Trade and Tradability: Exports, Imports, and Factor Markets in the Salter-Swan Model

We extend the Salter-Swan model to include both factor markets and semi-traded goods. In our model, changes in relative factor prices depend on changes in world commodity prices, factor endowments, and the trade balance. In contrast, only changes in world commodity prices can affect factor prices in the neoclassical trade model. The inclusion of semi-traded goods weakens the magnification effect in both the Stolper-Samuelson and Rybczynski theorems. When imports and domestic goods are poor substitutes, a characteristic of some commodities in developing countries, the sign of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem is reversed.     

Factor Substitution and Relative Factor Prices

This paper examines the effects of factor endowments on factor prices in a three‐factor, two‐commodity general‐equilibrium model with endogenous commodity demand and prices. Unlike the conventional small open‐economy model that assumes constant commodity prices, factor substitution influences the direction of these effects. When a factor endowment increases, complementarity with the expanding factor benefits an unchanged factor, but substitutability harms it. If the unchanged factors are complements, there is a possibility of a rise in the expanding factor's price. A comparison of this closed‐economy model with the small open‐economy model reveals the role of international trade, which dampens the effect on the expanding factor's price.     

Beyond Icebergs: Towards a Theory of Biased Globalization

In contrast to domestic trade, international trade inherently requires more intensive use of skilled labour with expertise in areas such as international business, language skills, and maritime insurance, and the transoceanic transportation is more capital intensive than the local transportation. In the presence of such bias in factor demands, globalization caused by an improvement in the export technologies can lead to a worldwide increase in the relative prices of the factors used intensively in international trade. Furthermore, a worldwide increase in the factors used intensively in international trade can lead to globalization. To capture these effects, we develop a flexible approach to model costly international trade, which includes the standard iceberg approach as a special case. More specifically, we extend the Ricardian model of trade with a continuum of goods by introducing multiple factors of production and by making technologies of supplying goods depend on whether the destination is home or abroad. If the technologies of supplying the same good to the two destinations differ only in total factor productivity, the model becomes isomorphic to the Ricardian model with the iceberg cost. By allowing the two technologies to differ in the factor intensities, our approach enables us to examine the links between factor endowments, factor prices, and globalization that cannot be captured by the iceberg approach.     

International Capital Mobility and Free Trade Once Again*

Using a Heckscher–Ohlin model, this paper re‐examines Robert Mundell's famous thesis that free trade and unimpeded capital mobility are perfect substitutes. Under very general conditions which, according to many economists, have caused international convergence of factor rewards, we show that in a polluted environment free trade is inferior to free international investment. This happens even though commodity prices and factor rewards are the same with both policies. The practical side of our thesis is that the world will be better off by reducing the volume of trade while removing all barriers to foreign direct investment that at present hamper the service industries.     

Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels

Studies on the relationship between exchange rates and traded goods prices typically find evidence of incomplete pass-through, usually explained by pricing-to-market behaviour. Although economic theory predicts that incomplete pass-through may also be linked to the presence of non-tariff barriers to trade, variables reflecting such a link is rarely included in empirical models. In this paper, we estimate a pricing-to-market model for Norwegian import prices on textiles and wearing apparels, controlling for non-tariff barriers to trade and shift in imports from high- to low-cost countries. We apply the cointegrated VAR approach and develop measures of foreign prices based on superlative price indices (including the Törnqvist and Fischer price indices) and a data calibration method necessary to approximate relative price levels across countries. Our measures of foreign prices thereby account for inflationary differences and varying import shares and price level differences (known as the China effect) among trading partners. We show that these measures of foreign prices, unlike standard measures used in the pricing-to-market literature, are likely to produce unbiased estimates of pass-through. Once the China effect is controlled for, we find little evidence that pass-through has changed alongside trade liberalisation.     

