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1.
The rise in unemployment in the 1970s and its subsequent persistence have challenged the conventional wisdom embodied in the standard Phillips curve, namely that equilibrium unemployment is fairly constant over time. This paper attempts to explain the apparent non-constancy of equilibrium unemployment by developing and estimating a structural model in which equilibrium unemployment is endogenous and results from the interactions of wage bargaining and the price and employment determination of firms. We find that the three major determinants of equilibrium unemployment are tax rates, the replacement rate and the real interest rate. The rise in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s was mainly due to a rise in the first two factors. That equilibrium unemployment remained high when tax rates and the replacement rate were reduced in the 1980s and early 1990s is attributed to the rise in real interest rates during this period. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, we investigate the existence of infrequent shocks and the degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment over the period 1976-2004. We first apply individual Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests and fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. When two changes in level are incorporated, we again fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. Since individual unit root tests normally lack power, we employ the recently developed panel LM unit root tests with up to two changes in level. Only in this case are we able to reject the joint unit root hypothesis in favor of regime stationarity. Computation of half-lives through impulse-response functions indicates the high degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment. These results contrast with the common belief among scholars that U.S. state unemployment is closer to the natural rate paradigm than to the hysteresis paradigm. 相似文献
3.
This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK employment,namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empiricalnatural rate of unemployment (NRU). Our analysis suggests thatthe UK NRU has remained reasonably stable through time and thatthe medium-run swings in unemployment are due, instead, to veryprolonged after-effects of persistent (transitory but long-lasting)shocks. We argue that (i) past UK labour market shocks haveprolonged after-effects on unemployment due to interactionsamong different lagged adjustment processes in the labour market;(ii) many of the important shocks that have hit the UK labourmarket over the past 25 years have been persistent; and (iii)the persistence of the shocks is complementary to the persistenceof the lagged adjustment processes in generating movements ofUK employment. 相似文献
4.
This article employs a recently developed time-series econometric technique to examine the magnitude and persistence of unanticipated changes in real output on unemployment rates by race and gender. Through the use of generalized impulse response analysis, we measure the extent to which the behavior of unemployment rates of white males, black males, black females, and white females differ in response to real output shocks. The results suggest that, while real output growth reduces the unemployment rate of all demographic groups, the effect is larger and more persistent for blacks than whites and for males than for females. The findings are particularly important for understanding the demographic impacts of policy initiatives aimed at inducing changes in real output growth. 相似文献
5.
Regional disparities and the Italian NAIRU 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper we estimate the Italian NAIRU using annual datafor the period 1951-96. We find evidence consistent with aggregatewage setting in Italy depending only on the rate of unemploymentprevailing in the Northern and Central areas of the country.There is evidence supporting the presence of a long-run cointegratingrelationship among unemployment in the Northern and Centralareas, the tax wedge, the real interest rate and a measure ofunion power. The response of unemployment to exogenous shocksis sluggish, suggesting that persistence is an important featureof the Italian labor market. 相似文献
6.
Jacques H. Drèze 《De Economist》2002,150(1):1-18
This lecture addresses the issue of growing inequality of labour incomes in the EU. In this lecture, it is observed that through higher unemployment at downward rigid wages, the market position of low-skilled workers has deteriorated over the past quarter-century in Western Europe and that European countries have failed to develop an efficient instrument of income insurance on behalf of low-skilled workers. Wage subsidies are such an instrument. Furthermore, it is argued that labour market integration in an economic union like the EU entails externalities, resulting in underprovision of insurance and that coordination or matching grants could overcome this second inefficiency. On these empirical and theoretical grounds, this article proposes the organisation at EU level of a scheme of matching grants for low-skilled labour, whereby a share of national wage subsidies to low-skilled labour would be financed by the EU under suitable funding. 相似文献
7.
In the aftermath of the Great Recession 2008/2009 European youth unemployment rose sharply from below 4.2 m in 2007 to more than 5.6 m young people under 25 unemployed in the EU28 countries in 2013. The youth unemployment rate expanded from 15.5 in 2007 to 25.5 in 2013. Beyond the consequences for individuals youth unemployment as a mass phenomenon is potentially menacing the stability of democratic societies. Hence there are good reasons to fight youth unemployment by any means. The paper analyses the specific structure and causes of youth unemployment. Although youth unemployment is also influenced by individual factors like insufficient qualification, we show that country-specific factors - institutions, traditions and characteristic structures - are of high importance in explaining the huge disparities between European countries. Using panel data estimates with specific country and time fixed effects we show that especially the Mediterranean countries responded to the economic downturn in a specific way. However, the high correlation of changes in the youth and adult unemployment rates across countries points to the fact that not only structural factors but also business cycle effects are important for explaining the sharp increase in the youth unemployment rate in Europe. The rise in joblessness is in fact closely related to macroeconomic slackness. Therefore, we argue that a two-handed approach combining institutional improvements with growth stimulating measures is needed to overcome the problem. 相似文献
8.
