A Review of: “STATISTICS OF EXTREMES” By Emil J. Gumbel Columbia University Press New York, 1958 375 pp. $15.00

Standard procedures for evaluating future cash flows are to find an appropriate discount rate consistent with the cash flow's risk and then to derive a present value. While discounted cash flows seem appropriate for many instances, finding appropriate discount rates is often difficult, or discount rates may not exist when the risk is actually a function of a decision that requires the cash-flow valuation. We consider two approaches that have been suggested to alleviate this problem: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory. We discuss the assumptions inherent in these models and show the results on the well-known news vendor model. Our option pricing results correspond to Singhal's [17] results using CAPM and a different valuation procedure for the option pricing model. We, however, derive a simpler expression that clearly illustrates differences from the standard form ignoring risk.     

A Review of“BUSINESS INVESTMENT POLICY”* A Critical Review GEORGE TERBORGH: Machinery and Allied Products Institute and Council for Technological Advancement, 1200 Eighteenth Street,N.W., Washington,D.C., 1958. 260 pp. $6 (A MAPI Study and Manual)

In my previous article on “Project Justification in a Multi-product Chemical Plant”, which appeared in the Fall 1959 issue of The Engineering Economist, I discussed the underlying causes for equipment acquisition and replacement in the chemical industry, and followed with a presentation of the payout-time technique for evaluating capital expenditure, as designed by a leading dye and pharmaceutical plant. Many other well-known techniques, such as the Annual Cost method, the Discounted Cash Flow, and the MAPI approach, are also available to management. However, none of the techniques mentioned relieves management of the basic responsibility for making the ultimate decisions regarding capital acquisition for expansion or replacement. The methods do present management with an analysis pointing up the relative merits of a given type of investment, and give some indication as to which alternative is the more desirable. Management, nevertheless, must assume responsibility for the final decision.     

A Review of: “PROFITABILITY AND ECONOMIC CHOICE” by Paul H. Jeynes The Iowa State University Press 1968 622 pp. $13.50

Semisolid die casting (SSDC) is a newly developed technology to improve the quality of products and to reduce the costs of liquid die casting process. We assessed the gas-induced semisolid process (GISS), which generates a semisolid metal for die casting, in this comparison of the costs per unit between a traditional liquid die casting process and the semisolid die casting process. A process-based costing model (PBCM) was created to estimate the production costs. In principle, the PBCM consists of three submodels: process model, operation model, and financial model. This study indicates that three main factors, namely cycle time, rate of waste, and die life, affected the unit production costs. The production cost estimates decreased by approximately 13% when the process was switched from a liquid to a semisolid one.     

A Review of: “FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT: IOWA'S EXPERIENCE” Edited by Merwin D. Dougal Iowa State University Press 1969 270pp. $6.95

In its development as academic subject matter, engineering economics started as a set of simple determinations of alternative costs for engineering projects, predominately in the civil and mechanical fields. It subsequently began using later-developed techniques of quantitative analysis such as operations research, microeconomics, managerial economics, and finance. To reinforce its position in the engineering curriculum for the ever more important environmental sciences, it is suggested that engineering economics courses seek to bring their analytic resources to bear on the many possible topics included in this set of disciplines.