A Measure of Fundamental Volatility in the Commercial Property Market

The low level of volatility observed in appraisal-based commercial property indices relative to other asset classes has been frequently noted and extensively commented on in the real estate finance literature. However, the volatility of such commercial property indices is only one source of information on the second moment of commercial property returns. The volatility of securitized property returns forms another potential source of information, though there is some uncertainty about how closely the volatility of securitized returns may match the volatility of the underlying asset. Each measure of volatility has a potential source of noise associated with it. This paper proposes a fundamental measure of volatility for the commercial property market by using a stochastic volatility model to filter out the signal in the different sources of volatility information. This allows for different measures of volatility to be decomposed into transitory noise and unobserved fundamental volatility. The suitability of such an approach and the properties of the underlying fundamental volatility series are analyzed using data from the U.K. property market.     

The Performance of Commercial Mortgages

This study examines the return characteristics of a large, well-diversified commercial mortgage portfolio. Mortgage-specific cash-flow histories are constructed for 2,480 loans originated over the period 1974 through 1990, and a contingent-claims approach to pricing risky debt is used to estimate inter-temporal market values. Quarterly holding-period returns are compared across selected mortgage groups and to alternate asset classes. Our findings suggest that both mortgage returns and volatility of return are comparable to those of other forms of fixed-income assets over the study period. Implied property price volatility is found to average 17%, a result significantly higher than reported in earlier studies. While mortgage returns are found to vary by property type and region of origin, cross correlation of returns is found to be high, illustrating the systematic effect of interest rates on the performance of commercial mortgages over the period 1974 through 1990. However, an increase in credit risk in the latter years of the study suggests that diversification may be a worthwhile objective for holders of these assets. We do not find evidence to suggest that abnormal returns were earned on commercial mortgage portfolios over the study period.     

Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon

In this article, three oft‐mentioned special characteristics of the real estate asset market—high transaction costs, marketing period risk and return predictability—are addressed in analyzing the role of U.K. commercial real estate investments in a mixed‐asset portfolio. Due to favorable horizon effects in risk and return, the allocation to real estate in a portfolio with stocks, bonds and cash increases strongly with the investment horizon. Examining the relative importance of return predictability, transaction costs and marketing period risk for the optimal allocation to real estate, the article finds that the consideration of return predictability is very important, except for short‐term horizons. Accounting for transaction costs is crucial for short‐ and medium‐term investors. Marketing period risk appears to be negligible. Traditional mean‐variance analysis—that is, ignoring return predictability, transaction costs and marketing period risk—can be very misleading.     

REAL OPTIONS VOLATILITY ESTIMATION WITH CORRELATED INPUTS

Real Options Analysis (ROA) provides a framework for valuing reactive and proactive managerial flexibility in investment decisions. Estimating the volatility parameter for a real options model is challenging because there are typically no historical returns for the underlying asset and no current market prices. A previously developed method of using simulation to estimate the volatility parameter for a real investment is demonstrated. The effects of serial price correlation and price-demand cross-correlation on volatility parameters developed with this method are explained. Finally, managerial implications of these findings are discussed.     

Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

This paper develops a methodology to identify asset price response to news in the framework of the Campbell–Shiller log-linear present-value equation. We further show that a slow price adjustment in real estate markets not only induces a high serial autocorrelation in excess returns, but also dampens the return volatility and the correlation with excess returns in other asset markets. Using Hong Kong real estate and stock market data, we find that the quarterly real estate price assimilates only about half the effect of market news, whereas the quarterly stock price incorporates the news fully. Our analysis identifies a cumulative price adjustment that recovers lost information in real estate returns due to market inefficiency and thereby restores the real estate return volatility and the correlation between real estate and stock markets.     

Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates

This article presents a real options model that fits managerial cash flow estimates (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic projections) to a continuous geometric Brownian motion (GBM) cash flow process with changing growth and volatility parameters. The cash flows and the value of a project are correlated to a traded asset, so the real option is priced under the risk-neutral measure with a closed-form solution. The analysis is extended to a sequential compound call option for investments over multiple periods. If the project is correlated to the market, then some of the risk may be mitigated by a delta-hedging strategy. A numerical example shows that the effect of the correlated asset on the real option value is significant, and the relationship between the volatility of the project and the real option value is not analogous to the typical relationship found in financial option pricing. Integrating the expertise and industry knowledge of management, this approach makes possible a more rigorous estimation of model inputs for real option pricing.     

