Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates

This article presents a real options model that fits managerial cash flow estimates (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic projections) to a continuous geometric Brownian motion (GBM) cash flow process with changing growth and volatility parameters. The cash flows and the value of a project are correlated to a traded asset, so the real option is priced under the risk-neutral measure with a closed-form solution. The analysis is extended to a sequential compound call option for investments over multiple periods. If the project is correlated to the market, then some of the risk may be mitigated by a delta-hedging strategy. A numerical example shows that the effect of the correlated asset on the real option value is significant, and the relationship between the volatility of the project and the real option value is not analogous to the typical relationship found in financial option pricing. Integrating the expertise and industry knowledge of management, this approach makes possible a more rigorous estimation of model inputs for real option pricing.     

Paying attention to real options

The strategy literature is increasingly focused on the need to create dynamic capabilities to respond with innovative product offerings in 'hypercompetitive' environments. The real options approach offers hope for managers facing such threatening environments by highlighting methods to hold options on a variety of possible future states, thereby reducing risk without bearing all the costs. However, extant real options literature, stemming from rational-based financial assumptions, does not consider attention as a limited resource. Real options are valued on the assumption that management can exploit the flexibility inherent in projects, and so require management attention to obtain their full theoretical value. This paper brings attentional constraints to bear on the real options framework and describes a conceptual framework that illustrates the real option value realization process.     

商业地产投资的实物期权特性及应用框架研究

商业地产开发投资中存在投资的不可逆性、外部环境的不确定性和决策的灵活性,因而具有实物期权特性。从确定要解决的问题、分析不确定性的来源、鉴别关键的不确定性因素、识别实物期权类型、构建期权定价模型、计算项目价值、检查计算结果和重新设计8个方面,构建了商业地产投资决策的实物期权分析框架。     

Project valuation in the pharmaceutical industry: a comparison of least‐squares Monte Carlo real option valuation and conventional approaches

Least‐squares Monte Carlo simulation (LSM) is a promising new technique for valuing real options that has received little or no attention in the pharmaceutical industry. This study demonstrates that LSM can handle complex valuation situations with multiple uncertainties and compounded American‐type options. The limited application of real option valuation (ROV) in the pharmaceutical industry is remarkable, given the importance of accurate project valuation in an industry that requires large investments in high‐risk projects with long pay‐back periods, which is furthermore suffering from ever‐increasing development costs and shrinking profit margins. The LSM model developed in this study is constructed as an extension of a discounted cash flow model that should be familiar to economists active in the pharmaceutical industry. A number of pharmaceutical projects have been evaluated using LSM ROV, binominal real option valuation and expected net present value techniques. The different results yielded by these methods are explained in terms of differences in risking assumptions and ability to capture the value of flexibility. The analysis provides a framework to introduce the basic concepts of real option pricing to a non‐specialist audience. The LSM model illustrates the potential for real‐life commercial assessment as the versatility of the technique allows for an easy customisation to specific business problems.     

A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHY NPV UNDERVALUES MANAGERIAL FLEXIBILITY

The Real Options paradigm addresses the valuation of managerial flexibility in capital budgeting. Despite the great strides achieved by researchers in this field, many financial analysts have chosen not to adopt this new paradigm due to a lack of comfort with the approach and the mathematical complexity of the valuation models. This article shows how some projects with real options can be valued using simple and familiar tools-discounting expected cash flows after adjusting the discount rate. Unless the discount rate is adjusted to account for the impact of real options on risk, a traditional net present value (NPV) analysis misses the value of flexibility. By narrowing the gulf between Real Options analysis and more familiar tools, the weighted average discount rate (WADR) approach introduced in this paper may help novices better understand die Real Options paradigm, which subsequently may gain the wider acceptance it deserves. Though the WADR approach is practical only for simple real options, comfort with the approach may encourage analysts to pursue more advanced and robust real option valuation techniques for more complex applications.     

Valuation of Learning Options in Software Development Under Private and Market Risk

Commercial software development is an inherently uncertain activity. Private risk is high, schedule and cost overruns are common, and market success is elusive. Such circumstances call for a disciplined project evaluation approach. This paper addresses the use of market and earned value management data in assessing the economic value of commercial software development projects that are simultaneously subject to schedule, development cost, and market risk. The assessment is based on real options analysis, a financial valuation technique that can tackle dynamic investment decisions under uncertainty. The paper demonstrates the application of real options analysis to a development scenario that consists of two consecutive stages: a mandatory prototyping stage and an optional full-development stage. The full-development stage is undertaken only if the prototype is successful and the market outlook is sufficiently positive at the end of the prototyping stage, thus giving the full-development stage the flavor of an option. The project's staged design increases its value. Real options analyses capture the extra value due to optionality.     

Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments

Real options reasoning emphasizes the strategic value of making flexible investments in a turbulent environment. Employees' investments in specific human capital are often critical to the success of a real option project, but the very flexibility that allows a firm to change course in response to new information also affects employees' incentives to make such specific human capital investments. We develop a model of real option investment that explicitly incorporates the role of employee incentives. The model suggests that the effect of investing in a real option project on employee incentives may be positive, further increasing the value of the project, or negative, sometimes more than offsetting the benefit of flexibility and resulting in reduced project value. Therefore, firms and managers should take into consideration the role of employee incentives when applying real options logic to investment decision making. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A REAL OPTIONS DESIGN FOR PRODUCT OUTSOURCING

Product outsourcing is recognized as a way to gain flexibility for competitive advantage. We formulate the outsourcing problem using real options. We develop a financial model to assess the option value of product outsourcing. Specifically, we consider a three state-variable problem and use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the value of the option. This valuation gives decision makers a way to choose the appropriate outsourcing strategy based on an integrated view of the market dynamics. A case example from the apparel manufacturing industry is used to demonstrate the application of real options to value outsourcing flexibility. We show that the inability of classical net present value methods to address dynamics in the market condition leads to an undervaluing of the outsourcing strategy. Numerical results and sensitivity analysis show how the real options approach can be used to give a better view of the long-term value of outsourcing.     

The Impact of Volatility on Firms Holding Growth Options

“Abuses of real option valuation were partly behind the ramping and subsequent deramping of the 2000 internet techno bubble. No one ever got to eat the free lunch these real option 'theorists' promised. No one ever will; no one ever could.” (Mayor 2001, 53) Growth options contribute to over 95% of the market value of Internet stocks such as Amazon.com, America Online, and eBay. Finance theory often promotes market volatility as being desirable for investors holding financial options. Is volatility also desirable for firms holding growth options? While many argue that it is, this paper presents a simple example illustrating that increasing volatility can destroy growth option value, especially for firms holding “quality” growth options.     

A Range-Based Finite Difference Approach to Valuing Options in Markov Switching Regimes*

Recognizing the inflexibility inherent in standard capital budgeting analysis, recent research has provided new insights using a real options framework. This paper uses the explicit finite difference approach to value real options. However, instead of assuming a constant return and volatility term, we assume that these variables are sensitive to changes in the economic environment. Accordingly, we adapt our approach to incorporate a Markov switching feature. Further, we recognize that some of the modeling assumptions can be violated in a practical application. Therefore, we recommend using range based estimates of the real option value, as opposed to a point estimate.     

Analyzing operational real options in metal mining investments with a system dynamic model

This article presents a detailed system dynamic (SD) model of a metal mining investment that is usable in ex-ante profitability and operations management analysis. We show how the SD model can be used to analyze the profitability effect of three operational real options: the option to temporarily close production, the option to abandon production, and the option to increase production through cutoff grade change. The SD model allows for intuitive modeling of the multiple interactive real options and arriving at results that are difficult, or impossible, to reach with commonly used spreadsheet software. We also analyze the effect of mining project debt ratio to the project value and show that correctly choosing the debt ratio affects project profitability. The effect on the project value of using three different future metal price scenarios with two different stochastic processes is illustrated to highlight the importance of correct process selection in modeling future metal price paths. A realistic case of a high-cost nickel (Ni) metal mine is used as a basis for the presented numerical illustration of the model.     

MAKING USE OF REAL OPTIONS SIMPLE: AN OVERVIEW AND APPLICATIONS IN FLEXIBLE/MODULAR DECISION MAKING

This article focuses on how the use of real options can be made simple, providing an overview of the power of flexible and modular decision making and its use in various applications across industries. After common real options are discussed through a comprehensive example, the article reviews the key lessons and implications of real options thinking for flexible decision making. It then proceeds to propose a modular problem structuring approach that allows simplifying of complex real option problems by decomposing them into a few basic building-block option types (reviewed) connected by some basic decision operators. The resulting problem-structuring option map is depicted in a range of illustrative applications in various industries. Past areas of application of real options as well as research challenges ahead are also discussed.     

