Combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets

The literature on equity markets documents the existence of mean reversion and momentum phenomena. Researchers in foreign exchange markets find that foreign exchange rates also display behaviors akin to momentum and mean reversion. This paper implements a trading strategy combining mean reversion and momentum in foreign exchange markets. The strategy was originally designed for equity markets, but it also generates abnormal returns when applied to uncovered interest parity deviations for five countries. I find that the pattern for the positions thus created in the foreign exchange markets is qualitatively similar to that found in the equity markets. Quantitatively, this strategy performs better in foreign exchange markets than in equity markets. Also, it outperforms traditional foreign exchange trading strategies, such as carry trades and moving average rules.     

Momentum or contrarian investment strategies: Evidence from Dutch institutional investors

This paper analyses investment strategies of three types of Dutch institutional investors - pension funds, life insurers and non-life insurers - over the period 1999-2005. We use balance sheet and cash flow data, including purchases and sales of equity, fixed income and real estate. We trace asset reallocations back to both active trading and revaluations and link investment decisions to firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables. Overall, our results indicate that all three investor types tend to be contrarian traders, i.e. they buy past losers and sell past winners. Especially pension funds showed this behaviour in the most turbulent part of the sample - the crash of 2002 and early 2003 - implying that these institutions have a stabilising impact on financial markets when this is needed most. Life insurers tend to be contrarian traders when they have a high proportion of unit-linked policies, while non-life insurers are contrarian when they have a more risky business model.     

Hidden liquidity: An analysis of order exposure strategies in electronic stock markets

Many stock exchanges choose to reduce market transparency by allowing traders to hide some or all of their order size. We study the costs and benefits of order exposure and test hypotheses regarding hidden order usage using a sample of Euronext-Paris stocks, where hidden orders represent 44% of the sample order volume. Our results support the hypothesis that hidden orders are associated with a decreased probability of full execution and increased average time to completion, and fail to support the alternate hypothesis that order exposure causes defensive traders to withdraw from the market. However, exposing rather than hiding order size increases average execution costs. We assess the extent to which non-displayed size is truly hidden and document that the presence and magnitude of hidden orders can be predicted to a significant, but imperfect, degree based on observable order attributes, firm characteristics, and market conditions. Overall, the results indicate that the option to hide order size is valuable, in particular, to patient traders.     

Profitability of momentum strategies in international markets: The role of business cycle variables and behavioural biases

The paper investigates whether business cycle variables and behavioural biases can explain the profitability of momentum trading in three major European markets. Unlike previous studies, the paper nests both risk-based and behavioural-based variables in a two-stage model specification in an attempt to explain momentum profits. The findings show that, although momentum profitability in European markets is unexplained by conditional asset pricing models, it is attributable to asset mispricing that systematically varies with global business conditions. In addition, behavioural variables do not appear to matter much. Thus risk factors, which are undetected thus far and are largely attributable to the business cycle, could explain the momentum payoffs in European stock markets.     

Currency momentum strategies

We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a significant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% per annum (p.a.) between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional risk factors, it is partially explained by transaction costs and shows behavior consistent with investor under- and overreaction. Moreover, cross-sectional currency momentum has very different properties from the widely studied carry trade and is not highly correlated with returns of benchmark technical trading rules. However, there seem to be very effective limits to arbitrage that prevent momentum returns from being easily exploitable in currency markets.     

An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article proposes a theoretical testable capital asset pricing model for partially segmented markets. We establish that if some investors do not hold all international assets because of direct and/or indirect barriers, the world market portfolio is not efficient and the traditional international CAPM must be augmented by a new factor reflecting the local risk undiversifiable internationally. We also introduce a suitable framework to test this model empirically. Using a sample of six emerging markets and three mature markets, we find that the degree of stock market integration varies through time and that most of the sample emerging markets have become more integrated in the recent years. The local risk premium for emerging markets represents the most important component of the total risk premium, but its relative importance has decreased recently. Differently, the total risk premium for developed countries is largely driven by global factors.     

Short-horizon regulation for long-term investors

We study the effects of imposing repeated short-horizon regulatory constraints on long-term investors. We show that Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall constraints, when imposed dynamically, lead to similar optimal portfolios and wealth distributions. We also show that, in utility terms, the costs of imposing these constraints can be sizeable. For a 96% funded pension plan, both an annual Value-at-Risk constraint and an annual Expected Shortfall constraint can lead to an economic cost of about 2.5–3.8% of initial wealth over a 15-year horizon.     

