if only commodity price uncertainty is considered in evaluating the project value instead of the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties. This new ROV technique will explore the opportunity to utilize an alternative methodology for approximating project values and to identify valuation opportunities to enhance economic gains or to mitigate economic losses, where the DCF valuation method does not.     

Strategic NPV: Real Options and Strategic Games under Different Information Structures

Research summary : Among the most difficult firm strategic choices is the trade‐off between making a long‐term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of uncertainty. To operationalize strategic management theory under demand, technological and competitive uncertainty, we develop a Strategic Net Present Value (NPV) framework that integrates real options and game theory to quantify value components and interactions at the interface between NPV, real options, and strategic games. Our approach results in new propositions clarifying the way learning‐experience conditions, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between wait‐and‐see flexibility and strategic commitment. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of the conditions where NPV, real options, or strategic thinking are more relevant. Managerial summary : This study develops and elucidates implementation of a new valuation construct, “Strategic Net Present Value (NPV),” that integrates real options and game theory to more accurately portray strategic decisions underlying management theory. Among the most difficult firm strategic choices in capital intensive industries, such as energy, mining, chip manufacturing, and infrastructure development, is the trade‐off between making a long‐term commitment or holding off on investment in the face of demand, technological, and competitive uncertainties. The study provides new insights on the way various conditions, such as learning‐experience effects, technological uncertainty, and proprietary information, interact to tilt the balance in the interplay between commitment and wait‐and‐see flexibility. As such, Strategic NPV adds to our understanding of when NPV, real options, or strategic thinking matter more critically for decision making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fuzzy Present Value Analysis Model For Evaluating Information System Projects

In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using present value is analyzed based on triangular fuzzy numbers. Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs, benefits, and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. In this study, we propose an approximate method of computing project present value using the concept of fuzzy modeling with special reference to information system projects. This proposed model has the potential of enhancing the project selection process by capturing a better economic picture of the project alternatives. The proposed methodology can also be used for other real-life projects with high degree of uncertainty and risk.     

Determining safety stocks for production planning in uncertain manufacturing

When computing production plans and available-to-promise statements, the randomness of flow times and yield rates are the two major sources of uncertainty. Considering both of these uncertainties, this study employs a simple formula for computing the standard deviation for cumulative good product output of a particular product type at a particular time. Using this standard deviation, the necessary safety stock for that product type at that time can be obtained. This study was motivated by semiconductor wafer manufacturing, which requires many process steps performed by highly unreliable equipment. Such an environment causes the means and the variances in flow times to be generally larger than those for other industries. It also makes yield rates uncertain. Thus, when making order quotations and calculating production plans, safety stocks must be used to guard against the uncertainties of the manufacturing processes to ensure on-time-delivery ratios and to provide better customer service.     

内蒙古珠拉金矿区外围找矿标志

珠拉金矿是具有较大找矿前景的热液-蚀变形金矿床。变质砂岩是本矿区的主要矿石类型。文中着重介绍珠拉金矿的地质背景、矿化特征、矿石类型以及矿床成因,并简要阐述了金矿的找矿标志。     

Top management's social capital and learning in new product development and its interaction with external uncertainties

This paper examines the effect of the elements of top management's social capital on exploratory and exploitative learning and on the outcomes of new product development (NPD), as well as the interaction effects of these elements with external uncertainties. In so doing, the study follows prior research that calls for a fine-grained analysis of how top management's social capital can positively affect NPD outcomes. Large-scale survey data (675 firms) from the United States, Germany, and Australia are used to develop and empirically validate a theoretical framework. As hypothesized, elements of top management's social capital have positive, but not identical, effects on exploitative and exploratory learning. In addition, the effects of structural social capital on learning, as well as the effects of learning on NPD outcomes, are significantly moderated by the interplay of technology uncertainty and demand uncertainty. The research concludes with implications for theory and practice.     

