A simultaneous discrete choice model of labor supply and wages for married women in Switzerland

A simultaneous model of female labor supply and wages is estimated. The labor supply model is formulated as a trichotomous discrete choice model in order to take into account the bimodal distribution of observed working hours. For women without observed wages the probability of choosing the observed work category is integrated over all values of the wage. The model is estimated using a sample of married women in Switzerland. The budget constraint is constructed by computing the disposable income for each hours point, taking into account the Swiss income tax system. The estimation results imply relatively modest wage elasticities of expected labor supply for working women. On the other hand the elasticity of the participation probability with respect to wages for nonworkers is twice as large. The magnitude of the income elasticities is comparable to other studies. The wage elasticities obtained with two alternative estimation procedures are considerably lower. These results show that wage elasticities crucially depend on how the problem of unobserved wages is solved.     

Gender differences in the volatility of work hours and labor demand

This paper examines the role of heterogeneity in a real business cycle model, which traditionally has not fully captured the relative volatility of hours to output. Men and women have different cyclical volatilities in hours worked, which is robust to different filtering methods. This empirical regularity is used to motivate a standard RBC model augmented to allow for two different agents following Jaimovich et al. (2013). These two agents have identical utility functions, but face different elasticities of labor demand due to their different complementarities with capital. These estimated elasticities find that women are more complementary to capital. The calibrated model generates the cyclical volatility of work hours by gender and for the total hours worked that matches the U.S. data better than the traditional representative agent model. I then explore other extensions to this model including investigating the stability of the estimated labor demand elasticities and allowing for various Frisch elasticities of labor supply. This paper demonstrates that allowing for even broad levels of heterogeneity in a simple framework can increase the model’s tractability with the data. Since gender is important to explain U.S. business cycle dynamics, we need to carefully consider heterogeneity when analyzing counter-cyclical economic policy, as it may not have symmetric effects across assorted groups.     

Asymmetric labor supply

The estimation of labor supply elasticities has been an important issue in the economic literature. Yet all works have estimated conditional mean labor supply functions only. The objective of this paper is to obtain more information on labor supply, estimating a conditional quantile labor supply function. We use a sample of prime age urban males employees in Brazil. Two stage estimators are used as the net wage and nonlabor income are found to be endogenous to the model. Contrary to previous works using conditional mean estimators, it is found that labor supply elasticities vary significantly and asymmetrically across hours of work. While the income and wage elasticities at the standard work week are zero, for those working longer hours the elasticities are negative.     

Cultural Factors in Women's Labor Force Participation in Chile

Abstract

This article analyzes determinants of female participation in the Chilean labor force using classic determinants such as age, education, marital status, and number of children. The results indicate that the greater a woman's education level, the greater her labor participation; that older women participate more, though the rate of growth of this effect is decreasing; and the number of children that a woman has is negatively correlated to her decision to participate in the labor force. The article also examines machismo and other cultural values that influence female labor participation. The evidence suggests that the more the women have internalized machista and conservative cultural values, the less they participate in the labor market. Finally, the article concludes that the existence of these cultural factors as a group more than compensates for the positive effect of human capital variables and is statistically associated with low female labor participation in Chile.     

Unilateral Divorce for Women and Labor Supply in the Middle East and North Africa: The Effect of Khul Reform

ABSTRACT

This contribution investigates whether the introduction of Khul, Islamic unilateral divorce rights for women, helps to explain recent dramatic increases in women's labor supply in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries over the 1980–2008 period. It shows, using data for eighteen countries, that Khul reform increased the labor force participation of women relative to men. Furthermore, we find evidence that the effect of Khul is larger for younger women (ages 24–34) compared to older women (ages 35–55). Younger women increased their labor force participation by 6 percent, which accounts for about 10 percent of the increase in their labor force participation from 1980 to 2008.     

Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

The Anatomy of the Extensive Margin Labor Supply Response*

We estimate how labor force participation among married women in Sweden responded to changing work incentives implied by a reform in the tax and transfer system in 1997. Using rich, population‐wide, administrative data, we estimate an average participation elasticity of 0.13, thereby adding to the scarce literature estimating participation elasticities using quasi‐experimental methods. We also highlight that estimated extensive margin responses necessarily are local to the observed equilibrium. Among low‐income earners, elasticities are twice as large in the group with the lowest employment level, compared with the group with the highest employment level.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE 1978 PREGNANCY DISCRIMINATION ACT ON FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY*

This article analyzes the effects of the 1978 Pregnancy Discrimination Act (PDA) on the labor force participation rates of married women by estimating a dynamic model of labor force participation. Results show that the PDA increased the labor force participation rate of pregnant women by 8.2 percentage points, of women with a child less than one year old by 3.4 percentage points, and of women with older children by 1.5 percentage points. Counterfactual policy simulations show that the provision of unpaid leave will increase the labor force participation rate of women with older children by an additional 3.7 percentage points.     