The trading behavior of institutions and individuals in Chinese equity markets

This paper employs a unique data set to analyze the trading behavior of 4.74 million individual and institutional investors across Mainland China. Results show that groups of individual investors with varying trade values (as proxies for wealth levels) engage in different trading strategies. Chinese institutions are momentum investors, while less wealthy Chinese individual investors at large are contrarian investors. The results also indicate that a small group of wealthiest Chinese individuals tend to behave like institutions when they buy stocks, and behave like less wealthy individuals when they sell. Furthermore, only the trading activities of institutions and of wealthiest individuals can affect future stock volatility, but those of Chinese individual investors at large have no predictive power for future stock returns.     

ADRs under momentum and contrarian strategies

Given the recent growth in the American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and the current general climate of globalization in world equity exchanges, this paper investigates the ADRs as a distinct group of stocks within the framework of momentum and contrarian strategies. It considers the entire body of the level III ADRs from January 1982 to December 2005 and provides an analysis of their performance under various momentum and contrarian strategies. The methodology that is employed draws upon and is an extension of Lo and Mackinlay [Lo, Andrew W. and A. Craig MacKinlay, 1990. When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction? Review of Financial Studies, v3 (2), 175–206.] and Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, Narasimhan and Sheridan Titman, 2001. Profitability of momentum strategies: An evaluation of alternative explanations, Journal of Finance, v56 (2, Apr), 699–720.]. The results indicate considerable support for the presence of the momentum and contrarian strategies in the ADRs market. The profitability of such strategies obviously runs counter to the efficient market hypothesis. These issues are elaborated upon and suggestions for further research are offered.     

Risk contagion among international stock markets

We develop a stochastic volatility model with jumps in returns and volatility to analyze the risk spillover from the U.S. market and the regional market to a number of European countries’ equity markets. The key advantage of this approach compared to the earlier approaches is that it enables us to identify jumps and investigate spillover of extreme events across borders. We find that a large part of the jumps in the local markets are due to the U.S. market and the regional market. The U.S. contribution to the variances is in general below the contribution from the regional market. In general, we observe an increasing integration during the last two decades, which, to some extent, can be related to the advancement of the European Union. Furthermore, we show that the identification of the jumps can be used as a useful signal for portfolio reallocation.     

The 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets

We study the 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets proposed by George and Hwang [George, T., Hwang, C.Y., 2004. The 52-week high and momentum investing. Journal of Finance 59, 2145-2176.]. This strategy produces profits in 18 of the 20 markets studied, and the profits are significant in 10 markets. The 52-week high momentum profits exist independently from the Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., 1993. Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for market efficiency. Journal of Finance 48, 65-91.] individual stock and Moskowitz and Grinblatt [Moskowitz, T.J., Grinblatt, M., 1999. Do industries explain momentum? Journal of Finance 54, 1249-1290] industry momentum strategies. These profits do not show reversals in the long run. We find that the 52-week high is a better predictor of future returns than macroeconomic risk factors or the acquisition price. The individualism index, a proxy to the level of overconfidence, has no explanatory power to the variations of the 52-week high momentum profits across different markets. However, the profits are no longer significant in most markets once transaction costs are taken into account.     

Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis

This paper investigates the return and volatility response of major European and US equity indices to monetary policy surprises by utilizing extensive intraday data on 5-min price quotes along with a comprehensive dataset on monetary policy decisions and macroeconomic news announcements. The results indicate that the monetary policy decisions generally exert immediate and significant influence on stock index returns and volatilities in both European and the US markets. The findings also show that press conferences held by the European Central Bank (ECB) that follow monetary policy decisions on the same day have a clear impact on European index return volatilities. This implies that they convey additional important information to market participants. Overall, our analysis suggests that the use of high frequency data is critical to separate the effect of monetary policy actions from those of macroeconomic news announcements on stock index returns and volatilities.     

An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets

This paper examines herding behavior in global markets. By applying daily data for 18 countries from May 25, 1988, through April 24, 2009, we find evidence of herding in advanced stock markets (except the US) and in Asian markets. No evidence of herding is found in Latin American markets. Evidence suggests that stock return dispersions in the US play a significant role in explaining the non-US market’s herding activity. With the exceptions of the US and Latin American markets, herding is present in both up and down markets, although herding asymmetry is more profound in Asian markets during rising markets. Evidence suggests that crisis triggers herding activity in the crisis country of origin and then produces a contagion effect, which spreads the crisis to neighboring countries. During crisis periods, we find supportive evidence for herding formation in the US and Latin American markets.     