Risk and Return in the U.S. Housing Market: A Cross-Sectional Asset-Pricing Approach

This article carries out an asset-pricing analysis of the U.S. metropolitan housing market. We use ZIP code–level housing data to study the cross-sectional role of volatility, price level, stock market risk and idiosyncratic volatility in explaining housing returns. While the related literature tends to focus on the dynamic role of volatility and housing returns within submarkets over time, our risk–return analysis is cross-sectional and covers the national U.S. metropolitan housing market. The study provides a number of important findings on the asset-pricing features of the U.S. housing market. Specifically, we find (i) a positive relation between housing returns and volatility, with returns rising by 2.48% annually for a 10% rise in volatility, (ii) a positive but diminishing price effect on returns and (iii) that stock market risk is priced directionally in the housing market. Our results on the return-volatility-price relation are robust to (i) metropolitan statistical area clustering effects and (ii) differences in socioeconomic characteristics among submarkets related to income, employment rate, managerial employment, owner-occupied housing, gross rent and population density.     

REIT Capital Budgeting and Equity Marginal q

Equity marginal  q  is the change in the market value of a company's equity in response to a one-unit unexpected change in its asset base. Hence, it is a profitability index that evaluates a firm's capital budgeting decisions at the margin. We estimate the equity marginal  q  for real estate–managing public corporations, namely, real estate investment trusts (REITs), in an attempt to understand how the various costs and benefits of being a public corporation play a role in managing this important asset class. Using the universe of equity REITs for the period from 1993 to 2005, we find that REITs with greater idiosyncratic volatility, higher stock turnover and smaller bid-ask spread have a higher equity marginal  q . In addition, both the holdings of institutional investors and their investment horizons are respectively positively related to equity marginal  q.  With these firm characteristics taken into account, firm size is found to be negatively related to equity marginal  q . Our findings are economically important as well, because the equity marginal  q  ratio alone accounts for approximately one-third of the total REIT shareholder wealth change during the study period.     

A big data driven framework for demand-driven forecasting with effects of marketing-mix variables

This study aims to investigate the contributions of promotional marketing activities, historical demand and other factors to predict, and develop a big data-driven fuzzy classifier-based framework, also called “demand-driven forecasting,” that can shape, sense and respond to real customer demands. The availability of timely information about future customer needs is a key success factor for any business. For profit maximization, manufacturers want to sense demand signals and shape future demands using price, sales, promotion and others economic factors so that they can fulfil customer's orders immediately. However, most demand forecasting systems offer limited insight to manufacturers as they fail to capture contemporary market trends, product seasonality and the impact of forecasting on the magnitude of the bullwhip effect. This paper aims to improve the accuracy of demand forecasts. In order to achieve this, a back-propagation neural network-based model is trained by fuzzy inputs and compared with benchmark forecasting methods on a time series data, by using historical demand and sales data in combination with advertising effectiveness, expenditure, promotions, and marketing events data. A statistical analysis is conducted, and the experiments show that the method used in the proposed framework outperforms in optimality, efficiency and other statistical metrics. Finally, some invaluable insights for managers are presented to improve the forecast accuracy of fuzzy neural networks, develop marketing plans for products and discuss their implications in several fields.     

Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process

We consider the issues associated with modeling the decision to invest in an illiquid asset, such as real estate, over an extended period of time. Markets for illiquid assets tend to display certain characteristics: for example, significant time‐till‐sale and correlation in the rates of return over time. More importantly, as the liquidity of a market cannot be an issue if an investor never needs to liquidate an asset, we focus on how the liquidity of a market interacts with an individual's uncertain need to liquidate. We show that the optimal strategy is state contingent, if possible. We also show that the penalty associated with an illiquid investment depends on the characteristics of other assets being held in the portfolio, on the characteristics of liquidity shocks and on the interaction between time and behavior. We show that borrowing to pay for a liquidity shock cannot overcome all of the costs of owning an illiquid asset. In contrast, borrowing at t = 0 benefits from the complementarity in the assets. In a simpler model, we show that the portfolio perspective makes illiquid assets more valuable to an investor with a longer time horizon.     

