International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada

The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by implementing quantitative easing, or large‐scale asset purchases, when its conventional policy rate reached the zero lower bound. We assess the international spillover effects of this quantitative easing program on the Canadian economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework, by considering a counterfactual scenario in which the Federal Reserve's long‐term asset holdings do not rise in response to the recession. We find that U.S. quantitative easing boosted Canadian output, mainly through the financial channel.     

美国二次量化宽松货币政策研究

2010年11月3日,美联储第二轮量化宽松政策（QE2）正式启动。其主要内容为在维持0-0．25％利率水平条件下,从当日起至2011年6月份前,每月购买750亿美元的长期国债,总购买量为6000亿美元。此举意在降低长期利率,提高通胀预期,降低失业率,促进美国经济尽快复苏。本文主要分析QE2对美国的作用和对中国的影响,并从对冲流动性角度分析中国应对量化宽松政策应采取的措施。     

全球量化宽松货币政策及其实施效果

货币政策、创新与传导机制在利率市场化环境下,中央银行通过公开市场操作调整短期利率至目标水平,这属于传统意义上的货币政策。美国、欧元区、日本和英国的中央银行在制定货币政策中介目标时,盯住的基准利率分别为联邦基金利率、主要再融资利率、隔夜拆借利率和短期国债回购利率。这些利率虽名称各异,但均为短期同业拆借利率。中央银行通过调控同业拆借利率可以直接影响商业银行的融资成本,商业银行向企业和居民借贷时,会将中央银行的意图传递至整个经济体,最终实现调控经济的目的。如果一国中央     

量化宽松:逻辑选择与反思

纵观整个货币政策史,货币政策大多都是围绕着数量进行调节,但是量化的尺度则是个李约瑟难题。人有悲欢离合,月有阴晴圆缺。自然,宏观经济亦逃不出繁荣与衰退轮回的宿命。     

美国量化宽松货币政策对中国溢出效应研究——基于贸易渠道分析

基于2008年10月~2014年3月的30个工业行业出口面板数据,运用FGLS方法,根据不同工业行业要素密集度考量美国量化宽松货币政策对我国工业出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策通过人民币汇率对我国资本密集型、劳动密集型和技术密集型行业的出口呈现出显著负面影响,通过国际大宗商品价格指数对我国劳动密集型和技术密集型行业出口产生显著负面影响,美国实际工业产出对我国三类工业行业出口呈现出显著正面影响。     

Capital Flows During Quantitative Easing: Experiences of Developing Countries

A potentially important side effect of quantitative easing (QE) by the United States Federal Reserve was the expansion of capital flows into developing countries. As a result, there were widespread concerns that reversing QE might trigger financial instability in those countries. The central objective of our article is to empirically investigate this important issue by (1) examining the effect of QE on capital flows into developing Asia and (2) identifying the most significant factors that influence the effect of a QE taper tantrum on exchange rate instability. We find that capital flows into developing countries during QE were at least comparable to those before the global financial crisis. We also find that capital flows during QE and the symptoms of those capital flows such as high inflation, credit expansion, and the deterioration of the current-account balance accounted for much of the destabilizing effect of a QE taper tantrum. While there is no evidence that macroprudential policies directly reduce the destabilizing effect, they can nevertheless be useful preemptive measures.     

量化宽松货币政策的理论、实践与影响

全球金融危机已使全球经济陷入衰退,为应对危机各国央行不断降息。随着短期利率接近于零,美、日、英等主要国家的央行转而求助于"量化宽松货币政策",即通过购买长期国债等方式向经济注入巨量的流动性。全球大规模采取量化宽松政策在历史上尚属首次,对世界经济和中国经济都将产生难以估量的影响,对此有必要进行深入的分析。为此,本文在对量化宽松货币政策的理论基础进行分析的基础上,进一步研究了日本量化宽松政策实践的经验与教训及其影响,并提出相应的政策建议。     

量化宽松货币政策的理论、实践与影响

全球金融危机已使全球经济陷入衰退,为应对危机各国央行不断降息.随着短期利率接近零,美、日、英等主要国家的央行转而求助于"量化宽松货币政策",即通过购买长期国债等方式向经济注入巨量的流动性.全球大规模采取量化宽松政策在历史上尚属首次,对世界经济和中国经济都将产生难以估量的影响,对此有必要进行深入的分析.为此,在对量化宽松政策理论基础进行分析的基础上,进一步研究了日本量化宽松政策实践的经验与教训,以及当前量化宽松政策对全球经济的的影响.     

