Balancing Development Costs and Sales to Optimize the Development Time of Product Line Additions*

Development teams often use mental models to simplify development time decision making because a comprehensive empirical assessment of the trade‐offs across the metrics of development time, development costs, proficiency in market‐entry timing, and new product sales is simply not feasible. Surprisingly, these mental models have not been studied in prior research on the trade‐offs among the aforementioned metrics. These mental models are important to consider, however, because they define reality, specify what team members attend to, and guide their decision making. As such, these models influence how development teams make trade‐offs across the four metrics to try to optimize new product profitability. Teams with such an objective should manage to a development time that minimizes development costs and to a proficient market‐entry timing that maximizes new product sales. Yet many teams use mental models for development time decision making that focus either just on development costs or on proficiency in market‐entry timing. This survey‐based study uses data from 115 completed NPD projects, all product line additions from manufacturers in The Netherlands, to demonstrate that there is a cost to simplifying decision making. Making development time decisions without taking into account the contingency between development time and proficiency in market‐entry timing can be misleading, and using either a sales‐maximization or a cost‐minimization simplified decision‐making model may result in a cost penalty or a sales loss. The results from this study show that the development time that maximizes new product profitability is longer than the time that maximizes new product sales and is shorter than the development time that minimizes development costs. Furthermore, the results reveal that the cost penalty of sales maximization is smaller than the sales loss of development costs minimization. An important implication of the results is that, to determine the optimal development time, teams need to distinguish between cost and sales effects of development time reductions. To determine the relative impact of these effects this study also estimates the elasticities of development costs, new product sales, and new product profitability with regard to development time. Armed with this knowledge, development teams should be better equipped to make trade‐offs among the four metrics of development time, development costs, proficiency in market‐entry timing, and new product sales.     

Risk factors in accepted and rejected new industrial products

Faced with limited and increasingly expensive resources, managers in most industrial product companies are constantly confronted with the difficult task of choosing which new product opportunities to accept for development funding and which to reject. Their decision is made even more difficult because of both the high failure rates and high development costs typical of high-technology industrial products, both during development and after market introduction. This research identifies some critical dimensions of risk in potential new product opportunities. This is an important step toward identifying the most relevant dimensions of government incentives for research and development assistance, as well as an aid to managers attempting to recognize and deal with the greatest risks in the new product opportunities they face.     

Evaluation of two simple extreme transshipment strategies

We consider an organization that has more than one outlet (retailer or regional warehouse) where stock is held to meet customer demands. In such a situation, transshipments can be used to improve customer service and/or reduce the aggregate stock required. Unfortunately, the determination of an optimal transshipment policy (i.e. when to transship and how much) is a complex mathematical problem. However, in earlier research the authors observed that choosing the better of two extreme policies leads to performance that is nearly as good as a more complex analysis that takes account of the future impact of a transshipment on the cost at the location sending the shipment. These extreme policies are (i) never transship and (ii) always transship when there is a shortage at one location and stock available at another. In this paper, for the case of two stocking points, we develop an analytical approach for approximately estimating the total expected costs (carrying, replenishment, transshipments and lost sales) of these two policies. This provides a mechanism for choosing between the two policies for any given set of problem characteristics. The results of a numerical experiment are shown.     

集群环境下生产制造型企业与第三方物流的协同决策研究

为了解决集群环境下生产制造型企业与第三方物流之间合理的收益分配与风险共担问题,提高协同企业系统的运行效果,在探析集群环境下双方在协同模式中的收益与风险关系基础上,提出了基于Shapley值的协同收益分配与风险分摊决策模型,分别探索了以物流成本与收益分配,物流成本与风险损失两对变量之间的波动变化规律,并将之集成计算得出了协同选择的临界点与取值范围,辅助参与企业决策,通过实证研究验证了收益分配曲线与风险量化曲线的正向相关性波动规律。结果表明:集群环境中的生产制造型企业与第三方物流的协同模式具有以市场需求为中心的组织特点,影响协同选择的风险因素主要有生产制造型企业和第三方物流的地位与作用、协同各方投入与贡献度随时间推移产生的变化、外部产业政策及内部自适应等;在协同过程中,各参与企业所获得的收益与承担的风险与所投入的物流成本之间存在着正相关关系,且存在着选择临界点;模型演算出的协同选择临界点,可保障协同模型的长期性与稳定性。研究结果为物流协同选择研究提供了新思路,对企业协同选择决策具有借鉴意义。     

To invest, or not to invest, in brands? Drivers of brand relevance in B2B markets

When allocating resources to brand investments, managers should consider the relevance of brands to the purchase decision process. Past research on consumer markets shows that brand relevance generally is driven by three functions: image benefits as well as information cost and risk reductions. This study is the first to investigate these underlying mechanisms of brand relevance in a business-to-business setting. Our main contribution is that, in contrast with consumer markets, brand relevance in industrial markets depends primarily on risk and information cost-reducing effects. Therefore, business-to-business firms should invest in their brands using tactics that support the reduction of risk and information search costs for customer decision making. This article also demonstrates that brand relevance differs across product categories, such that depending on the specific category, investing in brands may or may not be a promising strategy.     