Consumer perceptions of best practice in food risk communication and management: Implications for risk analysis policy

As a consequence of recent food safety incidents, consumer trust in European food safety management has diminished. A risk governance framework that formally institutes stakeholder (including consumer) consultation and dialogue through a transparent and accountable process has been proposed, with due emphasis on risk communication. This paper delivers actionable policy recommendations based on consumer preferences for different approaches to food risk management. These results suggest that risk communication should be informed by knowledge of consumer risk perceptions and information needs, including individual differences in consumer preferences and requirements, and differences in these relating to socio-historical context associated with regulation. In addition, information about what is being done to identify, prevent and manage food risks needs to be communicated to consumers, together with consistent messages regarding preventative programs, enforcement systems, and scientific uncertainty and variability associated with risk assessments. Cross-cultural differences in consumer perception and information preferences suggest a national or regional strategy for food risk communication may be more effective than one applied at a pan-European level.     

Managing business-to-business relationships under conditions of employee attrition: A transparency approach

Client-contact employee attrition can negatively affect client-supplier relationships, a problem all the more obvious within the knowledge-intensive service industry in which the untimely loss of employees adversely affects client relationships. From the client's perspective, employee attrition increases uncertainty over the perceived quality of service and results in the loss of valuable tacit knowledge from the provider. Drawing on case study materials, this paper seeks to develop a framework for understanding how firms can successfully manage client relationships despite threats of employee attrition. This paper suggests that relationship transparency based on the active transfer of information, knowledge retention and sharing, the implementation of succession plans, and timely intervention by the management, can reduce clients' perceived uncertainty, thereby fortifying a trusted relationship with their provider. This study offers a transparency-based conceptual framework that contributes to the business-to-business relationship literature within the knowledge-intensive service industry and discusses managerial implications.     

Closing information asymmetries: A scale agnostic approach for exploring equity implications of broadband provision

A persistent challenge for telecommunications policy is the determination of broadband provision footprints in both space and time. In the United States, Form 477 data from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) provide a valuable snapshot of broadband provision at the block level, but there are often inconsistencies with the underlying data. These inconsistencies include overly-optimistic self-reports from providers, requirements to report broadband provision within inflexible census administrative units, and a modest temporal reporting schedule (biannual) with a significant, one year temporal lag. These uncertainties are often compounded by telecommunications providers refusing to disclose any information on service footprints, geographic expansion plans or the characteristics of populations served by broadband. This type of obfuscation drastically limits the ability of policy analysts to evaluate outcomes (both positive and negative) associated with service provision and the digital divide, more generally. With the recent entry of Google Fiber to several metropolitan markets in the United States, many of the broadband reporting and evaluation challenges have re-emerged. The purpose of this paper is to leverage basic data mining techniques, a scale agnostic geographic framework and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), to uncover the geographic intricacies of Google Fiber (Fiber) service for both Provo, Utah and Austin, Texas and compare them to Form 477 reports. In addition, we use basic statistical approaches to explore issues of broadband access and equity, accounting for the differences in socio-economic and demographic status of the populace served/not served for both cities, as well as basic pricing within and between communities.     

New Product Development Speed: Too Much of a Good Thing?

