The Real Estate Pricing Puzzle

The state-of-the-art with respect to pricing real estate is similar to that with respect to pricing securities just prior to the development of the CAPM. Reading the entrails of real estate markets, however, has proven a formidable task, and the problem is not limited to inadequate data. Perhaps the most important lesson to date is that available pricing models are not up to the task.     

基础设施PPP项目实物期权界定与分析

PPP项目自身特点决定了项目运作过程中需要更为弹性的决策管理方法。实物期权方法更加重视弹性决策的价值问题,它可以用来对由未来变化决定的项目、不确定性大的项目以及需要战略修正的项目等进行评价。在PPP项目运作程序分析的基础上,分阶段界定了PPP项目的实物期权类型和实物期权的拥有人;并且从PPP项目全寿命期的角度认为所有参与者拥有的是一个非常复杂的多重复合期权,给出了PPP项目全寿命期实物期权分析路径图,以帮助管理者在项目运作过程中进行弹性决策。本研究是PPP项目价值评估的基础工作,同时也是PPP项目全寿命期风险管理的有力工具。使得实物期权在PPP项目实践中更具操作性。     

A Simple Search and Bargaining Model of Real Estate Markets

This paper examines the impact of brokers on buyers' and sellers' search behavior and on the transaction prices in real estate markets. It is shown that the seller and the buyer search less intensively if the house is listed with a broker. The seller gets a higher price when he employs a broker, but the increase in price is smaller than the commission fee. More specifically, the portion of the commission covered by the increase in price is directly related to the bargaining powers of the buyer and the seller. In the special case where the price is determined according to the Nash bargaining solution, the increase in price is shown to be half of the commission fee. It is also shown that an increase in the commission rate increases the equilibrium price but decreases the equilibrium search intensities.     

Equilibrium of Housing and Real Estate Brokerage Markets Under Uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the real estate brokerage and housing markets with imperfect information. The paper considers general equilibrium in these markets with and without a multiple listing service. Input prices are found to affect the equilibrium housing price, brokerage commission, and split factor. The introduction of a multiple listing service is found to have several important effects. The MLS causes housing value to increase, but its effect on the commission rate is indeterminate. Contrary to the results of another paper, MLS brokers, on average, will likely undertake more search for both buyers and listings than will a non-MLS broker. The primary reasons are related to the greater efficiency of search in the MLS context.     

Real Option for Urban Rapid Rail Transit PPP Project

根据北京地铁4号线PPP项目遇到的实际问题构建模型,将实物期权理论引入解决车站停车场建设规模决策的问题.通过设计Excel表计算引入实物期权后不同方案的期望NPV,既解决了一般期权定价困难的问题,又将期权理论与PPP项目紧密结合,发现实物期权对于PPP项目决策过程的优化起到了非常明显的作用.特别是处理不确定性给PPP项目的谈判、决策、执行过程造成困难时,实物期权能够发挥更大的作用,可以作为决策者改善决策合理性的手段,也可以为公私双方化解核心矛盾取得一致意见提供有效帮助.     

企业内部市场定价:基于行为的理论模型

本文从行为的视角探讨内部市场定价问题。根据内部市场主体之间的合作、竞争行为提出并界定了内部市场结构的概念，将内部市场划分为简单型、合作主导型、竞争主导型、复合型四种结构类型；通过分析企业战略、内部定价对内部市场主体之间合作、竞争行为的影响，得出了企业战略决定内部市场结构应然、内部定价调节内部市场结构实然的结论：以内部市场结构的实然与应然相一致为原则．构建了企业内部市场定价的理论模型，阐述了在各种内部市场结构应然要求下的内部定价方法、决策权安排、绩效考核标准和激励机制等。     

The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework

In this study, we present a simple analytic framework that divides the real estate market into two markets: the market for real estate space and the market for real estate assets. After describing the size and character of flows and stocks in the U.S. real estate market, we use our framework to demonstrate the important connections between the space and asset markets. We illustrate how these real estate markets are affected by the nation's macroeconomy and financial markets, tracing out the impacts resulting from various exogenous shocks on rents, asset prices, construction and the stock of real estate.     

Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets

An alternative approach to test whether the real estate and stock markets are cointegrated is presented. A nonlinear test, which allows for a stochastic trend term as opposed to a deterministic drift term, is developed. The results of the nonlinear model are compared to the results obtained using conventional cointegration tests. The cointegration results support the view that the real estate and stock markets are segmented, whereas the nonlinear model supports the view that the markets are fractionally integrated. There is a nonlinear relationship between the stock and real estate markets, but movement of the real estate market towards the stock market is slow and divergence between the two markets can be prolonged.     

Real Estate and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Macrovariables vs. Derived Factors

Two empirical models are used to implement the arbitrage pricing theory: the factor loading model (FLM) and the macrovariable model (MVM). This study compares the ability of these two models to explain real estate returns using equity REIT returns as a proxy. Two tests are performed: a comparison of crosssectional adjusted-R2's and the Davidson and Mackinnon test. The results show that while the two models perform equally well during the period 1974–1979, the MVM outperforms the FLM over the periods 1980–1985 and 1986–1991. In addition, both models suggest superior financial performance for EREITs relative to other investments in the market during the period 1980–1985.     

Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza–Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25–50% of the sample lies in the positive response region.     