Simulation optimization-based decision support tool for steel manufacturing

To buffer against increasing global competition and variability in the price of raw materials, steel manufacturers continuously strive to improve operations and lower costs. In this research, we employ a simulation optimization approach to develop a decision support tool to aid in strategic and operational decision-making. Specifically, we investigate work-in-process inventory levels and potential manufacturing process modifications to reduce utilization costs. A simulation model captures the complex nature of the system while an optimizer searches the solution space and sends trial solutions to the simulation for evaluation. Experimentation suggests that significant daily cost savings are possible by modifying current inventory practices and production process capabilities. Overall, the work demonstrates the ability of the solution approach to analyze complex industrial systems and identify potential improvements in a short time frame.     

Incorporating uncertainty into a supplier selection problem

Supplier selection is an important strategic supply chain design decision. Incorporating uncertainty of demand and supplier capacity into the optimization model results in a robust selection of suppliers. A two-stage stochastic programming (SP) model and a chance-constrained programming (CCP) model are developed to determine a minimal set of suppliers and optimal order quantities with consideration of business volume discounts. Both models include several objectives and strive to balance a small number of suppliers with the risk of not being able to meet demand. The SP model is scenario-based and uses penalty coefficients whereas the CCP model assumes a probability distribution and constrains the probability of not meeting demand. Both formulations improve on a deterministic mixed integer linear program and give the decision maker a more complete picture of tradeoffs between cost, system reliability and other factors. We present Pareto-optimal solutions for a sample problem to demonstrate the benefits of the SP and CCP models. In order to describe the tradeoffs between costs and risks in an analytical form, we use multi-parametric programming techniques to more completely analyze the alternative Pareto-optimal supplier selection solutions in the CCP model. This analysis gives insights into the robustness of the solutions with respect to number of suppliers, costs and probability of not meeting demand.     

Integer-ratio policies for distribution/inventory systems

We study a multistage distribution/inventory system with a central warehouse and N retailers. Customer demand arrives at each retailer at a constant rate. The retailers replenish their inventories from the warehouse, which in turn orders from an outside supplier. It is assumed that shortages are not allowed and lead times are negligible. The goal is to determine policies which minimize the overall cost in the system, that is, the sum of the costs at each facility consisting of a fixed charge per order and a holding unit cost. We propose a heuristic procedure to compute near-optimal policies. Computational results on several randomly generated problems are reported.     

Channel coordination and transaction cost: A game-theoretic analysis

Traditional research identified equilibrium marketing channel coordination by using a classical demand function, and classical economic theory often ignored transaction costs. This paper develops a transaction cost linear demand function to investigate channel decision marking when transaction costs exist. Game theory is used to compare a non-cooperative equilibrium of a differential game played under Stackelberg strategies. By focusing on the effect of the distributor's transaction costs with respect to the marketing decision variables, especially the transaction cost and profit distribution, a fuller understanding of the entire decision structure is obtained. Some results are surprising, which set up the benchmark comparisons for future work in this area.     

Risk Allowance in Original Capital Investments*

In engineering economy studies, the total risk capital is often not the original capital investment. If a firm remains profitable in the future, a portion of a completely unsuccessful investment can be recovered (1) through income-tax saving as a result of the depreciation cash flows, and (2) through possible reuse of the idle depreciating facilities.

To allow for income-tax savings, the authors propose that the present worth of the guaranteed depreciation cash flow be discounted at the cost of capital and subtracted from the total initial investment to give a better measure of the risk capital. The operating profit, depreciation-free net income, can then be treated in an appropriate fashion using probabilities or a higher discount rate to account for future uncertainties in forecasting market volume, price, manufacturing costs, etc. The application of this principle has been illustrated through a number of ex amples. The results indicate the value of distinguishing between the depreciation and operational cash flow in evaluating high-risk projects in which the yield criterion is used and in mutually exclusive evaluations in which capital investment and depreciation life vary.