New product development (NPD) speed has become increasingly important for managing innovation in fast‐changing business environments due to continuous reduction in the product life cycle time and increase in competition from technological advancements and globalization. While the existing literature has not produced consistent results regarding the relationship between speed and success for NPD projects, many scholars and practitioners assert that increasing NPD speed is virtually always important to NPD success. The purpose of this paper is to examine the implicit assumption that faster is better as it relates to new product success (NPS). From the perspectives of time‐compression diseconomies and absorptive capacity, the authors question the assumption that speed has a linear relationship with success. The authors further argue that time‐compression diseconomies depend on levels of uncertainty involved in NPD projects. Using survey data of 471 NPD projects, the hypotheses were tested by hierarchical regression analysis and subgroup polynomial regression. The results of this study indicate that NPD speed has a curvilinear relationship with NPS, and the nature of the speed–success relationship varies, depending on type and level of uncertainty. When turbulence or technological newness is high, the relationship is curvilinear, but when uncertainties are low, the relationship is linear. In contrast, the results of this study suggest a curvilinear relationship under conditions of low market newness but not when market newness is high. The present paper asserts that time‐compression diseconomies and absorptive capacity are important theoretical constructs in understanding speed in NPD. The different impact of market newness and market turbulence on NPD speed supports the distinction of newness and turbulence as two different sources of uncertainty. Discussion focuses on the implications of NPD speed under the different conditions of uncertainty. NPD teams need to pursue NPD speed as a critical strategy, but it is necessary to analyze the source and degree of uncertainty about projects before a time‐based strategy is selected. In order to address the challenges of high uncertainty, a firm needs to probe, learn, and iterate fast. In particular, NPD teams need to distinguish between the different requirements for new products in emerging and new markets, and those in fast‐changing markets. Moreover, NPD teams need to balance how fast they need to go with how fast they can go by considering team absorptive capacity and customer absorptive capacity.     

An organizational perspective on inventory control: Theory and a case study

Inventory control is a well-covered area in literature. Nowadays, many concepts and techniques are available for effectively controlling inventories. Eminent examples are stochastic models to determine order quantities, techniques for forecasting demand and different kinds of ABC analysis. Remarkably enough, the theoretical backgrounds of these concepts and techniques show a great deal of similarity: they all stem from the field of operations management and operations research. Despite the value of the available concepts, such a one-sided approach has its limitations in practice. In this article it is argued that it is important to take a broader view when dealing with practical inventory control problems. First of all, an organizational perspective on inventory control is developed. The main idea behind this perspective is the importance of the organizational context of inventories. This means that in addition to the traditional points for attention, such as order quantities and replenishment strategies, other aspects need attention as well. They are, for example, the allocation of responsibilities and authorities regarding inventory management, the quality of inventory information and the relevant decision-making processes. These contextual factors as well as the traditional factors are mapped out and integrated into a framework to be used in solving practical inventory control problems. One of the main features of the framework is that it is useful in both analyzing and redesigning an inventory situation. Secondly, this article describes the results of a case study regarding the application of the organizational perspective to a practical inventory control problem. The central issue of the case study is the spare parts inventory of a missionary aviation organization in Africa. The case study shows that the organizational perspective on inventory control is very helpful in dealing with inventory control problems. It is illustrated that taking into account the organizational context of inventories, especially the responsibilities and authorities of the persons concerned, is a necessity to accurately understand inventory control problems. In addition, it is illustrated that the organizational perspective leads to a more appropriate redesign.     

Revenue maximizing with return policy when buyers have uncertain valuations

This paper examines the optimal mechanism design problem when buyers have uncertain valuations. This uncertainty can only be resolved after the actual transactions take place and upon incurring significant post-purchase cost. We focus on two different settings regarding how the seller values a returned object (salvage value). We first study the case where the salvage value is exogenously determined. We find that the revenue maximizing mechanism is deterministic and “separable”. We illustrate that the optimal revenue can be implemented by a mechanism with a “no-questions-asked” return policy. In addition, we show that “linear return policies” are suboptimal when the hazard rates of initial estimates are monotone. We next examine the case where the salvage value is endogenously determined. We demonstrate that “separability” no longer holds and the “recall” of buyers is necessary in the optimal mechanism.     

Auction cartels and the absence of efficient communication

This paper examines the feasibility of collusive mechanisms in single-unit auctions. A model is constructed with private and common value information asymmetry and continuous type space. We show that an incentive compatible bid coordination mechanism (BCM) does not exist if common value uncertainty is present. This result contradicts actual antitrust cases, where common effects or resale opportunities created uncertainty about valuations, but a price-fixing cartel was formed. We solve the puzzle by relaxing the assumption that all bidder types truthfully reveal their private information. The introduced Bayesian bid coordination mechanism (BBCM) exists if the main source of information asymmetry is private value. In that case, a designated ring member can signal high valuation and suppress competition. Our results demonstrate the rationale behind cartel mechanisms with pre-auction knockouts.     

