避免亏损的盈余管理程度:上市公司与非上市公司的比较

本文以非上市公司盈余管理程度作为基准,运用参数估计的方法,对股票市场是否提高了公司盈余管理程度的问题进行研究。研究结论显示,1998年至2004年我国上市公司与非上市公司每年都存在避免亏损的盈余管理;在上市公司中,盈余管理公司比例为15.87%,它们提高ROA数据0.0122;在非上市公司中,盈余管理公司比例则只有5.49%,它们提高ROA数据0.0009。上市公司盈余管理频率大约为非上市公司的3倍,平均盈余管理幅度大约为非上市公司的13倍;两类公司盈余管理程度差异随着时间的推移而不断增大,因为非上市公司盈余管理程度在年度上的分布比较稳定,而上市公司盈余管理程度则随着时间的推移而不断增大。研究结论表明,股票市场提高了公司的盈余管理程度。     

我国上市公司盈余管理时间选择的实证研究

本文研究了我国上市公司在不同季度进行盈余管理的时间选择行为。我们首先采用可操控性应计利润来识别上市公司中期报告中的盈余管理行为,然后进一步通过考察季度间盈余反转来识别。研究结果表明,我国上市公司虽在各个季度都存在盈余管理行为,但第四季度利润中包含了比其他季度更多的盈余管理行为。特别的,巨额冲销的公司在第四季度进行盈余管理调低利润,前三季度表现欠佳而年末好转的公司在第四季度通过盈余管理调高利润。     

避免亏损与公开增发盈余管理的识别与估计:来自聚束设计的实证证据

基于2002-2017年中国A股上市公司披露的加权平均净资产收益率(ROE)数据,本文识别出上市公司在0%(避免亏损)和6%(公开增发股票)两个阈值处的盈余管理动机,并对盈余管理频率和幅度进行估计。首先,数据证实A股上市公司ROE分布图在阈值0%和6%处存在明显的左侧样本缺失、右侧样本聚集现象,表明公司确实为满足政策要求在阈值附近进行了盈余管理,将公司ROE从阈值左侧操纵至右侧。其次,本文用聚束设计方法估计出3.18%的上市公司为避免汇报亏损而进行盈余管理,占真实亏损公司的59.25%,进行盈余管理的公司将ROE平均提高了2.115个百分点。为了成功公开增发而进行盈余管理的上市公司比例虽然仅有0.28%,但占到了实际股票公开增发公司的58.13%,平均盈余管理幅度为0.524个百分点。最后,异质性分析表明:2016年以前上市公司为了避免亏损而进行盈余管理的动机一直很稳定,2002-2005年是为了满足公开增发条件而进行盈余管理最严重的年份;动机强烈的ST企业和杠杆率高的企业进行盈余管理的频率更高。     

管理层股权激励对盈余管理的影响研究

本文选取已经实施股权激励的上市公司为研究对象,并寻找行业相同、规模相近的上市公司作为配对样本进行配对T检验,对管理层股权激励是否诱发盈余管理进行分析,得出管理层在基准年度下调盈余的结论,并经回归分析证实。本文分析管理层控制权对盈余管理的影响,得出结论是被激励董事的比例与盈余管理程度呈正比例关系,总经理包含在激励计划在内的股权激励公司的盈余管理程度相对大,说明管理层为实现自身利益最大化,在基准年度会对报告盈余做出下调处理,而且管理层股权激励程度越大,盈余管理程度越大,而独立董事的比例没有通过显著性检验,没有明显的反比例关系。     

上市商业银行盈余管理的实证研究

选取我国A股上市的商业银行2005年至2010年的年度盈余数据,利用直方图和统计检验来研究我国上市商业银行的盈余管理行为,探索银行管理当局是否会为了避免负盈余而进行盈余管理.每股收益的直方图显示,银行管理当局会为了避免负盈余而进行盈余管理;统计检验也进一步支持了这个结论.我国上市商业银行通过把小额负盈余转变为小额正盈余来进行盈余管理     

公司并购、盈余管理与高管薪酬变动

基于前人关于上市公司盈余管理影响因素的研究,本文分析了主并方公司并购收益与并购完成后公司盈余管理之间的关系,以及两者对高管货币性薪酬变动的相互作用机制。本文以2007至2012年我国沪深两市发生重大并购的A股上市公司为研究对象,结果发现:在并购完成后,并购收益与公司盈余管理存在负相关关系,即并购收益越低,公司在并购完成后第一、二年进行正向盈余管理的程度越高;盈余管理与并购收益对高管薪酬的变动存在着相互替代的关系,即并购收益越低,盈余管理对促进高管薪酬增长的影响越大。本文的研究丰富了盈余管理和公司并购的理论内涵,并为监管部门以及投资者的决策提供了重要的经验证据。     