A further reduction in original risk capital investment may be justified if the investment still has alternate use value should the project fail; that is, in addition to the depreciation tax credit from an idle piece of equipment. The application of this principle to a mutually exclusive decision involving a grass roots plant versus a plant located as a part of an integrated facility is illustrated. Interestingly, while most decision-makers tend to be conservative with regard to reducing risk capital, ignoring the reuse potential is inconsistent in this situation as it will tend to favor the investment with the greater risk, i.e., the grass roots location.     

Countervailing effects of value and risk perceptions in manufacturers' adoption of expensive,discontinuous innovations

Both value and risk perceptions are germane to industrial firms' adoption decisions involving discontinuous innovations. Yet a surprisingly limited number of studies examine how these two considerations jointly influence the innovation adoption phenomenon. We intend to fill this gap by studying the countervailing and context-dependent effects of value and risk perceptions on industrial firms' intention to adopt discontinuous innovations.A conceptual model is proposed and tested with data collected from influential decision makers in pharmaceutical manufacturers on their decision to adopt the modular facility technology, a costly, discontinuous facility construction innovation. The findings confirm the offsetting roles of value and risk in affecting adoption and reveal the moderating effects of external market pressure in that both value and risk assume greater roles in affecting adoption as external market pressure increases. Furthermore, our results show a positive effect of external market pressure on value, and negative effects of external market pressure and internal adoption readiness on risk.Our study contributes to the innovation diffusion and industrial marketing literatures by: (1) studying the joint and countervailing effects of value and risk perceptions on adoption decisions by manufacturers, (2) considering the contextual influences on industrial adopters' value and risk perceptions, and (3) gathering data from influential decision makers for a major capital investment decision.     

Beyond the flat rate bias: The flexibility effect in tariff choice

Flat rates are a prominent pricing scheme for telecommunications services and are often preferred by consumers although average costs would be lower in an alternative usage-based tariff. Reasons are that flat rates protect against unexpectedly high costs (insurance effect), are more likely to be chosen if actual usage is overestimated (overestimation effect), and prevent any disutility that is associated with the immediate perception of marginal costs (taximeter effect). This study complements the literature on tariff biases by highlighting that a lack of tariff flexibility is a major impediment to choosing a flat rate: empirical support for this flexibility effect is found, while, at the same time, the insurance and overestimation effect that run in favor of flat rates are confirmed. Finally, the managerial implications of the findings for the introduction of the new cost cap tariff are discussed. The hybrid cost cap tariff can combine the flexibility and the insurance property, and may, therefore, exert a cost cap bias on consumers.     

On the replenishment policy when the market demand information is lagged

We consider a situation where the most up-to-date information on the market demand and the inventory levels is not available to a replenishment decision maker in a single echelon of a supply chain. The objective of the decision maker is to minimise the sum of the inventory and the production costs. An intuitively attractive strategy under this setting might be to reduce the information time lag as much as possible by utilising information technologies such as RFID. We call this strategy the Time lag Elimination Strategy (TES). However, this course of action requires investment in information systems and will incur a running cost. We propose an alternative strategy that has similar economic consequences as the TES strategy, but it does not require new information systems. We call this strategy the Controlling Dynamics Strategy (CDS). The benefit coming from CDS is quantified and is compared to that from TES. We also quantify the benefits gained from the combined use of these two strategies. A new ordering policy is introduced that is easy to implement without any forecasting systems and can reduce the production cost significantly.     

The computation of costs for price decisions

Business should compute costs in a particular way of pricing purposes. The correct cost computation varies with its purpose, though most executives still believe that an item has a true cost regardless of why it is computed.Even cost estimates made for price decisions will differ according to the type of price decision that is at issue. One finds important differences depending on whether one is estimating costs for a one-shot bid, for a promotional price offer that is to last for a short period, or for a decision concerning long-term price. Although the same basic principles would apply in all three cases, their application is different. The appropriate concept is that of “decision cost”, a very simple but powerful idea that leads to different cost conclusions than are reached by prevailing costing methods.     

Economic life replacement under improving technology

The economic life (EL) method of asset replacement is analyzed under improving technology that impacts the maintenance cost, new asset cost, and salvage value. In particular, we prove that the asset EL is constant when all these costs decrease with the same rate. If these costs decrease geometrically, then the EL method with a corrected capital recovery factor calculates the optimal asset lifetime over the infinite horizon for arbitrary age-dependent deterioration and salvage value. In a general case, the EL method delivers an optimal replacement decision when the relative rate of technological change is less than 1%. For larger rates, we recommend to minimize the annual cost over two future replacement cycles, which was earlier proposed and implemented by Christer and Scarf, Journal of the Operational Research Society 45, 1994.     