Varying risk premia in international bond markets

Cochrane and Piazzesi [Cochrane, J.H., Piazzesi, M., 2005. Bond risk premia. American Economic Review 95, 138–160] use forward rates to forecast future bond returns. We extend their approach by applying their model to international bond markets. Our results indicate that the unrestricted Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) model has a reasonable forecasting power for future bond returns. The restricted model, however, does not perform as well on an international level. Furthermore, we cannot confirm the systematic tent shape of the estimated parameters found by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005). The forecasting models are used to implement various trading strategies. These strategies exhibit high information ratios when implemented in individual countries or on an international level and outperform alternative approaches. We introduce an alternative specification to forecast future bond returns and achieve superior risk-adjusted returns in our trading strategy. Bayesian model averaging is used to enhance the performance of the proposed trading strategy.     

International financial integration in Asian bond markets

With the development of international financial market, the degree of international financial integration increased significantly during the late 1980s and 1990s. A key factor underlying this process was the increased globalization of investments seeking a higher rate of return and the opportunity to diversify risk internationally. In this paper, we investigate the degree of international financial integration in Asia by examining the relationships amongst Asian bond markets by employing the advanced econometric technique of cointegration of error correction vectors. In other words, we propose the answers to the following questions. Firstly, what is the degree of international financial integration in Asian bond markets? Secondly, does this degree of integration significantly change after the 1997 Asian financial crisis?This study has a strong implication for investors, in particular, from the perspective of Australian or US investors, whether they do benefit from investing in Asian bond markets. In addition, understanding the extent of financial integration and monitoring its progress in the region is important for Asian central banks. In addition, increased international financial integration promotes financial development and hence enhances economic performance in the region.     

Rewards for downside risk in Asian markets

Distributional properties of emerging market returns may impact on investor ability and willingness to diversify. Investors may also place greater weighting on downside losses, compared to upside gains. Using individual equities in a range of emerging Asian markets, we investigate the potential contribution of downside risk measures to explain asset pricing in these markets. As realized returns are used as a proxy for expected returns, we separately examine conditional returns in upturn and downturn periods, in order to successfully identify risk and return relationships. Results indicate that co-skewness and downside beta are priced by investors. Further testing confirms a separate premium for each measure, confirming that they capture different aspects of downside risk. Robustness tests indicate that, when combined with other risk measures, both retain their explanatory power. Tests also indicate that co-skewness may be the more robust measure.     

An empirical analysis of Mexican and US closed-end mutual fund IPOs

We examine 135 Mexican closed-end fund IPOs and 370 Mexican non-fund IPOs that issued between 1994 and 2003 along with 217 contemporaneous US fund IPOs and document three primary results. First, we find that Mexican IPOs in the aggregate experience no significant underpricing, unlike their US IPO counterparts. Both Mexican and US IPOs experience significantly negative long-run performance. Second, Mexican closed-end fund IPOs experience positive long-run performance, significantly better than Mexican non-fund IPOs which experience negative long-run performance. Unlike Mexican fund IPOs, US fund IPOs experience negative long-run performance. Third, we find that both Mexican and US debt-backed closed-end fund IPOs significantly outperform equity-backed closed-end IPOs. In Mexico, debt-backed funds experience positive abnormal returns, compared to negative abnormal returns for Mexican equity-backed funds, US debt-backed funds, and US equity-backed funds.     

Time-varying market integration and stock and bond return concordance in emerging markets

We investigate the extent to which emerging stock market integration affects the joint behavior of stock and bond returns using a two-stage semi-parametric approach. Using a sample of 18 emerging markets, we find an unambiguous and robust link between emerging stock market integration and stock–bond return decoupling. We explain this with a decline in the segmentation risk premia in equities modeled by De Jong and De Roon [De Jong, F., De Roon, F.A., 2005. Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics 78, 583–613] that leads to increased demand for stocks and reduced or unchanged demand for bonds. Our findings deliver new insights into the financial liberalization and stock–bond comovement literatures.     

The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance and that country-specific mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Specifically, our baseline long-only strategies that exploit time-varying predictability provide four-factor alphas of 12–13% per year over the 1993–2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the skills of local versus Pan-European asset managers, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and time these local fund manager skills.     

The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets: An analysis using intraday data

This paper considers the Samuelson hypothesis, which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges, we find strong support for the Samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures. However, the Samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts. We also provide supporting evidence that the ‘negative covariance’ hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the Samuelson hypothesis. In addition, our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects.