内生经济增长理论框架下的市场失效与财政政策

内生经济增长理论认为,知识和人力资本的外部效应与创新带来的垄断势力推动经济增长的同时,也会带来非帕雷托最优的经济增长收入分配的不公平,将阻碍经济增长;加快知识和人力资本积累、促进技术进步以及缓解收入分配不公平的财政政策能纠正市场失效,使长期经济增长达到社会最优.     

Does Precommitment Raise Growth? The Dynamics of Growth and Fiscal Policy

We develop an endogenous growth model driven by externalities from both private and public capital. The government levies distortionary taxation to finance a publicly provided consumption good and public infrastructure. Firms face adjustment costs. We compare the optimal and time-consistent policies in a linear-quadratic approximation of the model. Although the time-consistent equilibrium is sub-optimal in terms of ex-ante intertemporal welfare, it yields higher long-run growth and welfare, through an accumulation of assets by the state and a cut in government consumption.     

积极财政政策:理论、实践与政策调整

积极财政政策来源于西方财政理论与实践，这一理论对我国财政理论与实践有着十分重要的影响。结合中国实际情况，积极财政政策应如何调整。     

财政政策对经济增长和收入分配的长期影响效应分析

政府财政政策对经济增长和收入分配有不同的影响,其中,政府消费性支出和投资性支出均对经济增长有正的促进作用,但政府支出却加大了居民收入分配的差距;税收对我国经济增长的影响均为负,其中,间接税缩小了居民收入分配差距,而直接税却拉大了居民的收入分配差距。     

我国稳健财政政策中的赤字问题

稳健财政政策中的财政赤字问题存在较多争议,本文从理论上分析了稳健财政政策并不排斥财政赤字,并对我国1998年以来财政政策的方向进行了定量测算,提出我国稳健财政政策的关键是将财政收入、财政支出增长速度控制在经济潜在增长速度。     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

European Monetary and Fiscal Policies after the EU Enlargement

This paper examines the design of macroeconomic policies after Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) have joined the EU. We consider scenarios with and without CEECs being members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and analyze consequences of different intermediate targets for the European Central Bank. For the fiscal policy variables, we assume that the governments of incumbent and new members either refrain from pursuing active stabilization policies or follow either non-cooperative or cooperative activist fiscal policies. Different scenarios are simulated with the macroeconomic McKibbin–Sachs Model (MSG2 Model), and the resulting welfare orderings are determined. They show that the advantages and disadvantages of different policy arrangements depend strongly on the nature of the shock the economies are faced with. Additional macroeconomic noise resulting from the CEECs' membership of the EMU does not seem to be too much of a problem.     

Fiscal Policy and Long-run Growth in R&D-based Models with Endogenous Market Structure

This paper shows that in a model of endogenous growth that does not exhibit the scale effect, taxes on consumption and labor income and the level and composition of public expenditure have no effect on steady-state growth. The only fiscal instruments that affect steady-state growth are taxes on asset and corporate income. In line with standard intuition, tax rates and public expenditure have level effects on income per capita. These results emphasize that although growth is endogenous, in the sense that it is determined by the model and it is subject to policy action, instruments that work by changing market size do not affect it. Effective growth-enhancing policies operate through the interest rate.     

促进河北省区域经济协调发展的财政对策研究

河北省区域经济发展表现为各设区市经济发展规模严重失衡、居民收入水平严重失衡、经济发展投入严重失衡。受特殊省情、国家战略和发展趋向的约束,河北省财政应着力加强发展型财政建设,统筹运用财税体制、支出和投融资政策工具,推动区域经济协调发展。     

积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异——基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析

本文利用面板数据模型分别考察了积极财政政策对我国东、中、西部私人投资增长和差异的影响.分析表明,积极财政政策对东、中、西部的私人投资具有一定的正向影响,从而证实了积极财政政策的有效性.本文通过地方财政各项支出对私人投资产生的影响分析,表明东、中、西部要根据自身的经济发展水平来安排财政支出的结构.     

