Decision making and uncertainty: The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment

Heuristics have long been associated with problems of bias and framing error, often on the basis of simulation and laboratory studies. In this field study of a high‐stakes strategic decision, we explore an alternative view that heuristics may serve as powerful cognitive tools that enable, rather than limit, decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments. We examine the cognitive efforts of senior decision makers of an inexperienced multinational, as they assessed a potential acquisition in a politically hazardous African country. They applied a diversity of heuristics, some with clear building block rules, to build small world representations of this very uncertain strategic context. More expert individuals drew on experiential learning to build richer representations of the political hazard environment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers

Research Summary : How can strategic decision makers overcome inertia when dealing with change? In this article we argue that cognitive flexibility (i.e., the ability to match the type of cognitive processing with the type of problem at hand) enables decision makers to achieve significantly higher decision‐making performance. We show that superior decision‐making performance is associated with using semiautomatic Type 1 cognitive processes when faced with well‐structured problems, and more deliberative Type 2 processes when faced with ill‐structured problems. Our findings shed light on the individual‐level mechanism behind organizational adaptation and complement recent work on strategic inertia. In addition, our findings extend management studies that have stressed the relevance of cognitive flexibility for responding to the demands of increasingly open, flexible, and rapidly changing organizations. Managerial Summary : Humans are creatures of habits. We tend to prefer known courses of action over new ones. In many cases, habits are good. However, when things change in unpredictable ways, the past may not be good guidance for the future. We argue that “cognitive flexibility”—the ability of understanding when to rely on habits vs. when to explore new courses of action—enables managers to switch from a “fast” decision mode, based on habits, to a “slow,” more deliberate decision mode that facilitates the exploration of new courses of action. Managers high in cognitive flexibility reflect on the situation at hand, recognize and value diversity in viewpoints, and integrate such diversity in their own decision processes. By valuing diversity, they are more likely to overcome inertia.     

SIMILARITY JUDGMENTS IN STRATEGY FORMULATION: ROLE,PROCESS AND IMPLICATIONS

Similarity judgments are an important and distinct aspect of strategy formulation. They are manifest in strategic decisions and errors, and in the construction of analytic concepts such as strategic groups and relatedness in diversification. However, existing models of strategy formulation either assume away the process of making similarity judgments or regard it as unproblematic. This paper highlights the role of similarity judgments in strategy formulation, and discusses cognitive findings showing that decision makers’ assessment of similarity is not free from bias. The cognitive findings help construct a new process explanation for a wide range of apparently isolated strategic errors. The process explanation is contrasted and integrated with traditional explanations based on imperfections in decision inputs. Finally, in light of the cognitive findings, the methods and assumptions of existing approaches in strategy formulation research to the construction of analytic concepts are reexamined. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhancing mental models,analogical transfer,and performance in strategic decision making

Recent research suggests that managers often make strategic decisions in novel situations by utilizing past experiences to reason by analogy. However, there is substantial evidence that decision makers often fail to identify and apply knowledge about one situation to a similarly structured situation. Two experimental studies investigated the mechanisms impacting knowledge transfer from one managerial situation (the source) to an analogous situation. The results show that exposure to variation in the source situation improves transfer performance. Variation decreases performance in the short term but improves learning and increases analogical transfer. Higher performance on and systematic search of the source situation also increase transfer performance. These results yield important implications for enhancing analogical transfer in strategic decision making and for future research on reasoning by analogy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining Proactive Strategic Decision‐Making Flexibility in New Product Development