Externalities of residential property flipping

This study investigates whether flipping activities impose an externality on the transaction prices of the neighboring nonflipped properties. Using a data set of residential property transactions in Clark County, Nevada for the period 2003–2013, we find that flippers impose a significant positive impact on the price of neighboring nonflipped properties in an up market, but a significant negative effect in a down market. This procyclical impact of flipping activity contributes to the volatility of housing prices, hence magnifying boom and bust cycles and increasing the likelihood of a mortgage crisis.     

The Impact of the Corporate Mind‐set on New Product Launch Strategy and Market Performance

In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the link between new product launch strategy and market performance. So far, new product launch research has focused on this performance relationship without giving much attention to background factors that can facilitate or inhibit successful launch strategies. However, investigating such antecedents that set the framework in which different strategic launch decisions enable or prevent the market performance of new products is useful for enhancing the current state of knowledge. Drawing on the concept of a firm's orientation, the present study discusses the influence of the corporate mind‐set on new product launch strategy and market performance. It is hypothesized that the capability to successfully launch new products is based on the interplay between a firm's mind‐set (i.e., an analytical, risk‐taking, and aggressive posture) and its strategic launch decisions on setting launch objectives, selecting target markets, and positioning the new product. A research model with mediating effects is proposed, where the corporate mind‐set determines the launch strategy decisions, which in turn impact market performance. The model is tested with data on 113 industrial new products launched in business‐to‐business markets in Germany using a multiple informant approach. The results support the mediated model as the dimensions of the corporate mind‐set have a significant impact on most strategic launch decisions, which in turn significantly contribute to market performance. It is found that while an analytical posture relates to all three strategic launch decisions, risk taking and an aggressive posture have a significant impact on two, respectively one, launch strategy elements. These findings confirm the importance of investigating antecedents for a successful new product launch, as the corporate mind‐set serves as a background resource that sets the framework for successful new product launch decisions. In the final section implications for research and managerial practice as well as limitations of this research are provided.     

Privately Versus Publicly Held Asset Investment Performance

Classic asset pricing is problematic as a method to assess privately held asset investment performance. We propose an alternative approach that involves adjusting the characteristics of assets constituting an index or portfolio to match the asset characteristics of a reference index or portfolio. This approach is applied to commercial real estate, where we create an index of REIT returns to compare to the NCREIF index. To enhance comparability, return indices are adjusted for partial-year financial data, leverage, asset mix and fees. Adjusted results over a 1980–1998 sample period show general convergence between the indices, although an annual return difference of over three percentage points remains in favor of public market asset ownership. Possible causes of the investment performance gap include liquidity and geography as missing risk factor adjustments, an unrepresentative sample period, and the form in which commercial real estate assets are held.     

Asset Pricing Information in Vintage REIT Returns: An Information Subset Test

REIT return data prior to the new REIT era offer important asset pricing information. At issue is whether empiricists should focus attention on returns series covering only the new period. We use a generalized asset pricing and information subset test to disentangle REIT information from information available in several benchmark series. Results indicate that REIT returns are informative about the discounting process during the pre–new-era period. Thus, the distribution of vintage REIT returns is not fully explained by either broad market indexes or from size-based anomalies. This study should be viewed as a useful empirical precedent for those studying REIT data preceding the new REIT era.     

Urban Growth: A View from the Supply Side

Traditionally, models of urban growth have focused on demand factors. Housing has been the primary area of interest since it uses a great deal of land and thus is a major shaper of urban growth and structure. This emphasis on demand is sound in principle: consumer demand drives developer location and land using decisions, since developers' locational choices are derived from consumer preferences. This reasoning will pertain as long as developers can meet consumer preferences without difficulty. In actuality such preferences can only be met, within consumer budget constraints, by working within existing and often constraining institutional settings. This paper explores urban growth, from the supply side by examining residential developer location criteria as obtained from surveys. These behavioral findings are then used to obtain allocation functions for a simulation model. The allocation functions are based on the stated locational preferences of developers. The resulting simulation output is compared with actual growth in the Greater Vancouver Region of British Columbia for the period 1971–1975. The results are encouraging and point up areas where additional work is needed to better test the utility of the behavioral data in forecasting urban growth.     