盈余管理与短期资产减值准备关系的实证研究

本文选取2009年—2012年我国A股的工业上市公司的数据,对上市公司盈余管理的动机与短期资产减值准备的关系进行了实证研究。研究发现:微利公司、配股达线公司倾向于少计提短期资产减值准备以避免亏损,亏损公司倾向于多计提减值准备进行盈余大冲洗,高盈利公司则利用资产减值准备进行利润平滑,而对于当年扭亏的上市公司则不存在利用短期资产减值准备进行扭亏的动机。     

盈余管理与短期资产减值准备关系的实证研究

本文选取2009年—2012年我国A股的工业上市公司的数据,对上市公司盈余管理的动机与短期资产减值准备的关系进行了实证研究。研究发现:微利公司、配股达线公司倾向于少计提短期资产减值准备以避免亏损,亏损公司倾向于多计提减值准备进行盈余大冲洗,高盈利公司则利用资产减值准备进行利润平滑,而对于当年扭亏的上市公司则不存在利用短期资产减值准备进行扭亏的动机。     

股权激励制度下的盈余管理研究

本文以2009—2011年度首次公布股权激励方案的上市公司为研究对象,分别采用截面琼斯模型、修正的截面琼斯模型、业绩匹配模型对样本公司的可操纵性应计利润进行计算,并以计算结果的绝对值作为样本公司盈余管理程度的指标,运用配对样本T检验的方法验证了股权激励制度下高管盈余管理行为的存在性。     

中国亏损上市公司第四季度盈余管理的实证研究

本文对中国A股上市公司是否在第四季度进行盈余管理以避免当年亏损或下一年亏损进行了实证研究,发现上市公司的确会在第四季度进行盈余管理来实现当年扭亏为盈或者调低利润,为下一年扭亏做好准备。因此审计师与投资者对上市公司第四季度的财务数据应该高度关注,并提高对会计信息质量的鉴别能力。     

业绩预告披露与盈余管理研究

盈余管理存在的根本原因在于投资者与管理层之间的信息不对称。业绩预告作为上市公司未来经营成果、财务状况与现金流量的预测,在很大程度上会影响投资者对上市公司的评估及其投资决策。从业绩预告披露的特征方面出发,研究业绩预告披露与盈余管理之间的关系,包括业绩预告的性质、预告精确度、预告误差分别与盈余管理程度的关系,结果发现：发布业绩预告的公司,盈余管理水平更高。预告精确度以及预告期间与预测当期盈余管理水平正相关,预测误差与盈余管理水平负相关。当消息类型不同的时候,预测的强制性与否以及＂变脸＂对盈余管理水平的影响不同。结论支持了上市公司财务报告迎合业绩预告披露的说法。     

Non-GAAP Earnings and the Earnings Quality Trade-off

Using a large sample of earnings press releases by Australian firms, we compare multiple attributes of non-GAAP earnings measures with their closest GAAP equivalent. We find that, on average, non-GAAP earnings are more persistent, smoother, more value relevant, and have higher predictive power than their closest GAAP equivalent. However, the same set of non-GAAP earnings disclosures are also less conservative and less timely than their closest GAAP equivalent. The results are consistent with non-GAAP earnings measures reflecting a reversal of the trade-off between the valuation and stewardship roles of accounting inherent in accounting standards and the way they are applied. We also find that differences in several of these attributes between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings are more evident in larger firms, firms with lower market-to-book ratios, firms with a higher proportion of independent directors, and firms that report profits rather than losses. Our evidence is consistent with the argument that accounting standards impose significant amounts of conditional conservatism at some cost to the valuation role of accounting information. Non-GAAP earnings measures can therefore be seen as a response to the challenges faced by a single GAAP performance measure in satisfying the competing demands of value relevance and stewardship.     

Earnings Co-movements and the Informativeness of Earnings

We examine the informativeness of earnings in the presence of earnings co-movements. Many theoretical studies infer that the more a firm's earnings move with the market the less weight investors need to place on those earnings, thus rendering them less informative. On the other hand, managers have less opportunity to bias the earnings signal the more earnings co-move, making them more reliable. We measure earnings co-movement using an industry–firm pairing correlational technique. Overall our results show both the degree of co-movement and the ordering of earnings announcements impacts on the informativeness of earnings as indicated by earnings response coefficients. Earnings responses are larger for firms that report earnings before their most highly correlated industry peer, but the responses are reduced as earnings co-movement increases. We interpret our results to indicate that the more earnings co-move with an industry peer the less informative earnings become, but only when the peer firm is able to obtain information at a later date.     