While strategic flexibility is widely accepted as a prerequisite for a firm's success, its application in strategic decision making to a firm's new product development (NPD) activities is limited to only a few studies. Furthermore, many organizations still have difficulties creating proactive strategic flexibility in their decision‐making processes. Past research studies have largely ignored the relationship between strategic decision‐making flexibility and firms' resources and/or capabilities and success in the context of NPD. This study advances strategic flexibility by adopting the proactive approach of NPD decision‐making flexibility and by examining its role in translating organizational resources and capabilities into NPD success. This study draws upon the resources, capabilities (i.e., flexibility), and performance framework to show how proactive strategic decision‐making flexibility plays a crucial role in developing new products that can create new opportunities and comply with market needs. Therefore, this research aims to (1) develop an operational definition of strategic decision‐making flexibility and (2) propose a framework to understand the drivers and the subsequent new product performance outcomes of strategic decision‐making flexibility. This study adopts the proactive perspective of strategic decision‐making flexibility and defines it as a capability that enables firms to develop NPD strategies to respond to future changes in the environment. The analysis, based on data collected from 103 European firms, shows that that the effects of long‐term orientation, strategic planning, internal commitment, and innovative climate on proactive strategic decision‐making flexibility are significant. The findings indicate specifically the roles of both champions and gatekeepers, who infuse a firm's knowledge with a clear understanding of its resources, constraints, and market needs, thereby enhancing decision makers' motivation to behave proactively to precipitate transformation. The results also reveal a positive association between proactive strategic decision‐making flexibility and NPD performance outcomes. As such, strategic flexibility provides firms with an ability to adapt to changing environments and to create new market opportunities, product, and technological arenas, and to deliver successful new products. When firms open new market, technological, and product arenas, they can easily foresee their new demands and changes and successfully deliver new products, meeting customer needs/demands, and offering benefits such as quality, cost, and timeliness. This study therefore provides a valuable reference point for future research in strategic decision‐making flexibility in NPD.     

Information Distribution,Utilization, and Decisions by New Product Development Teams

Typically, organizations use new product development processes composed of activities followed by decision points, where projects are continued or abandoned. A decision maker likely possesses some common information also held by other decision makers and some unique information (that only she/he possesses). If a team relies mainly on overlapping, or common, information, decisions may suffer, but if they share and utilize information originally possessed by a subset of individual members, better decisions can be made. In this paper, the authors designed and conducted four studies to examine the effects of information distribution and utilization on new product team decision‐making. In study 1, the findings show that team members tend to use information possessed by everyone (i.e., common information) but neglect critical information possessed only by one of them (i.e., unique information). This common information bias results in suboptimal new product continuation decisions. In study 2, the interplay between the common information bias and team commitment to the NPD project favored by unique information is examined. The results show that although commitment influences new product development team decisions, the common information bias is stronger. Study 3 was conducted to rule out an alternative explanation for the effect of information distribution—the perception of information importance. In study 4, the focal hypotheses were re‐tested using a different sample to add confidence in the findings.     

Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe

Scenario analysis is a qualitative tool for strategic policy analysis that enables researchers and policymakers to support decision making, and a systemic analysis of the main determinants of a business or sector. In this study, a scenario analysis is developed regarding the future development of the market of organic food products in Europe. The scenario follows a participatory approach, exploiting potential interactions among the relevant driving forces, as selected by experts. Network analysis is used to identify the roles of driving forces in the different scenarios, and the results are discussed in comparison with the main findings from existing scenarios on the future development of the organic sector.     

The impact of strategic dissent on organizational outcomes: A meta‐analytic integration

Research summary: Strategic dissent represents divergence in ideas, preferences, and beliefs related to ideal and/or future strategic emphasis. Conventional wisdom in strategic management holds that such differences in managerial cognitions lead to higher‐quality strategic decisions, and thus to enhanced firm performance. However, 4 decades of empirical research have not provided consistent findings or clear insights into the effects of strategic dissent. Hence, we analyze the relative validity of predictions about these effects from both social psychological theories of group behavior and information processing perspectives on decision‐making. Then, we conduct a meta‐analytic path analysis (MASEM) based on current empirical evidence. Synthesizing data from 78 articles, we put to rest the notion that strategic dissent leads to positive outcomes for organizations and estimate how negative its effects actually are. Managerial summary: Top management teams (TMTs) set the tone and direction for their firms in important ways. Top managers, however, often disagree over fundamental issues related to strategy. Such strategic dissent affects how important decisions are made, and thus how the firm performs. In more specific terms and contrary to popular belief, strategic dissent creates not only dysfunctional relationships among top managers, but also disrupts the process by which these managers exchange, discuss, and integrate information and ideas in making strategic decisions. In short, firms have not yet generated value through numerous perspectives, ideas, and opinions among their top managers. We discuss interventions that could prove helpful in efforts to benefit from having diverse cognitions in a TMT.     

THE EFFECT OF REPUTATION ON THE DECISION TO JOINT VENTURE

This paper focuses on the impact that reputation has on the decision to proceed with a strategic alliance. Employing reputation constructs adapted from the Fortune Corporate Reputation Survey, we manipulated a target firm’s reputation in an experimental design. The subjects were placed in the role of CEO of the partner firm and asked whether they would engage in the alliance. Findings indicate that (1) reputation is a multidimensional construct, (2) the personal information-processing characteristics of the decision-maker mediate the reputation effect and may suppress the reputation information, (3) subjects may compensate weaker elements of reputation for stronger ones when making decisions, (4) product and management reputation are the most important factors, and (5) reputation is a factor affecting the decision regardless of whether the proposed target is a supplier or a competitor. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences on strategic decision effectiveness: Development and test of an integrative model

This paper draws upon three broad perspectives on the strategic decision‐making process in order to develop a more completely specified model of strategic decision effectiveness in a different context, namely Egypt. The key variables in this model consist of three strategic decision‐making process dimensions (rationality, intuition, and political behavior); seven moderating variables concerning decision‐specific, environmental, and organizational factors; and strategic decision effectiveness as an outcome variable. A two‐stage study was conducted in which the first stage provided exploratory insights and the second stage investigated hypotheses on the impact of strategic decision‐making process dimensions on strategic decision effectiveness and the moderating role of broader contextual variables. The second‐stage study produced three major findings: (1) both rational and political processes appear to have more influence on strategic decision effectiveness than does intuition; (2) strategic decision effectiveness is both process‐ and context‐specific; and (3) certain results support the ‘culture‐free’ argument, while others support the ‘culture‐specific’ argument. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consequences of misspecified mental models: Contrasting effects and the role of cognitive fit

Research summary: Mental models, reflecting interdependencies among managerial choice variables, are not always correctly specified. Mental models can be underspecified, missing interdependencies, or overspecified, containing nonexistent interdependencies. Using a simulation model, we find that under‐ and overspecification have opposite effects on exploration, and thereby, performance. The effects are also opposite, depending on whether a manager controls all choice variables. The mechanism underlying our results is a feedback loop: misspecified mental models influence managerial learning about the effectiveness of choices; this learning guides how the environment is explored, which in turn, affects which information will be generated for future learning. We explore implications of these results for strategic management and introduce the notion of “cognitive fit” between the mental model of the decision‐maker and the strategic environment. Managerial summary: Managers often rely on mental models to guide their decision‐making. These mental models, however, are often misspecified, that is, more or less complex than the situation managers are facing. Using a simulation model, we study the consequences of such misspecified mental models. We find that the performance implications of misspecified mental models crucially depend on whether the manager controls all choice variables. We identify situations in which simpler mental models are better than overly complex ones, and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Antecedents and Outcomes of NPD Portfolio Success

Managing new product development (NPD) portfolios is difficult and little is known about how successful NPD portfolio management can improve overall firm performance. Despite regular calls in the literature for more research on NPD portfolio management, what successful NPD portfolio management means and how firms can achieve it remains unclear. For this reason, this paper combines theory and previous empirical findings to build a model of the antecedents and outcomes of NPD portfolio success. We generate and test 12 hypotheses with empirical data from 189 paired dyads in Dutch firms. Our results show that all three dimensions of NPD portfolio decision‐making effectiveness (i.e., portfolio mindset, focus, and agility) are associated with achieving the three dimensions of NPD portfolio success (i.e., strategic alignment, maximal NPD portfolio value, and portfolio balance), which in turn influences market performance. While a portfolio mindset and agility are related to all three dimensions of NPD portfolio success, focus is related only to strategic alignment and maximal value. No one dimension of NPD portfolio decision‐making effectiveness or portfolio success is sufficient to achieve overall market performance. We also found several unexpected findings with important implications. For example, portfolio balance, one recommended measure of portfolio success, has no direct link to market performance, but operates through the other two dimensions of NPD portfolio success, i.e., strategic alignment and maximal portfolio value. We conclude our paper with implications for further theory development and testing on successful NPD portfolio decision‐making, and with implications for managerial practice.     