Endogenous location leadership

We analyze a game of timing where Sellers, which have marginal production cost asymmetries, can delay entry and a commitment to a location in a Hotelling type setting. When cost differences are large enough the game becomes a war of attrition that yields Stackelberg behavior where the high cost firm will delay choosing a location until the low cost firm commits to its position. We find interaction effects between timing and the degree of product differentiation and compute timing/location and mixed strategy equilibria through a range of marginal cost differences. The firms maximally differentiate with moderate cost differences; with somewhat greater cost differences there is intermediate differentiation, and; with large cost differences there is a blockading monopoly. The low cost firm always commits to entry immediately whereas the high cost firm either enters immediately, shortly after the low cost leader, or never, depending on the cost differences. Finally, we find that in equilibrium the duopoly is sustained for a larger range of cost differentials and that differentiation is greater than the social optimum.     

Environmentally responsible inventory models: Non-classical models for a non-classical era

Mathematical models of inventory typically include the three inventory associated costs of surplus, shortage and ordering. These classic inventory models are then analysed so as to choose inventory parameters that usually minimise the total cost of operating the inventory system being investigated.Unfortunately, classic inventory models do not provide a meaningful basis for analysing many real and increasingly important practical inventory problems and situations. It is therefore not surprising that over recent years, several authors have discussed these issues in broad terms and suggested that a new paradigm needs to be developed.This paper develops some specific aspects of this discussion. In particular, the paper identifies a range of inventory problems that are not covered appropriately by traditional inventory analysis. One of these is to design responsible inventory systems, i.e. systems that reflect the needs of the environment. The paper then examines the importance of inventory planning to the environment in greater detail. For example, packaging is important, not only because of its costs and the protection that it provides to the inventory items, but also because of its eventual effects on the environment in terms of the use of resources and potential landfill. For similar reasons, waste, which can result from poor inventory management, is highly important. The location of stores is important because location affects transport costs. Thus the influence of the secondary aspects of most inventory models; packaging, waste and location are important but, even more important are the inter-relations with the total system. In particular, the location of the manufacturing plants and the effect that inventory planning has on the logistics chain, potentially have considerable environmental implications. Inventory is part of a wider system.However, until the cost charged for an activity reflects the true environmental cost of that activity, it is likely that decisions will be made on the basis of erroneous data. In that situation, we are faced with either determining the environmental cost of specific actions or to use environmental costs that are somewhat contrived; in which case it may be more sensible to use very different performance measures and models. The paper discusses these ideas and ways in which inventory policies may reassure us with our environmental concerns.     

The IMF's food financing facility: Much ado about nothing

In May 1981 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its decision to extend compensatory financing assistance to members encountering balance of payments difficulties caused by increased cereal import costs. At the time, the Food Financing Facility was welcomed as a significant step towards providing a more adequate level of world food security. Since its establishment, only limited use has been made of the facility and the Director-General of the FAO commented recently that ‘it needs to be improved’.     

How one hospital broke its inflation fever

The Johns Hopkins Hospital has demonstrated that hospital costs can be decreased without governmental intervention (controls). From 1975 to 1978, the hospital inflation rate was cut by half. One key factor, according to Solomon, was a move to decentralize management which was accompanied by a detailed system for monitoring costs. Also instrumental were administration's consistent reminders to physicians and managers about keeping costs down. The hospital was reorganized from a system of clinical departments that behaved, says Solomon, like "fiefdoms" into 14 autonomous departments that function under their own budgets. Each department controls about 85% of its costs (up from 30%), and is set up to function "like a small business." A breakdown of where cost reductions took place shows a savings of $5 million in overhead and $1.5 million in malpractice claims (Hopkins self-insured). Individual departments have also achieved some dramatic reductions: the Department of Medicine decreased the number of laboratory tests ordered; and the Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics built a new facility with fewer beds than the old one.     

The Adjustable Balance Mortgage: Reducing the Value of the Put

We propose a new mortgage contract that endogenously captures the risk of house price declines to minimize default risk resulting from changes in the underlying asset value while still retaining contract rates near the cost of a standard fixed‐rate mortgage. By reducing the role of the legal system in mitigating house price risk, the new mortgage reduces the negative externalities and social costs arising from defaults. In other words, the new mortgage minimizes the need to use the legal foreclosure system to deal with the economic risk of house price declines.