Family ties and employment behavior: The role of financial intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on labor participation and employment type in China. Although existing studies examine these effects separately, we investigate the effects of both factors in one model. We give empirical evidence to support earlier arguments that family ties negatively affect labor force participation and positively affect self‐/family‐employment behavior and that financial development positively affects labor force participation. Departing from the extant literature, our results overall indicate a compensating effect of financial intermediaries for family ties in labor participation and employment type. We further argue that there are gender, urban/rural, and age differences in the role of financial intermediaries. The effect of financial intermediaries on the strength of family ties is more relevant for female, rural, and younger people compared to male, urban, and older people.     

Indeterminacy and multiple steady states with sector-specific externalities

This paper studies a two-sector model with aggregate and sector-specific external effects in production and inelastic labor supply. We first characterize the existence, uniqueness and multiplicity of the steady states as well as their welfare properties. We particularly focus on the CES production functions and show that the steady state is generically either unique or there are exactly two. A simple geometrical methodology enables us to characterize the local dynamics of the steady state. We show that in order to get indeterminacy, the presence of both aggregate and sector-specific external effects is needed, along with low capital–labor elasticities of substitution and high, but bounded from above, elasticities in intertemporal consumption. We perform a sensitivity analysis and show that indeterminacy emerges for parameter values in line with those used in calibrations of standard RBC models, that is for unitary elasticities of input substitution and of intertemporal substitution in consumption.     

Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes

We build a life cycle model of labor supply that incorporates changes along both the intensive and extensive margin and use it to assess the consequences of changes in tax and transfer policies on equilibrium hours of work. We find that changes in taxes have large aggregate effects on hours of work. Moreover, we find that there is no inconsistency between this result and the empirical finding of small labor elasticities for prime age workers. In our model, micro and macro elasticities are effectively unrelated. Our model is also consistent with other cross-country patterns.     

UNANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CALIFORNIA'S PAID FAMILY LEAVE PROGRAM

We examine the effect of California paid family leave (CPFL) on young women's labor force participation and unemployment, relative to men and older women. CPFL enables workers to take at most 6 weeks of paid leave over a 12‐month period in order to bond with new born or adopted children, or to care for sick family members or ailing parents. The policy benefits women, especially young women, as they are more prone to take such a leave. However, the effect of the policy on overall labor market outcomes is less clear. We apply difference‐in‐difference techniques to identify the effects of the CPFL legislation on young women's labor force participation and unemployment. We find that the labor force participation rate, the unemployment rate, and the duration of unemployment among young women rose in California compared to men (particularly young men) and older women in California, and to other young women, men, and older women in states that did not adopt PFL. The latter two findings regarding higher young women's unemployment and unemployment duration are unanticipated effects of the CPFL program. We utilize robustness checks as well as unique placebo tests to validate these results.(JEL H43, J13, J18, J48)     

The labor-force participation of married women in the Soviet Union: a household cross-section analysis

Approximately 80% of women in the Soviet Union ages 15-54 years are employed outside the home. To identify the impact of demographic and economic variables on the high rate of labor force participation among Soviet women, data from an income survey of 1016 2-parent families of emigrants to Israel were analyzed. It was hypothesized that differences in participation rates among Soviet women correspond to differences in other sources of family income, wage rates and market conditions, level of education, and family household conditions, with response to changes in economic variables mediated by the role played by persuasion and social pressure in encouraging women to participate. Overall, 89.3% of the women in the sample were labor force participants. Nonparticipants were, as expected, from families with higher levels of other income. The personal qualifications of nonworking wives were considerably lower than those of working wives, with nonworking wives averaging 9.4 years of schooling compared with 13.2 years for working wives. Offered wages for working wives averaged 69 kopecks/hour in contrast to 40-50 kopecks/hour for nonworking women. A maximum-likelihood functional estimation of participation rates whoed significant coefficients for family income (negative), expected wages and education (positive), and residence in a large city (positive). The coefficients for residence in a medium-sized city, existence of a private plot, presence of nonworking men in the household, occupational status of the husband, and total number of children were insignificant. The supply of hours of work was backward-bending. The results suggest that Soviet women reach the decision to participate in the labor force through consideration of the same factors as their counterparts in nonsocialist countries. The analysis further indicates that, at present levels of fertility and exogenous conditions, the participation rate in the Soviet Union will not decrease. However, policies designed to raise the fertility level, including better facilities for children and more support for women who leave the labor force to raise young children, could ease labor force participation among soviet women.     