Making real options work for practitioners: a generic model for valuing R&D projects

We propose a generic valuation framework for the appraisal of R&D projects based on real option theory. The added value of this approach is the presentation of a model that was implemented in a manner that allows corporate decision makers to use real options in an intuitive and standardized way. The project valuation procedure is separated into three main phases: project modeling, data and input collection, and result generation and analysis. The project model represents the structure of the real world R&D project with its investments, expected results, and decisions that need to be taken conditionally on the outcomes of research activities. The project model is represented in the form of a decision tree, where different research results or taken decisions lead to new branches. In this way, every possible situation the project can pass through can be represented. Uncertainties are separated into market uncertainties (e.g., market prices) and project specific, private uncertainties (e.g. uncertainty of research results). For both uncertainties, event trees are constructed which are then combined and merged with the above mentioned decision tree in order to represent the value evolution of the R&D project under given decisions and uncertainties. For every possible state of the project the real option value is calculated. By creating multidimensional trees, a multitude of decision steps and various kinds of real options (e.g., continue, expansion, switch, abandonment) can be modeled. The calculation complexity for the decision trees is given. From the tree structure we can calculate the real option value of starting an R&D project, i.e., the value of undertaking the first investment and thus acquiring the subsequent decision opportunities given by the completion of the first research effort. Furthermore, the optimal exercise strategy is derived from the decision tree. The exercise strategy gives the manager the possibility to have an a priori overview of where an R&D project may lead to, which decisions need to be taken in which circumstances, and when the project needs to be stopped in order not to generate losses. In an in‐depth case study we use an illustrative R&D project to set up and discuss the three phases of project modeling in the real options framework: building the multidimensional decision tree, input generation, and calculation of the real option value as well as the optimal strategy for the R&D project.     

Variance-enhancing corporate entrepreneurship under deregulation: An option portfolio approach

The current study draws upon the real option portfolio theory to examine the relationship between deregulation and corporate entrepreneurship. We propose that a firm could respond to deregulation with variance-enhancing corporate entrepreneurial activities (CEAs), which increase the portfolio value of real options to exploit the upside opportunities and constrain the downside loss. We develop two dimensions of CEAs—frequency and diversity—to capture the value of the option portfolio, and we propose that these two dimensions contribute to a company’s long-term equity return and innovation performance. We test these arguments with 526 Chinese listed firms in five innovative industries from 2001 to 2005, and we find significant support for our hypotheses. Our empirical findings and the option portfolio approach carry important implications for entrepreneurship theory and policy. The CEA portfolio could be a useful tool to configure and allocate strategic investments proactively.     

Entry in the presence of dueling options

This paper investigates the influence of industry uncertainty on the decision by established firms to enter a new industry. Specifically, we examine the tension between the option to defer , which discourages entry in the presence of uncertainty, and the option to grow , which may encourage entry in the presence of uncertainty when there are early mover advantages. Empirical analysis on data from a broad array of industries revealed that the effect of uncertainty on entry is not monotonic. Our findings are the first to find support for the nonmonotonic effect of uncertainty that has only recently emerged in theoretical treatments of real options theory, and amplify the importance of considering both the option to defer and the option to grow when contemplating entry. Furthermore, we found evidence that the relationship between uncertainty and entry is moderated by: (a) irreversibility, which influences the value of the option to defer; (b) the total value of growth opportunities; and (c) early mover advantages, which magnify the value of growth options. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

经理人股票期权价值的理论及应用

股票期权激励的研究和实践中广泛应用布莱克——斯科尔斯模型进行股票期权的公允价值计价,然而对经理人而言的股票期权价值还要考虑经理人的风险偏好、财富的多元化程度等因素的影响。经理人期权价值不等于公司期权成本的基本理论可以解决及解释在股票期权实践中的一些关键性问题,如期权激励有效性的衡量、激励期权的风险溢价、最优行权价的确定、行权时间的确定。该理论的应用对我国上市公司股权激励的实施也有重要启示。     

Valuation of R&D real American sequential exchange options

Valuation of R&D real American sequential exchange options requires specifying the pattern of R&D expenditures and the stochastic process of the eventual R&D project. We model the stages of R&D expense and then the ultimate discovery (and the development cost for the discovery) using real sequential (compound) exchange option models. We study E_Commerce R&D, so the timing is relatively short‐term, with initial R&D, a second phase of R&D, and a final development phase, when the project values are realized. We use proxies from the financial markets for expected project value and cost volatilities (and correlation). Then the real option valuation is based on an approximate American sequential exchange option.     

Investment decisions in the wireless industry applying real options

The wireless industry is one of the most capital intensive high-technology industries. This paper applies real options techniques to estimate investments under uncertainty in two new ventures: (a) deferral of the expansion from 2.5G to 3G networks; and (b) expansion of a 2.5G network using Wi-Fi as an alternative technology. The cases are examined and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively, using realistic assumptions and parameters. Investment cost, number of subscribers, pricing of services, and risk are at the core of investment decision processing. In both cases, sensitivity analysis of the value of the (real) option considering the above key parameters was conducted, to extrapolate useful findings that should be taken into consideration by the decision makers in wireless companies.