The paper reviews the unemployment problem in Europe. It showsthat while there is a good deal of heterogeneity in Europeanunemployment experience, a 'European model' of high and persistentunemployment characterizes many of the core continental economies,in contrast to the low unemployment experience of the USA. Theexplanation that this difference is due to a common skill-biasedshock interacting with more rigid labour-market features inthe European case is reviewed, as is the suggestion that theEuropean experience is exceptional on account of the more stringentmacro-environment created by devotion to tight monetary policies.The policy outlook is one in which strongly expansionary economicpolicies seem unlikely to be launched and most of the burdenof fighting unemployment will be borne by labour-market reforms;the bad side-effects of these could be cushioned by resort towage subsidies, supporting a 'European' bias in favour of equality.The 35-hour week is judged to be an unlikely remedy. 相似文献
9.
In an attempt to explain the different wage and unemployment responses in mainland Europe and the US to a fall in demand for low-skilled labour, we present a model with two levels of skills and two classes of goods. We analyse the response to skill-biased technical change in two distinct labour market regimes. A trade-off between wage divergence and unemployment of skilled and unskilled workers occurs. Skill-biased technical change turns out to have a different impact in both regimes, due to a different working of the chimney effect. 相似文献
10.
Summary For the Netherlands there is a great deal of leeway to make up in empirically estimating laboursupply functions. In this article
a macro supply function for females is estimated where, for the first time in the Netherlands, income data are used. A positive
relation between labour force participation and income is found. As for the role of unemployment a significant discouraged
worker effect is discovered. Testing timingversus persistence in labour force participation results in empirical evidence for the theory stressing persistence.
The authors would like to thank Joop Hartog, Arie Kapteyn, Jacques Siegers and Peter Kooreman for their comments on an earlier
version of this article. 相似文献
11.
美国在大萧条期间的极为不对称的谈判势力结构(垄断资本家一家独大),就决定了其经济衰退必然表现出产量的大幅度下降、较高的失业率及其持久性,由当时的金融制度及其管理技术上的缺陷导致的货币供给不足和悲观的市场预期带来的流动性下降仅仅是大萧条的辅助原因。 相似文献
12.
Summary This review essay of Edmund Phelps' Structural Slumps.The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Assets argues thatStructural Slumps is an important book, which enriches neoclassical economics and has substantive things to say about the persistence of high unemployment rates in many industrial countries. However, the book does not substantiate Phelps' own claims that the structural approach represents a new paradigm in economic theory and that the new paradigm is the only convincing explanation for persistently high levels of unemployment. With respect to the first claim it is argued that the structuralist approach is not fundamentally different from neo-classical macroeconomics. With respect to the second claim it is illustrated that the empirical evidence is inconclusive as far as the alleged superiority of the structuralist approach is concerned.We would like to thank Lex Hoogduin, Simon Kuipers and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies. 相似文献
13.
Tito Boeri 《De Economist》2009,157(2):215-228
Summary Many academic papers were still being written on mass unemployment in Europe. While, unemployment in the EU15 was falling
dramatically. Not only academics, but also European workers at large did not seem to appreciate these labour market developments.
I offer two explanations for this puzzling deterioration of workers perceptions of the labour market in spite of disappearing
unemployment: (i) labour market risk increased, and (ii) employment growth occurred at the cost of stagnating labour productivity.
This means that the new labour market offers a worse risk-return combination. Strategies to address these issues are discussed
in the final section of the paper.
This paper provides an extended version of the first Willem F. Duisenberg Lecture, held at the University of Amsterdam on
February 28, 2008. I am particularly grateful to NIAS for this opportunity and to Petry Kievit for having greatly improved
my English. 相似文献
14.
Torben M. Andersen 《De Economist》2012,160(2):117-140
Flexicurity labour markets are characterised by flexible hiring/firing rules, a generous social safety net, and active labour market policies. How can such labour markets cope with the consequences of the Great Recession? This paper takes a closer look at this question considering the case of Denmark. It is found that employment adjustment is not particularly large in international comparison, but a larger burden of adjustment is along the extensive (number of employees) rather than the intensive (hours) margin. The level of job creation is high, and remains so despite the crisis, although job creation is pro-cyclical and job-separation counter-cyclical. As a consequence most unemployment spells remain short. Comparative evidence does not suggest that flexicurity markets are more prone to persistence. Crucial for this is the design of the social safety net and in particular the active labour market policy. However, it is a challenge to maintain the efficiency of the activation system in a period with high unemployment. 相似文献
15.
ANDREA BENVENUTI 《Australian economic history review》2011,51(3):297-317
This paper examines Australia's approach to Western European integration in the 1950s. While superficially supportive of steps towards greater Western European cooperation, the Menzies government had an ambivalent attitude towards the integration process. Ministers and officials in Canberra recognised the importance of a strong and prosperous Western Europe, but the formation of a tightly knit Continental grouping also posed a number of major challenges to the makers of post‐war Australian foreign policy. The Menzies government soon began to wonder whether attempts to create supranational bodies in Continental Europe accorded with Australian political, economic, and security interests. 相似文献
16.