Understanding the exploration–exploitation dilemma: An fMRI study of attention control and decision‐making performance

This paper studies the cognitive processes that enable decision makers to switch between exploitation and exploration. We use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a sample of expert decision makers to make two main contributions. First, we identify and contrast the specific brain regions and cognitive processes associated with exploitation and exploration decisions. Exploitation activates regions associated with reward seeking, which track and evaluate the value of current choices, while exploration relies on regions associated with attentional control, tracking the value of alternative choices. Second, we propose and test the idea that stronger activation of the brain circuits related to attentional control allows individuals to achieve better decision‐making performance as a result. We discuss the implications of these results for strategic management research and practice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

An experiment on spatial competition with endogenous pricing

Hotelling's (1929) principle of minimum differentiation and the alternative prediction that firms will maximally differentiate from their rivals in order to relax price competition have not been explicitly tested so far. We report results from experimental spatial duopolies designed to address this issue. The levels of product differentiation observed are systematically lower than predicted in equilibrium under risk neutrality and compatible with risk aversion. The observed prices are consistent with collusion attempts. Our main findings are robust to variations in three experimental conditions: automated vs. human market sharing rule for ties, individual vs. collective decision making, and even vs. odd number of locations.     

Tell me a story: The role of narrative transportation and the C-suite in B2B advertising

This research investigates stories about buyer-seller experiences in B2B advertising. In two studies, the authors explore the impact of stories and narrative transportation in advertising on decision makers’ attitudinal responses. In Study 1, findings from a Fortune 100 company’s buyer panel indicate that stories told using narrative advertising were positively related to the decision maker’s trust in the supplier, ability to form personal connections with the supplier and the tendency to advocate for the supplier. Moreover, the organizational status of the decision maker (C-suite versus non-C-suite executives) was examined. Results demonstrate that the effect of these relationships were stronger for C-level decision makers than non-C-level decision makers. In Study 2, depth interviews were conducted with C-level decision makers. Findings reinforce results from Study 1 and provide additional insight into C-level decision makers’ perspectives on stories and narrative transportation. Implications for how stories about buyer-seller relationships can benefit organizational decision making are discussed.     

Competitive forces and strategic choice decisions: an experimental investigation in the United States and Japan

Managers operate in a complex, uncertain environment and tend to form simplified models in order to cope with this environment and make competitive strategic decisions (i.e., cost‐leadership, differentiation, or focus). In this study, we use an experimental design to examine the strategic choice decision‐making process in firms located in the United States and Japan. We develop several main‐effect propositions regarding managerial selection of competitive strategies, depending on the competitive forces (buyer power, threat of substitutes, threat of new firm entry, and high intensity of rivalry) they are facing. We propose a main effect due to country of origin: Japanese managers prefer a cost‐leadership strategy more than American managers do. We also propose several interaction effects regarding cross‐national differences in strategy selection between Japanese and U.S. managers. To test our propositions, we collected experimental data from 316 U.S. executives and 459 Japanese executives. We assessed relative impacts of the competitive forces on strategic decision‐making using a multilevel regression analysis. The research findings indicated that high buyer power and high substitution threat were associated with a preference for cost‐leadership strategies, and Japanese managers were significantly more likely to prefer a cost‐leadership strategy than U.S. managers. We also found that, under conditions of high buyer power, U.S. managers were less likely than Japanese managers to enter a market with a differentiation or focus strategy. We found little support for other interaction hypotheses, suggesting points of similarity between U.S. and Japanese managers. We conclude with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications of our results. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incumbent and non-incumbent salesperson consultation in the pre-decision stage of organizational purchasing