模糊实物期权方法在PPP项目价值评估中的应用

在投资、建设、运营和移交的过程中,PPP项目价值是利益各方关注的首要问题.在PPP项目全寿命期周期内,市场环境、政策以及决策者本身带来的不确定性都可能影响项目的价值,此类价值很难通过传统的评价方法计算,而需要借助实物期权的思想来获得.本文在相关研究的基础上,提出了基于模糊实物期权的PPP项目价值评估一般步骤:资料收集与整理、项目价值分析、实物期权界定与分析、项目价值计算、敏感性分析、得出结论.然后,推导出模糊实物期权价值计算模型,并应用于香港迪斯尼乐园二期项目实物期权价值评估,得出项目价值范围.最后对模型进行讨论,结果分析表明该项目价值受资产现值影响最大,建设、运营成本和建设时间次之.     

Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

This paper develops a methodology to identify asset price response to news in the framework of the Campbell–Shiller log-linear present-value equation. We further show that a slow price adjustment in real estate markets not only induces a high serial autocorrelation in excess returns, but also dampens the return volatility and the correlation with excess returns in other asset markets. Using Hong Kong real estate and stock market data, we find that the quarterly real estate price assimilates only about half the effect of market news, whereas the quarterly stock price incorporates the news fully. Our analysis identifies a cumulative price adjustment that recovers lost information in real estate returns due to market inefficiency and thereby restores the real estate return volatility and the correlation between real estate and stock markets.     

The Integration of Mortgage Markets and Capital Markets

In this paper, we develop a model to predict the impact of deregulation in the form of relaxing interest rate control on the integration between the mortgage credit market and the general credit market. The model is tested through the examination of the long-term Granger-like equilibrium relationship between mortgage interest rates and general interest rates in the pre-1980 regulated vs. the post-1980 deregulated periods. It is shown that the level of regulation, in the form of targeting general interest rate levels, contributes to the segmentation of the mortgage market from the capital market. To test this model, we compare the relationship between mortgage interest rates and general interest rates around 1980 where major control on interest rate levels in capital markets was lifted. Using Engle and Granger's procedure to overcome the estimation problem from nonstationarity in the interest rate series, we are able to find that the two interest rates were cointegrated after 1980 but not before. More importantly, it appears that the two markets were already integrated before the full development of the secondary mortgage markets between 1984 and 1987. Therefore, we conclude that the bulk of the integration between the mortgage and capital markets was completed as a result of the removal of interest rate controls around 1980, in contrast with previous studies that find integration occurred during the mid-1980s primarily as a result of the rapid development of the secondary mortgage markets.     

Structure and Profitability in Banking Markets

We use the structure-performance model and regression analysis to investigate a number of analytical issues that often arise in evaluating competition in connection with bank mergers and that are generally relevant to mergers in other industries. Perhaps our most consistent and strongest finding is that the local market HHI is positively and significantly related to profitability. We also find that the number of organizations and the level of recent deposit growth may provide some additional information on the level of competition. Finally, several variables including market size, the number of large banking firms, deposits per office, and resident migration rates exhibit similar relationships to profitability in the bivariate analysis, suggesting that there may be some characteristic associated with market size, density, or attractiveness that is important for competition.     

产品市场与金融市场的战略互动与经济增长

产品市场与金融市场作为信息集散和企业监控机制在功能上具有一定的替代性；同时，当事人在两个市场上的战略行动又会产生溢出效应，从而形成两个市场间的战略互补关系。两市场间的这种相互作用客观上弱化了各自的协调失灵问题。进一步引入不确定性，发现当事人知识的差异性也会导致专业分工，从而刺激具有不同专业知识的人采取有溢出效应的战略行动，结果导致了两市场之间的战略互补关系。这种不确定性引发的两市场战略互补对经济增长有重要影响，并且其中也有乘数效应。     

谁让思科难以安眠

在中国,是谁让网络巨人思科寝食难安？是2003年11月才成立的杭州华三通信技术有限公司（以下简称H3C）。在不到6年的时间里,H3C的营业额从6亿元（2003年）增长到了近100亿元（2008年）,并且成为国内市场上以太网交换机、企业级路由器、IP存储领域排名第一的企业。     

Occupational and Internal Labor Markets in Japan

The distinction between internal and occupational labor markets requires the development of informative indicators that go beyond standard measures such as firm size, which are too vague. This article develops an alternative measure, based on the comparison between firm-specific and occupation-specific tenure, and applies it to Japanese occupational data. We believe that the proposed measure is useful not only in classifying different occupations according to the degree of labor market internalization but also in documenting changes over time in job definition, "reengineering" of the corporation, and the like.     

Entry in Local Telecommunication Markets

In this paper, we explore the determinants of recent entry into local exchange service, and the role that regulatory policies have had in aiding this policy objective. Our results suggest that the 1996 Telecommunications Act did lead to some entry, but that strategic non-price behavior by incumbents may have offset this impact to some extent. We also find that regulatory policies and market fundamentals play an important role in determining entry. Clearly, market size (measured in various ways) is an important determinant of entry, while there is empirical support for the role of more flexible regulatory mechanisms in promoting new entry.     

应用工程量清单计价遇到的实际问题及对策

对当前实际应用工程量清单计价方式所存在的问题进行了分析研究,提出了解决这些问题的对策措施。