Does work pay in France? Monetary incentives, hours constraints, and the guaranteed minimum income

This paper uses a representative sample of individuals on France's main welfare program (the Revenu Minimum d'Insertion, or RMI) to estimate monetary incentives for employment among welfare recipients. Based on the estimated joint distribution of wages and hours potentially offered to each individual, we compute potential gains from working in a very detailed manner. Relating these gains to observed employment, we then estimate a simple structural labor supply model. We find that potential gains are almost always positive but very small on average, especially for single mothers, because of the high implicit marginal tax rates embedded in the system. Employment rates are sensitive to incentives with extensive margin elasticities for both men and women usually below one. Conditional on these elasticities, simulations indicate that existing policies devoted to reducing marginal tax rates at the bottom of the income distribution, such as the intéressement earnings top-up program, have little impact in this population due to their very limited scope. The negative income tax (Prime pour l'emploi), seems to be an exception.     

Gender Inequalities in Labor Market Outcomes of Informal Caregivers near Retirement Age in Urban China

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impacts of unpaid family care on labor supply and earnings of women and men near retirement age in urban China. Using the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variable approaches, it finds that grandchild care is negatively associated with both women's and men's labor force participation, while there are no effects for eldercare. For women caregivers, caring for grandchildren substantially lowers paid labor hours compared to noncaregivers. No significant relationships are found between eldercare and paid labor hours of women workers. For men workers, neither grandchild care nor eldercare is significantly associated with labor hours. The study also finds no statistically significant relationships between grandchild care and labor earnings for either women or men. Eldercare, however, is positively associated with the earnings of men workers.     

New estimates of labour supply elasticities for married women in Canada 1996–2005

In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income at the household level to compute the marginal tax rates faced by each individual. We then use these marginal tax rates to compute net own-wage, spouse-wage, and nonlabour income. We show how the magnitude of the estimated elasticities varies depending on whether net or gross wages and income are used in the estimation procedure, and quantify biases caused by using average tax rates instead of marginal tax rates. Finally, because marginal tax rates vary significantly over the sample, we use quantile regressions to compare elasticities at different points of the hours distribution. Overall, our results show that public policies now have, on average, less scope for influencing hours of work than 10 years ago. However, the quantile results show that wives working fewer hours per week are more sensitive to changes in their own or spouses’ wages.     

Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of China’s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about key historical developments in China’s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7% in 1988–1995, when the labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995 to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995–2002 when the unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women, those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou, and show the same patterns of change over time.     

Labor Force Participation and Educational Attainment in the United States

The objectives of this paper are twofold. Aggregate labor force participation rates in the United States are described focusing on educational attainment. A model is developed for decomposing aggregate labor force participation rates for men and women from 1994 to 2014 from a unique perspective by focusing on changes in educational attainment and on changes in the labor force behavior. The findings presented here indicate that men’s aggregate labor force participation rates declined during the 20-year period at all levels of educational attainment, due primarily to changes in population shares. A different picture emerges regarding women. For women with high school or some college or associate degree, it was changes in labor force behavior that dominated changing aggregate labor force participation rates. For women with the lowest and highest levels of educational attainment, less than high school or at least a baccalaureate degree, it was changes in their population shares that drove changes in aggregate labor force participation rates.     

Social norms and female labor force participation in urban China

This study investigates the impact of social norms on the labor supply decision of married women in urban China. Our estimation results indicate that men raised by non-working mothers are more likely to support traditional gender roles, are more averse to having working wives, and tend to be less productive or less willing to engage in housework than other men. Consequently, the labor force participation rate of married women with non-working mothers-in-law is 5–18 percentage points lower than that of married women with working mothers-in-law in urban China.     

Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records

We show that the effects of taxes on labor supply are shaped by interactions between adjustment costs for workers and hours constraints set by firms. We develop a model in which firms post job offers characterized by an hours requirement and workers pay search costs to find jobs. We present evidence supporting three predictions of this model by analyzing bunching at kinks using Danish tax records. First, larger kinks generate larger taxable income elasticities. Second, kinks that apply to a larger group of workers generate larger elasticities. Third, the distribution of job offers is tailored to match workers' aggregate tax preferences in equilibrium. Our results suggest that macro elasticities may be substantially larger than the estimates obtained using standard microeconometric methods.