对美国量化宽松货币政策的经济学分析

2010年底美国在经济低迷、失业率居高不下的背景下,推出的第二轮量化宽松货币政策不能从根本上改变美国经济现状及通缩趋势,但会给其他国家的经济造成负面影响,增加通胀压力。我国应使外汇储备多样化,控制好国内金融市场,推动人民币国际化,防止美国量化宽松货币政策可能带来的泡沫风险。     

量化宽松货币政策的退出策略

去年此时,正值全球金融海啸爆发之时.随着各国纷纷实施所谓量化宽松货币政策,向金融体系甚至经济体系注入大量的流动性.     

量化宽松对世界新兴经济体影响及中国对策

在对主要发达国家实行的量化宽松货币政策措施基础上,通过分析量化宽松货币政策传导机制,得出量化宽松政策将会降低新兴经济体债券收益率、促使新兴经济体货币升值、加大新兴经济体流动性过剩压力、加大新兴经济体通货膨胀压力等结论,认为这些不利影响必然会影响到中国经济稳定。因此,我国应提高人民币存贷款利率、完善人民币汇率形成机制、加强对国际资本流动的监管、调整存款准备金率,以应对中国可能面临的危机。     

The 1932 Federal Reserve Open-Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing

The $1 billion open-market operation conducted by the Federal Reserve, at the height of the Great Depression, was a successful precedent to the recent Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. The 1932 program entailed large purchases of medium- and long-term securities over a 4-month period. An event study analysis indicates that the program dramatically lowered medium- and long-term Treasury yields. A segmented markets model is used to analyze the effects of the open-market purchases on the economy. A significant degree of financial market segmentation is estimated, and partly explains the observed upturn in output growth. Had the Federal Reserve continued its operations and used the announcement strategy used in QE1, the Great Contraction could have been attenuated earlier. Our historical analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve in 2008 had a good predecessor to its actions.     

美国二次"量化宽松"对中国的影响及其对策研究

本文从多个角度探讨了美国二次量化宽松货币政策的出台背景,认为它是美国实现经济复苏的不二选择,而较低的物价水平则是该政策得以实施的重要前提。本文的研究认为,本轮量化宽松政策将使中国房地产价格、股票价格进一步上涨,中国将面临输入性通胀压力,人民币实际汇率升值压力也将会加大,中国外汇储备也将面临大幅缩水风险。最后,针对二次量化宽松的影响,本文提出了相应的对策建议。     

货币政策信贷渠道的经济区域效应研究——基于我国31个省际面板数据的经验证据

本文以2005年1月—2010年12月我国31个省份的月度数据为研究样本,运用面板向量自回归模型(Panel-VAR)对我国货币政策信贷渠道的传导效果进行了实证检验,研究结果表明:我国货币政策信贷渠道的传导效果存在明显的区域差异,对于经济发达地区来说,信贷投放在促进经济高速增长的同时,并不会带来显著的通货膨胀压力;而对于经济较发达地区和落后地区而言,信贷的投放并未有力推动经济的增长,反而会带来较为明显的通货膨胀压力。     

The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Nonfinancial Manufacturing Firms in Turkey

This study investigates the trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission in Turkey by using a large panel of corporate firms and includes detailed information on balance sheets and income statements of firms that regularly reported to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey during the period 1996-2008. The study suggests that the composition of external finance differs considerably across firm types based on size and export performance under tight and loose financial conditions. Small and medium-size manufacturing firms and firms with a low export share are less likely to have access to bank finance, especially in tight periods. In addition, financially constrained firms with limited access to bank finance (small, low-export-share firms) tend to substitute trade credits for bank loans more aggressively in tight periods as monetary policy tightens. The large volume of trade credit on firms' balance sheets and its positive response to contractionary monetary shocks imply that the trade credit channel might subdue the traditional credit channel of monetary transmission.     

量化宽松货币政策的主要目的是降低长期利率

量化宽松货币政策通过降低长期利率而发挥作用,较为有效地缓解了流动性危机,其传导机制与常规货币政策的传导基本相同。宏观模型表明,量化宽松货币政策对经济增长和通货膨胀都具有积极影响,这种影响并不仅仅限于金融危机期间。     

时间压力下的注册会计师行为——来自一个全国性事务所的调查证据

审计判断是一个复杂的认知活动,对周围的环境非常敏感。在中国,时间压力作为影响审计绩效的环境因素,其重要性日益上升。目前有关时间压力的有限研究主要是针对外国审计市场背景进行的。通过对我国一个全国性事务所的调查,我们发现,近年来我国注册会计师面临的时间压力越来越大。时间压力阻碍了审计程序的实施,低报审计时间,降低了审计质量。