Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan

Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.     

Understanding early diffusion of digital wireless phones

There is increasing empirical evidence from academic research and strong recognition among policymakers that wide diffusion and innovative uses of digital wireless phones are important sources of a country's economic growth and social development. Adopters do not necessarily adopt digital wireless phones at the same time though. Although the diffusion of innovation theory suggests five adopter categories according to their degree of innovativeness, this approach lacks theoretical justification and, more importantly, it makes a critical assumption of a normal distribution of adopters that needs empirical validation. This study investigates the basis for defining different adopter categories and factors that affect adoption decisions of digital wireless phones using the aggregate data on 46 developed and developing countries from 1992 to 2002. This paper utilizes a two-step analysis approach. The first step evaluates the distribution of adopters over time using various diffusion models. The second step uses iterative survival analysis to examine the patterns of influential factors on adoption behavior by evaluating the survival models using a 1% increment of cumulative penetration as the targeted events. The results of the best-fitting diffusion models indicate that digital wireless phone adoption patterns did not follow a normal distribution and did not map exactly into Rogers’ five adopter categories. The results from the iterative survival analysis suggest four adopter categories (innovators, early adopters, breakthrough adopters, and mainstream adopters) among the first 30% of adopters. Different factors are observed to influence various adopter categories’ adoption decisions. The results offer insights to support telecommunication operators to develop strategies to attract these adopters. It also supports policymakers’ efforts to design effective regulatory frameworks.     

Diffusion and competitive relationship of mobile telephone service in Guatemala: An empirical analysis

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of diffusion process of mobile telephone service and the competitive relationships between mobile and fixed-line services in Guatemalan telecommunications market. We investigated the best-suited model to explain the diffusion process of mobile telephone in Guatemala by estimating diffusion curves using empirical data. Moreover, we explored affecting factors which characterize the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Guatemala through statistical analysis. Finally, in order to understand the effects of competition in the diffusion process of Guatemalan mobile phone service, we attempted to clarify the competitive relationship between mobile and fixed-line services using the Lotka-Volterra model. As a result, the logistic model was found to be the best model for describing the diffusion pattern. Moreover, investment in telecommunications, the subscribers of fixed-line services, and the number of operators in mobile market were found as significant determinants of mobile diffusion process. Results from the Lotka-Volterra model showed that the relationship between mobile and fixed-line services has changed from pure competition to amensalism.     

An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.     

Impacts of mobile Internet use intensity on the demand for SMS and voice services of mobile network operators: An empirical multi-method study of German mobile Internet customers

Scholarly and business publications alike convey the message that past and future strong growth in mobile Internet (MI) access and service demand has solely positive commercial implications for mobile network operators (MNOs). This position neglects the possibility that increasing MI use intensity may lead to demand decreases for the highly profitable short messaging service (SMS) and mobile voice telephony. The extant literature provides few insights on relations between MI use intensity, on the one hand, and SMS as well as mobile voice call use intensities, on the other hand. This study developed hypotheses concerning the presence or absence of impacts of MI use intensity and circumstances of MI use (e.g., device type, tariff scheme) on the demand for SMS and mobile voice telephony at the individual customer level. The hypotheses were tested by analyzing actual use behaviors of 304 MI adopters in Germany, for whom objective use intensity data were extracted from the billing system of an MNO. These non-reactive measures were combined with responses collected from the adopters through a telephone survey. Multivariate regression results suggest that though MI use intensity significantly negatively affected both number of SMS sent and received, these effects were so small that their practical relevance is highly doubtful. Further, customers who used MI more intensively did not generate lower volumes of outgoing or incoming mobile voice connection minutes. Conclusions are drawn for MNO, telecommunications sector regulators and scholarly researchers seeking to explain the acceptance of mobile communications services.     

Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that may be useful to policy makers and market planners. The non-diffusion choice literature shows quite clearly that these dynamics may indeed be very important factors in the diffusion process. The authors present a segmental broadband diffusion model that is estimated from consumer survey data that measure the effect that household income has on its propensity to adopt this technological product. The results suggest that early broadband adopters are mostly made up from wealthy households and only as time progresses do less well off households adopt. The findings presented in this paper will be important to market planners and policy makers requiring a relatively simple technique that forecasts segmental innovation diffusion.     

Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?

Factors determining the diffusion of digital mobile telephony across developed and developing countries are studied with the aid of a Gompertz model. After controlling for other factors, the speed of diffusion per se is not significantly different between the two groups of countries. Standards competition hinders and market competition promotes diffusion in both groups. Various factors are, however, more important in a developing country context: having a large potential user base, accumulating network effects, being open, commanding a high (non-telecom) technological level, and introducing innovation(s) complementing mobile telephony. Late entrants experience faster diffusion promoting cross-country convergence.     

An Illustration of Potential Sources of Concept‐Test Error*

A critical step in prelaunch market analysis needing improvement is concept testing. This article reviews the literature on the three basic design decisions inherent to concept testing: (1) stimuli design; (2) respondent selection; and (3) response measurement. By incorporating findings from diffusion theory, the current review identifies a number of potential sources of concept‐test error (e.g., failing to account for adoption orientation could unintentionally mask the response of earlier adopters). Through an exploratory study that replicates in many ways a typical concept test, the present study illustrates how results of conventional concept testing can be sensitive to respondents' adoption orientation and the response measure used. This study offers implications for NPD practice that include accounting for the adoption orientation of respondents, using appropriate response measures such as affective questions for later adopters, and incorporating more product‐related information and repeat exposure for later adopters.     

Innovation in the Retail Banking Industry: The Diffusion of Credit Scoring

We study technology diffusion in the retail banking industry. Our contribution to the empirical literature is twofold: Firstly, we explore technology diffusion in the financial sector, whose relevance has often been neglected; secondly we focus on credit scoring adoption, a relevant process innovation still under-explored. Estimating a set of duration models, we analyze the patterns of diffusion of this technology among Italian banks. We find that credit scoring is firstly introduced by large banks with broad branch networks, which can fully exploit scale economies. We present robust evidence that banks with large market shares operating in more concentrated markets are early adopters, providing a direct support of the Schumpeterian hypothesis that market power enhances innovation.The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy.     

Commercializing Technological Innovation: Learning from Failures in High‐Tech Markets*

Commercialization is known to be a critical stage of the technological innovation process, mainly because of the high risks and costs that it entails. Despite this, many scholars consider it to be often the least well managed phase of the entire innovation process, and there is ample empirical evidence corroborating this belief. In high‐tech markets, the difficulties encountered by firms in commercializing technological innovation are exacerbated by the volatility, interconnectedness, and proliferation of new technologies that characterize such markets. This is clearly evinced by the abundance of new high‐tech products that fail on the market chiefly due to poor commercialization. Yet there is no clear understanding, in management theory and practice, of how commercialization decisions influence the market failure of new high‐tech products. Drawing on research in innovation management, diffusion of innovation, and marketing, this article shows how commercialization decisions can influence consumer acceptance of a new high‐tech product in two major ways: (i) by affecting the extent to which the players in the innovation's adoption network support the new product; (ii) by affecting the post‐purchase attitude early adopters develop toward the innovation, and hence the type of word‐of‐mouth (positive or negative) they disseminate among later adopters. Lack of support from the adoption network is found to be an especially critical cause of failure for systemic innovations, while a negative post‐purchase attitude of early adopters is a more significant determinant of market failure for radical innovations. There follows a historical analysis of eight innovations launched on consumer high‐tech markets (Apple Newton, IBM PC‐Junior, Tom Tom GO, Sony Walkman, 3DO Interactive Multiplayer, Sony MiniDisc, Palm Pilot, and Nintendo NES), which illustrates how commercialization decisions (i.e., timing, targeting and positioning, inter‐firm relationships, product configuration, distribution, advertising, and pricing) can determine lack of support from the innovation's adoption network and a negative post‐purchase attitude of early adopters. The results of this work provide useful insights for improving the commercialization decisions of product and marketing managers operating in high‐technology markets, helping them avoid errors that are precursors of market failure. It is also hoped the article will inform further research aimed at identifying, theoretically and empirically, other possible causes of poor customer acceptance in high‐tech markets.     

An investigation into the mixed reported adoption rates for ABC: Evidence from Australia, New Zealand and the UK

An accumulated body of the literature confirms that the adoption of activity-based costing (ABC) can lead to a substantial improvement in organisational performance, productivity and profitability, and therefore encourages further adoption of the technique. However, studies investigating the diffusion of ABC have reported inconsistent and mixed results. This could cause uncertainty for many potential adopters of ABC (especially for those who follow the fashion and fads approaches) and influence their tendencies towards the adoption of ABC in the future. Addressing the diffusion process as a contextual factor, this study simultaneously investigates the adoption of ABC from the perspectives of different diffusion processes. Using two commonly adopted diffusion processes (the stages of adoption and the levels of adoption), this study examines the relationship between the reported adoption rates for ABC and the diffusion process approaches chosen to measure its adoption rates in three western countries: Australia, New Zealand and the UK. A similar questionnaire was used and more than 2000 qualified CIMA members (via a survey study and follow-up interviews) were targeted. The findings suggest a significant association between the reported adoption rates for ABC and the diffusion process approaches chosen to measure the adoption rates. The findings further suggest that the lack of a common understanding of ABC systems may have also contributed to the mixed reported adoption rates for ABC, as many ABC adopters have considered themselves adopters of traditional accounting systems by mistake (especially when they are dealing with ‘facility costs’ as one of the main cost hierarchies under ABC systems).     

Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam

This paper analyzes the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Vietnam and examines how telecommunications regulation and potential substitute/complement services affect the growth of the number of mobile telephone subscribers. Using a logistic diffusion model, it is found that fixed telephone services are a complement while data services have a negative relation to mobile telephone services in Vietnam. As for regulation, the policy of introducing competition has been found to be the most effective in influencing the adoption of mobile services. Another important result is that the estimated potential market is roughly 76% of the total population. The findings suggest that suitable regulation that guarantees competition in the mobile telecommunications market in a developing country such as Vietnam is one of the most important factors for a positive diffusion process.     

Competition in Korean mobile telecommunications market: business strategy and regulatory environment

After the launch of PCS in 1997, the Korean mobile telephony market achieved a remarkable subscriber base growth. The market is composed of a differentiation advantage seeker, SK Telecom; a cost advantage seeker, LG Telecom; and three other carriers: Hansol PCS, Korea Telecom Freetel, and Shunsegi Telecom that do not show clear adherence to any type of advantage. Despite large growth in subscribers, price competition has not occurred after the competition except in handset subsidies. New restrictions on handset subsidies, closing the only door for price competition, favored a differentiation seeker at the expense of a cost advantage seeker. The Ministry of Information and Communication’s provisional plan for quality evaluation without price deregulation runs the risk of quality over-provision that is sub-optimal, and may further distort the business performance of carriers. Overall complete deregulation is necessary, in order to enhance the competitiveness of the Korean mobile telephony industry and to increase consumer welfare.