Cash flow at risk valuation of mining project using Monte Carlo simulations with stochastic processes calibrated on historical data

Mining projects are subject to multiple sources of market uncertainties such as metal price, exchange rates, and their volatilities. Assessing a mining project's exposure to market risk usually requires Monte Carlo simulations to capture a range of probable outcomes. The probability of a major loss is extracted from the probability density function of simulated prices at a given time into the future. This article proposes an approach to calibrate the stochastic process to be used in Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations are then used for measuring the cash flow at risk of a mining project. To assess the performance of the proposed approach, a case study is conducted on a mining project. The results show that the calibration approach is robust and apt at fitting various stochastic processes to historical observations.     

华亭煤矿综放工作面强矿压预警技术综合研究及应用

针对华亭煤矿综放工作面回采期间强矿压显现的复杂性及单一监测预警技术的缺陷性,结合矿井使用的微震、声发射及钻屑监测预警技术,从多参量耦合信息的角度更加深入研究强矿压显现的前兆信息,总结出了微震预测指标与声发射能量参量、微震平均能量及次数与钻屑平均值之间的耦合特征,将其应用于强矿压的预测预报,有效提高了预测预报准确率,为强矿压防治工作提供准确的指导信息。     

A project-based approach to competitive analysis

While comprehensive, ongoing competitive intelligence systems generate valuable input for broad strategic decisions, they often fail to provide the specific actionable information needed by managers operating in a project-oriented environment. This paper proposes a project-based framework for competitive analysis. The framework was developed from field reseach involving 16 projects. A comparison of project-based and comprehensive competitive analysis systems is made to illustrate their differences. A case example from field research is utilized to illustrate concepts central to this approach and its practical utility. A set of guidelines regarding pitfalls to avoid in project-based competitive analysis is presented.     

浅议我国煤矿区生态旅游资源

阐述了矿山生态旅游资源的概念,按照开采方式和矿山服务期对其进行了分类,分析了不同类型资源的特点以及我国煤矿区生态旅游资源的开发现状,最后,对未来的发展提出了具体建议。     

贵州省玉屏侗族自治县铁观洞矿区水泥用石灰岩矿的水文环境条件及矿体特征

贵州省玉屏侗族自治县铁观洞矿区水泥用石灰岩矿地处玉屏侗族自治县城的田坪镇铁观洞,是很重要的水泥用石灰岩产区。在前人地质调查的基础上,我们进行了一系列工作,查明了矿体赋存层位、产出形态、规模、产状及空间位置、矿石类型及矿石质量情况,来揭示矿体特征和分布规律。     

Motivations for selecting cross-border e-commerce as a foreign market entry mode

This article is an in-depth case study examining a foreign firm deploying Cross-border E-commerce as an entry mode to the Chinese market, integrating services provided by a major technology provider and a leading marketplace platform. Selecting which foreign market entry mode is an important internationalization strategic decision of firms and could have a considerable impact on the firm's performance. The CBEC mode emerges as a plausible choice: e-commerce has grown rapidly in many markets, particularly in China. Additionally, foreign firms face high transaction costs due to unfamiliar consumer behavior and institutional barriers. It is especially difficult for SMEs.This study deploys transaction cost theory as the underpinning framework to explain the motivations for selecting a CBEC entry mode. The findings suggest that CBEC could reduce uncertainties and opportunistic behaviors, while increasing trust. Foreign firms could lower their asset investment in physical shops, staff requirements and training, logistics and warehousing: these supports are provided by marketplace platforms. This new entry mode also takes advantage of the involvement and the dependency of intermediaries. In addition to providing market knowledge, technology providers help to build trust and reduce risks and thereby transaction costs, despite the high transaction frequency of e-commerce.