A general equilibrium appraisal of energy policy in Mexico

This paper develops a static neoclassical general equilibrium model of the Mexican economy that focuses on production, consumption, and exports of energy goods. The specification of the model allows the government to set prices and production levels of energy goods exogenously. Domestic prices differ from international prices, and net exports of these goods are determined residually. The level of energy exports is a major factor in the determination of the government and trade deficits. The analysis presented in this paper serves as a case study of how to design and use an applied general equilibrium model to do policy analysis. An interesting feature is that the model itself is used to determine one of the key parameters, the elasticity of substitution of non-energy imports for domestic goods.     

人民币升值能改善日美与中国的贸易状况吗?——基于汇率经过效应的研究

有学者提出,被低估的人民币是中国贸易盈余和全球贸易不平衡的主要因素,因此,人民币升值有助于改善中西方的贸易状况。显然,这种观点的内在逻辑是:人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格,同时降低外国进口商品和服务的价格,即人民币升值存在较大的汇率经过效应(pass-though effect)。通过对人民币汇率经过效应的研究,发现人民币升值不能改善美国与中国的贸易状况,但能改善日本与中国的贸易状况;其差别的原因就在于贸易定价的不同。     

Unequal factor prices and incomplete specialization in a Heckscher-Ohlin model of endogenous growth

Two-factors, two-goods Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory predicts that under certain circumstances factor prices equalize if countries are incompletely specialized. If at least one country is completely specialized no factor-price equalization obtains. Different factor rewards and free trade, however, are not automatically linked to complete specialization: in a Heckscher-Ohlin model of endogenous growth where the countries differ in their individual discount rates, a situation of incomplete specialization and different factor rewards will result.     

The law of one price and the modelling of disaggregated trade flows

This paper argues that the application of a differentiated good model to disaggregated commodity trade, and in particular to primary commodity trade, is feasible. Price data for as narrowly defined a commodity as wheat are shown to violate the law of one price. An Armington-type model which allows prices of a commodity to vary by supplier is then applied to world wheat trade. Two issues concerning the Armington model are addressed. First, it is shown that the theoretical implications of the model are plausible in the case of a disaggregated commodity. Second, as an example, 1973–1974 wheat trade flows and prices forecast by an Armington-type model are shown to be consistent with actual trade patterns and prices.     

Factor-Price Equalization By Trade In Joint and Non-Joint Production

Sans joint products, relative factor prices do determine relative goods prices. Free trade in goods thus can hope to equalize factor returns when this relationship is monotone and therefore uniquely reversible. However, when joint production obtains, often the same relative factor prices can entail an infinity of relative goods prices depending upon the composition of tastes and demand. In consequence, trade's equalization of goods prices is compatible with factor-returns inequality. Generic and singular relationships are described.     

Marginal Intraindustry Trade and Labor Adjustment

In the context of Ethier's model of the division of labor, this paper accomplishes three tasks. First, it complements existing literature on the algebraic properties of marginal intraindustry trade (MIIT) measures by embedding one of these measures in a general equilbrium model. Consistent with the existing literature, it is found that change in the Grubel–Lloyd index provides systematically different economic information from change in the MIIT index. Second, it examines the connection between intraindustry trade and intra- industry adjustment. Here it is found that the informal assumption that intraindustry trade generates only intraindustry adjustment cannot be sustained. That is, intraindustry trade will generally induce interindustry adjustment. Finally, because intraindustry trade generates interindustry adjustment, increased intraindustry trade will generally induce long-run changes in relative factor prices. This suggests, given the prominence of intraindustry trade in OECD countries, that there may be problems with inference on the link between rade and wages undertaken in a strict Heckscher–Ohlin framework.     

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRADE ON A SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: AN ATTEMPTED SYNTHESIS*

The objective of this paper is to reformulate the terms of trade effect within a framework of national accounts in constant prices. The issue has been discussed by Professor R. C. Geary, Dr. G. Stuvel and others. In what follows the author proposes a new formula for deflating the net factor income from abroad and the net lending to the rest of the world. It is shown that the terms of trade effect which follows from the formula be expressed as a synthesis of Geary's and Stuvel's approaches. The author also shows that a similar approach be applied to the construction of the sector production account in constant prices. By formulating an appropriate deflator which is right for deflating factor incomes he concludes that the terms of trade arising from changes in inputs prices relative to output price be closely associated with the term which expresses the effect of productivity changes.     

