The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on Emerging Markets： Quantitative Identification of Crisis in Continent-based Regions

This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, in the context of an influence of the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The 17 emerging stock markets and, for comparison, the U.S. stock market are investigated. A statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets, based on monthly logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes, is employed. The analyzed sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013. As there is no unanimity in the literature about the crisis periods in the continent-based regions, a formal statistical identification of crises is worthwhile to conduct. Furthermore, the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period in the context of contagion is examining. To address this issue, both standard contemporaneous cross-correlations and volatility-adjusted cross-correlations are applied. The results are consistent with the literature and confn＇m that tests for contagion based on cross-market correlations are problematic due to the bias introduced by changing volatility in market returns. As contagion can be confused with globalization, the globalization tests in the group of international investigated markets are employed. The results generally do not confirm a global world market integration effect, i.e. there is no reason to reject the research hypothesis of no globalization during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.     

The Risks and Earnings of Chinese Commercial Banks＇ Cross - business in Insurance -Empirical Research Based on Simulated Merger Method

商业银行跨业经营保险在理论上具有规模经济效应、范围经济效应和协同效应,但也可能带来经营风险的增加。采取模拟合并法,利用2005～2009年的数据对我国商业银行跨业经营保险的风险收益状况进行实证分析,结果表明：银行跨业经营保险具有风险分散效果,且一定比例的产险业务对于银行跨业经营保险达到最佳效果是必需的,建议通过对保险业务资产比重进行限制来防止银行因追求收益而增加自身的风险。     

Resettlement＇s impact on the domestic economy in lake restoration： a case study of Poyang Lake region

The Chinese government started a take restoration project in Poyang Lake region 10 years ago, and the expost mOnitor of the migrants＇ livelihoods was limited, This paper compares the composition difference of domestic income and domestic consumption between migration and non-migration villages in Poyang Lake region. The results show that the migrants＇ domestic income has increased in the last 10 years, which originated from the tncreasing trend of active and extensive rural labor migration, while the resettlement has not influenced the domestic income significantly. The resettlement stimulates younger farmers to work.far away from home whose wages contribute nearly 80% of domestic income, The resettlement decreases their savings due to higher expenditure of daily life for those who work far away from home, and higher expenditure of food for those who stay at home, losing cultivated lands with irrigation system for vegetable. On the other hand. the increase of rural labor migration leads the migrants who stay at home to have access to more cultivated lands for rice and cotton, and the farmers also apply more fertilizer in the same cultivated land for more agriculture products. The resettlement makes most of migrants spend their savings on the improvement of their housing conditions due to not enough governmental financial support for new building. After the analysis, some factors that influence migrants＇ income and consumption are discussed. The paper may contritbute to the building of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.     

The Fiscal Deficit, the Inflation and the Debt Crisis：Chen Yun＇s Philosophyon the Financial Policy and its Implications in Modem Times

“坚决不打赤字财政”,是陈云一贯而鲜明的主张,因为在他看来,财政赤字与通货膨胀密不可分。建国初期,我国人民饱受通货膨胀之苦,而“币值下跌、物价上涨的主要原因,是政府的财政赤字庞大”。因此,陈云力主财政安排留有余地,尽量避免出现赤字,尤其忌讳将赤字用于投资。在这一思想的主导下,计划经济时期我国财政预算保持平衡,物价基本稳定。新时期以来,我国经济体制和市场环境发生重大变化,财政赤字渐成常态,相应地物价亦呈不断上涨趋势。尽管近年来连年出现的财政赤字主要依靠发行公共债务来弥补,但这终究不是长久之计,当下的欧债危机警醒了我们,陈云提出的“建设规模的大小必须和国家财力物力相适应”是一条不变的真理。     

A ＂Paradox＂ in China＇s Environmental Management： An Argument From a Comparative Study on Waste Recycling Policies Between China and Japan

China appears to have a ＂paradox＂ in its environmental management policies. For example, China＇s recycling policies appear paradoxical. With its rapidly expanding economy, China is now the world＇s largest emitter of urban waste. Under such a situation, China is aiming to build up a recycling economy by enacting a number of related laws. Despite the development of waste recycling regulations, however, the load on the environment by continuously increasing waste has not reduced in China so far. What explains this seemingly paradoxical situation of waste recycling in China？ It has been pointed out in the previous study on China＇s climate change policies that environment protection falls under the rubric of sustainable development in China. The question here is whether the same story can be applied to areas other than climate change in China＇s environmental management. This paper examines it in the area of its waste recycling policy. This paper conducts an evaluation of waste recycling regulations in China by comparing it with the experience of Japan, China＇s next-door advanced country. It concludes that the waste recycling regulations in China do not primarily aim at reducing the environmental load by reducing the amount of waste but rather for the main purpose of recycling and reusing resources effectively for the sake of economic development.