财政可持续视阈下的地方政府债务现状分析与规制策略

地方政府债务的存在,严重制约了地方财政的可持续发展,甚至还会引发金融危机和经济危机。文章基于财政可持续角度分析地方政府债务发展现状,认为在现阶段要规制地方政府债务负面影响,必须强化地方政府债务风险识别,积极制定短期应对措施和深化长期制度建设。     

论中国转型期的财政政策

中国实施的积极财政政策，对保持经济平稳增长，缓解通货紧缩，优化经济结构，促进就业和促进区域经济均衡发展等方面发挥了积极的作用。随着中国宏观经济形势的变化，以及考虑到防范公共风险，积极财政政策应作相应的调整。自2005年起，中国开始实施稳健的财政政策，其核心是适度减少财政赤字和长期建设国债的规模，并对财政分配结构进行调整。中国未来一段时期特别是“十一五”前期应继续实施稳健的财政政策。     

农村政策性金融与财政支农关系

政策性金融的产生及其作用的发挥,实际上就是财政职能不断强化的一个产物,改革开放中后期以来,我国农村政策性金融体系的功能趋于弱化,其原因在于:财政实力被过多地削弱,公共产品资源配置不够合理,过分倚重商业性金融的支农效应而弱化了财政对农村政策性金融的支持。为此,应当健全财政对农村政策性金融持续投入机制与补偿机制,协调好财政政策与货币政策的关系,财政还应承担起对政策性金融业务监督管理的责任。     

我国积极财政政策"紧缩效应"的形成机制及其检验

积极财政政策的扩张性效果依赖经济周期的阶段性,积极财政政策也有可能通过货币需求的利率渠道和汇率渠道等,产生对于实际产出的紧缩影响.本文利用误差修正模型和时变参数模型,通过估计货币需求相对于实际产出的弹性系数,发现我国的财政政策仅在1996年前体现出显著的"紧缩效应",而在1996年后"紧缩效应"逐渐减弱和消失,这说明在我国宏观经济调控中,积极财政政策和稳健货币政策的组合方式和期限结构发挥了比较稳定的政策效果.     

我国生态环境保护和治理的财政政策选择

环境的公共产品性质和外部性，决定了它应该成为政府财政投资的重点。因而财政政策对环境保护和治理的影响极大。从总体上看，我国的财政政策在支持生态环境保护和治理中发挥了重要作用。但由于财政政策在设计上存在着缺陷，致使其在生态环境建设中的支持作用未能完全发挥。基于此，本文提出了完善我国生态环境可持续发展的财政政策建议。     

Global Financial Crisis and ASEAN: Fiscal Policy Response in the Case of Thailand and Indonesia

Sound macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, plus quick and forceful fiscal policy responses contributed to Thailand's and Indonesia's economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This paper reviews the impacts of the recent global financial crisis on the Thai and Indonesian economies, and identifies the characteristics of the fiscal stimulus package in each economy and their implications to counter the negative impact of the global financial crisis.     

Macroeconomic Policy Design in the European Monetary Union: A Numerical Game Approach

Optimal economic reactions of European policy-makers on exogenous shocks are determined by simulating a global macroeconomic model under different institutional arrangements. In particular, it is investigated whether discretionary or rule-based policies and whether non-cooperative or cooperative policies for Europe result in a better performance as measured by intertemporal objective functions. The results show that the answers to these questions depend strongly on the nature of the shock to which European economies are exposed. For a negative supply shock, rule-based policies dominate, whereas for a negative demand shock, cooperative fiscal policy-making within the European Monetary Union gives the best results.     

Fiscal Policy,Public Debt and the World Crisis

This study summarizes a theory of the origin of the current world economic crisis and the role of fiscal policy in mitigating its effect. The perspective is dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis. Overall, the model analysis suggests a strong case for fiscal policy if the monetary authority is unable/unwilling to close the output gap. This remains the case, even when explicitly taking into account public debt dynamics.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

税收、财政支出与内生经济增长

构建了基于财政支出、税收的内生经济增长模型,并推导出在给定税收、财政支出政策的变化路径时,经济会达到"竞争性分散均衡",税率与经济增长存在"倒-U"型关系,政府投资性支出与经济增长之间正相关。利用中国省际面板数据进行实证检验显示,在我国经济运行中,总产出、消费、投资、政府投资性支出、税率、利息率、工资水平之间存在长期均衡关系。我国宏观税率为28.63%时达到最优值,政府投资性支出对经济增长率存在正向影响,但不同区域间存在较大差异性。