Sustained Earnings and Revenue Growth,Earnings Quality,and Earnings Response Coefficients

We show that firms reporting sustained increases in both earnings and revenues have (1) higher quality earnings and (2) larger earnings response coefficients (ERCs) in comparison to firms reporting sustained increases in earnings alone. With respect to earnings quality, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have more persistent earnings, exhibit less susceptibility to earnings management, and have higher future operating performance. With respect to response coefficients, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have both higher ERCs and lower book value response coefficients, consistent with the implications of the Ohlson (1995, Contemporary Accounting Research 12, 661–687) model.JEL Classification: G12, M41     

The Effect of Earnings Forecasts on Earnings Management

We develop a theory of the association between earnings management and voluntary management forecasts in an agency setting. Earnings management is modeled as a "window dressing" action that can increase the firm's reported accounting earnings but has no impact on the firm's real cash flows. Earnings forecasts are modeled as the manager's communication of the firm's future cash flows. We show that it is easier to prevent the manager from managing earnings if he is asked to forecast earnings. We also show that earnings management is more likely to follow high earnings forecasts than low earnings forecasts. Finally, our analysis shows that shareholders may not find it optimal to prohibit earnings management. Earlier results rationalize earnings management by violating some assumption underlying the Revelation Principle. By contrast, in our model the principal can make full commitments and communication is unrestricted. Nonetheless, earnings management can be beneficial as it reduces the cost of eliciting truthful forecasts.     

Market Reaction to Multiple Contemporaneous Earnings Signals: Earnings Announcements and Future Earnings Guidance

We examine market reactions to contemporaneous announcements of current earnings and future earnings guidance for evidence on how investors trade off relevance and reliability. Current earnings are more reliable than future earnings guidance, but future earnings guidance may be more relevant for predicting future performance. We find that current earnings are more strongly associated with announcement-period returns than concurrently disclosed future earnings guidance, consistent with investors’ relative preference for reliability. We find similar return reactions to stand-alone earnings and to earnings released with guidance. In contrast, return reactions are lower for guidance announced simultaneously with current earnings than for stand-alone guidance.     

Earnings Virality

We examine the determinants and market consequences associated with earnings announcements going viral on social media, a phenomenon we label “earnings virality.” Using a comprehensive panel of historical Twitter data, we find that the typical earnings announcement receives relatively little social media coverage, but others go viral on social media, quickly reaching the feeds of millions of people. We find that viral earnings announcements generally have Twitter content that is more extreme in tone and contains less unique content. Further, earnings virality is positively associated with revenue surprises, investor recognition, retail investor ownership, and retail investor trading around the announcement. Earnings virality appears to be detrimental to markets, as it coincides with lower market liquidity and slower price formation. Overall, our evidence suggests that user-driven dissemination through social media platforms, when amplified and taken to extreme levels, may be harmful to markets.     

Earnings beta

Review of Accounting Studies - The literature on cash flow or earnings beta is theoretically well-motivated in its use of fundamentals, instead of returns, to measure systematic risk. However,...     

杠杆操纵:不为盈余的盈余管理动机

本文以我国A股上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了杠杆操纵与盈余管理之间的关系.研究发现,企业杠杆操纵压力越大(或曰杠杆操纵动机越强),其有利于控制账面杠杆率的盈余管理程度越大,且这一效应在非国有企业中更强,表明杠杆操纵动机确实是企业盈余管理的一种特殊动机.本文的研究不仅丰富和拓展了盈余管理动机方面的研究文献,从资产负债表信息出发研究盈余管理动机,揭示了出于杠杆操纵目的进行盈余管理的这种特殊动机;而且提示公司内外部治理主体尤其是投资者关注资产负债表信息质量,尽力甄别可能存在的杠杆操纵,准确认识企业债务风险水平和收益质量.     

Earnings Volatility and Earnings Prediction: Analysis and UK Evidence

This paper confirms that US evidence of a negative relationship between earnings persistence and earnings volatility applies to UK firms over the period 1991–2010. Our analytical framework highlights the possibility that this result may reflect downward estimation bias in earnings persistence (and persistence of cash flow and accruals components of earnings) related to transitory earnings elements. Out‐of‐sample forecasts, based on models estimated for earnings volatility quartiles, suggest significant improvement in earnings forecasts for lower volatility firms. The results also suggest that the negative association between earnings persistence and volatility may be due to both estimation bias and variation in core earnings persistence.