The paper studies the labor markets of 23 transition countries from eastern and central Europe—Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, East Germany, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Yugoslavia. It uses new micro-data from a large number of surveys on over 200,000 randomly sampled individuals from these countries for the years 1990–1997. The microeconometric structure of unemployment regression equations in the nations of eastern Europe appears to be similar to the industrialised west. Estimation of east European wage curves produces a local unemployment elasticity of between –0.1 and –0.3. This is somewhat larger in absolute terms than has been found elsewhere. On a variety of attitudinal measures, eastern Europeans said they were less contented than their western European counterparts. The strongest support for the changes that have occurred in eastern Europe is to be found among men, the young, the most educated, students, and the employed and particularly the self-employed. Support for market reforms is particularly low amongst the unemployed who were found to be particularly unhappy on two well-being measures. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 364–402. Department of Economics, Dartmouth College, New Hampshire 03755; and NBER. 相似文献
17.
This paper makes use of two well-known UN studies of the integrated spinning and weaving of cotton cloth in order to examine the relationship between technology and employment in developing countries. In particular the paper: (a) considers the choice of technology in the production of a given volume of cotton cloth in Western Europe, Latin America and Africa; (b) estimates and discusses the elasticity of capital-labour substitution in such production: and (c) examines some aspects of job creation, factor prices and economic efficiency. The variation in ‘optimal’ technology choice across wage areas is found to be rather narrow and to lie in the upper part of the capital-labour spectrum. The variation in profitability across technologies, however, is found to be much less than that of employment in all three areas. The limited range of ‘optimal’ technologies is partly explained by the elasticity of substitution which lies between 0.2 and 0.25 for Europe; 0.25 and 0.33 for Latin America; and 0.33 and 0.50 for Africa. A certain prodigality in the use of both men and machines in the developing regions is also part of the explanation of the relative similarity in optimal technology choice in the three wage areas considered. In the light of this prodigality and the low elasticity, consideration is given to the question of increasing developing country employment in a state enterprise and a private firm respectively. Not surprisingly, it is found that it would pay to exploit the scope for substitution in the state factory if more employment were sought, although the difference in total costs by ignoring such scope could be relatively small. It is further found that the magnitude of factor price changes required to induce a profit-maximizing businessman to provide the required volume of employment could be dauntingly large. It is noted that increased efficiency in the developing textile industry could result in increased unemployment. 相似文献
18.
Frederick Van Der Ploeg 《De Economist》1992,140(1):16-44
Summary An adverse supply shock hits a two-country Mundell-Fleming world and causes unemployment and a higher cost of living. The optimal budgetary policies under non-cooperative and under international policy coordination are then contrasted under a regime of floating exchange rates, a regime of managed exchange rates with hegemony (such as the EMS), and a symmetric regime of fixed exchange rates (such as the EMU). The welfare loss depends on unemployment, real wage income and budgetary imbalance. Attention is also paid to the effects of indexation of wages on the cost of living and of interactions between Europe and the US. The results shed some light on the short-run stabilisation aspects of the proposals of the Delors Committee for economic and monetary union in Europe.This paper was presented at the conference on European Economic Integration: Towards 1992, organised by the NBER and the CEPR, August 3-4 1989, Cambridge, MA. The author is grateful for the useful comments of the participants and thanks the managing editor and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. This paper was written as part of a SPES project on Macroeconomic Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe, supported by grants from the Commission of European Communities (no. 0016-NL (A)), whose help is gratefully acknowledged. I also wish to acknowledge financial support from the CEPR research programme in International Macroeconomics, supported by grants from the Ford Foundation (no. 890-0404) and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (no. 88-4-23). 相似文献
19.
RODRIGO VERGARA 《The Developing economies》2012,50(1):1-24
This paper analyzes the impact of two anti‐crime programs adopted in Chile in the late 1990s. The first (the so‐called Quadrant Plan) is aimed at enhancing the quality of police work and the second (the Secure County Plan), at encouraging the involvement of the community in designing specific projects aimed at reducing the crime rate. It is found that only the Quadrant Plan has been successful in terms of reducing crime rates and has caused an impact through the effect of arrests in deterring crime. The Secure County program does not appear to have had any incidence on crime rates. It is also found that crime is associated with unemployment and that there is persistence in crime rates. 相似文献
20.
《The Scandinavian economic history review / [the Scandanavian Society for Economic and Social History and Historical Geography]》2012,60(3):159-167
Abstract While the rest of the world enjoyed relative prosperity during the 1920s, Northern Europe remained depressed. In particular, Britain and Scandinavia suffered relatively high rates of unemployment. In this paper, we investigate the links between the North European Depression and currency overvaluation. The role of currency overvaluation has received much attention in the British case, but has been relatively neglected in the economic history of Scandinavia (in the English language, at least). 相似文献