Given the complexity (e.g., digitization, customization, and scale) of modern business solutions, salespeople increasingly seek to influence the pre-planning stages of buyer decision making to increase effectiveness. During the early stage of organizational buying, salespeople can align their firm's capabilities and expertise by offering input on problem definition, before a solution is sought. However, surprisingly little is known about the role of salespeople in the period before a buying firm decides to officially address a problem and seek vendor solutions. Thus, our research focuses on the inclusion of both incumbent salespeople (strong ties to the buying organization) and non-incumbent salespeople (limited, or non-existent, ties to the buying organization) in pre-decision phase information sourcing of buyers. Drawing upon theory from social network and problem solving literatures, we develop a contingency model to illustrate pre-decision phase conditions based on problem framing, structure, and urgency that make incumbent or non-incumbent salespeople more likely to be sources of information. We test our hypotheses across a series of scenario-based experimental studies conducted with purchasing managers. Our findings suggest situations where incumbent and non-incumbent salespeople have a greater likelihood of being positioned to engage in pre-decision stage planning with customers.     

STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING: THE CASE FOR INSTITUTIONAL INFLUENCES ON SCANNING BEHAVIOR

This study examined the relationship between perceptions of strategic uncertainty and environmental scanning behaviors. It has been postulated that the strength of this relationship will depend on the combined effect of the environmental constraints and the prevailing approach to strategic decision making. A sample of 141 medium-size Bulgarian companies, all of them operating in a highly constrained external environment and a business culture, characterized by a low degree of calculative strategic decision making, was used to test four hypotheses related to scanning behavior. The empirical findings of this study were then compared with the results of prior research on environmental scanning in the United States in order to draw conclusions for both the theory of scanning behavior and strategic management practice in various environments. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sample selection bias and Heckman models in strategic management research

Research summary: The use of Heckman models by strategy scholars to resolve sample selection bias has increased by more than 700 percent over the last decade, yet significant inconsistencies exist in how they have applied and interpreted these models. In view of these differences, we explore the drivers of sample selection bias and review how Heckman models alleviate it. We demonstrate three important findings for scholars seeking to use Heckman models: First, the independent variable of interest must be a significant predictor in the first stage of a model for sample selection bias to exist. Second, the significance of lambda alone does not indicate sample selection bias. Finally, Heckman models account for sample‐induced endogeneity, but are not effective when other sources of endogeneity are present. Managerial summary: When nonrandom samples are used to test statistical relationships, sample selection bias can lead researchers to flawed conclusions that can, in turn, negatively impact managerial decision‐making. We examine the use of Heckman models, which were designed to resolve sample selection bias, in strategic management research and highlight conditions when sample selection bias is present as well as when it is not. We also distinguish sample selection bias, a form of omitted variable (OV) bias, from more traditional OV bias, emphasizing that it is possible for models to have sample selection bias, traditional OV bias, or both. Accurately identifying the type(s) of OV bias present is essential to effectively correcting it. We close with several recommendations to improve practice surrounding the use of Heckman models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mapping knowledge management and organizational learning in support of organizational memory

The normative literature within the field of knowledge management has concentrated on techniques and methodologies for allowing knowledge to be codified and made available to individuals and groups within organizations. The literature on organizational learning, however, has tended to focus on aspects of knowledge that are pertinent at the macro-organizational level (i.e. the overall business). The authors attempt in this paper to address a relative void in the literature, aiming to demonstrate the inter-locking factors within an enterprise information system that relate knowledge management and organizational learning, via a model that highlights key factors within such an inter-relationship. This is achieved by extrapolating data from a manufacturing organization using a case study, with these data then modeled using a cognitive mapping technique (fuzzy cognitive mapping, FCM). The empirical enquiry explores an interpretivist view of knowledge, within an information systems evaluation (ISE) process, through the associated classification of structural, interpretive and evaluative knowledge. This is achieved by visualizing inter-relationships within the ISE decision-making approach in the case organization. A number of decision paths within the cognitive map are then identified such that a greater understanding of ISE can be sought. The authors therefore present a model that defines a relationship between knowledge management (KM) and organizational learning (OL), and highlights factors that can lead a firm to develop itself towards a learning organization.