AN OLIGOPOLISTIC HECKSCHER–OHLIN MODEL OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT*

We develop a 2 × 2 × 2 trade model in which one of the two sectors is perfectly competitive and the other is oligopolistic. The oligopoly sector consists of a given number of identical firms for each country, but they are free to locate in either country. The allocation of the firms between the two countries is endogenously determined, and changes in factor prices play a crucial role in establishing this equilibrium. Under this framework we examine the validity of factor price equalization, patterns of trade and gains from trade. Effects of technological progress and preference changes on firm locations are also analysed.     

Coca Substitution and Free Trade in Bolivia: The Pending Crisis

This paper uses the factors proportion model of production and trade with ten inputs to analyze the potential impact of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) on the coca substitution program in Bolivia. With six crops including coca, the model produces comparative statics elasticities of changing prices on factor prices and output. Results show that the coca substitution program with free trade will result in large income redistribution in the coca‐producing region as a result of increased competition from larger and more efficient economies. Increased subsidies and institutional changes will be needed to sustain the coca substitution program in the long run.     

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

Micro Convergence and Macro Convergence: Factor Price Equalization and Per Capita Income

Factor price equalization implies the equality of prices of the same productive factors across countries owing to free trade. The present paper examines the relationship between factor price equalization and the equality of per capita (per worker) incomes in the contexts of the static Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and the dynamic two-sector neoclassical growth model. Factor price equalization is shown to be neither necessary nor sufficient for equality of per capita incomes across trading countries.     

Carbon pricing and terms of trade effects for China and India: A general equilibrium analysis

Using country-specific dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, this paper estimates carbon prices in China and India, and compares the effects of carbon pricing policies under terms of trade effects. Estimated carbon prices are higher in China due to differences in emission intensity and in the rate of deployment of new technologies in the models. Differences in carbon prices open up the possibility of carbon trading between the two countries to achieve mitigation objectives. Further, under assumptions about different exchange rate regimes and international fossil fuel prices, the effects of carbon pricing policies on the two economies are mostly similar in terms of direction but, expectedly, different in terms of magnitude. Terms of trade effects could exacerbate carbon pricing effects to a greater degree in China as the country is significantly more dependent than India on external trade and investment. Policymakers should factor in terms of trade effects while designing or evaluating carbon pricing policies in the two countries.     

Imports and the structure of retail markets

Abstract We construct a model of trade with heterogeneous retailers to examine the effects of trade liberalization on retail market structure, imports and social welfare. We are especially interested in investigating the transmission of lower import prices into consumer prices and the effects of retail market regulation. The paper shows that changes in import prices may have large effects on consumer prices and import volumes when changes in retail market structure are taken into account, and that restrictions on retailing, as they occur in several countries, may significantly alter this transmission mechanism by reducing imports and raising consumer prices.     

要素价格与中国制造业出口技术结构——基于省级动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

文章基于2002-2008年省级面板数据,运用系统广义矩(System GMM)估计法从国家和地区两个层面就劳动力、资本和原材料等要素价格上涨对制造业出口技术结构的影响进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,要素价格上涨在国家层面上对出口技术结构表现出显著的"倒逼"效应,即要素价格上涨有利于我国对外贸易增长方式的转变,但要素价格上涨对我国东、中、西部地区出口技术结构升级的影响不同。从动态视角看,要素价格上涨所体现出的"倒逼"效应越来越小,而其表现出来的"倒退"效应越来越明显,即要素价格上涨越来越成为企业本身发展的成本负担。     

Welfare effects of monetary policy in an economy with vertical production and trade: An analysis based on the perspective of local currency pricing

By incorporating the factor of firms' asymmetric price setting behavior into the two-country model with vertical production and trade, we analyze how one country's monetary policy affects the welfare of both countries. We show that an expansionary monetary policy has (i) a beggar-thyself effect if the ratio of the non-expanding country's intermediate goods firms that set their export prices in the local currency is significantly low and (ii) a prosper-thy-neighbor effect in our model regardless of the ratio of either country's intermediate goods firms that set their export prices in the local currency.