The use of asset specific investments to increase customer dependence: A study of OEM suppliers

Making asset specific investments without sufficient economic safeguards is usually seen as a poor managerial practice according to transaction cost economics. However, in practice, many suppliers still invest in asset specificity to satisfy their major customers' requirements, who do not make sufficient investment commitments. The objective of this study is to explore how suppliers that make asset-specific investments maintain long-term relationships with their customers and even make their customers reliant on them. Empirical analysis of data from a sample of Taiwanese original equipment manufacturer (OEM) suppliers shows a significant positive indirect effect of asset specificity on the dependence of customers on suppliers, mediated through joint learning capacity. In addition, a positive link between a proactive market orientation and the degree of customer dependence on the supplier was found. This investigation finds evidence that joint learning capacity and proactive market orientation play critical roles in linking asset specificity to customer dependence.     

Factors Affecting New Product Forecasting Accuracy in New Firms

This study identifies factors that seem to influence a new firm's ability to accurately forecast new product sales. William Gartner and Robert Thomas present a conceptual model and develop hypotheses that specify antecedent factors prior to new product launch, such as the founder's expertise and the marketing research methods used, as well as environmental factors occurring after product launch, such as competitive factors and market volatility, that influence new product forecasting accuracy. The hypotheses were tested with data collected from a survey of 113 new U.S. software firms. Some tentative guidelines for improving sales forecast accuracy among new firms are offered. Directions for future research are discussed.     

中美市场投资者惯性和反转交易偏好的实证研究

为了探索中国和美国证券市场的惯性和反转收益异常现象差异,本文参考了Jegedeesh和Titman的累计超额收益CAR研究方法,选取了2000年1月~2020年2月美国证券市场和中国证券市场股票数据构建了不同时期的收益期和检验期惯性和反转策略。为了检验结果的稳健性,本文还加入24个月和36个月的窗口期。同时,为了比较两国投资者之间的投资差异,本文构建惯性策略并选取企业规模、价值和波动3个指标来衡量两国间投资者差异。结果表明整体美国市场短期内具有明显的动量效应,而中国市场在短、中、长期都具有显著的反转效应。两个市场中,中国市场的投资者偏好小市值、高成长价值和高波动性的股票,而美国投资者则偏向大市值股票和低波动性股票。基于两个市场的差异(新兴市场和有效市场),本文找到了一些美国市场的先进投资经验,它对规范我国投资市场有重要的借鉴意义。     

Interest Rate Risk, Residential Mortgages and Financial Futures Markets

Residential mortgage markets in both the United States and Canada have recently been dominated by instruments such as variable-rate and short-term rollover mortgages which require borrowers to assume a greater burden of interest rate risk. An outstanding question is whether this approach to risk allocation is Pareto optimal or whether there are other more effective methods of dealing with the risk created by interest rate volatility. This study examines the potential for shifting this risk from the mortgage market to the financial futures market. After considering the rationale for expecting that neither mortgage borrowers nor lenders wish to absorb the high levels of risk present in the existing financial environment, this study discusses the hedging of interest rate risk through financial futures markets. Empirical tests are then performed to evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. futures markets for hedging positions from the U.S. mortgage market. These results indicate that the interest rate risk inherent in residential mortgages can be substantially shifted through one or more positions in the existing futures contracts and long-term, fixed-rate mortgages may still be financially feasible under conditions of interest rate volatility.     

The Geography of Real Property Information and Investment: Firm Location,Asset Location and Institutional Ownership

Using a sample of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), we show that institutional investors exploit location‐based information asymmetries by overweighting firms headquartered locally and those with greater economic interests in the investor's home metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This asset allocation strategy is associated with superior portfolio performance. In a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences analysis of investor headquarters relocations, we find that investors tend to increase their ownership of REITs that have property holdings in the market to which the investor relocates. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the relation between information advantages and the geography of firm's operations, as well as the implications on ownership patterns and portfolio construction.